Eco-vulnerability assessment and urban eco-zoning for global climate change --A case study of Shanghai, China

Transcription

1 2012 ESE Symposium, Newcastle,UK Eco-vulnerability assessment and urban eco-zoning for global climate change --A case study of Shanghai, China Xiangrong Wang (Prof.& Dr.) Center for Urban Eco-planning & Design Dept. of Environmental Science & Engineering Fudan University, China

2 Outline 1. Introduction: on climatic change 2. Comparison of the position and action of different countries 3. A Case study of Shanghai

3 1. Introduction : On climatic change Why we should pay much more attention to climatic change?

4 1.1 Alert of Climatic Change in the World This world faces the serious challenges of climatic changes in the recent decades:

5 Greenhouse effect & global warming Positive Correlation between CO 2 concentration and temperature change

6 1.2 High impact of climatic change Vulnerability of Some Estuary Cities: About 60% of the world populations live in the estuary cities and the areas, which have a high vulnerability in different scales. The coastal areas in lower altitudes threatened by being drowned 2012/7/18 6

7 The estuary city is located at the mouth of large rivers into the sea, which has a significant effect on the metropolitan area. It is also a vulnerable area with a high density of population, industrial, capital centralized and resources usage. It is in the forefront of the high impact of climate change

8 IPCC s concept:

9 The impact of climate change on this area is most directly and severe, and at the same time, with the most obvious change and fast urbanization, it makes the research here especially important and urgent. 2012/7/18 9

10 China: Temperature increases in recent 50 years

11 China: Extreme precipitation events in (blue: increase; red: decrease) More Extreme events?

12 China: Comparison of the Impact of Sea Level Rising in Different Regions Rising:30cm Rising: 60cm Drown Area (km 2 ) Lost(Yuan) Drown Area (km 2 ) Lost (Yuan) Pearl River Delta Yangtze Delta & North Jiangshu B B B B Yellow River Delta & P englai Bay B B

13 Introduction 1.3 Some Highlights on Climatic change Climatic change is the keyword of international politics in recent years IPCC issued the fourth assessment report 2007 s Nobel Peace Prize awarded for IPCC & Al Gore s Theme of Global Conference on Climate Change Temperature increases continuously in 57 years in China China s National Development and Reform Committee issued that State Strategies for climatic change in June 2007, which was the first politic document for climatic change adaptation. Actually, the research on climate change eco-vulnerability of regional and urban area has become one hotspot in the present time and in the future

14 According to the forecast, China's urbanization ratio by 2020 will reach to 58% -60%, and the national carbon emissions will also increase 60% than that in According to McKinsey (MGI) 2008 s report, about 1 billion people in China by 2025 will live in cities (which will include 219 one million-population cities, and 24 five million mega-cities) It is important to research the climate change eco- vulnerability of regional and urban area. It has become one hotspot in the present time and in the future. 2012/7/18 14

15 2. Comparison of the position and action of different countries EU USA, Japan, Australia, etc Developing countries Strongly called for more radical emission reduction measures, quantified emission reductions. Opposed to take immediate quantified emission reduction measures, insist on setting no reduction standard and making use of technology to take more relaxed measures. Opposed to commitments of further emission reduction, do not want the emission reduction measures impeding their own development. Island countries Petroleum export countries The international community should provide help to the island nation suffering from climate change as far as possible. Being low-pitched or against emission reduction. China Taking the strategy to reduce CO2 emission to 40% of 2005 s level

16 2.1 Assessment on Eco-Vulnerability of the Estuary City Thames:London East coast of Australia:Queensland Gulf of Mexico coast: Houston, USA Elbe: Hamburg, Germany Yangtze:Shanghai Distribution of estuary cities

17 Thames Estuary, London Objectives: Reduce 60% of GHG release by 2025 based on 2006 low-carbon capital Response Strategies----- Mitigation Low carbon economy Low carbon energy Family energy saving Low carbon release Zero carbon capital construction Low carbon transportation Flooding Control Environmental restoration Risk management 2012/7/18 17

18 Hudson Estuary, New York City Response Strategies -----Adaptation Protect the water sources Reduce the water demanding Flooding Control Water Treatment Water quality engineering Energy Saving 2012/7/18 18

