Housing Strategies in San Francisco and Contextualizing the Central SoMa Plan

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1 T: Frm: Re: Planning Cmmissin AnMarie Rdgers, Jshua Switzky, and Steve Wertheim, Citywide Planning Divisin Husing Strategies in San Francisc and Cntextualizing the Central SMa Plan Date: March 21, 2018 Over the next few weeks yu will be cnsidering the Central SMa Plan. During this time it is imprtant t ask: are we ding enugh fr husing? The purpse f this mem is t cnvey the Plan s prpsal fr husing, and t put this plan within the cntext f all f the husing strategies taking place in the City. Central SMa is based upn slid cncepts that are central t the City s and the regin s future: putting jbs in the right lcatin and prducing as much husing as is ptimal in this lcatin in the cntext f all ther land use and transprtatin decisins citywide. Abve all, every plan must be cnsidered in the brader cntext f planning fr the brader City ver time, as n parcel, site, blck, r neighbrhd is a self-cntained ec-system r islated decisin. Central SMa Delivers Significant Husing Benefit & Capacity The Central SMa Plan legislatin as currently prpsed and reflected in the legislatin intrduced by Mayr Farrell and Supervisr Kim wuld likely prduce apprximately 7,100 new husing units. While Central SMa is ften discussed as primarily a jbs plan, the plan prvides fr a substantial amunt f new husing capacity. These 7,100 units wuld represent ver 5% f the City s zned capacity fr husing in a 17-blck area that cntains nly 0.8% f the City s land. In fact, the baseline plan prpsal wuld result in equal square ftage fr husing and jbs (rughly 8 millin square feet each). The Central SMa Plan, if apprved, wuld deliver as much husing as the Rincn Hill and Transbay Redevelpment Plans cmbined, bth husing-fcused plans creating the densest neighbrhd in the City. And, Central SMa prvides husing primarily in mid-rise building types that fit with the character f SMa and the well-cnsidered intentinal evlutin f the skyline. The Central SMa Plan, if apprved, wuld deliver mre new husing than did the Market & Octavia Plan (6,000 units) anther husing-centric plan that spans 376 acres, ver 60% mre area than the 230 acres f Central SMa. Ntably, the Central SMa Plan als prvides as much husing as each f the Candlestick Pint and Treasure Island prjects will achieve (7,200 and 7,800 respectively) -- bth f which were cmplete redevelpment f massive publiclywned sites each substantially larger in area than Central SMa while Central SMa still achieves the additinal lng-term citywide jbs bjectives in a much higher-density mixed Mem

2 use envirnment than is being delivered in these ther areas. Cmbined with the existing 5,500 husing units currently in the neighbrhd, Central SMa will have a residential ppulatin density f abut 80,000 peple per square mile 1 (nt including wrkers and visitrs), which ntably denser than bth Paris and Barcelna. Mst f the area s hundreds f develpable sites are expected t be husing, with a mdest percentage f these sites expected t develp with htel, institutinal, and small ffice uses, and mst buildings having grund flr retail, PDR, r cmmunity facilities. Hwever, testimny frm the Planning Cmmissin and Bard f Supervisrs has made it clear that there is interest in the Plan maximizing the amunt f husing pssible under its Envirnmental Impact Reprt: apprximately 8,300 new husing units. Central SMa Prvides Jbs fr the City that Cannt Be Accmmdated Elsewhere The Central SMa Plan area is the best lcatin fr anticipated jb grwth in the City. It is even mre imprtant fr jbs t be lcated near transit than husing. This is true whether yu are cnsidering the issue frm either a vehicular emissins r envirnmental perspective r frm a walkability r human pint f view. Numerus studies have shwn that peple s travel behavir is far mre sensitive t distance frm mass transit n the destinatin (i.e. wrk, shpping, schl) end f the trip than n the hme end. Cmpunding this truth is that jb space is ccupied mre densely than husing, s it is much mre effective in terms f cncentrating mre peple, activity and majr destinatins near transit. This means that transit is viable and attractive fr mre peple living in mre places t access mre activities and pprtunities. Frging the finite pprtunity here and thus lcating jbs elsewhere wuld exacerbate traffic and air quality issues, keep the regin frm being able t meet its State-mandated targets fr greenhuse gas reductin, and increase the transprtatin cstburdens fr lwer-incme wrkers. Outside f Central SMa, there are very few places in San Francisc with the capacity fr new jbs, and nne that have the transit infrastructure f this neighbrhd. San Francisc has a lng-standing plicy f centralizing and lcating high-density jb grwth in a cmpact area near the highest quality transit and limiting spread f jbs in residential neighbrhds arund the City. This is bth a practical and apprpriate plicy. If the jbs were t mve utside f San Francisc, the envirnmental and livability utcmes wuld be even wrse, as we culd expect the jbs t be lcated in areas like suburban San Mate and Santa Clara cunties. Jbs-Husing Balancing is an Imprtant Citywide and Reginal Issue, But is Nt Relevant at the Neighbrhd Scale The jbs-husing balance (in sheer numbers) r jbs-husing fit (in terms f incmes) f any specific parcel, blck, r neighbrhd plan is nt reasnable t exam utside the cntext f the city as a whle (and arguably an even larger gegraphy f the cmmute-shed). N 1 Ppulatin density is grss density including streets, parks, freeway, and nn-residential prperty. Assuming average f 2.3 residents per unit, 12,600 units ttal (5,500+7,100). Plan area is 230 acres, r 0.36 square miles. Paris is 55,000 residents/sq mi, Barcelna is 41,000 residents/sq mi. 2

