Global Transformations

Transcription

1 Global Transformations and the Future of Mobility Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität Wien xx What Do Energy and GHG Scenarios Tell Us? 14 th Biennial Conference on Transportation and Energy, Asilomar Conference Grounds 7 August 2013

2 Global CO2 Emissions INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC) 2

3 Global CO2 Emissions INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC) 3

4 Nakicenovic #4 2013

5 But first, a reminder Nakicenovic Morgan, 2013 #5 5

6 Technological Change: Dynamic, Cumulative, Systemic and Uncertain Incremental gradual (continuous) and cumulative improvements Abrupt radical, discontinuous and disruptive as gales of creative destruction Nakicenovic #6 2013

7 Technological Uncertainty Patented but not adopted smoke-spark spark arrestors VU Energieökonomie WS 2010 Nakicenovic Source: J. White, American Locomotives,, #7

8 Use of Passenger Transport (per passenger-kilometer) Nakicenovic Source: Fouguet and Pearson, 2003 #8 2013

9 Price of Passenger Transport (per passenger-kilometer-hour) Nakicenovic Source: Fouguet and Pearson, 2003 #9 2013

10 Use of Passenger Transport (per passenger-kilometer) Nakicenovic Source: Fouguet and Pearson, 2003 #

11 France - Growth in Motorized Mobility (pass-km per day per capita) ,000 All modes 10 1 Buses + cars 10,000 Km/day-cap Wheelers Rail 1,000 Meter/day-cap 10-1 Railways Horses Air TGV Waterways Nakicenovic Source: Grübler, 1998 #

12 Nakicenovic 2013 #12

13 Nakicenovic 2013 #13

14 Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. natural gas production sources U.S. dry gas production trillion cubic feet per year History 2010 Projections 23% Shale gas 49% 2% 26% 9% 9% 10% 21% Tight gas Non-associated offshore Coalbed methane Associated with oil Non-associated onshore Alaska 1% 21% 7% 7% 7% 9% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16,

15 Global CO2 emissions (PgC) Nakicenovic 2013 #15 Global CO 2 Emissions

16 Global CO2 emissions (PgC) Nakicenovic 2013 #16 Global CO 2 Emissions IPCC Category I reductions of 35-75% by 2050 Peak by almost zero or negative in the long term

17 Global CO2 emissions (PgC) Nakicenovic 2013 #17 Global CO 2 Emissions IPCC Category I RCP 8.5 RPC 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP 2.6 GEA (SE4ALL) RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 RCP 6.0 RCP GEA

18 Nakicenovic The Natomo Family 6:30am March 27, 1993 Kouakourou, Mali 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY 2013 #18

19 The Kuenkaew Family 5:30pm, May 31, 1993 Ban Muang Wa, Thailand Nakicenovic 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY 2013 #19

20 The Ukita Family 4:30pm December 16, 1992 Tokyo, Japan Nakicenovic 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY 2013 #20

21 Motorized Mobility vs GDP/capita Based on Schafer & Victor, SciAmer. October 1997:56-59 Nakicenovic Grübler, #21

22 Vehicle ownership (per 1000 people) Path Dependentcy of Vehicle Ownership 1000 WR average GDP per Capita US: US NZ Portugal Spain Czech Poland Greece Hungary Argentina Korea Russia Malaysia S Africa WR Saudi Thailand Mexico Brazil Indonesia Turkey India Peru Philippines China CA Italy Germany Sweden Swiss Aus FR JP Belgium Netherlands UK Denmark JP: ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 GDP per capita (US 2000 $) Nakicenovic GEA, #22

23 Nakicenovic Urban Transport Modal Split (share in # of trips) Source: GEA KM18 (2012) Legend of colours Cities in Asia and South America Cities in USA and Australia Cities in Europe 80 % 100 % 20 % Reference year 2001 Average over cities of the cited areas, reference year 1995 Delhi % 60 % Moscow Warsaw Singapore 60 % 40 % Hong Kong Asia, low income Shanghai 1995 Sao Paulo Asia, high income 80 % 20 % Graz 2004 Zurich China Western Europe Lackhnau India 1998 Melbourne Dubai Chicago Australia USA 100 % 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % Non-motorized mode (walking, cycling) GEA, #23

24 Nakicenovic GEA, #24

25 1. Stakeholder Workshop des APCC , Wien Nakicenovic 2013 #25

26 Transformation of Energy Systems One of 41 GEA Pathways 100% 80% GRIDS 60% GRIDS 40% LIQUDS 20% SOLIDS 0% Nakicenovic GEA, #26

27 Transformation of Energy Systems One of 41 GEA Pathways 100% 80% 60% GRIDS 40% LIQUDS 20% SOLIDS 0% Nakicenovic GEA, #27

28 EJ Global Primary Energy Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Kommerzielle Luftfahrt Nuklearenergie Mikrochip Dampfmaschine Elektrischer Motor Vakuumröhre Ottomotor Fernseher Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass Nakicenovic 2013 #28

29 EJ Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Einsparungen Savings Andere Other renewables E Nuklear Nuclear Gas Öl Oil Kohle Coal Biomasse Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~55% renewables by 2030 Nuclear phase-out (policy) Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil 0 Biomass Nakicenovic Source: Riahi et al, #29 Coal

30 EJ Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. REN Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass Nakicenovic Source: Riahi et al, #30

31 Nakicenovic Source: Grubler et al, #31 Policy Integration at the Urban Scale Simulated energy use, urban settlement of 20,000, using the SimCity Model

32 Add as many mail coaches as you please, you will never get a railroad by so doing Joseph A. Schumpeter New technological systems will not emerge by simply adding current and emerging technologies. A new paradigm is needed with convergence of innovative technologies. Nakicenovic #

33 Toyota I-Unit Nakicenovic #

34 Change of US Automobile CO 2 Emissions and Their Driving Forces Nakicenovic Grübler, #34

35 Nakicenovic 2013 #35 US Poster from WW II Fill those empty seats

36 Area Occupied by Various Transport Modes Nakicenovic UN-SUTP (2005) #

37 CITARO H 2 Fuel Cell Bus Nakicenovic #

38 Energy SuperGrid and MagLev Trains Source: EPRI Nakicenovic #

39 Potential Synergies between New Energy and Transport Infrastructures: Asian Supergrid Super Cables Power lines Electric Power Research institute MAGLEV Source: Y. Yamagata, NIES. 2010

40 Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004 Nakicenovic 2013 #40 40

41 Vision of a Sailing Railway Monorail using sails proposed by Henry R. Palmer in 1828 Nakicenovic Source: Marshall, 1938 #