19 Mississippi Estuary, New Orleans Response Strategies Adaptation & Mitigation Five steps plan: Carbon emission inventory Reduce release plan for 2015 Local climate act Policy and countermeasures Monitoring 2012/7/18 19

20 Rhine Estuary, Rotterdam Objectives: Reduce 50% of GHG release by 2025 based on 1990 Zero-carbon city Response Strategies----- Mitigation Sustainable city plan Energy port and carbon trade Sustainable transportation plan Public participation Innovation laboratory 2012/7/18 20

21 Sydney Objectives: Reduce 70% of GHG relea se by 2025 based on 1990 Zero-carbon city Response Strategies Adaptation Reduce GHG release Water saving Waste recycling Green energy National bicycle strategy Environmental policy 2012/7/18 21

22 Pearl river estuary, Hong Kong Objectives: Reduce 30% of GHG release by 2030 based on 2005 Response Strategies Adaptation Reduce fossil fuel Develop renewable energy Green building Reduce transportation carbon release Reforest Saving energy 2012/7/18 22

23 2.2 Comparison of Different Estuary Cities in Asia Asia is in the most vulnerable regions to climate change in the world. Climate change have deeply impacted all sectors, from social and economic security to human health, food production, infrastructure, water availability and ecosystem services. 2012/7/18 23

24 Because many of the largest cities in Asia are located at the coast and estuary within ma jor river deltas, they are even more susceptible to the impacts of climate change (Tab.1). Name of Asian City Tab. 1 Comparison of Eco-Vulnerability in Some Asian Cities Score 1 Score 2 Score 3 Score 4 Score 5 Score 6 Score 7 Score 8 Dhaka, Bangladesh Score 9 Jakarta, Indonesia Manila, Philippine Manila, Philippines Calcutta, India /7/18 24

25 Continuing Tab.1 Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam Shanghai, China Bangkok, Thailand /7/18 25

26 Continuing Tab.1 Hong Kong, China Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Singapore Note: Score 1- Vulnerability, Score 2 -Environmental Exposure, Score3- Storm threat Score 4- Sea-level rise, Score 5- Flooding/drought, Score 6- Socio-Economic 2012/7/18 Sensitivity, Score 7- Population, Score 8-Assets threatened, and Score Inverse Adaptive Capacity

27 The results showed that the vulnerability ranking to climat e change in some Asian cities is as Fig. Dhaka is No.1 by with the score 9, Jakarta and Manila are No.2 by with the score 8, and Calcutta is No.3 by with score 7, Shanghai and Ho Chi Minh are No.4 by with score 6, Bangkok is No.5 by with score 5, Hong Kong, Kuala Lu mpur and Singapore are No.6 by with score Vulnerability Dhaka Jakarta Manila Calcutta Ho Chi Minh Shanghai Bangkok Hong Kong Kuala Lumpur, Singapore Fig. Comparison of Eco-Vulnerability in Some Asian Cities 2012/7/18 27

28 A Case Study of Shanghai, China 拦湖淀山路太浦大蒸州塘港河河泖园港泖港秀泄塘泾斜胥塘浦人淀浦横潦泖泾小大掘石港港兴港龙大涨泾民河黄洞泾港横北苏蒲泾河新汇吴淞蕴横沥河环城封藻江浜西横沥浜练祁潘荻蕴走虬横沥长南横江浦朝马桃河苏港泾泾西浜藻塘东茭泾彭越浦河州俞泾塘泗塘沙南泗浦泾港浦泾蒲塘阳河州河真港漕河汇泾竹横南张家塘港塘龙华港港泾港贝港浦虹口港如大南江金江白杭州湾港汇家川张家浜莲泾浜治河江黄虬江虬江走马塘杨马树浦港河引杨河口黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江黄浦江中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游中上游保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区保护区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区浦东新区杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾杭州湾沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区沿岸地区苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北苏州河以北中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南苏州河以南中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及中心城及周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区周围地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区长江三岛地区

29 3.1 Study Area N E Shanghai is located at Yangtze Estuary with population over 23 million Favorable policy & economic impact and profound international influence

