FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY ECONOMICS SUBSIDIES. Christian Breyer Professor for Solar Economy Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland

Transcription

1 FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY ECONOMICS SUBSIDIES Christian Breyer Professor for Solar Economy Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland Finnish Society for Future Studies, Energiatulevaisuus Helsinki, January 19, 2016

2 Key questions for this presentation Why we have to substantially adjust our energy system? What may be the key technologies? Why these technologies and not others? What s about the economics of such future energy systems? What s about the role of subsidies? 2

3 What is the key problem? Climate Change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen. N. Stern, Economics of Climate Change,

4 IPCC mitigation in energy sectors source: IPCC, th AR Synthesis Report 4 Key insights: GHG emissions in the power sector to be zero by 2050 ALL new investments MUST fulfill this requirement net zero for ALL emissions in second half of 21 st century (targeted in Paris)

5 Heavy metal emissions (cancer deaths) Key insight: heavy metal emissions causing severe health damage are a tremendous and costly global health issue ~ killed people globally per year (based on German results) ~ killed people taking into account worse filter standards Ontario in Canada decided to phase-out coal due to very high subsidies in the health system (twice as high as the value of power) 5 source: PSI, Synapse; Greenpeace, 2013; IEA, 2013

6 Ecological Footprint decarbonised power systems are desperately needed Historic Collapse Pattern (Jared Diamond) Over Exploitation of Resources Climate Change Impact Non Adaptive Social Behaviour Military Conflicts Structural Change in Trade Routes source: Wackernagel, 2010; WWF, 2014 our performance is excellent, unfortunately under the wrong sign 6

7 Key questions for this presentation Why we have to substantially adjust our energy system? What may be the key technologies? Why these technologies and not others? What s about the economics of such future energy systems? What s about the role of subsidies? 7

8 Resources and Energy Demand Key insights: no lack of energy resouces limited conventional resources solar and wind resources need to be the major pillars of a sustainable energy supply Remark: conventional resources might be lower than depicted by Perez 8 source: Perez R. and Perez M., A fundamental look on energy reserves for the planet. The IEA SHC Solar Update, Volume 50

9 Results Net exporter region India East source: Gulagi A., et al., Electricity system based on 100% Renewable Energy for India and SAARC 9 Key insights: India East exports 6 TWh of electricity, i.e. the region is mainly a self-supplying region Energy mix is mainly based on PV plus some hydro dams and biomass Batteries shift PV based electricity in the afternoon and night Flexible biomass and hydro is used in evening and night hours

10 Results Net exporter region India West (monsoon month) source: Gulagi A., et al., Electricity system based on 100% Renewable Energy for India and SAARC Key insights: India West exports 22 TWh of electricity to the grid (neighbouring regions) Energy mix is mainly based on PV, wind, hydro dams and biomass Monsoon month shows reduced solar resource but increased wind Batteries shift PV based electricity in the afternoon and night Batteries support grid exports and continuous PtG operation in night hours 10

11 Results Net exporter region North-West Russia source: Bogdanov D. and Breyer Ch., Eurasian Super Grid for 100% Renewable Energy power supply: Generation and storage technologies in teh cost optimal Mix 11

12 Results Net importer region - Venezuela source: Barbosa L., et al Complementarity of hydro, wind and solar power as a base for a 100% RE energy supply: South America as an example 12

13 Finland: cold week, low RE Key insights: very cold at beginning of week low RES production high demands over Christmas also period of high wind batteries begin to refill at end of week 13 source: Child M. et al., The role of solar PV for 100% renewable energy supply in Finland, 31st EU PVSEC, Hamburg, September 14-18

14 Key technologies? Why these? Why not others? Key technologies: Wind energy (available in most parts in the world, large potential, low cost) Solar photovoltaics (available everywhere, huge potential, low cost, prosumer) Batteries (balancing on daily basis, potentially low cost, stationary, EVs, V2G) Power-to-Gas (saisonal storage, bridging technology to secctors industry/mobility) Grids (balancing on geographic level from local to continental scale) Why not others? Fossil fuels: incompatible with net zero, high health costs, CCS illusion Nuclear energy: high cost, high risk technology typical Black Swan technology Hydropower: too limited resources, sustainability not always uncritical Bioenergy: too limited, food priority, conflict to net zero, costs to be checked Geothermal energy: established technology but very low growth rates Ocean energy: not yet mature something forgotten? 14

