Business Forum Conference «Russian Coal in European Markets» 6-88 June 2012, St.Petersburg, Russia

Transcription

1 Business Forum Conference «Russian Coal in European Markets» 6-88 June 2012, St.Petersburg, Russia Perspectives of Coal import into S.Europe (Italy, Spain and Portugal) Giorgio Ruscito - Managing Director Fuelmed - gruscito@fuelmed.it 1

2 SUMMARY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MED ITALY, SPAIN, PORTUGAL: COAL CONSUMPTION DRIVERS MID-TERM PROSPECTS 2

3 STEAM COAL IMPORT FOR POWER GENERATION IN THE MED (e) (e) MTons/yr : overall relatively stable, apart from 2010 (renewables challenge + economic crisis) 3 Source: Fuelmed

4 BUT DIFFERENT CONTRIBUTIONS AND REGIONAL BEHAVIOUR: ISRAEL, MOROCCO, CROATIA (COAL AS BASELOAD) SPAIN, PORTUGAL, ITALY (DEPENDING ON WEATHER, ECONOMY AND NOT ONLY) TURKEY (STRONG POWER DEMAND) 4

5 EVOLUTION OF IMPORT COAL INTO MED REGION COLOMBIAN COAL +50% S.AFRICAN COAL -33% USA COAL COMING BACK RUSSIAN COAL STABLE AT 11-14% 5 Source: Fuelmed

6 ITALY: COAL-FIRED GENERATION CAPACITY : 9,700 MW Vado L. (Tirreno P.) 660 MW Fiume Santo (E.ON) 640 MW Genova (Enel) 295 MW La Spezia (Enel) 600 MW Torrevaldaliga N. (Enel) 1,980 MW Fusina (Enel) 975 MW Marghera (Enel) 140 MW Bastardo (Enel) 150 MW Monfalcone (A2A) 336 MW Brindisi N. (Edipower) 640 MW Brindisi S. (Enel) 2,640 MW Sulcis (Enel) 580 MW TORREVALDALIGA MAKING UP FOR THE LESS EFFICIENT P.P.s 6

7 TORREVALDALIGA NORD BENCHMARK Formerly oil-fired Conversion to coal 2,640 MW 1,980 MW 35% efficiency 45% efficiency CO2 SO2 Nox Particulate (tons/yr) Environmental friendly 7 Source: Enel

8 ITALIAN COAL MARKET EVOLUTION IN THE LAST 10 YRS: PROGRESSIVELY LOWER GEOGRAPHIC DIVERSIFICATION INDONESIA LEADING ROLE US COAL COMING BACK 8 Source: Fuelmed

9 ITALY: 5 COAL FIRING COMPANIES 2011 COAL DELIVERIES: 15 MT COAL FIRING UTILITIES 2011 (MT) 19% 7% 24% 11% % Indonesia S. Africa Colombia Russia USA 0 ENEL TIRRENO POWER E.ON EDIPOWER A2A 2012 FORECAST : 17 MT 9 Source: Fuelmed

10 ITALY: FUEL MIX 2010 GAS PREDOMINANCE (54%) COAL SHARE 12% OTHER RENEWABLES BUT HYDRO: GROWING GRADUALLY 10 Source: Fuelmed

11 ITALY: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN AND STAGNANT POWER DEMAND 11

12 ITALY - ELECTRIC POWER DEMAND (TWh) STILL BELOW Source: Fuelmed

13 PV POWER: GETTING SERIOUS DISPLACING THERMOELECTRIC, WHEN AVAILABLE: PEAK HOURS! 21.9 GW installed in Europe in 2011 Europe leading the PV market, with 75% of all new capacity in Italy was the major investor, with 9.3 GW connected, followed by Germany with 7.5 GW (together accounting for abt 60% of new installations during the past year) 2011 PV Installations in Europe (MW; %) Cumulative installed capacity (MW) 13 Source: EPIA

14 CARBON MARKET COMING IN HELP TO COAL FROM 22 EURO/T Lehman bankrupt following Lehman to bankrupt subprime crisis EUA EUAs /t Copenhagen Accord Political unrest in Lybia; Fukushima accident; First mention of set-aside Lybia (Roadmap riots, 2050) Fukushima Escalation of Eurozone crisis Europe crisis surge Set-aside announcement /TON Credit crunch CER CERs /t S&P Italy downgrades Italy downgraded Relesed 2011 emissions: - 1,4% vs most bearish estimate DOWN TO 7 EURO/T (EUA) 5 Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar (e) 14

