The Agricultural Policy Research in Africa APRA Milu Muyanga Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics Michigan State University

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1 The Agricultural Plicy Research in Africa APRA Milu Muyanga Department f Agricultural, Fd and Resurce Ecnmics Michigan State University WS#1 and WS#3 Fieldwrk Supervisrs Training Wrkshp Peak-Olam Suites, Abekuta, Ogun State, Nigeria February 8, 2018 Funded by UK aid frm the UK Gvernment

2 Agricultural Plicy Research in Africa (APRA) APRA cnsrtium is a five-year research prgramme Multi-cuntry studies Ghana, Nigeria, Ethipia, Tanzania, Malawi, Zimbabwe Kenya, Mzambique Study bjectives Examine hw African farmers engage with cmmercial agriculture frm prductin, t prcessing, and markets Assess the cnsequences f different types f pathways t agricultural cmmercialisatin n rural pr, wmen and yung peple (yuth)

3 Agricultural cmmercialisatin APRA defines agricultural cmmercialisatin as a prcess by which agricultural enterprises and the agricultural sectr as a whle rely increasingly n the markets fr the sale f prduce and acquisitin f prductin inputs, such as labur It is a part f structural transfrmatin prcess thrugh which ecnmies transitin frm subsistence agriculture (majrity f ppulatin is rural-based) t ecnmies dminated by manufacturing and service industries as majr surce f emplyment (majrity f ppulatin is urban-based)

4 Successful agricultural cmmercialisatin Successful when many peple are Stepping up: accumulating and investing Stepping ut: diversifying and creating nn-farm rural ecnmic activities Stepping in: cming back t farming r new farmers- medium-scale farms Unsuccessful when many peple are Hanging in: simply surviving Drpping ut: mving away r slipping int destitutin

5 Mdels f agricultural cmmercialisatin APRA will analyse fur different mdels f agricultural cmmercialisatin 1. Smallhlder cmmercializatin 2. Out grwer/cntract farming 3. Medium-scale cmmercial agriculture 4. Estate/plantatin

6 Outcmes f agricultural cmmercialisatin The cnsrtium is explring five utcmes 1. Empwerment f wmen and girls 2. Pverty- incme and cnsumptin measure 3. Inequality 4. Emplyment rates and cnditins 5. Fd and nutritin security

7 APRA wrk streams WS#1: What utcmes result frm the selectin f different types f cmmercialisatin? Explre hw different mdels f cmmercialisatin selected by husehlds impact n the main utcmes indicatrs WS#2: What pathways f agricultural cmmercialisatin lead t what utcmes? Analyse impacts f agricultural cmmercialisatin n livelihds ver an extended perid WS#3: What plicies prmte agricultural cmmercialisatin with what utcmes? Six multi-cuntry studies: e.g. Michigan State University studying Rise f medium-scale farms

8 Are Lcal Investr Farmers Making Small-Scale Farmers Mre Prductive and Cmmercialized? Evidence frm Nigeria T.S. Jayne*, M. Muyanga*, S. Liverpl-Tasie*, T. Awkuse*, A. B. Armlaran+ *Department f Agricultural, Fd and Resurce Ecnmics, Michigan State University + Faculty f Agriculture, Adekunle Ajasin University, Ond State, Nigeria Wrk Stream 1 Panel Study Funded by UK aid frm the UK Gvernment

9 Rapid rise f Medium-scale farms Recent evidence suggests rapid changing structure f land wnership in sub-saharan Africa In Nigeria, data frm farm listing exercise carried ut in September, 2017 and key infrmant interviews shw rapid investment by medium-scale investr farmers in the cuntry The bjectives f this study is t understand hw these investr farmers are influencing the behaviur and welfare f the millins f small-scale farm husehlds arund them Are they helping smallhlders t becme mre prductive and cmmercialized, r are they making it mre difficult fr them t d s?

