World Energy Outlook 2009 Key results and messages of the 450 Scenario

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1 World Energy Outlook 29 Key results and messages of the 45 Scenario Marco Baroni Office of the Chief Economist International Energy Workshop Stockholm, 22 June 21

2 Mtoe World primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario Other renewables Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal WEO-28 total Global demand grows by 4% between 27 and 23, with coal use rising most in absolute terms

3 Change in primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario, Coal Oil Gas Nuclear OECD Non-OECD Hydro Biomass Other renewables Mtoe Fossil fuels account for 77% of the increase in world primary energy demand in 27-23, with oil demand rising from 85 mb/d in 28 to 88 mb/d in 215 & 15 mb/d in 23

4 mb/d Oil production in the Reference Scenario NGLs Unconventional oil Crude oil fields yet to be developed or found Crude oil currently producing fields Sustained investment is needed mainly to combat the decline in output at existing fields, which will drop by almost two-thirds by 23

5 tcm Impact of decline on world natural gas production in the Reference Scenario % 8% 6% 4% Fields yet to be developed or found Currently producing fields Share from fields not yet producing (right axis) 1 2% % Additional capacity of around 2 7 bcm, or 4 times current Russian capacity, is needed by 23 half to offset decline at existing fields & half to meet the increase in demand

6 Billion dollars (28) Average annual expenditure on net imports of oil & gas in the Reference Scenario 6 5 2% % % Share of GDP 3 3% 2 1 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 6% 3% 3%.4% European Union United States China Japan India ASEAN The Reference Scenario implies persistently high spending on oil & gas imports, with China overtaking the United States by around 225 to become the world's biggest spender

7 Iran Russia Saudi Arabia India China Egypt Venezuela Mexico Indonesia Argentina Iraq Uzbekistan UAE Pakistan Ukraine Malaysia Kuwait Algeria South Africa Thailand Chinese Taipei Turkmenistan Ecuador Bangladesh Libya Qatar Vietnam Nigeria Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Angola Colombia Sri Lanka Peru Brunei Korea Philippines Subsidy (billion US$) Subsidy as a percentage of GDP Fossil fuel subsidies by country and as a share of GDP, coal 25% gas 9 oil % of GDP 2% 15% 6 1% 3 5% % Global subsidized consumption of fossil fuels amounted to around US$ 55 billion in 28. Of the countries surveyed this represents 2.1% of GDP (PPP) on average

8 Number of people without access to electricity in the Reference Scenario (millions) World population without access to electricity 28: 1.5 billion people 23: 1.3 billion people $35 billion per year more investment than in the Reference Scenario would be needed to 23 equivalent to just 5% of global power-sector investment to ensure universal access

9 The policy mechanisms in the 45 Scenario A combination of policy mechanisms, which best reflects nations varied circumstances & negotiating positions We differentiate on the basis of three country groupings > OECD+: OECD & other non-oecd EU countries > Other Major Economies (OME): Brazil, China, Middle East, Russia & South Africa > Other Countries (OC): all other countries, including India & ASEAN A graduated approach > Up to 22, only OECD+ have national emissions caps > After 22, Other Major Economies are also assumed to adopt emissions caps > Through to 23, Other Countries continue to focus on national measures Emissions peaking by 22 will require > A CO 2 price of $5 per tonne for power generation & industry in OECD+ > Investment needs in non-oecd countries of $2 billion in 22, supported by OECD+ through carbon markets & co-financing

10 Abatement by policy type in the 45 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario, Scenario Reference Scenario Domestic policies and measures Sectoral agreements OECD+ cap-and-trade for power and industry (including international credits) Emissions Abatement: OECD+ Other Major Economies Other Countries Gt After realising the abatement potential of policies & measures and sectoral approaches, cap-and-trade in OECD+ yields a further 1.8 Gt

11 Gt World abatement of energy-related CO 2 emissions in the 45 Scenario Reference Scenario OECD+ World abatement by technology Gt Gt Gt Efficiency 65% 57% Gt OME 3 28 OC Scenario Renewables & biofuels Nuclear CCS 19% 13% 3% 23% 1% 1% An additional $1.5 trillion of investment is needed in total in the 45 Scenario, with measures to boost energy efficiency accounting for most of the abatement through to 23

