IASCLiP FORECAST FORUM (IFF)
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1 IASCLiP FORECAST FORUM (IFF) June-July-August 2012 Disclimer: The forecst nd the discussions in this forum in no wy reflect the opinion of the contriuting personnel s institutions nd orgniztions. These forecsts re experimentl with voluntry contriutions from the institutions. Process: The forecst forum comprises of colition of climte scientists working on IASCLiP including the modeling working group of the IASCLiP. We hold discussions nlyzing the model forecst nd current conditions to come with consensus forecst. Acknowledgements: We thnk NOAA-CPC, Asi Pcific Climte Center (S. Kore), IRI, nd the US Ntionl Multi-model Ensemle Experiment (NMME) tem for mking the model forecst dt ville. We thnk Steven DiNpoli of COAPS/ FSU nd grdute student Michel Kozr of the Deprtment of Erth, Ocen nd Atmospheric Science, FSU for ssistnce in prepring the figures nd in writing the discussion. 1
2 Current conditions The L Nin from lst winter hs continued to wne during the spring, nd there re signs of positive SST nomly developing off the cost of South Americ (ottom pnel). However the het content in the top 300m of the ocen is still very low in the Estern Pcific nd the Atlntic Wrm Pool region (top pnel). In ddition, SSTs in the AWP region in JJA hve historiclly een relted to the previous winter s ENSO. Bsed on this, we would nticipte cooler thn norml AWP wkly_nino.gif 2
3 Current conditions In the lst month, NAO hs shifted from positive phse to negtive phse nd SST nomlies hve wrmed to ner norml. This could counterct the effects of lst winter s L Nin nd result in ner-norml AWP this summer. 3
4 Model Forecsts Model Reference No. of Ensemle memers Coupled to ocen? NCEP CFS v2 A 20 Yes COLA- RSMAS- CCSM3 B 6 Yes NASA GMAO C 9 Yes POAMA D 30 Yes GFDL E 10 FCI- FSU (previously ECPC) F 12 No. Prescried (persisted SST & IRI forecsted SST) CWB G 10 Yes IRI- ECHAM4p5 (Anom) H 12 Yes IRI- ECHAM4p5 (direct) I 12 Yes Index A B C D E F G Reference hvp://cfs.ncep.no.gov/menu/doc/ hvp://journls.metsoc.org/doi/s/ /2009mwr hvp://gmo.gsfc.ns.gov/reserch/modeling/cgcm/ hvp://pom.om.gov.u/ hvp://iridl.ldeo.columi.edu/sources/.models/.nmme/.gfdl- CM2p1/ hvp://ecpc.ucsd.edu/projects/gsm_model.html hvp:// suject/wpgm_cwb2_er_cfs.pdf H hvp://iridl.ldeo.columi.edu/sources/.models/.nmme/.iri- ECHAM4p5- AnomlyCoupled/ I hvp://iridl.ldeo.columi.edu/sources/.models/.nmme/.iri- ECHAM4p5- DirectCoupled/ 4
5 NCEP CFS v2 Verticl wind sher ( hp, in m s -1 ) 200 hp winds m s hp winds m s -1 c Precipittion (mm dy -1 ) d MSLP (hp) e Contours re intr- ensemle spred nd shding is nomly of the ensemle men in,, c, d, nd e. In f model climtology of the 28.5 C isotherm is shded in red nd the 28.5 C isotherm from the individul ensemle forecsts re contoured. Skill msked rinfll nomly for JJA2012 Skill msked SSTA for JJA C isotherm of SST f 5
6 NASA GMAO Verticl wind sher ( hp, in m s -1 ) 200 hp winds m s hp winds m s -1 c Precipittion (mm dy -1 ) d MSLP (hp) e Contours re intr- ensemle spred nd shding is nomly of the ensemle men in,, c, d, nd e. In f model climtology of the 28.5 C isotherm is shded in red nd the 28.5 C isotherm from the individul ensemle forecsts re contoured. Skill msked rinfll nomly for JJA2012 Skill msked SSTA for JJA C isotherm of SST f 6
7 POAMA Verticl wind sher ( hp, in m s -1 ) 200 hp winds m s hp winds m s -1 c Precipittion (mm dy -1 ) d MSLP (hp) e Contours re intr- ensemle spred nd shding is nomly of the ensemle men in,, c, d, nd e. In f model climtology of the 28.5 C isotherm is shded in red nd the 28.5 C isotherm from the individul ensemle forecsts re contoured C isotherm of SST f 7
8 CWB Verticl wind sher ( hp, in m s -1 ) 200 hp winds m s hp winds m s -1 c Precipittion (mm dy -1 ) d MSLP (hp) e Contours re intr- ensemle spred nd shding is nomly of the ensemle men in,, c, d, nd e. 8
9 FCI- FSU Verticl wind sher ( hp, in m s -1 ) 200 hp winds m s hp winds m s -1 c Precipittion (mm dy -1 ) d MSLP (hp) e Contours re intr- ensemle spred nd shding is nomly of the ensemle men in,, c, d, nd e. In f model climtology of the 28.5 C isotherm is shded in red nd the 28.5 C isotherm from the individul ensemle forecsts re contoured C isotherm of SST f 9