3 prject r plan sits utside f the cntext f the city as a whle; the husing built in Central SMa has n mre direct relatin t the jbs within the bundaries f the Central SMa plan area than des the husing planned and built in Hayes Valley r Ptrer Hill r Treasure Island r Parkmerced. The wrkfrce is hused thrughut the entire city, thugh jbs are apprpriately cncentrated in key areas t enhance accessibility. The Central SMa Plan was develped in the cntext f all the plans that have been cnsidered in the City ver the past 15 years alng with thse in the wrks, and in cnsideratin f these citywide verall capacity figures t ensure that the lcal jbs-husing balance is stabilized and imprved ver the lng term. The Central SMa Plan, if adpted, wuld accmmdate apprximately 7,100 husing units (fr 9,600 wrkers) and space fr apprximately 32,000 jbs 2. With adptin f Central SMa as currently prpsed, the City wuld have residential buildut capacity f abut 136,000 units fr apprximately 313,000 new residents (f which abut 184,000 wuld be wrkers 3 ) and jb buildut capacity fr abut 167,000 additinal jbs. These figures wuld bring us rughly in line with what the adpted 2017 Plan Bay Area expects San Francisc t accmmdate thrugh 2040 in rder t meet state mandated greenhuse gas emissins targets. While we culd and shuld cntinue t add capacity fr husing t ensure that there is pprtunity t build mre husing faster t imprve husing affrdability, the verall capacity picture fr the City is ne where there is and wuld cntinue t be sufficient zned husing capacity t huse the zned capacity fr new wrkers. Adding Mre Husing in Central SMa Can Be Achieved With Certain Csts Can additinal husing be added within Central SMa? The answer is yes, but there are ramificatins t that chice. Under the plan Envirnmental Impact Reprt, an additinal 1,200 units culd be added t the current Plan, ttaling apprximately 8,300 new husing units, withut the uncertainty f additinal time, study, and delay. 2 The jb figures f 50,000 and 40,000 are frequently cited by members f the public as attributable t the Plan r the Plan area. These figures are nt crrect and are the result f misunderstandings. The 50,000 figure cmes frm an early envirnmental review dcument that was lking at a much brader area than the current plan area, including buildut f prtins f the dwntwn and Transbay under existing zning. The ttal maximum nn-residential buildut within the current Plan area itself under the prpsed Plan is 8 millin square feet, f which apprximately 7 millin wuld likely be ffice and the remainder PDR, grund flr retail, htel, institutinal and cmmunity uses. The maximum jb capacity f this 8 millin square feet is apprximately 32,000 jbs. The EIR very cnservatively estimated the jb density fr ffice space at 200 grss square feet per wrker versus the lng-standing city metric f 276. This aggressive metric was used t be cnservative because n updated studies had yet been cnducted n the subject. In 2016, the City engaged a cnsultant t cnduct a study f current ffice wrker densities dwntwn, SMa and citywide using a variety f methds in rder t infrm such analyses. The cnclusin was that the actual density calculatin that shuld be used is 240 square feet per wrker. This metric is nw being used in analyses ging frward and shuld be cnsidered as the actual likely capacity. The upsht is that the Central SMa EIR ntably verestimated the ptential number f wrkers that culd accmmdated in the Plan area. 3 Average husehld is 2.3 persns and 1.35 wrkers. 3

