Panel Discussions Energy to Enable Progress. Sithu Moe Myint AEC Forum 2018, Bangkok, Thailand 19 June

Transcription

1 Panel Discussions Energy to Enable Progress Sithu Moe Myint AEC Forum 218, Bangkok, Thailand 19 June 218 1

2 Rising City, Rising Business Energy to Enable Progress Sithu Moe Myint Executive Director & Country Manager MPRL E&P Pte Ltd. Myanmar s growing gap between energy supply and demand Energy initiatives to enable economic growth and development New natural gas assets being the backbone of progress Establishing the Myanmar Western Seaboard: the final chapter to establish the East-West economic corridor 2

3 Thousands (MW) Gap between Energy Supply and Demand is Growing in Myanmar Myanmar Electrical Power Demand Forecast vs. Available Supply Current Energy Mix/Portfolio, 217 2% 3% % 6 59% Hydropower Gas Coal Renewable Low-7.6% CAGR Medium-9.6% CAGR High-11.7% CAGR Current Supply References: 1) 215 Myanmar Energy Master Plan and 2) New Year Greeting by President of Myanmar, 218, retrieved 11 June 218 from Reference: 215 Myanmar Electricity Master Plan The current electricity supply is approximately 3 MW and effective demand is around 35 MW The demand for electricity is quickly outpacing available supply - current electrification rate is approximately 33% From last year to this year alone, Yangon s demand grew by about 4 MW 3

4 Million Standard Cubic Feet a Day Hurdles to Overcome to Realize Growth and Development Challenging geography and tremendous resource potential Natural Gas Demand by country in APAC region Population Density No State/ Region Population per square kilometer 8, 11% 11% 12% 12% 13% 13% 14% 14% 15% 16% 16% 17% 17% 18% 18% 18% % over global demand Top Exporters and Importers in APAC Union 76 6, +6.1% 1 Kachin 19 2 Kayah 24 4, 3 Kayin 52 2, 4 Chin 13 5 Sagaing 56 6 Tanintharyi 32 7 Bago Magway 87 China Japan India Thailand South Korea Indonesia Pakistan Malaysia Australia Bangladesh Taiwan Singapore Vietnam New-Zeland Other 9 Mandalay 26 Reference: BCG Energy, 217, Natural Gas: Market and Policy Hurdles to the Golden Age of Gas 1 Mon Rakhine Yangon Shan Ayeyarwaddy Nay Pyi Taw 164 Challenges Lack of reliable, affordable and efficient electricity is a significant barrier for foreign direct investment Significant volumes of natural gas have been found mainly offshore in challenging environments Reference: Myanmar Population and Housing Census 214 4

5 Energy Initiatives are Needed to Fuel Economic Growth and Nationwide Development Offshore Key Activities Opportunities exist in three focus areas: Upgrading transmission infrastructure and distribution networks Developing LNG-power projects (ambitious yet necessary for diversification) Finding and developing domestic natural gas resources LNG-Power Projects in Myanmar LNG-Power Project Capacity (MW) Target Completion Date Kanbauk 1,23 FY 221/22 Mee Laung Gyaing 1,39 FY 221/22 Ahlone 356 FY 221/22 Reference: Reference: VDB Loi, 218, Client Briefing Note 31 January 218 Block Name Forward Activities Exploration Appraisal Redevelopment M-5 1 well M-6 1 well AD-7 1 well A-1/ A-3 2 wells A-6 1 well A-7 1 well M-12 3 wells M-13 2 wells M-14 2 wells M-9 2 wells (Optional) 8 wells M-11 1 well MD-7 1 well AD-3 1 well A-5 1 well M-15 Planned

6 N Pipeline Infrastructure is Already in Place Myanmar offshore block A-6 has multiple tieback options Development Concepts PSC Operator Comparison of Field Size between Block A-6, Yadana and Yetagun Bay of Bengal L N G Existing Gas Pipelines Preferred Development Concept: Tie-back to Yadana Facilities with New Domestic Gas Pipeline to Nga Yoke Kaung Alternative Development Concept (1): China Myanmar Export Pipeline at Kyauk Phyu Alternative Development Concept (2): Floating LNG 6

7 GWH MMSCFD Thousands (MW) Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Daily Production (MMScfd) USD/MMBtu USD/MMScfd Myanmar & Thailand Creating shared value from shared gas resources Production Profile of Yadana, Yetagun, Zawtika and Offshore Block A Foreign LNG Market Spot Price (JCC) vs. Myanmar A-6 Gas Effective Purchase Price Avg. Diff. US$ 5.9/ MMBtu Foreign LNG Market Spot Price (JCC) [1] Myanmar A-6 Market Price [2] Myanmar A-6 Gas Effective Purchase Price for Government (7% minimum discount as per Production Sharing Mechanism) 12 Month Average Foreign LNG Market Spot Price (JCC) 12 Month Average Myanmar A-6 Gas Market Price 12 Month Average Myanmar A-6 Gas Effective Purchase Price for Government Yadana Yetagun Zawtika Offshore Block A-6 4, 3, Thailand Power Demand vs. Supply Myanmar Power Demand vs. Supply 2, 1, Supply Demand Thailand s Power Generation Classification by Fuel Type, 217 Renewable Hydro Electricity Energy 2% Imported 8% 12% Coal & Lignite Natural 18% Gas 6% Low-7.6% CAGR Medium-9.6% CAGR High-11.7% CAGR Primary Agriculture Sector Jade 23.6% Manufacturing & Services % Share of Exports, % 3.5% Minerals 23.4% Gas 41.4% [1] Office of Director for Commodity Market, Commerce and Service Industry Policy Group (218, April 1). Spot LNG Price Statistics. Retrieved from Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan: ng/index.html [2] Referencing Actual Yadana Gas Sales Price to Thailand, Ministry of Electricity and Energy 7

8 Establishing Myanmar s Western Seaboard: the Final Chapter to the Establishment of the East-West Economic Corridor Deep Seaports in Myanmar Industrial Zones in Ayeyarwaddy Region Kyaukphyu Nga Yoke Kaung Yangon Dawei Yangon-Pathein Existing Road East-West Connectivity Highway Link Existing Port Planned/ Proposed Deep Sea Port Existing Port Planned/ Proposed Deep Sea Port Operating Industrial Zone Planned Industrial Zone Myanmar is home to a number of rising industrial zones Abundant supply of low-cost labor and improving business conditions 3 industrial zones operating in Ayeyarwaddy Region A fourth industrial zone planned in Maubin Affordable and sustainable electricity supply are key enablers to drive investment 8

9 Sustainable Development: Co-Existence of Different Sectors Offshore Facilities Nga Yoke Kaung Bay Balanced Master Plan Fertilizer Plants Industrial Cities/Zones in Co-Existence Port of Koper, Croatia Export/Import Terminal Petrochemical Plants Amata City Chonburi, Thailand Fuel Storage Power Generation Facilities Offshore Supply Base Agriculture Terminal/ Facilities Pasir Panjan Terminal, Singapore 9

10 Thank You 1