10 Precipittion (mm dy -1 ) COLA- RSMAS- CCSM3 Skill msked rinfll nomly for JJA2012 Contours re intr- ensemle spred nd shding is nomly of the ensemle men in. In model climtology of the 28.5 C isotherm is shded in red nd the 28.5 C isotherm from the individul ensemle forecsts re contoured C isotherm of SST Skill msked SSTA for JJA
11 Precipittion (mm dy -1 ) GFDL- C2Mp1 Skill msked rinfll nomly for JJA2012 Contours re intr- ensemle spred nd shding is nomly of the ensemle men in. In model climtology of the 28.5 C isotherm is shded in red nd the 28.5 C isotherm from the individul ensemle forecsts re contoured C isotherm of SST Skill msked SSTA for JJA
12 IRI- ECHAM4p5 (Anomly Coupled) Precipittion (mm dy -1 ) Skill msked rinfll nomly for JJA2012 Contours re intr- ensemle spred nd shding is nomly of the ensemle men in. In model climtology of the 28.5 C isotherm is shded in red nd the 28.5 C isotherm from the individul ensemle forecsts re contoured C isotherm of SST Skill msked SSTA for JJA
13 IRI- ECHAM4p5 (Direct Coupled) Precipittion (mm dy -1 ) Skill msked rinfll nomly for JJA2012 Contours re intr- ensemle spred nd shding is nomly of the ensemle men in. In model climtology of the 28.5 C isotherm is shded in red nd the 28.5 C isotherm from the individul ensemle forecsts re contoured C isotherm of SST Skill msked SSTA for JJA
14 Summry of Model Forecsts Feture NCEP CFS v1 NASA GMAO CCSM 3 CWB POAMA FCI- FSU GFDL- CM2p1 IRI- ECHAM4p5 (nomly) IRI- ECHAM4p5 (direct) Model s CONSEN. AWP Are Anomly Avg. Avg. No AWP No AWP Lg. Lrge Vries y ensemle Smll Averge Est Pc. Lrge Avg. Lrge Lrge Avg. Lrge Avg. Vries y Wrm Pool ensemle Lrge MDR Ver_cl Sher Strength of NASH Avg. Very Strong Slightly Strong Slightly Strong Avg. Wek Wk. Averge Wek Wek Stg. Slightly Strong The NMME models unnimously show development of El Nino condi_ons in the equtoril Estern Pcific sin. We re not discussing the rinfll forecst from these models t this _me, s the skill msks show lck of forecs_ng skill during JJA. 14
15 Beyond Summer 2012 forecst The dynmicl models con_nue to show wrming of SSTs in the Estern Pcific in the upcoming months, with the consensus plcing us in wek El Nino pvern ( C) y the end of the summer. This pvern is projected to persist through the end of the yer (leg pnel). The dynmicl model consensus hs generlly performed very well over the lst two yers (right pnel). These forecsts hve prompted NOAA to issue n El Nino wtch. 15
16 Beyond Summer 2012 forecst The NMME nd the CFS ensemle memers lso forecst the development of wek El Nino condi_ons this summer. However, the summer AWP is usully influenced y the previous orel winter s ENSO condi_ons, so there is s_ll lrge mount of uncertinty in the AWP forecst this summer. 16
17 Heuristic model forecsts Interpreting the model forecsts nd the current conditions we nticipte the likelihood of the following to hppen in JJA 2012 sed on our understnding (nd reserch) of the AWP impcts on remote nd locl climte: ) A slightly stronger thn norml Bermud/North Atlntic sutropicl high ) A ner norml or slightly smller thn climtology AWP re c) Ner verge verticl wind sher in the Atlntic MDR Our current reserch suggest tht in smll AWP yers, typiclly: i) Mid-summer drought in centrl Americ is enhnced ii) Strengthens the Gret Plins Low level Jet, increses moisture flux nd hence increses rinfll over centrl United Sttes iii) Enhnces verticl sher in the MDR region reducing the Atlntic hurricne ctivity iv) Pnhndle Florid se reeze would strengthen v) Lesser Antilles in the Crien would receive less rinfll with retrcted AWP nd ssocited colder SST But the cvet here is tht the forecst for AWP re in JJA 2012 is for ner norml or slightly smller thn climtology. The JJA 2012 forecst is not for n nomlously very smll AWP re. So the ove effects ssocited with smll AWP my not e clerly discernile in JJA Furthermore if ENSO continues to trnsition from cold to wrm (s the models suggest) nd het content in the AWP remins elow norml (s indicted y current oservtions), we could even hve weker thn usul Atlntic hurricne seson. 17
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