12 Gt Abatement in the 45 Scenario by key emitters, International carbon markets Cap & trade in power & industry sectors Internation sectoral standards in transport & industry National policies China United States European Union India Russia Japan China, the United States, the European Union, India, Russia & Japan account for almost three-quarters of the 3.8 Gt reduction in the 45 Scenario

13 Gt Gt World abatement of energy-related CO 2 emissions in the 45 Scenario 42 4 Reference Scenario 35 Reference Scenario Current Pledges Gt Scenario Gt Scenario Current pledges point direction but further efforts would be needed to reach the 45 Scenario

14 Mtoe World primary energy demand by fuel in the 45 Scenario % Fossil fuels 3% 24% 18% 12% 6% Zero-carbon fuels Share of zero- carbon fuels (right axis) % In the 45 Scenario, demand for fossil fuels peaks by 22, and by 23 zero-carbon fuels make up a third of the world's primary sources of energy demand

15 mb/d World oil production by scenario mb/d Non-OPEC OPEC mb/d 2 36 mb/d 28 Reference Scenario Scenario 23 Curbing CO 2 emissions would also improve energy security by cutting oil demand, but even in the 45 Scenario, OPEC production increases by 11 mb/d between now and 23

16 Trillion dollars (28) Cumulative OPEC oil export revenues by scenario Reference Scenario 45 Scenario Though slightly lower than in the Reference Scenario, OPEC revenues in the 45 Scenario are over four times as high as in the last 2 years

17 bcm World primary natural gas demand by scenario % (1 264 bcm) Reference Scenario 45 Scenario 3 +17% (511 bcm) Gas demand continues to grow in both scenarios, peaking by around 225 in the 45 Scenario & highlighting the potential role of gas as a transition fuel to a clean energy future

18 TWh Incremental world electricity production in the Reference and 45 Scenarios, Coal Gas Oil CCS Nuclear Hydro Wind Biomass Solar Other renewables Reference Scenario 45 Scenario Renewables, nuclear and plants fitted with CCS account for around 6% of electricity generation globally in 23 in the 45 Scenario, up from less than one-third today

19 GW World installed coal capacity and retirements/mothballing in the 45 Scenario Total retirements/ mothballing lower needs Total installed capacity in Plants built before 2 New coal additions without CCS Plants built after 2 New coal additions with CCS Under construction Additional coal capacity needs in RS Additional retirements/mothballing Retirements in Reference Scenario Coal capacity in RS By 23, coal-fired capacity in the 45 Scenario is about half than in the Reference Scenario, as the majority of coal plants built before 2 becomes uneconomical

20 Share of sales Grammes per kilometre World passenger vehicle sales & average new vehicle CO 2 intensity in the 45 Scenario 1% 8% 6% 4% Electric vehicles Plug-in hybrids Hybrid vehicles ICE vehicles CO 2 intensity of new vehicles (right axis) 2% 9 5 % Improvements to the internal combustion engine & the uptake of next-generation vehicles & biofuels lead to a 56% reduction in new-car emission intensity by 23

21 Billion dollars (28) World additional investment in the 45 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario Industry Power plants Buildings Biofuels Transport $1.5 trillion of additional investment is needed in the 45 Scenario in the period compared with the Reference Scenario, costing.5% of GDP in 22 & 1.1% of GDP in 23

22 Summary & conclusions The financial crisis has halted the rise in global fossil-energy use, but its long-term upward path will resume soon on current policies Tackling climate change & enhancing energy security require a massive decarbonisation of the energy system > We are now on course for a 6 C temperature rise & rising energy costs > Limiting temperature rise to 2 C will require big emission reductions in all regions A 45 path towards Green Growth would bring substantial benefits > Avoiding the worst effects & costs of climate change > Energy-security benefits, lower oil & gas imports & reduced energy bills > Much less air pollution & huge health benefits Natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future The challenge is enormous but it can and must be met > Improved energy efficiency & technology deployment are critical > Each year of delay adds $5 bn to mitigation costs between today & 23

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