R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma

Transcription

1 R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma

2 Outline Development of SWAT model in -Euphrates basin Hydrological analysis of flow in and its tributaries (including river flowing from Iran) feeding to Hawizeh marsh Analysis and implications of dams/water control structures

3 Introduction The Euphrates River Basin Area: km 2 - largest basin in the Middle East : km 2 Euphrates: km 2 Karun: km 2 Country Euphrates Basin Basin* % Area % Flow % Area % Flow Turkey Syria Iran Iraq Saudi Arabia * Data excludes Karun basin Landuse Feeds Hawizeh Marsh Landuse SWAT categories Area (KM2) Area (KM2) % Watershed BROADLEAF FOREST Turkey Hawizeh Mash Forest NEEDLELEAF FOREST 1 EVERGREEN FOREST % MIXED FOREST 21 Shrubland SHRUBLAND BAREN/SPARSLY VEGETATED % Syria Iraq Iran Agriculture Agricultural Land-Row Crops RICE % Agricultural Land-Generic 1750 Urban Residential-Medium Density % Residential-Low Density 73 Water WATER % Wetlands Wetlands-Non-Forested %

4 Overview of river, tributaries and water structures feeding Hawizeh marsh Upper Zone until Iraq border Proposed dam Current dam 1 Legend tigris_dams <all other values> Type Û Barrage 2!( Dam #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator $+ planned dam 3

5 Middle Zone until Bagdad 1 Legend 2 tigris_dams <all other values> Type Û Barrage!( Dam #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator $+ planned dam 3

6 Lower Zone until Hawizeh Marsh 1 Legend 2 tigris_dams <all other values> Type Û Barrage!( Dam #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator 3

7 Image source: Nature iraq report Downstream after Bagdad until Hawizeh Marsh diverts water to Shat Al-Gharaf canal especially for irrigation Kutt Al Musharah & Al Kahlaa Final set of observed flow data available after kutt barrage Ammara Before Ammara barrage river diverts water to 2 branches Al- Eraidh (700cms) and Al Berata (700cms) to feed central marshes At Ammara barrage, river divides into 3 branches Ammara 2 branches (Al- Musharah(150cms) and Al-Kahlaa(477cms) feeds into Al- Hawizeh marsh 1 branch (360cms) heads towards Basra where it meets Euphrates

8 Methods

9 SWAT model development Data inputs Watershed characterization DEM Resolution: m 940 subbasins in TU basin 408 in, 454 in Euphrates, 78 in Karun Landuse landcover Resolution: m Global landuse(based on year 2000) used Manual editing to make sure spatial extent of agricultural fields are represented correctly (Appendix 2) Soils FAO soils used Resolution: 1:5,000,000 Slope 0-5% (67% of watershed), 5-12% (9% of watershed)and >12% (23% of watershed) Weather Global weather 40 by 40 KM resolution Daily data for 32-year period from 1979 to weather stations in the river basin HRU delineation 5/12/10% thresholds for landuse, soil, slope All agricultural lands were exempt Finally 9088 HRU s in TU basin Subwatersheds Weather Streams DEM Subbasins Landuse Soils Appendix 1 gives information on SWAT model

10 Dams Water control structures Euphrates Karun Total Dams Planned dams Dams under construction Barrage/regulators Total Dams Total Barrage/regulators basin Water control structures in country Euphrates Karun current planned current planned current planned Total Turkey Syria Iraq Iran Total Euphrates Basin Legend tigris_dams <all other values> Type Û Barrage!( Dam #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator $+ planned dam Basin Karun Basin Dam operational information Start date, Surface area, volume, operational logistics Wikipedia and other cited literature Manual adjustments needed to be made Some data in Wikipedia were wrong Eg. Surface area of Tartar lake 2800 Sq.KM, however observation on aerial image shows 1800 Sq.KM More information on dams is presented in appendix 3

