National Laboratory Astana TIMES-Kazakhstan: from a national to a regional analysis and modelling

Transcription

1 National Laboratory Astana TIMES-Kazakhstan: from a national to a regional analysis and modelling Aiymgul Kerimray, Rocco De Miglio, Aidyn Bakdolotov, Igor Kolyagin, Bakytzhan Suleimenov, Yerbol Akhmetbekov June 1st 2015 ETSAP Workshop Abu Dhabi, Dusit Thani Hotel

2 ENERGY BALANCE OF KAZAKHSTAN IN 2012 TFC/TPES = 55% High energy industry own use and losses High exports IEA (2013)

3 toe/1000 $2005USD toe/1000$2005usd GDP ENERGY INTENSITY OF KAZAKHSTAN Kazakhstan takes 11 th place in the world with its GDP energy intensity There are some differences in IEA and NU assessments (8-15%) GDP energy intensity in 2011 GDP Energy intensity over NURIS IEA Kazakhstan IEA 0 Kazakhstan-NURIS

4 REASONS FOR INEFFICIENCIES Geographical: the continental climate, large territory, low population density 6 people/sq.m. and uneven distribution of power generating capacities over the territory Administrative and economic: lack of metering for energy saving, low profitability TFC/TPES (2012) Technical: high wear of the equipment in the energy intensive sectors, high wear of electric lines, dilapidation of the housing stock Low efficiencies of power plants, almost 50 % of generating capacities has run for more than 30 years Huge transmission (5%) and distribution (13%) losses of electricity Up to 35% of losses of heat in distribution

5 TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY Total primary energy supply over , ktoe (NU) Coal &peat Crude oil Natural gas RES&Nuclear Oil products

6 ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTORS Energy consumption by sectors, , ktoe (NU) Industry Transport Residential Other Non-energy use

7 kt CO2 eq. GHG EMISSIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN GHG emissions historical dynamics, Fuel combustion Industrial processes Agriculture LULUCF Waste

8 TIMES-KAZAKHSTAN MODEL Developed since 2011 under the project funded by Ministry of Education and Science of RoK GOAL: to explore the evolution of the system in the long-term, to design and test national energy-environmental related policies and strategy Collaboration: ASATREM, E4SMA Geographical boundaries: national (monoregional) Time horizon: System boundaries: the entire energy system (from the upstream to the demand) Additional modules and features: Own-price elasticities for the end-use demands Endogenous retirement profiles of the power plants Domestic and/or International ETS LULUCF and industrial processes emissions (III-VI National Communication UNFCCC) Scenarios considered: GHG reduction potential Energy efficiency improvement potential Impact of ETS

9 DRIVERS OF THE MODEL The population is assumed to grow at 1.25%pa GDP was expected to rise at an annual rate of 6%pa until 2020, and 5%pa until 2030: IMF projections in 2013)

10 MODELING RESULTS ENERGY EFFICIENCY Two scenarios were : reducing energy intensity of GDP by 40% by 2020 (compared to the 2008 level) as set in the Energy Saving-2020 programme introducing an incentive of US$20 (at 2000 prices) per ton of CO 2 equivalent reduced starting from 2020 (CO 2 TAX). The efficiency gaps (EFF(ET)j <= EFF(NTi)j) between an existing reference technology (ET) and the new ones (NTi) available for the same energy sector/service (j), as well as the virtual savings due to the use of more efficient technologies (Q(NTi)j).

11 Mtoe CO2 emissions in Mt MODELING RESULTS ENERGY EFFICIENCY Energy Efficiency Improvements (EEI) in different part of Energy System and CO2 emissions BaU Energy intensity reduction target CO2TAX Coal Transformation 220 kv - transmission 500 kv - transmission ELC - End-use ELC - distribution ELC - after meters NGA - End-use NGA - transformation NGA - distribution grids NGA - transport Heat - distribution Heat - transport Oil - End-use TOTCO2

12 Primary Energy (Mtoe) Consumption (Mtoe) MODELING RESULTS ENERGY EFFICIENCY Dynamics of TPES, Electricity and Heat Consumption of Kazakhstan Coal Oil Natural gas Renewables Electricity Electric District heat BaU Energy intensity reduction target CO2TAX