15 New installed capacities not fully on track (global) 15

16 Latest numbers for wind energy and solar PV 25% increase in annually installed capacities for wind 46% increase in annually installed capacities for solar PV 16

17 PV capacity expectations and role of IEA 2DS hi-ren NPS GW 1799 GW 1721 GW 1927 GW 728 GW 938 GW GW 3687 GW 3199 GW 3277 GW 1066 GW 1519 GW Key insights: leading reports show at least 2-4 times higher numbers than IEA WEO for 2030 and 2040 IEA WEO is lagging behind due to assuming wrong growth Greenpeace and BNEF had been close to real numbers in the past 10 years forecasts of fossil fuel companies such as Shell, BP and Exxon Mobil are as conservative as the IEA WEO 17 source: Greenpeace, BNEF, IEA

18 Future Development of Conversion Technologies 2050 Key insight Greenpeace is substantially more optimistic on solar electricity than IEA Greenpeace expects large capacities of CSP, different to other sources Solar and wind electricity are expected to become the major sources of electricity 18 source: Greenpeace International, Energy [r]evolution

19 Key questions for this presentation Why we have to substantially adjust our energy system? What may be the key technologies? Why these technologies and not others? What s about the economics of such future energy systems? What s about the role of subsidies? 19

20 PV prices based on learning rates 20 Sähkötekniikan peruskurssi - Solar Economy Christian Breyer christian.breyer@lut.fi source: Agora Energiewende, Current and future cost of Photovoltaics, Berlin, February

21 Impression for (Commercial) End-User Profitability source: REC Solar, Study on the Profitability of Commercial Self-Consumption Solar Installations in Germany; Italy and Turkey (only in German available) 21 Lappeenranta University of Technology both systems on the right are part of a 220 kwp commercial solar PV system it is financially beneficial for the university source: Kosonen A., Ahola J., Breyer Ch., Albó A., Large Scale Solar Power Plant in Nordic Conditions, 16 th EU Conference on Power Electronics and Applications, August 26-28

22 market volume [TWh] market volume [% of total volume] Global Grid-Parity Volume GLOBAL MARKET VOLUME [TWh] GLOBAL MARKET VOLUME [% of total volume] % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% - 0% RES COM IND RES COM IND NUMBER OF MARKETS BEYOND GRID-PARITY BY SEGMENT Years RES COM IND sources raw data: Hanwha Q CELLS Market Intelligence, Eurostat, EIA, utility feedback 22 source: Gerlach A., Werner C., Breyer Ch., Impact of Financing Cost on Global Grid-Parity Dynamics till 2030, 29 th EU PVSEC, Amsterdam

23 Solar emerges as the least cost energy source 23 Sähkötekniikan source: ITRPV, peruskurssi International - Solar Technology Economy Roadmap for Christian Photovoltaic Breyer christian.breyer@lut.fi 2013 Results, ITRPV supported by semi

24 benefits What are the CO 2 reduction costs of PV? 24 download at: Fortum Strategy Meeting Christian Breyer christian.breyer@lut.fi

25 PV economics already good and still improving Key insights: Costs still coming down significantly Cost of capital is at least as relevant as the location in Europe Solar PV costs in the Nordic comparable to Germany (where the installed capacity is among the largest globally) Solar PV may become the least cost electricity source in Europe by 2050 sources: EU PV Technology Platform, PV LCOE in Europe Vartiainen E., Masson G., Breyer Ch., PV LCOE in Europe , 31st EU PVSEC, Hamburg, September

26 Cost comparison to other power technologies utility PV already competitive with new gas and coal fired power plants solar PV lower in cost than gas and coal from about 2015 onwards solar PV and wind are the least cost power sources from about 2015 onwards STEG significantly higher in cost than solar PV new nuclear already higher in cost than solar PV (despite of nuclear subsidies) 26

27 What are the real low carbon investments? 27 source: Schneider M. and Froggatt A., The World Nuclear Industry Status Report

28 Cost of cleantech solutions Key insights: PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option nuclear and coal-ccs is too expensive nuclear and coal-ccs are high risk technologies high value added for PV-Wind due to higher capacities needed 28 source: Agora Energiewende, Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option; Grubler A., The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, 5174

29 Energy Flow (100% RE, basic scenario) 29 source: Child M. and Breyer Ch., Vision and Initial Feasibility Analysis of a Recarbonised Finnish Energy System, 17 th Int. Conf. of the Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, June 11-12