30 Some Characteristics of Shanghai Land area: km 2 population 23 million GDP: 1/16 of China Urbanization Ratio>80%

31 Ratio of Wetland, over 15% Two National Natural Reserves One of 200 Eco-regions in the World

32 It is in the hub point of two economic belts coastal economical belt and Yangtze river economic belt, With a T-shaped developing structure A case study of Shanghai is strategically important to the sustainability of Yangtze Delta, as well as has a great significance to other estuary cities in the world

33 3.2 Methodology Index system building for eco-vulnerability assessment It includes three 2- class fields, seven 3-class themes, 18 major 4-class indicators, and 29 specific indexes

34 Comprehensive assessment index system Riskiness(16) Objectives Fields Themes Indicators Indexes Units Sea-level rise and sea water and 1 A perennial sea-level hydrology rise mm 2 Days, Tmax>= 35 C Day Extreme climate disaster 3 Days, Torrential rain Day Climate change (6) Precipitation 4 Annual precipitation variability % Artificial Stress (10) Temperature Economic development River development Population 5 Average values of air temperature difference in previous years 6 Outskirts temperature difference in 7 Energy consummation SC/MTpa 8 Total consumption water S m 3 x Watershed year waste water discharging Tx Watershed year basin runoff volume rate of change % 11 Watershed year sediment load Tx10 9 reductions 12 Population density person/ km 2 Land use Pollution discharge 13 Cultivated reduction land 10 thousand hm 2 14 Reclaiming land from marshes km 2 /a 15 Total waste water discharge Tx waste air discharge S m 3 x

35 Responses(8) Sensitiveness (5) (Continuing Tab.) Society (1) Human health 17 The proportion of elderly and children % Natural Environment (4) Education & Publicity (1) Economic ability (3) Water resource Vegetation 18 Average annual rate of runoff quantity 19 Length of river water quality with Classes IV and better than the IV 20 Vegetation carbon sinking volume % % 10 thousand T Soil 21 Soil carbon sinking volume 10 thousand T Education publicity Total efficiency and 22 Population non-illiteracy rate and 23 GDP per capita RMB Yuan ( ) 24 Engel coefficient investment 25 Green put in percent of GDP percentage 26 Green coverage ratio % % % Eco-building & Eco-building 27 Natural reserve rate % Pollution control (4) 28 Industrial water reuse rate % Pollution 29 Urban sewage treatment control rate 35 %

36 3.2.2 Modeling for Shanghai climate change eco-vulnerability index (SHEVI) Based on 2008 TM remote sensing map in March 2008, land use map of Shanghai and basic data of relevant ecological factors, the urban topographic type, NDVI index, the coastal beach, the main streams, surface water environment, hydrological geology, and biological diversity protection factors were selected to construct the evaluation model of Shanghai climate change eco-vulnerability index (SHEVI): 3 SHEVI Ak W k i

37 Jamie Pittock 3.3 Results WWF Research Associate ANU Fenner School of Environment & Society Tempo-spatial change during the last 50 years of Shanghai 7 th April 2008 Temperature variation Precipitation variation The effects of Shanghai s urbanization on climate change

38 Urban annual mean temperature 0.51 /10a TA 为上海徐家汇气象站 年平均气温距平曲线, TA-L 为气温距平线性回归曲线,TA-RA 为气温距平 5 年滑动平均曲线 Fig.1 Annual mean temperature anomalies in Shanghai during

39 Urban mean temperature in spring 0.58 /10a Fig. Annual mean of spring temperature anomalies in Shanghai XuJiahui spot

40 Urban mean temperature in summer 0.35 /10a TA 为上海徐家汇气象站 年夏季平均气温距平曲线, TA-L 为夏季气温距平线性回归曲线,TA-RA 为夏季气温距平 5 年滑动平均曲线 Fig Annual mean of summer temperature anomalies in Shanghai Xu Jiahui spot 40

