Market Potential for Solar PV: long-term and progressive perspective on 2050 and beyond

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2 Market Potential for Solar PV: long-term and progressive perspective on 2050 and beyond Christian Breyer, Lappeenranta University of Technology EPIA Sustainable Development WG: PV Systems Cost Reduction Brussels, June 25, 2014

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4 We know the way to go 4 source: Brunila A., Fortum Power and heat company in the Nordic countries, Russia, Poland and the Baltics

5 We know the Resource Basis Key insights: no lack of energy resouces limited conventional resources solar and wind resources need to be the major pillars of a sustainable energy supply Remark: conventional resources might be lower than depicted by Perez 5 source: Perez R. and Perez M., A fundamental look on energy reserves for the planet. The IEA SHC Solar Update, Volume 50

6 But do we know the long-term PV demand? The results of some recent studies might help 6

7 Focus on PV for the year 2050 conservative in heat and mobility sector 7 all reports acknowledge significant relevance of PV ( 5 TW) BUT, the variation in results (input) is high, despite of progressive/ RE-based scenarios closer view to the key numbers might provide a valuable guideline

8 Alternative approach to 2050 key assumptions based on IEA-WEO 2013 extrapolation to 2050 by CAGR shift of 50% of non-power TPED to power PE efficiency gain of 20% share of solar PV in power supply of 40% (rest mainly wind, plus some hydro power) assuming a breakthrough in battery capex, resulting in minor CSP capacity key results TWp PV capacity in doublings of capacity for learning curve 320 /kwp target PV capex in 2050 (have in mind: major capex reduction until 2030) 17 /MWh target LCOE for global ave yield PV might become THE least cost energy source 8

9 How does an innovative approach look like? source: Connolly D. and Mathiesen V., A technical and economic analysis of one potential pathway to a 100% renewable energy system, Int. J. Sustain Energy Planning and Mgm Key characteristics: 100% RE system for all sector hourly resolved simulation solar PV forgotten (the rest is innovative ) well balanced RE-heat and RE-mobility focus on energy flows and system costs no grid, no import/ export, not fully optimised 9

10 100% RE in Ireland Aalborg University, DK Key insights: several routes to E-fuels applied (see one example above) sustainable CO 2 route accessible system efficiency of power-to-mobility acceptable most relevant: intermittant resource basis is coupled to flexible and very high demand, resulting in very efficient power demand matching and reduced power storage need 10

11 100% RE in Ireland Aalborg University, DK Key insights: 7 step approach feasible significant increase in power demand (~ +350%) BUT, no change in total primary energy demand (TPED) highly efficient power-based RE system enables powerto-gas/liquid pathways 11

12 100% RE in Ireland Aalborg University, DK Key insights: 2020 system cost only 30% higher than reference (neglecting: cost of climate change, cancer deaths, negative trade balance effects, lower level of employment in energy sector, less tax income) 2050 system cost identical to reference simplified standard economic consideration, neglecting the full view on total societal cost otherwise, maybe 30% less in cost (personal estimate) 12 significant increase in employment (> jobs)

13 Alternative long-term approach beyond 2050 key assumptions based on IEA-WEO 2013 long-term global average PED on EU level of today world population stabilized at 10 bn people share of solar PV between 25%-40%, depending on battery breakthrough and CSP competitiveness gain in PV system efficiency to 30% (area impact) shift of non-power TPED to power (heat pumps, EV, RO desalination, etc.: power-to-heat/gas/fuel/water) no PE efficiency gain (gain in some sectors, but limiting efficiencies in power-to-fuel) key results TWp PV capacity in the long-term beyond 2050 up to 150 TWp in maximum in literature (incl. water, food) no limitation in area demand (or other resources) 9-10 doublings of capacity for learning curve 250 /kwp target PV capex beyond 2050 (have in mind: major capex reduction until 2030) 13 /MWh target LCOE for global ave yield PV might become THE least cost energy source 13

14 Summary solar PV is a major part of the complex energy system PV and Wind emerge to the backbone of global energy supply 100% RE system is feasible: technical, economical, ecological the major energy scenarios deviate stongly in their results for longterm solar PV only WWF and Greenpeace acknowledge innovative power-based heat and mobility solutions maybe 2050 world: TWp, 320 /kwp capex, 17 /MWh LCOE beyond 2050 world: TWp, 250 /kwp capex, 13 /MWh LCOE major cost reductions until 2030 (doublings afterwards take long) PV might become THE least cost energy source 14

15 Thanks for your attention!