10 Changes in farm structure in Tanzania ( ) Number f husehlds (% f ttal) % grwth in number f farms between initial and latest year % f ttal perated land n farms between ha Farm size ha 5,454,961 (93%) 6,151,035 (91%) % 5 10 ha 300,511 (5%) 406,947 (6%) ha 77,668 (1%) 109,960 (2%) % ha 45,700 (1%) 64,588 (1%) Ttal 5,878,840 (100%) 6,732,530 (100%) Surce: LSMS/Natinal Panel Surveys

11 Research questins 1. What is the effect f lcal investr farmers (medium-scale farms) n the prductivity and cmmercializatin f smallscale farm husehlds? 2. Are new land acquisitins by investr farmers pulling in prviders f agricultural inputs and services that imprve market access cnditins fr nearby small-scale farmers? Specific examinatin f: whether tractr rental markets are develping because f investr farmers renting ut their tractr whether the surpluses prduced by larger investr farmers is pulling in new private investment in crp prcurement 3. Are these land acquisitins displacing r cnstraining access t land by smallhlders, yuth and thers?

12 WS#1: Research questins 1. What is the net effect f lcal investr farmers (medium-scale farms) n the prductivity and cmmercializatin f smallscale farm husehlds? 2. Are new land acquisitins by investr farmers pulling in prviders f agricultural inputs and services that imprve market access cnditins fr nearby small-scale farmers? Specific examinatin f: whether tractr rental markets are develping because f investr farmers renting ut their tractr whether the surpluses prduced by medium-farms is pulling in new private investment in crp prcurement 3. Are these land acquisitins displacing r cnstraining access t land by smallhlders, yuth and thers?

13 WS#1: Research questins 1. What is the net effect f lcal investr farmers (medium-scale farms) n the prductivity and cmmercializatin f smallscale farm husehlds? 2. Are new land acquisitins by investr farmers pulling in prviders f agricultural inputs and services that imprve market access cnditins fr nearby small-scale farmers? Specific examinatin f: whether tractr rental markets are develping because f investr farmers renting ut their tractr whether the surpluses prduced by larger investr farmers is pulling in new private investment in crp prcurement 3. Are these land acquisitins displacing r cnstraining access t land by smallhlders, yuth and thers in nearby lcal cmmunities?

14 Methdlgy: Survey Main data surce is primary data cllected frm farm husehlds in tw states, Kaduna and Ogun Kaduna- LGAs: Chikun, Kachia, Sba Ogun- LGAs: Imekn Afn, Od Ona Ota, Ijebu Fieldwrk cnducted in three phases: Phase I: Cmplete listing f all medium- and large- scale farms in all Wards and Cmmunities in each f the identified LGA using a listing prtcl- carried ut in September-Octber, 2017 Phase II: First husehld survey: abut 800 smallhlders and 2500 medium/large farms systematically sampled fr interviews Phase: III: Secnd husehld survey

15 Methdlgy: Data [I] Survey instrument captures infrmatin n all the agricultural cmmercialisatin utcme indicatrs We are als cllecting GPS data f all husehlds: Prximity f small-scale farms t medium-scale investr farmers can be cmputed and variables cnstructed fr ptential influence f investr farms Run either CRE r FE mdels t cntrl fr unbserved hetergeneity in examining the relatinship between smallhlder cmmercializatin/ prductivity indicatrs and their prximity/influence f nearby investr farms We need t ensure a clear gradient f prximity in ur sample, which culd influence ur sampling design

16 Methdlgy: Data [II] We will als fllw up with qualitative and key infrmant surveys t grund truth initial findings frm statistical analysis. We may als d detailed retrspective surveys f a small grup f smallhlder farmers wh are fund t be particularly high n the prductivity/cmmercializatin scales T find ut mre abut the life histries f these farmers and the varius factrs influencing their current success

17 Causes and Cnsequences f Farm Size Distributins M. Muyanga (MSU), T.S. Jayne (MSU), K. Yebah (MSU), F. Dzanku (UG/Ghana), A. B. Armlaran (AAU/Nigeria), N. Mde (SUA/Tanzania), T. Shnhe (UCT/Zimbabwe) Wrk Stream 3 Plicy Study Funded by UK aid frm the UK Gvernment

18 Intrductin Recent evidence suggests that changing structure f land wnership in sub-saharan Africa The bjective f this study: Understand the causes and rate f land expansin f medium- scale farms Cnsider the plicy implicatins f changes in farm structure and the cncentratin f fd prductin and marketed utput Study cuntries: Tanzania, Ghana, Nigeria, Zimbabwe

19 Tmrrw belngs t peple wh prepare fr it tday --African Prverb--