41 Urban mean temperature in autumn 0.48 /10a TA 为上海徐家汇气象站 年秋季平均气温距平曲线, TA-L 为秋季气温距平线性回归曲线,TA-RA 为秋季气温距平 5 年滑动平均曲线 图 4 上海徐家汇气象站秋季 年平均气温距平图 41 Fig.4 Annual mean of autumn temperature anomalies in Shanghai Xu Jiahui spot

42 Urban mean temperature in winter 0.60 /10a TA 为上海徐家汇气象站 年冬季平均气温距平曲线, TA-L 为冬季气温距平线性回归曲线,TA-RA 为冬季气温距平 5 年滑动平均曲线 图 5 上海徐家汇气象站冬季 年平均气温距平图 42 Fig.5 Annual mean of winter temperature anomalies in Shanghai Xu Jiahui spot

43 Comparison with annual national mean temperature anomalies change rate(tacr) /10a Season Shanghai Before 1984 After 1984 TACR China Spring Summer Autumn Winter Annual average

44 Difference between urban and suburb area TA 为上海奉贤气象站 年平均气温距平曲线, TA-L 为气温距平线性回归曲线,TA-RA 为气温距平 5 年滑动平均曲线 Fig.6 Annual mean temperature anomalies in Shanghai Fengxian spot 44

45 T/( ) Difference between urban and suburb area 年份 City center Suburb 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s City center( ) Suburb( ) Difference in city center and suburb (%)

46 Precipitation of climate change in Shanghai in recent 50 years Anomaly rate Normal probability of Shanghai urban precipitation was 78.9% and fell 5.3 % than that of previous 50 years. 2012/7/18 46

47 The effects of Shanghai s urbanization on climate change Distribution of Heat-Island in Shanghai in 1997, 2004 and

48 Riskiness Development intensity 地下水开采强度 主要区域 Ground water utilizing (2006) Construction Intensity (2006) 面积 (km 2 ) 面积比例 一级开采强度 宝山区 浦东新区 闵行区 长兴岛 横 % 沙岛 二级开采强度 嘉定区 青浦区 % 三级开采强度 金山区 奉贤区 % 四级开采强度 杨浦区 徐汇区 长宁区 普陀区 黄浦区 静安区 卢湾区 闸北区 虹口区 南汇区 崇明岛 % 五级开采强度 松江区 %

49 Riskness Air pollution (N0 2 &S0 2 ) 2001(a) 2005(b) 2001(a) 2005(b) 上海市二氧化氮空间分布格局图 ( 单位 : 毫克 / 立方米 ) 上海市二氧化硫空间分布格局图 ( 单位 : 毫克 / 立方米 )

50 The index of climate change eco-vulnerability Fig. The index of climate change eco-vulnerability in Shanghai ( )

51 Eco-vulnerability dynamics of climate change in Shanghai Riskiness Sensitivity Responses Fig. Eco-vulnerability dynamics of climate change in Shanghai ( )

52 3.3.2 Eco-vulnerability Zoning of Climate Change in Shanghai Riskiness Sensitiveness Vulnerability Zoning /7/18 52

53 Strategy for the 1st-Class Vulnerability Zone The 1st class eco-vulnerability subzone km 2 The 1st-class vulnerable subzone in Shanghai is km2, mainly in the Chongming Dongtan, Sheshan National Forest Park, Dong ping National Forest Park, the wetlands influe nced by South branches of the Yangtze River, Lakes and lakelet depressions in Dianshan Lake area, water source protection areas in Up per Huangpu River, and coastal buffer zone

54 Countermeasures and Strategies: To strengthen response to adapt sea level rising. To combine the measurements of slope protecting and beach guarding, the measurements of engineering and biolog y. To improve design standards, strengthen protective countermeasures of respons e to sea-level rise in coastal areas. To carry out light pressure measures such as sea water flooding and salinity in estuaries upstream by upland rivers and reservoir w ater transfer. 2 To enhance the marine environmental monitoring and early-warning capacity. Additional observations of coastal and island locations, construction of observatio n system should be highly attended. To enhance the monitoring capacity and impr ove the ability of aerial remote sensing, and telemetry on the marine environment. The coastal surge disasters early warning and response system should be establish ed to improve the marine disaster early-warning capacity. 3Coastal swamp grass, Phragmites wetland reclamation should be strictly prohibi ted. 4Improve water resource risk management awareness, effective prevention of su dden pollution accident in construction of water systems, and reduce the probabilit y of occurrence of sudden accident