4 Fllwing are ptential mdificatins t the prpsed Plan we have identified that culd be pursued t gain the 1,200 unit capacity under the EIR: 1. Raise the lt size threshld fr requiring sme nn-residential uses frm 30K t 40K sf, which wuld allw tw sites (Wells Farg and 330 Twnsend) t g cmpletely residential, adding apprximately 650 units. This reduces the number f ptential large ffice sites frm 7 t 5, reducing the likely ffice develpment by abut 800,000 square feet, and reducing the expected jbs in the area by abut 3, Rezne lts alng Bryant and 6 th Streets, primarily adjacent t the Flwer Mart, t CMUO instead f WMUO, thus allwing husing there, which wuld allw up t 600 additinal units. These strategies wuld increase the likely husing cunt t 8,300 units and reduce the likely jb ptential t 28,500 jbs. T g beynd 8,300 units at this juncture wuld require revisiting the Plan, including sme f the Plan s cre principles. It wuld als add significant delay and csts t plan adptin. Within the Plan area, the vast majrity (75%) f the prjected 28,500 4 jbs wuld be expected t ccur in the area s five remaining large ffice develpments: the Flwer Mart, Tennis Club/88 Bluxme, 598 Brannan, 725 Harrisn, and One Vassar (2 nd and Harrisn). T yield mre husing units while keeping the neighbrhd s prpsed height limits wuld require shifting ne r mre f the five remaining majr ffice sites t be husing. It is imprtant t nte that each f these five sites has an active applicatin filed with the Department. Ntably, fur f these five prjects include husing n their sites in additin t ffice space, three f which wuld include 100% affrdable husing sites n their prperties. As well, a key principle f the Plan has been t achieve a balance f significant density while ensuring a quality f place characteristic f SMa. T increase the amunt f freseeable husing in Central SMa beynd 8,300 units wuld require revisiting the Central SMa Plan s Envirnmental Impact Reprt a prcess which is likely t take a substantial amunt f time and effrt. Delay is imprtant because immediate husing prductin is part f the cmplete Central SMa package. As has been discussed, legislatin culd streamline and expedite apprval f the 7,100 units f husing envisined by the plan by invking Assembly Bill 73 adpted last year (spnsred by Assemblymember David Chiu). If the plan is adpted with use f AB73, husing in Central SMa may cme t fruitin faster here than anywhere else in the City nt cvered by a Develpment Agreement. At present, we have applicatins n file fr 1,800 husing units in the Plan area which are waiting fr and reliant n Plan adptin. Ntably, delay wuld imperil the federal financing fr a 200-unit affrdable husing prject at 5 th and Hward, as well as pstpne at least 1,600 ther units that wuld be ready t start cnstructin in the next cuple f years. 4 Assuming the lt size threshld fr requiring nn-residential uses is increased frm 30,000 t 40,000 square feet as described abve. 4

5 Hwever, it is pssible that sme additinal capacity fr husing culd be determined feasible and desirable in Central SMa, and even mre capacity in a brader area. T examine this pssibility withut endangering immediate husing prductin, Planning staff culd undertake a high-level study t assess ptential ptins fr increasing husing capacity in the brader SMa area. Based n that assessment f ptins, at the directin f the Cmmissin (and prvided with necessary resurces) staff culd pursue mre in-depth planning effrts t flesh these ut and undertake the necessary envirnmental review t enable cnsideratin f such plans r measures. Nte that, as described belw, the Citywide divisin has already prpsed in its wrk prgram fr the cming years (FY18/19 and 19/20) a planning prcess t examine the Furth & King Railyards and immediately adjacent areas, which we anticipate will cnsider rezning alng with necessary envirnmental review. Adding Husing Capacity Is Happening Acrss the City The City f San Francisc currently has apprximately 392,000 units. We have an entitled pipeline f 47,250 units 5, f which 6,275 are currently under cnstructin. An additinal 18,000 units are currently prpsed and under review 6. Under tday s zning, anther 68,000 units culd be entitled nw. Mst f these pipeline and ptential units have been enabled by legislatin passed by the City in the past 13 years, as the City has dramatically expanded its husing ptential with a rapid successin f husing-riented plans and plicies. Of the City s current husing capacity, ver 70% was created within the past decade and a half. During the same time perid, many f these same planning effrts significantly reduced jb capacity in brad areas f the City 7 while thers increased it in fcused areas, resulting in an verall shift f the gegraphy f jb capacity citywide rather than a net increase verall. The fllwing is a partial list f these recently adpted effrts t increase husing capacity: Citywide Initiatives: Ttal 23,500 Accessry Dwelling Units (2014/2016): 14,000 units Density Bnus Prgrams, including 100% Affrdable Husing Bnus and Hme SF (2016/2017): 9,500 units Area Plans: Ttal 24,600 Rincn Hill+Transbay (2005): 7,000 units Market & Octavia (2008): 6,000 units Balba Park Statin (2009): 1,800 8 units Eastern Neighbrhds/Western SMa (2008/2013): 9,800 units Master Plan/Develpment Agreements: Ttal 35,600 Candlestick Pint/Hunters Pint Shipyard (2010): 10,500 units cmbined (7,200 and 3,300 respectively) 5 Including all f the apprved master plan develpment agreements (apprx. 30,000 units). 6 Including prpsed individual specific husing prjects filed in Central SMa and ther pending reznings described in this mem (eg Hub, India Basin, etc). 7 Particularly Market & Octavia, which rezned a significant chunk f the C-3 t disallw ffice and require husing, and Eastern Neighbrhds, which eliminated the ability t build ffice space in large swaths f the frmer M districts where high-density ffice space had been a principally permitted use. 8 Excluding Balba Reservir 5