30 Energy Flow (100% RE, low biomass scenario) 30 source: Child M. and Breyer Ch., Vision and Initial Feasibility Analysis of a Recarbonised Finnish Energy System, 17 th Int. Conf. of the Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, June 11-12

31 Total annual costs (M /a) Total annual costs: Sustainable Finland * WACC 7% 15% BAU: + 3 b New Nuclear: + 2 b Variable costs - other Variable costs - CO₂ Variable costs - fuel Fixed operation costs Annualized investment costs Basic 100% RE 2050 Basic Low Nuclear 2050 Basic Medium Nuclear 2050 Basic New Nuclear 2050 Low Biomass 100% RE 2050 Low Biomass Low Nuclear 2050 Low Biomass Medium Nuclear 2050 Low 2050 BAU Biomass New Nuclear ** CO 2 price /t BAU: b rather likely according to Luderer G. et al., Environ.Res.Lett., 8, , 2013 Key insights: Stranded investments in nuclear/ coal power stations not accounted (higher WACC?*) Test scenarios have high level of investment Reference scenarios have high level of fuel and CO₂ costs (risk of high CO 2 price**) 31 source: Child M. and Breyer Ch., Vision and Initial Feasibility Analysis of a Recarbonised Finnish Energy System, 17 th Int. Conf. of the Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, June 11-12

32 100% RE in Germany Reiner Lemoine Institut Key insights: cost of 100% RE similar to today s cost decentral and central option cost are more or less the same system is switching from operational to capital expenditures and fuel is squeezed out BUT, operational fraction still one third equivalent to more jobs than today source: Breyer Ch., et al., Vergleich und Optimierung von zentral und dezentral orientierten Ausbaupfaden zu einer Stromversorgung aus EE in DE 32

33 Germany s targets till 2040 Fraunhofer ISE 33 Future Energy source: Systems Henning H.-M. and Palzer A., Was kostet die Energiewende

34 100% RE in Ireland Aalborg University, DK source: Connolly D. and Mathiesen V., A technical and economic analysis of one potential pathway to a 100% renewable energy system, Int. J. Sustain Energy Planning and Mgm Key characteristics: 100% RE system for all sector hourly resolved simulation solar PV forgotten well balanced RE-heat and RE-mobility focus on energy flows and system costs no grid, no import/ export, not fully optimised 34

35 100% RE in Ireland Aalborg University, DK Key insights: 7 step approach feasible significant increase in power demand (~ +350%) BUT, no change in total primary energy demand (TPED) highly efficient power-based RE system enables powerto-gas/liquid pathways 35

36 100% RE in Ireland Aalborg University, DK Key insights: 2020 system cost only 30% higher than reference (neglecting: cost of climate change, cancer deaths, negative trade balance effects, lower level of employment in energy sector, less tax income) 2050 system cost identical to reference simplified standard economic consideration, neglecting the full view on total societal cost otherwise, maybe 30% less in cost (personal estimate) 36 significant increase in employment (> jobs)

37 37 Sähkötekniikan peruskurssi - Solar Economy Christian Breyer christian.breyer@lut.fi

38 Storage: The story of PV reloaded? Key insights (Battery): 100 /kwh battery pack capex translates roughly into 200 /kwh battery system capex tremendous boost for decentral PV-battery applications (on-grid) cost for storing a kwh then <10 ct/kwh stored 30-50% of generation, LCOS are 3-5 ct/kwh PV LCOE might be 3-6 ct/kwh 6-11 ct/kwh for very high self-supply shares Key insights: mobility will be powered by electricity (batteries and PtG) decentralised battery-based power storage (PV-battery systems) 38 source: UBS, Will solar, batteries and electric cars re-shape the electricity system?, August 20; Agora Energiewende, Stromspeicher in der Energiewende, September 16

