Feasible Climate Targets. Richard Richels International Energy Workshop June 17, 2009 Venice, Italy

Transcription

1 Feasible Climate Targets Richard Richels International Energy Workshop June 17, 29 Venice, Italy

2 Presentation based on two recent papers by Blanford, Richels and Rutherford 1. Revised Emissions Growth Projections for China: Why Post-Kyoto Climate Policy Must Look East, The Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements : Website: 2. Feasible Climate Targets: the Role of Economic Growth, Coalition Development and Expectations Energy Economics, forthcoming rrichels@epri.com 2

3 Outline of Presentation Update CO2 emissions in the absence of additional policy Reexamine stabilization scenarios 3

4 Outline of Presentation Update CO2 emissions in the absence of additional policy accelerated growth in developing countries 4

5 Energy-related CO 2 emissions in China CCSP Reference Scenarios (27) History (ORNL) Billion tons CO

6 Non-Annex B Emissions will surpass Annex B before 21 5 Other Non-Annex B India Energy-related CO 2 Billion tons C China Annex B

7 Outline of Presentation Update CO2 emissions in the absence of additional policy accelerated growth in developing countries impact of current recession 7

8 Mild and Severe Recession Mild recession = 2 years of zero economic growth globally Severe recession = 5 years of zero economic growth globally 8

9 Baseline Global CO 2 Emissions to Billion tons CO High Economic Growth + Mild Recession (Optimistic) Low Economic Growth + Severe Recession (Pessimistic) 4 2 History CCSP Baseline

10 Outline of Presentation Update CO2 emissions in the absence of additional policy accelerated growth in developing countries impact of current recession Reexamine stabilization scenarios, in light of composition of coalition 1

11 Coalition Countries: Ready to Participate Now Annex B OECD Russia Ukraine USA Greater EU Japan Canada Aus/NZ Korea Mexico Turkey 11

12 Non-Coalition Countries: Delayed Participation Medium-Term Transition: Long-Term Transition: Brazil Russia India China Rest of World - Mid-income countries (e.g. Korea, Mexico) - OPEC countries - Poor countries (e.g. Sub- Saharan Africa) BRIC Group ROW Group 12

13 Non-Coalition emissions are 2x Coalition now (and growing twice as fast) BRIC Group Brazil India Russia 27 Global CO 2 Emissions (billion tons) Rest of World 3 2 Indonesia Saudi Arabia South Africa Mexico Iran Korea China 15 Rest of Coalition USA

14 1 1 Global 1 Baseline Total CO 2 Emissions Global Coalition BRIC Billion tons CO ROW Optimistic Growth Pessimistic Growth

15 1 1 Global 1 Baseline Total CO 2 Emissions Coalition Coalition BRIC Billion tons CO ROW Optimistic Growth Pessimistic Growth

16 1 1 Global 1 Baseline Total CO 2 Emissions BRIC Coalition BRIC Billion tons CO ROW Optimistic Growth Pessimistic Growth

17 1 1 Global 1 Baseline Total CO 2 Emissions ROW Coalition BRIC Billion tons CO ROW Optimistic Growth Pessimistic Growth

18 Outline of Presentation Update CO2 emissions in the absence of additional policy accelerated growth in developing countries impact of current recession Reexamine stabilization scenarios, in light of composition of coalition nature of targets 18

19 Projected Radiative Forcing in 21 Watts per square meter: Change in heat balance relative to pre-industrial CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O F-gases (.2 W/m 2 ) Target Levels CO 2 -equivalent concentration in ppmv CO 2 -e 21 Kyoto GHG total is 2.55 W/m 2 = 448 ppmv CO2-e 19

20 Stabilization Targets Focus on CO 2, but take into account other Kyoto gases Radiative Forcing (W/m 2 ) CO 2 -e Concentration (ppmv) CO 2 -only Concentration (ppmv) 21 Levels Target Target

21 Outline of Presentation Update CO2 emissions in the absence of additional policy accelerated growth in developing countries impact of current recession Reexamine stabilization scenarios, in light of composition of coalition nature of targets entry into coalition 21

22 What is possible, at what cost, if Coalition countries begin abatement immediately BRIC Group (Brazil, Russia, India, China) begins abatement after 23 Rest of world (ROW) begins abatement after MERGE model used to find least-cost stabilization pathway under these constraints 22

23 Defining Delayed Participation Without anticipation Developing countries do not plan in advance for future target With anticipation Developing countries do plan in advance for future target 23

24 Defining Delayed Participation 35 3 Total CO 2 Emissions from BRIC Region 4.5 RF Target Globally optimal path Delay, with anticipation Delay, no anticipation BAU Billion tons CO RF Target Globally optimal path Delay, with anticipation 1 5 History China India Russia Brazil (assumes optimistic economic growth) 24

25 Defining Delayed Participation Without anticipation Developing countries do not plan in advance for future target

26 Optimal Global Stabilization Pathways 7 6 Optimistic Baseline 5 Billion tons CO Target 3.7 Target 2 Coalition 1 BRIC ROW

27 Locked-in Emissions from Non- Participants 7 6 Optimistic Baseline 5 Billion tons CO Coalition 4.5 Target 3.7 Target Infeasible 1 BRIC ROW

28 65 CO 2 -e Target is Possible with Delay $3 / ton CO 2 in 22 4% of Gross World Product by 21 Optimistic Baseline Billion tons CO Target 2 Coalition 1 BRIC ROW

29 Optimal Paths w/ Pessimistic Economic Growth 7 6 Billion tons CO Pessimistic Baseline 4.5 Target 3.7 Target 2 Coalition 1 BRIC ROW

30 Now, 55 CO2-e Target is Possible with Delay 7 6 Billion tons CO Pessimistic Baseline 4.5 Target 3.7 Target 2 Coalition 1 BRIC ROW

31 However, Requires Drastic Action in Coalition 7 6 $43 / ton CO 2 in 22 7% of Gross World Product by 26 Billion tons CO Pessimistic Baseline 4.5 Target 3.7 Target 2 Coalition 1 BRIC ROW

32 Outline of Presentation Update CO2 emissions in the absence of additional policy accelerated growth in developing countries impact of current recession Reexamine stabilization scenarios, in light of composition of coalition Nature of targets entry into coalition alternative expectations regarding accession 32

33 What If.. BRIC countries agreed today to join the coalition beginning in 23 ROW countries agreed today to join the coalition beginning in 33

34 Question: What is the value of anticipation? 34

35 Win-Win! Reduction in GDP Loss with Anticipation of Future Participation Radiative Forcing Target (W/m 2 ) Economic Growth Scenario Savings for Coalition Savings for BRIC 3.7 (55 ppmv CO 2 -e) Pessimistic 51% 31% 35

36 Conclusions Surprising Growth in developing countries shifts the dynamics of the stabilization problem Recession has an impact but does not change fundamental realities of the stabilization challenge With delayed participation by developing countries, achieving stabilization at: 65 CO2-e is reasonably possible 55 CO2-e is extremely difficult 45 CO2-e is in the rearview mirror A commitment on the part of the BRICs now to reduce emissions at some date in the future can be a win-win proposition 36

37 Thank you! 37

38 Temperature Increase Over Pre-industrial Level BAU (optimistic growth) Degrees C BAU (pessimistic growth) 65 CO 2 -e 55 CO 2 -e