11 1/1/1985 8/1/1985 3/1/ /1/19 5/1/ /1/19 7/1/1988 2/1/1989 9/1/1989 4/1/ /1/19 6/1/1991 1/1/1992 8/1/1992 3/1/ /1/19 5/1/ /1/19 7/1/1995 2/1/1996 9/1/1996 4/1/ /1/19 6/1/1998 1/1/1999 8/1/1999 3/1/ /1/20 5/1/ /1/20 7/1/2002 2/1/2003 9/1/2003 4/1/ /1/20 6/1/2005 1/1/2006 8/1/2006 3/1/ /1/20 5/1/ /1/20 7/1/2009 2/1/2010 9/1/2010 Streamflow (m3/s) 1/1/1982 8/1/1982 3/1/ /1/19 5/1/ /1/19 7/1/1985 2/1/1986 9/1/1986 4/1/ /1/19 6/1/1988 1/1/1989 8/1/1989 3/1/ /1/19 5/1/ /1/19 7/1/1992 2/1/1993 9/1/1993 4/1/ /1/19 6/1/1995 1/1/1996 8/1/1996 3/1/ /1/19 5/1/ /1/19 7/1/1999 2/1/2000 9/1/2000 4/1/ /1/20 6/1/2002 1/1/2003 8/1/2003 3/1/ /1/20 5/1/ /1/20 7/1/2006 2/1/2007 9/1/2007 4/1/ /1/20 6/1/2009 1/1/2010 8/1/2010 Streamflow (m3/s) Calibration Statistical and graphical evaluation Gauge station R2 NSE PBIAS Greater Zab upstream ( )* Greateer Zab downstream ( ) Lesser Zab upstream ( ) Diyala upstream(( ) below reservoir ( ) below Mosul dam ( ) Monthly average (cms) Monthly Standard Deviation (cms) before Samara barrage ( ) Measured Simulated Measured Simulated above Bagdad ( ) below ( ) (1100mcm) (1300mcm) simulated 800mcm Observed Simulated Linear (Simulated) Greater Zab upstream (t7) R2 > > good NSE > > good Pbias < 1 5%---> good * Time period of calibration based on best observed data available without data interruptions (900mcm) (1000mcm) Observed Simulated Linear (Simulated) below (t7)

12 Results

13 1/1/1982 9/1/1982 5/1/1983 1/1/1984 9/1/1984 5/1/1985 1/1/1986 9/1/1986 5/1/1987 1/1/1988 9/1/1988 5/1/1989 1/1/1990 9/1/1990 5/1/1991 1/1/1992 9/1/1992 5/1/1993 1/1/1994 9/1/1994 5/1/1995 1/1/1996 9/1/1996 5/1/1997 1/1/1998 9/1/1998 5/1/1999 1/1/2000 9/1/2000 5/1/2001 1/1/2002 9/1/2002 5/1/2003 1/1/2004 9/1/2004 5/1/2005 1/1/2006 9/1/2006 5/1/2007 1/1/2008 9/1/2008 5/1/2009 1/1/2010 9/1/2010 Flow (cms) Average monthly flow (mcm) Flow into Hawizeh marsh from River 2500 ha, 5900 mcm % Exceedance Flow without dam flow

14 Annual Water budgets in 80 s Kutt Barrage Average 80 s Low 80 s 7500 High 80 s Mosul Mosul Mosul Greater zab 5500 Greater zab Greater zab Tartar 7000 Lesser Zab Tartar 1500 Lesser Zab Tartar Lesser Zab 5000 Samarra barrage 1000 Samarra barrage Samarra barrage Bagdad 3500 Diyala Bagdad 2000 Diyala Bagdad 5000 Diyala All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm

15 Annual Water budgets in 90 s until Kutt Barrage Average 90 s Low 90 s 2500 High 90 s Mosul Mosul Mosul Greater zab 3400 Greater zab 6000 Greater zab Tartar Lesser Zab Samarra barrage Tartar Lesser Zab 9000 Samarra barrage Tartar Lesser Zab Samarra barrage Bagdad 2800 Diyala Bagdad 1000 Diyala Bagdad 1800 Diyala All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm

16 Annual Water budgets in 2000 s Kutt Barrage Average 2000 s 8000 Low 2000 s 6000 High 2000 s Mosul Mosul Mosul Greater zab 3000 Greater zab 6500 Greater zab Tartar 1000 Lesser Zab Tartar Lesser Zab Tartar 2000 Lesser Zab Samarra barrage 2000 Samarra barrage 8000 Samarra barrage Bagdad 1200 Diyala Bagdad 600 Diyala Bagdad 2000 Diyala All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm

17 Percentage based on channel capacities Annual Water budgets below Kutt Barrage Average 80 s Low 80 s 60% % High 80 s % Average 90 s Low 90 s 7000 High 90 s Average 2000 s Low 2000 s High 2000 s All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm

18 Average monthly flow (mcm) Flow intensity, duration, probability below Kutt Barrage Average monthly flow (mcm) Average monthly flow (mcm) Average monthly flow (mcm) After 5000 mcm (416 mcm monthly) 2000 mcm (208mcm monthly) Flow diversion into Hawizeh marsh 5000 mcm (416 mcm monthly) 4000 mcm (330 mcm monthly) 2000 mcm (208mcm monthly) % Exceedence % Excedence Flow diversion above barrage Flow of tigris towards Basra % Excedence % Excedence

19 1/2000 1/2000 1/2000 1/2001 1/2001 1/2001 1/2002 1/2002 1/2002 1/2003 1/2003 1/2003 1/2004 1/2004 1/2004 1/2005 1/2005 1/2005 1/2006 1/2006 1/2006 1/2007 1/2007 1/2007 1/2008 1/2008 1/2008 1/2009 1/2009 1/2009 1/2010 1/2010 1/2010 Flow (cms) Volume (mcm) Dams Volume Outflow Current Dam (mcm) Inflow (mcm) (mcm) % reduction Evaporation (mcm) evap/vol Batman % 50 5% Dicile % 24 4% Kralkize % 54 3% Mosul % 416 4% Dokan % 309 5% Dibbis % 154 4% Hemrin % 78 3% Derbinkhan % 142 5% % 40 1% Tartar % Total Future Dams River Country Volume Taqtaq Lesser Zab Iraq 2858 Bekhme Greater zab Iraq 8300 Bakeerman Greater zab Iraq 500 Mandava Greater zab Iraq 2000 Hakkari Greater zab Turkey 2000 Garzan Trib upper tigris Turkey 145 Kayser Trib upper tigris Turkey 1970 Dilini Trib upper tigris Turkey 200 Silvan Trin upper tigris Turkey 1175 Cizie Upper tigris Turkey 200 Illisu Upper tigris Turkey Dam effects Flow out with reservoir Flow out without reservoir Volume with irrigation Volume without irrigation

20 Current and Post Dams Average 2000 s - Current 8000 Average 2000 s Post dams* 6000 *Assumptions based on current dam sizes, inflow and outflow calculations Tartar Mosul Greater zab 1000 Lesser Zab Samarra barrage Tartar Mosul Greater zab 1000 Lesser Zab Samarra barrage Bagdad 1200 Diyala Bagdad 1000 Diyala % reduction

21 Summary Decreasing trend of flow in tributaries and main stem 65% and 80% decrease below kutt barrage in 90 s and 2000 s compared to 80 s 0% and 82% decrease in in 90 s and 2000 s compared to 80 s Decrease mainly due to decrease in rainfall and construction of water structures such as dams and water diversions 10%, 30 % and 80% of water available to flood the Hawizeh marsh to 75%, 50% and 25% of original size in 2000 s Current and proposed dams plays a major role in water availability to Hawizeh marsh Evaporation in current dams is equivalent to water needed to re-flood marshes close to 50% of original size dam reduces flow by 45% Future dams such as Illusu on ; bekhme, hakkari and mandava on Greater Zab will have huge impacts Roughly 50% reduction compared to 2000 and 90% compared to 80 s Proper management of dams, water diversions and irrigation will help in improving water availability to Hawizeh marsh

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