39 LUT s global energy system research Regions LCOE total regionwide LCOE total areawide Integrati on benefit ** storage s* grids interreg ional trade* Curtailm ent PV prosum ers* PV system * Wind * Biomass * hydro* [ /MWh] [ /MWh] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] Northeast Asia % 10% 26% 6% 14.3% 27.5% 48.2% 7.8% 7.2% Southeast Asia % 8% 3% 3% 7.2% 36.8% 22.0% 22.9% 7.6% Eurasia % <1% 13% 3% 3.8% 9.9% 58.1% 13.0% 15.4% South America % 5% 12% 5% 12.1% 28.0% 10.8% 28.0% 21.1% Europe % 6% 17% 2% 12.3% 14.9% 55.0% 6.6% 9.3% India/ SAARC % 22% 23% 3% 6.2% 43.5% 32.1% 10.9% 5.4% * Integrated scenario, supply share ** annualised costs Key insights: 100% RE is highly competitive least cost for high match of seasonal supply and demand PV share typically around 40% (range 14-50%) hydro and biomass limited the more sectors are integrated flexibility options limit storage to 10% and it will further decrease with heat and mobility sector integration most generation locally within sub-regions (grids 2-26%) 39 sources: see

40 Results for India/ SAARC Regions Electricity Capacities area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade desalination gas 40 Key insights: Area-wide scenario shows high PV capacities which is dominated by PV single-axis and complemented by prosumer PV installations Key insights: Area-wide desalination gas scenario is dominated by PV PV single-axis and wind are the main sources of electricity for water desalination and industrial gas production, especially for importing regions source: Gulagi A., et al., Electricity system based on 100% Renewable Energy for India and SAARC

41 IEA report on India: conservative lower limit 41 Key insights IEA India Energy Outlook (Nov 15) expects GW solar PV capacity in 2040 PV LCOE of about 82 USD/MWh (61.5 /MWh for 1.33 USD/ ) LUT simulation: 30 /MWh for 620 /kwp for utility-scale PV in 2030 based on EU experts IEA cost assumptions seem to be questionable

42 KPMG India on PV: strong growth ahead 42 Key insights KPMG India (Nov 2015) finds breakeven to coal (2015: import coal; 2019: domestic coal) PV capacity at 166 GW in 2024/25 compared to of IEA, i.e. in 10 vs. 20 years KMPG India assumes USD/kWp capex for utility-scale PV plants which is lower than assumed in LUT analysis KMPG India assumes /kwp capex for battery systems in 2025 vs 150 /kwp in LUT analyses LUT may be too conservative for India

43 Greenpeace and Indian Government 43 Key insights Greenpeace (Sept 2015) finds GW solar energy capacities for 2040 for India ( times the IEA assumptions) Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission programme projects about 100 GW of solar PV capacities by 2022 (3-8 years ahead of IEA assumptions) PM Narendra Modi launched the potentially most powerful global solar alliance ever established for solar PV at COP21 KPMG, Greenpeace and Indian Government much more progressive than IEA

44 Key questions for this presentation Why we have to substantially adjust our energy system? What may be the key technologies? Why these technologies and not others? What s about the economics of such future energy systems? What s about the role of subsidies? 44

45 Energy Subsidies Key insights: global energy subsidies are almost fully allocated for fossil (and nuclear) fuels fossil fuel subsidies are as large as global expenditures for the health sector RE would grow much faster if harmful fossil-nuclear subsidies would be phased-out 45

46 What s about subsidies for Renewables? Example of Germany Key insights: there are subsidies for RE subsidies for fossil-nuclear are higher nuclear got AND get the highest subsides per kwh of all technologies subsides in total are 649 b (fossilnuclear) plus 102 b (RE) in total societal costs of of RE are lower than those of fossil-nuclear energy 46 source: FÖs, Was Strom wirklich kostet

47 List of myths about Germany s Energiewende Myths Energiewende would be for phase-out of nuclear energy Energiewende would have been initiated after Fukushima in a panic mode Germany s renewable energy generation would flood neighbouring countries Germany s electricity export would be a huge loss of money Germany s utilities would be at risk due to the Energiewende Energiewende is a huge burden for the industry German people would have been forced by environmentalist for the Energiewende Germany is still in the lead for the energy transition EEG cost are unacceptable high Facts Energiewende is for phase-out of nuclear energy AND fossil fuels Energiewende had been started in Germany in the early 1980s Germany s coal power plant fleet is flooding neighbouring countries Germany s electricity export is a 2 bn business (export prices > import prices) Germany s utilities are at risk due to their lack of willingness-to-adapt Energiewende has reduced the industrial electricity costs on the lowest EU level 90% of German people want to have the Energiewende, even faster Merkel s political target has been to slow down everything, others are more dynamic Subsidies for fossil-nuclear are even higher 47

48 Summary 100% RE system is feasible: technical, economical, ecological PV and wind will become the backbone of energy supply Shift to power megatrend will induce an energy efficiency revolution Subsidies are a major barrier for a faster RE diffusion RE subsidies negligible compared to fossil-nuclear ones 100% RE system is more cost competitive than a nuclear-fossil option! 48

49 Thanks for your attention and to the team! The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation, for the Neo-Carbon Energy project under the number 40101/14.

