Jim Springer Ramesh Kashinkunti William Samuels (Leidos) Deborah H. Metz. August 27, 2014 Ohio One Water Conference

Transcription

1 Jim Springer Ramesh Kashinkunti William Samuels (Leidos) Deborah H. Metz August 27, 2014 Ohio One Water Conference

2 Background Greater Cincinnati Water Works provides water to approximately 1 million customers in Cincinnati and surrounding regions The Richard Miller Treatment Plant (RMTP) source is the Ohio River and provides about 87% of the water GCWW sells

3 Treatment Process Overview

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5 The Spill 7,500 to 10,000 gallons of 4 methylcyclohexane methanol (MCHM) leaked from a ruptured tank into the Elk River on January 9, 2014 Charleston s main water plant was just downstream and was unable to remove the MCHM through their plant A do not use order was issued for roughly 300,000 within the Charleston area

6 Elk River, West Virginia

7 When Will It Arrive? RMTP was constructed with storage allowing for plant shut downs during a spill Need ETA to increase sampling frequency, coordinate sampling schedule Need to fill distribution tanks to prepare for plant shut down

8 Ohio Cincinnati to Beckjord 10 miles Meldahl 25 miles Huntington 157 miles Elk River 200 miles West Beckjord Power Station Meldahl Dam Huntington, WV Virginia Elk River, Charleston, WV Kentucky

9 Simple Calculations Historically GCWW has used the simple calculation of time = distance/velocity NOAA velocity forecasts for portions of the Ohio River were used to estimate a time of travel for the spill Beginning to test the use of models to predict a spill ETA

10 ICWater Incident Command Water Based on model originally called RiverSpill Developed by Leidos, Inc. for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency One dimensional model GIS based with data from the USGS NHDPlusV1 Database Includes data for more than three million streams and rivers Real time flows obtained from USGS stream gages or user input

11 Assumptions Cross section of river is uniform velocity Uses flow lines for each water body (including lakes) Contaminant is fully mixed (assumes fully dissolved in water) Average flow conditions from NHD database can be scaled by the same factor for the whole reach of the water body Concentrations are calculated based on a first order decay rate Estimates dispersion (Fischer et al, 1979) Fischer, H.B., List, E.J., Koh, R.C.Y., Imberger, J. and Brooks, N.H. (1979) Mixing in inland and coastal waters, Academic Press, New York, 483 pp.

12 Inputs Source location and quantity Instantaneous release, or Continuous release Contaminant Library of contaminants with level of concern, half life, links to additional information User defined Ending criteria: distance or time cutoff Flow/velocity factor

13 Source Location and Quantity Location simple to pinpoint Quantity varied 7500 gal to 10,000 gal What quantity was contained? How much made it to the river? Duration unknown No witnesses for initial start of the leak Lag time due to containment berm and flow over land before entering the Elk River

14 Tank Calculator

15 Contaminant Methylcyclohexane Little data available for a level of concern 1.0 PPM initially provided by CDC Odor threshold was much lower Uncertain half life Were there other chemicals present?

16 Ending Criteria Used time of travel cutoff Rough calculations were used Assumed 7 days

17 Flow Factor / Velocity Factor Stream gage available on Kanawha River Variable flows on Kanawha River May not be the same proportion higher on the Ohio River Time of Elk River Release

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19 Results Took a considerable amount of time to complete the run (5+ hours) Too much uncertainty Differences from estimations Recently repeated the model run with more information: Mixed results Huntington and Portsmouth were hours off Cincinnati ETA was very exact Concentrations were within 20%

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21 Breakthrough Curve

22 Detection at Huntington Provided a definite detection time Clear peak in concentration and time Less uncertainty in flow changes Much shorter model processing time

23 40 4 methylcyclohexane methanol Concentrations on Ohio River Conc. (ppb) :24 19:12 0:00 4:48 9:36 14:24 19:12 0:00 4:48 9:36

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26 Model Predictions vs. Detections 30 GCWW MCHM River Detections (Preliminary Data, Not Quality Controlled) RMTP Intake, MP LMEF 10 5 SETT RMTP IC Water Model (Huntington) 0 MCHM Concentration (ppb) 1/14/14 12:00 1/14/14 16:00 1/14/14 20:00 1/15/14 0:00 1/15/14 4:00 1/15/14 8:00 1/15/14 12:00 1/15/14 16:00 1/15/14 20:00 1/16/14 0:00 1/16/14 4:00 1/16/14 8:00 1/16/14 12:00 1/16/14 16:00 1/16/14 20:00 1/17/14 0:00

27 IC Water Timing Predictions

28 Lessons Focus on timing, not concentration Trust the certain data 1 mph = 1.47 fps Units were not always listed in the model Know your contaminant In the case of MCHM, it readily dissolved and followed assumptions for IC Water Oil spills would float on the water surface making them difficult to model under these assumptions

29 Computer Hardware Huntington Model Run Elk River Model Run Intel Core 2 Duo 2.8 Ghz, SSD, 4GB RAM, Rating 10 min 5 min 1.5 Hours 1 Hour Intel i7, 2.7 GHz, 8 GB RAM, Hybrid SSD, Rating 5.9 The model processing time is significantly longer the further upstream you start Starting the model on a tributary appears to add to the processing time Use the best computer you have available Run multiple computers concurrently with different conditions

30 Recommendations Improve point source features to allow input of concentrations as a curve Separate stream and river layers so smaller stream layers can be turned off (faster loading, less noise on printouts) Display all units on data entry pages Provide link to NOAA forecasts for velocity factor page (limited stream gages on Ohio R.) Further develop the help document and user manual Input a start time and date instead of time=0

31 Version 3.3 Coming Soon! NHDPlus v 2 Improved Display of Stream Network Added Elevation Data Improved flow and velocity Improvements to Flow and Velocity using EROM Improved Network Navigation Added Additional Stream Names Improvements to the Catchment Layer Hydro region Extended across Canada and Mexico Enhanced NHD Fetcher Improved Quick Trace Flow Factor Access to NOAA River Forecast Data Ability to select Reach Date and Time for Downstream Trace Mass Balance Updates to Help File, Tutorial, and Installer

32 Questions?