15 MID-TERM PROSPECTS FOR NEW COAL UNITS IN ITALY: OPERATOR PLANT MW TIMING / STATUS Enel Porto Tolle 1,980 Environm. Authorization achieved -local objections Enel Rossano Calabro 800 Project TPower Vado 460 Environm. Authorization achieved Eon Fiume Santo 410 Environm. Authorization achieved SEI (Raetia Foster Wheeler - APRI) Saline Ioniche 1,320 Environm. Authorization filed IPP/Sulcis Sulcis 400 New tender? POTENTIALLY MW BUT LOCAL CONSENSUS? ECONOMIC L/T OUTLOOK and POWER DEMAND? 15

16 IBERIA 2010 : BIG SWING MT RENEWABLES GROWTH LOW POWER DEMAND LOW GAS PRICE (e) (e) 16 Source: Fuelmed

17 IBERIA COAL + GAS vs RENEWABLE PORTUGAL: Hydro: TWh vs 9TWh in 2009 (+78%) Renewables in 2010 covering the majority of the demand (55%) SPAIN: Hydro: TWh vs 29TWh in 2009 (+55%) Renewables in 2010 covered 36% of the demand 17 Source: Fuelmed

18 SPAIN (PENINSULAR) - ELECTRIC POWER DEMAND ELECTRIC POWER DEMAND (TWh) UP 97% (FROM 22 TO 43 TWh) POWER GENERATION COAL MAKING UP FOR HYDRO 18 Source: Fuelmed

19 FUEL MIX SPAIN (peninsular) COAL CONTRIBUTION DOUBLING IN Source: Fuelmed

20 SPAIN (peninsular & insular): COAL GENERATION CAPACITY : 12,210 MW 20

21 SPAIN - COAL SOURCES COAL FIRING UTILITIES 2011 (MT) 21 Source: Fuelmed

22 EVOLUTION OF IMPORT COAL INTO SPAIN 22 Source: Fuelmed

23 PORTUGAL- SIMILAR SCENARIO ELECTRIC POWER DEMAND (TWh) COAL MAKING UP FOR HYDRO POWER GENERATION 23 Source: Fuelmed

24 FUEL MIX PORTUGAL Source: Fuelmed

25 PORTUGAL COAL GENERATION CAPACITY : 1,800 MW 25

26 2010 COAL DELIVERIES PORTUGAL 2011 COAL FIRING UTILITIES 2011 (MT) 26 Source: Fuelmed

27 IBERIA PROSPECTS: PERSISTING ECONOMY SLOWDOWN AND STAGNANT POWER DEMAND SPAIN PORTUGAL Power Demand GDP Power Demand GDP ,9% 0,7 % 2012 (e) -0,1% -1,6% ,2% -1,5% 2012 (e) -1,2% -3,7% IBERIA Power Demand GDP ,1% 0,4 % 2012 (e) -0,3% -1,8% 27

28 DIRTY SPARK / DARK SPREAD Spain Portugal /MWh /MWh /MWh 20,00 18,00 16,00 14,00 12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 Dirty Dark-Spark Spread Differential - Iberia , *

29 CLEAN SPREADS DIFFERENTIAL Spain Portugal /MWh /MWh Clean Dark-Spark Spread Differential - Iberia 16,00 14,00 12,00 10,00 8,00 14 COAL WINNING VS GAS /MWh 6,00 4,00 2,00-0,24 0,69 0, , * -2,15-4,00 4,69 (CCGT RUNNING AVG 2,000 HRS/YR) 29

30 IBERIA: COAL FIRING SHORT-TERM TERM PROSPECTS UNEXPECTEDLY POSITIVE THANKS TO : - HIGH GAS PRICE AND MORE FLEXIBLE OFF-TAKE AGREEMENTS - LOW CARBON PRICE - LOWER RENEWABLES AVAILABILITY (PARTICULARLY HYDRO) OFFSETTING: - ROYAL DECREE ON SPANISH DOMESTIC COAL - LOW ECONOMY/POWER DEMAND 2012 FORECAST : SPAIN MT VS 11 MT IN 2011 PORTUGAL 5MT VS 3.8 MT IN

31 FUELMED S.r.l. FUEL IBERIA: COAL FIRING MID-TERM PROSPECTS THE SAME ELEMENTS WILL INFLUENCE IMPORTED COAL CONSUMPTION IN IBERIA, POTENTIALLY SWINGING FROM 12 TO 20 MT! 31

32 THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION DICLAIMER: The views expressed in this presentation represent ent those of the author and not necessarily those of any aforementioned company. 32