50 Back-up Slides

51 Key Objective Definition of an optimally structured energy system based on 100% RE supply optimal set of technologies, best adapted to the availability of the regions resources, optimal mix of capacities for all technologies and every sub-region of Eurasia, optimal operation modes for every element of the energy system, least cost energy supply for the given constraints. 51 LUT Energy model, key features linear optimization model hourly resolution multi-node approach flexibility and expandability Input data historical weather data for: solar irradiation, wind speed and hydro precipitation available sustainable resources for biomass and geothermal energy synthesized power load data gas and water desalination demand efficiency/ yield characteristics of RE plants efficiency of energy conversion processes capex, opex, lifetime for all energy resources min and max capacity limits for all RE resources nodes and interconnections configuration source: Gulagi A., et al., Electricity system based on 100% Renewable Energy for India and SAARC

52 Methodology Full system Renewable energy sources PV rooftop PV ground-mounted PV single-axis tracking Wind onshore Hydro run-of-river Hydro dam Geothermal energy CSP Waste-to-energy Biogas Biomass Electricity transmission node-internal AC transmission interconnected by HVDC lines Storage options Batteries Pumped hydro storage Adiabatic compressed air storage Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas Water electrolysis Methanation CO 2 from air 52 Future Gas Energy storage Systems Energy Demand Electricity Water Desalination Industrial Gas

53 Scenarios assumptions 16 regions 10 regions in India (according to regional grids which are further subdivided) 2 regions in Pakistan (North and South) Nepal and Bhutan merged together Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh Key data ~1922 mio population (2030) ~2597 TWh electricity demand (2030) ~447 GW peak load (2030) ~52 mio km 2 area ~103 bil m 3 /a water desalination demand (2030) 53

54 Scenarios assumptions Grid configurations Regional-wide open trade (no interconnections between regions) Country-wide open trade (no interconnections between countries) Area-wide open trade (country-wide HVDC grids are interconnected) Area-wide open trade with water desalination and industrial gas production Connections between countries Connections between regions Scenarios Assumption Regional-wide open trade Country-wide open trade Area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade Des-Gas PV selfconsumption Water Desalination Industrial Gas X X X X X X 54

55 Scenarios assumptions Financial assumptions (year 2030) Generation costs Technology Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime [ /kw] [ /kw] [ /kwh] [a] PV rooftop PV fixed-tilted PV single-axis Wind onshore Hydro Run-of-River Hydro dam Geothermal energy Water electrolysis Methanation CO 2 scrubbing CCGT OCGT Biomass PP Wood gasifier CHP Biogas CHP MSW incinerator Steam turbine Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime Technology [ /(m 3 a)] [ /(m 3 a)] [ /(m 3 a)] [a] Water Desalination Technology Energy/Power Ratio [h] Battery 6 PHS 8 A-CAES 100 Gas storage 80*24 Efficiency [%] Battery 90 PHS 92 A-CAES 70 Gas storage 100 Water electrolysis 84 CO 2 scrubbing 78 Methanation 77 CCGT 58 OCGT 43 Geothermal energy 24 MSW incinerator 34 Biogas CHP 40 Steam turbine 42 CSP collector 51 55

56 Scenarios assumptions Financial assumptions (year 2030) Storage and transmission costs Technology Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime [ /kwh] [ /(kwh a)] [ /kwh] [a] Battery PHS A-CAES Gas storage Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime Technology [ /(m 3 h)] [ /(m 3 h a)] [ /(m 3 h)] [a] Water storage Technology Capex [ /(m 3 h km)] Opex fix [ /(m 3 h km a)] Energy consumption [kwh/(m 3 h km)] Lifetime [a] Horizontal pumping Vertical pumping WACC = 7% Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime Technology [ /(kw km)] [ /(kw km a)] [ /kw] [a] Transmission line Technology Capex [ /kw] Opex fix [ /(kw a)] Opex var [ /kw] Lifetime [a] Converter station

57 Scenarios assumptions PV and Wind LCOE (weather year 2005, cost year 2030) 57

58 Scenarios assumptions Generation profile (area aggregated) PV generation profile Aggregated area profile computed using earlier presented weighed average rule. Wind generation profile Aggregated area profile computed using earlier presented weighed average rule. 58