55 Strategy for the 2nd-Class Vulnerability Zone km 2 The 2nd-class eco-vulnerable subzone covers an area of km2, mainly located in the northern part of Chongming Island, the main rivers (Southern Cross Irrigation Channel) of Chongming Island, Hengsha Island, Changxing Island, Nanhui Month, coastal wetlands of Hangzhou Bay and the main water system of Shanghai

56 Countermeasures and Strategies: (1) Establish a reasonable system of integrated coastal zone management, integrated decision-making mechanisms, as well as effective coordination mechanisms, timely processing of coastal zone development and protection issues arising in the operation. Establish integrated management demonstration areas. (2) Vigorously create a coastal protection forest, and establish a multi-species forest, multi-level, multi-functional protection forest engineering system. (3) Reasonable using bank resources and carry out coastal survey evaluation, development utilization and coastal protection planning. (4) Strengthen the comprehensive improvement of sea water channel and protection of ecological environment in Yangtze River estuary. (5) Establish a standardized, efficient system of meteorological disaster contingency plan and form a smooth flow of information, responsive, efficient handling of the emergency mechanism, and improve the ability of meteorological disaster emergency

57 Strategy for the 3rd-Class Vulnerability Zone km 2 The 3rd-class eco-vulnerable subzone covers an area of km2, mainly in the south zone of C hongming Island, Baoshan, Pudong New District and Minhang District, Downtown of Shanghai and West of Jinshan District

58 Countermeasures and Strategies: (1)Establish a sound early warning system for extreme climate. Organize a specialized early warning group, which can responsible for the extreme weather forecast in Shan ghai. (2)Establish eco-industrial parks in industrial zone to carry out the resource recycling and get resource using more efficiently. Rational use of energy, energy recycling and e ncourage the use of clean energy. Change the energy structure; reduce the emissions o f sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide. (3)Adjust the industrial structure to make the transfer from heavy industries towards light industries, and increase the intensity of investment and development of high-tech industry. (4)Develop appropriate legal assessment system and assess the emissions of factories. Closing the high energy consumption, high pollution, high emissions, and illegal sewa ge factory. (5)Control excessive extraction of underground water and land subsidence in the coas tal areas, to recharge artificial groundwater in appear funnel and ground subsidence area

59 Eco-planning for Eco-security Pattern in Shanghai

60 Eco-vulnerability evaluation of Chongming Island Disaster Index Eco-Index

61 Eco-vulnerability evaluation of Chongming Island Environmental Pressure Index Environmental Response Index Vulnerability Index

62 Planning for Ecological Security Pattern Current Situation Planning for Landscape Pattern Zoning for Ecological Cont

63 Eco-vulnerability evaluation on East Beach and Sea Level Rising

64 The impact of Sea Level Rising by 2050

65 The impact of Sea Level Rising by 2100

66 Eco-vulnerability evaluation

67 Ecological Zoning

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69 3.3.3 Relationships between climate change and urbanization of Shanghai Although climate change in Shanghai is influenced by global environment change in certain degree, the high-speed urbanization process in Shanghai accelerated the process of climate change. Tab. Relationship of climate change and Shanghai urbanization Indicators GDP Energy consump -tion Electricity consumption Vehicles Population density Urban infrastructure investment Annual temperature Annual precipitation Temperature difference of suburb 2012/7/18 69

70 The correlation ordination: temperature difference of urban and suburb > urban infrastructure investment > GDP creation> vehicle numbers >energy consumption > total of electricity consumption>population density, which indicated that the correlation of urban infrastructure investment and temperature difference of urban & suburb are most important. 2012/7/18 70

71 3.4 Conclusions In conclusion, climate change has become the largest impact factor on the sustainable development of human society, especially in estuarine urban area, like Shanghai. This paper is just a preliminary study on eco-vulnerability assessment, it aims to provide the scientific basis to develop the strategies to address global change. Comparison with some estuaries in the world will be very helpful

72 Thanks!