6 Pier 70 (2017): 2,000 units HOPE SF (2017): 1,900 units Missin Rck (2018): 1,400 units Executive Park (2012): 2,800 units Treasure Island (2011): 7,800 units Parkmerced (2011): 5,600 units Schlage Lck (2009): 1,700 units Trinity (2006): 1,900 units It is imprtant t nte that the adptin f these plans and plicies, alng with the mre streamlined review prcesses (eg Cmmunity Plan Exemptin) that accmpanied them are substantially respnsible fr the ntable increase in annual husing prductin that has taken place in recent years in San Francisc. Since their passage, the City has seen a substantial increase in husing prductin annually, with an average f 4,000 units per year frm 2014 thrugh 2017, cmpared t an average f less than 1,000 units per year during the 1990s and 2,200 units per year during the 2000s. Given that almst nne f the majr master plan develpment agreement prjects have yet t begin prductin, the current pace f husing cnstructin has the ptential t increase further ver the cming years. Mre Plans t Increase Husing Capacity are in Develpment Nw In additin t the current capacity plus Central SMa, in the next cuple f years there will be multiple additinal pprtunities t increase the City s husing ptential based n prjects and plans currently underway. These include: 700 Innes/India Basin master plan (expected 2018): 1,200 units The Market/Van Ness Hub plan (expected 2019): 2,500 units (beynd the existing Market & Octavia Plan) Ptrer Pwer Statin/PG&E Switchyard master plan (expected 2019): 2,700 units Balba Reservir master plan (expected 2019): 1,100 units In additin t these effrts already underway, which wuld add 7,500 units t the City s capacity, the Planning Department is intending t begin ver the cming year the fllwing effrts n ur wrk prgram 9 : Study f the 4 th and King Railyards and immediately adjacent areas 10 Creatin f a lcal density bnus prgram (like HOME-SF) fr density decntrlled zning districts like thse in the Eastern Neighbrhds and Market & Octavia Plan areas. Neighbrhd discussins in the Excelsir, D9 (including Missin between Cesar Chavez and Randall, the Alemany Crridr, and the Prtla), and the Bayview (including rezning the remaining M parcels alng 3 rd Street). 9 Reviewed and apprved by the Planning Cmmissin n February 8, 2018, pending release by the Mayr s Office in June. 10 While the specific study area bundaries have nt been determined, this scpe was initially cnceived f including blcks f Shwplace Square and Western SMa prximate t the railyards. This planning effrt culd als include prtins f Central SMa. 6

7 While these effrts have nt yet begun r quantified the additinal husing ptential that culd arise, it wuld be safe t say the cumulative net additin wuld be several thusand units. Additinal Ideas fr Increasing Husing Capacity Beynd Central SMa While these underway and sn-t-begin plans are likely t yield ver 10,000 mre units in a few specific areas, the time is right fr the City t develp even mre strategies fr husing, especially strategies t lk bth beynd the eastern half f the City where plans ver the past 15 years have fcused and t add a brader range f husing types thrughut the City. Given the City s brader husing needs and the extent t which Suth f Market has been the nging fcus f successive planning effrts ver the past 15 years, a mre cmprehensive cnsideratin f the City seems warranted. Such ideas culd include: Expansin f ADU prgram t allw mre flexibility Develpment f a Missing Middle prgram t permit new lw-scale and mid-scale multi-family husing that fit within the cntext f lwer density neighbrhds Cnsideratin f further neighbrhd r crridr-specific planning Further use f AB73 t declare additinal sustainability districts t speed up husing entitlements 7