59 Results 2030 Scenario Total LCOE LCOE primary LCOC LCOS LCOT Total ann. cost Total CAPEX RE Generated capacities electricity [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [bn ] [bn ] [GW] [TWh] Region-wide Country-wide Area-wide Area-wide Des-Gas*, ** Total LCOE LCOE*** primary prosumer prosumer LCOS prosumer Total ann. Cost prosumer Total CAPEX prosumer RE capacities prosumer Generated electricity prosumer [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [bn ] [bn ] [GW] [TWh] * additional demand 43% gas and 57% desalination ** LCOS does not include the cost for the industrial gas (LCOG) *** fully included in table above LCOW: 1.19 /m 3 LCOG: 0.13 /kwh th,gas 59

60 Results Import / Export (year 2030) Area-wide open trade Key insights: Net Importers: Pakistan-North, India North West, India South Net Exporters: Afghanistan, India North, India East 60

61 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) area-wide open trade 61

62 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) area-wide open trade 62

63 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) area-wide open trade 63

64 Results Components of LCOE area-wide open trade and area-wide desalination gas Area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade desalination gas 64

65 Results Installed Capacities 2030 Scenario Wind PV Hydro RoR Hydro dams Biogas Biomass Waste Geothermal Battery PHS CAES PtG GT [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GWh] [GWh] [GWh] [GW el ] [GW] Region-wide Country-wide Area-wide Integrated Scenario PV fixed-tilted PV single-axis PV prosumers PV total Battery system Battery prosumers Battery total [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GWh] [GWh] [GWh] Region-wide Country-wide Area-wide Integrated

66 Results Resource utilization area-wide open trade and area-wide desalination gas Area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade desalination gas PV total capacity 789 GW PV total capacity 960 GW, +22% 66 Key insights: PV and wind capacities are increased substantially in area-wide desalination-gas scenario Overall PV utilization is very low

67 Results Resource utilization area-wide open trade and area-wide desalination gas Area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade desalination gas Wind total capacity 245 GW Wind total capacity 456 GW, +86% Key insights: Wind utilization is increased substantially in area-wide desalination-gas scenario Resources in Afghanistan and Sri Lanka intensively utilized 67

68 Results Regions Electricity Capacities area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade desalination gas Key insights: Area-wide scenario shows high PV capacities which is dominated by PV single-axis and complemented by prosumer PV installations Key insights: Area-wide desalination gas scenario is dominated by PV PV single-axis and wind are the main sources of electricity for water desalination and industrial gas production, especially for importing regions 68

69 Results Regions Electricity Capacities area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade desalination gas Key insights: Area-wide scenario shows high PV generation which is dominated by PV single-axis and complemented by prosumer PV installations Key insights: Area-wide desalination gas scenario is dominated by PV PV single-axis and wind are the main sources of electricity for water desalination and industrial gas production, especially for importing regions 69

70 Results Storages Capacities area-wide and area-wide open trade desalination gas Area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade desalination gas Key insights: Excess energy for area-wide open trade desalination gas: higher in absolute numbers, but close to relative ones Hydro dams are very important as virtual battery, batteries play a major role on the grid level and gas storages for balancing periods of wind and solar shortages A-CAES plays an important role in region-wide scenario, but its role diminishes from country-wide to area-wide scenario 70

71 Results Storages Throughput area-wide and area-wide open trade desalination gas Area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade desalination gas Key insights: Excess energy for area-wide open trade desalination gas: higher in absolute numbers, but close to relative ones Hydro dams are very important as virtual battery, batteries play a major role on the grid level and gas storages for balancing periods of wind and solar shortages A-CAES plays an important role in region-wide scenario, but its role diminishes from country-wide to area-wide scenario Share of throughput of stored energy is close to the share of capacities 71

72 Results Storages Operation area-wide open trade Key insights: Battery/ PHS balance on a daily basis Hydro dams balance on weekly basis PtG/Gas balance on seasonal basis Grids are used the entire year, in particular for wind transport during the monsoon season Storages react in a very flexible way during the monsoon season 72

73 Results Energy flow of the System of area-wide open trade desalination gas (2030) Key insights: PV is the major energy source (prosumers contribute significantly) Wind and biomass are further major energy sources Biomass availability more limited for the power sector due to still high demand for cooking purposes 73