Edward Mazria, AIA, FRAIC Architecture 2030

Transcription

1 Edward Mazria, AIA, FRAIC Architecture 2030

2 THE OPPORTUNITY By 2030, over 80 billion m 2 (900 billion ft 2 ) of new and rebuilt buildings will be constructed in cities worldwide. Sources: UN Habitat, State of the World s Cities 2010/2011; McKinsey Global Institute.

3 By 2030, over 60% An area equal to 60% of the entire building stock of the world, with energy and emissions patterns 80 locked-in billion for 80 mto 2 ( years! billion ft 2 ) of new and rebuilt buildings will be constructed in cities worldwide. Sources: UN Habitat, State of the World s Cities 2010/2011; McKinsey Global Institute.

4 % Share of Growth 38% 30% 20% China US/Canada 53% 15% 12% 10% 9% 9% 9% 4% 4% China US / Canada Other Emerging India Latin America Global Urban Floor Space Growth ( ) Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Urban World: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, Middle East Africa Other Developed Western Europe

5 GETTING ROADMAP TO 2050 ZERO A. COUNTRY TARGETS B. ACTION ITEMS (to meet the targets) 1. New Buildings 2. Existing Buildings (renovations) 3. Building Products BUILDING SECTOR COP 21, PARIS 2015

6 CO 2 Emissions (2015 level) 0% ROADMAP % -15% -30% -30% -45% A. -45% COUNTRY TARGETS B. -60% ACTION -60% ITEMS (to meet the targets) Carbon Neutral 1. New -75% Buildings -75% -90% to 2. Existing Buildings Carbon (renovations) -90% Neutral 3. Building Products Carbon Neutral Roadmap 2050 Total Building Sector CO 2 Emissions Targets BUILDING SECTOR COP 21, PARIS 2015 Source: Architecture 2030

7 ROADMAP 2050 A. COUNTRY TARGETS B. ACTION ITEMS (to meet the targets) 1. New Buildings 2. Existing Buildings (renovations) 3. Building Products BUILDING SECTOR COP 21, PARIS 2015

8 ROADMAP CARBON NEUTRAL 2. Existing 2025 Buildings (renovations) 2030 Fossil Fuel CO2 Reduction Renewable Energy Fossil Fuel Consumption 2030 Challenge A. COUNTRY TARGETS B. ACTION ITEMS (to meet the targets) 1. New Buildings 3. Building Products Roadmap New Buildings Fossil Fuel CO 2 Reduction Targets BUILDING SECTOR COP 21, PARIS 2015 Source: Architecture 2030 New Buildings include major renovations; EUI = building operation Site Energy Use Intensity

9 ROADMAP 2050 A. COUNTRY TARGETS B. ACTION ITEMS (to meet the targets) 1. New Buildings 2. Existing Buildings (renovations) 3. Building Products BUILDING SECTOR COP 21, PARIS 2015

10 ROADMAP 2050 Fossil Fuel Consumption Fossil Fuel CO 2 Reduction 50% 50% A. COUNTRY TARGETS 2% to 3% (annual building stock renovation) Developed Countries Renovate a minimum of 2% to 3% of the total existing building stock each year to a 50% fossil fuel operating energy consumption reduction. B. ACTION ITEMS (to meet the targets) 1. New Buildings 1.5% to 2% (annual building stock renovation) 2. Existing Buildings (renovations) 3. Building Developing Products Countries Renovate a minimum of 1.5% to 2% of the total existing building stock each year to a 50% fossil fuel operating energy consumption reduction. Roadmap Existing Buildings Fossil Fuel CO 2 Reduction Targets BUILDING SECTOR COP 21, PARIS 2015 Source: Architecture 2030

11 ENERGY CONSUMPTION (Quadrillion Btu / year) Global Building Sector energy consumption non-co 2 emitting energy 1.25% annual energy reduction CO 2 emitting fossil fuel 3% annual emissions reduction new non-co 2 emitting energy EXISTING ROADMAP Roadmap 2050 Global Building Sector Targets Source: Architecture 2030; Data adapted from the EIA International Energy Outlook NEW 2050 carbon neutral

12 PROGRESS?

13 Practice TARGETS (carbon neutral by 2030)

14 TARGETS (carbon neutral by 2030) Practice 73% Top 30 A/E Firms 52% of all U.S. architecture firms

15 TARGETS (carbon neutral by 2030) Practice SEATTLE CLEVELAND PITTSBURGH LOS ANGELES DENVER TORONTO DALLAS SAN FRANCISCO WASHINGTON, DC SYRACUSE ANN ARBOR ATLANTA 73% Unique private/public partnerships DETROIT Top ITHICA 30 A/E Firms FT. WORTH Property owners and managers 52% ALBUQUERQUE of all U.S. architecture firms STAMFORD PHOENIX SAN ANTONIO The Santa Fe Priorities Local governments (Design Leadership Conference 100 global leaders) Business/community stakeholders Over 350 architecture firms committed.

16 Practice TARGETS (carbon neutral by 2030)

17 Practice TARGETS (carbon neutral by 2030)

18 TARGETS (carbon neutral by 2030) Practice Policy

19 TARGETS (carbon neutral by 2030) Practice Policy 2007 U.S. Energy Independence & Security Act Sec. 433 Executive Order Beginning in 2020 and thereafter, ensure that all new Federal buildings that enter the planning process are designed to achieve zero-net-energy by Fossil Fuel Reduction 55% % % % %

20 TARGETS (carbon neutral by 2030) Practice Policy OBAMA PUSH KEEPS ENERGY EFFICIENCY MOVING Wendy Koch, USA TODAY 9:48 a.m. EDT May 14, 2014 CALIFORNIA S COMMITMENT Obama push keeps energy efficiency moving The DOE, which does technical work to develop the codes that states adopt, will push for standards that require 8.5% less energy. U.S. National Building Zero Net Energy for Residential Energy Buildings Code Standard by 2020 Zero Net Energy for Commercial Buildings by % energy reduction

21 TARGETS (carbon neutral by 2030) Practice Policy Information SITE DISTRICT REGION INFORMATION GAP Professional 27 markets Planning Professional Education Architecture Series Education Series in U.S. and Canada BUILDING CITY / TOWN 2030palette.org

22 Step 1. Design & Planning Sustainable Adaptable GETTING TO ZERO CARBON Information 70%-80% (no cost / low cost) Step 2. Technology ZERO CARBON

23 GETTING TO ZERO CARBON Step 1. Design & Planning Sustainable Adaptable 70%-80% (no cost / low cost) Step 2. Renewables 20%-30% Technology ZERO CARBON

24 Case for ACTION

25 56 52 QBtu Quadrillion Btu U.S. Building Operations Source: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (EIA AEO)

26 QBtu QBtu Quadrillion Btu $4.61 Trillion MW 40 $560 Billion 36 $1.94 Trillion -6.9 QBtu EIA AEO 2013 best available demand technology MW U.S. Building Operations Source: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (EIA AEO)

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28 2030palette.org architecture2030.org