13 MODELING RESULTS ENERGY EFFICIENCY

14 KAZAKHSTAN S 16 REGIONS TIMES MODEL Kazakhstan has a large territory of 2.7 mln km 2 (9 th place in the world ) 3000 km from west to east and 1700 km from south to north Geographical boundaries: 14 regions and 2 cities: Astana (capital) and Almaty (financial center) Time horizon: System boundaries: the energy system GOAL: to explore the potentials and the need of the different oblasts, the synergies across the regions (energy exchanges), and to assess the energy related investment location decisions. State of development: early stage (electricity and heat chains are described) 14/19

15 MAP OF PIPELINES IN KAZAKHSTAN

16 AVERAGE YEAR TEMPERATURE IN KAZAKHSTAN, C Heating season varies from 143 to 231 days from region to region Average year temperature varies from 2ºС in the north to 13ºС in the south

17 Astana city 2011 (ktoe) Coal Crude Oil Oil Products FUEL-ENERGY BALANCE REGIONS LEVEL (ASTANA CITY E.G.) Combustible Renewables & Waste Electricity Heat Total Production Imports 1, , , , Exports , , , International marine bunkers International aviation bunkers Stock changes Total primary energy supply 1, , Transfers Statistical differences Main activity producer electricity plants Autoproducer electricity plants Main activity producer CHP plants -1, Autoproducer CHP plants Main activity producer heat plants Energy industry own use Losses Final consumption Industry Iron and steel Chemical and petrochemical Non-ferrous metals Non-metallic minerals Transport equipment Machinery Mining and quarrying Food and tobacco Paper, pulp and print Wood and wood products Construction Textile and leather Non-specified (industry) Transport Road Domestic aviation Rail Pipeline transport Domestic navigation Non-specified (transport) Other Residential Commercial and public services Agriculture/forestry Fishing Non-specified (other) Non-energy use Non-energy use industry/transformation/energy FEBs for 16 regions were reclassified ( ) to IEA format Different data sources Analysis of statistical differences Country balances were updated accordingly For the first time regions level FEB

18 Akmola obl. Aktobe obl. Almaty obl. Atyrau obl. WKO Zhambyl obl. Karaganda obl. Kostanay obl. Kyzylorda obl. Mangistau obl. SKO Pavlodar obl. NKO EKO Astana city Almaty city REGIONAL INDICATORS TFC/TPES 84% 83% 85% 76% 77% 57% 57% 57% 58% 53% 54% 47% 46% 44% 34% 29% CO2 emissions per capita, t/person Kazakhstan average World average WORLD AVERAGE

19 REGIONAL INDICATORS Total primary energy supply by fuel type, ktoe Almaty city Astana city East-Kazakhstan obl. North-Kazakhstan obl. Pavlodar obl. South-Kazakhstan obl. Mangistau obl. Kyzylorda obl. Kostanay obl. Karaganda obl. Zhambyl obl. West-Kazakhstan obl. Atyrau obl. Almaty obl. Aktobe obl. Akmola obl Coal Crude oil Oil products Gas Electricity Consumption of heat by houses provided by district heating per living area by regions of Kazakhstan, kwh/m Kazakhstan average Russia Finland

20 Akmola obl. Aktobe obl. Almaty obl. Atyrau obl. WKO Zhambyl obl. Karaganda obl. Kostanay obl. Kyzylorda obl. Mangistau obl. SKO Pavlodar obl. NKO EKO Astana city Almaty city REGIONAL INDICATORS 00% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Final consumption by type of fuel, by regions, % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Final consumption by sector, by regions % Heat Electricity Gas Oil products Crude oil Coal Non-energy use Services Transport Agriculture/forestry Population Industry Final consumption structure differ from region to region: Gas consumption varies from 0 to 48% Coal consumption varies from 0.1 to 42% Oil products varies from 12 to 52% Industrial consumption varies from 20/196 to 72%

21 CONCLUSIONS, FUTURE WORK There is significant room for energy efficiency saving in Kazakhstan even in BAU optimal solution (22Mtoe in 2030) CO2 reduction targets require higher gas penetration Regions of Kazakhstan differ significantly and energy efficiency potential is different 16 regions model will improve the quality of modeling results but requires more data and time 21/19

22 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Aiymgul Kerimray