Scottish Environment Protection Agency. A Climate Change Plan for SEPA Strategic Environmental Assessment. Environmental Report

Transcription

1 Scttish Envirnment Prtectin Agency A Climate Change Plan fr SEPA Strategic Envirnmental Assessment Envirnmental Reprt

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3 3 SEA ENVIRONMENTAL REPORT COVER NOTE SECTION 1 T SEA.gateway@sctland.gsi.gv.uk SEA ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPLATE COVER NOTE SECTION 2 An Envirnmental Reprt is attached fr A Climate Change Plan fr SEPA The Respnsible Authrity is: The Scttish Envirnment Prtectin Agency SEA ENVIRONMENTAL REPORT TEMPLATE COVER NOTE SECTION 3 Cntact Name Fr SEA: Fr Climate Change Plan: Neil Deasley June Graham, Jb Title SEPA SEA Gateway Senir Plicy Officer, Emerging Issues Cntact Address Envirnmental Strategy SEPA Crprate Office Erskine Curt The Castle Business Park Stirling. FK9 4TR Cntact Tel Cntact mail sea.gateway@sepa.rg.uk climatechange@sepa.rg.uk SEA ENVIRONMENTAL REPORT TEMPLATE COVER NOTE SECTION 5 Date 18

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5 5 A CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN FOR SEPA STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT ENVIRONMENTAL REPORT CHAPTER CONTENTS PAGE Nn Technical Summary 9 1. INTRODUCTION CONTENTS AND MAIN OBJECTIVES OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN (CCP) AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH OTHER, PLANS AND PROGRAMMES AND WITH ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION OBJECTIVES. 3. SUMMARY OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL BASELINE IN SCOTLAND WITH RESPECT TO CLIMATE CHANGE 4. ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF THE CCP, INCLUDING REASONABLE ALTERNATIVES 5. SUMMARY OF MITIGATION MEASURES REQUIRED Outline f Cntents and Main Objectives f the Climate Change Plan Relatinship f the Climate Change Plan with ther relevant plans and prgrammes and envirnmental bjectives Air Water Sil Bidiversity Landscape Ppulatin and Human Health Cultural Heritage Material Assets (Waste and Resurces) Climatic Factrs PART 1 - Assessment Methd PART 2 - Assessment Findings - Matrices PART 3 Assessment findings Cnclusins Assessment Summary Overview Assessment Summary By Tpic MONITORING SUMMARY AND NEXT STEPS APPENDICES 77

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7 7 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Table Title Page 1 Summary f SEA Steps 20 2 Key Facts abut the Climate Change Plan 22 3 Parts f the Climate Change Plan Assessed in the Envirnmental Reprt 23 4 Predicted Marine Envirnment Changes 29 5 Assessment Methd - Checklist 36 6 SEA Objectives used in the Assessment 36 7 Summary f Ptential Envirnmental Effects 43 8 Summary f Alternatives 71 9 Summary f Mitigatin Actins 73 Figure Title Page 1 Glbal CO 2 in Past Millennium 25 2 Surces f CO 2 in Sctland 26 3 Sctland s greenhuse gas emissins Temperature change in the marine envirnment

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9 9 A CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN FOR SEPA STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT ENVIRONMENTAL REPORT NON TECHNICAL SUMMARY 1. INTRODUCTION The Climate Change Plan 1.1 The Scttish Envirnment Prtectin Agency (SEPA) has prepared a Climate Change Plan (CCP) which sets ut the Agency s strategic aims and bjectives in the cntext f climate change frm 2007 t 2012 in the fllwing main areas: Envirnmental mnitring and analysis; Regulatin f industry Prvisin f advice Demnstrating leadership and exemplary perfrmance in minimising SEPA s eclgical ftprint; Infrming and influencing plicy; and Cmmunicatin and infrmatin services 1.2 The Scttish Gvernment s Climate Change Prgramme Changing ur Ways presents a lng term visin fr Sctland n climate change and sustainable develpment. It quantifies Sctland s equitable cntributin t reducing carbn dixide emissins and sets a Scttish target. A Climate Change Bill which prpses t set a statutry target f 80% reductins in carbn dixide emissins by 2050 will be put befre the Scttish Parliament in Spring With this cntext in mind, SEPA cnsiders that it has an bligatin t ensure that it is well psitined and practive in helping the Scttish Gvernment deliver its climate change targets and that it has effective measures in place t minimise the impacts f climate change. 1.3 The Plan sets ut: Current baseline f SEPA activities in the cntext f climate change Strategic aims and bjectives fr the perid (2007/8 activities are thse already cmmitted and under way) Specific actins SEPA will take t achieve the aims and bjectives Sme key perfrmance indicatrs 1.4 The Plan is structured arund immediate and lnger term actins and takes int accunt SEPA s activities cnnected with mnitring, advice, and regulatry activities. A cpy f the plan is available at Under the Envirnmental Assessment (Sctland) Act, the CCP requires a Strategic Envirnmental Assessment (SEA) as part f its preparatin. Purpse f this Envirnmental Reprt 1.5 The purpse f this Envirnmental Reprt is t fulfil the requirements f the Envirnmental Assessment (Sctland) Act 2005 by: Intrducing Strategic Envirnmental Assessment and its applicatin t the CCP;

10 10 Explaining the methd adpted fr assessing the significant envirnmental effects f implementing the CCP; Setting ut the ptential significant envirnmental effects (psitive and negative) f implementing the CCP; and Identifying where mitigatin measures are required t prevent, reduce r ffset any adverse envirnmental effects. Relatinship with ther Plans, Prgrammes & Objectives 1.6 Cnsideratin f the relatinship f the CCP with ther plans, prgrammes, strategies and envirnmental bjectives that it may influence r be influenced by is an imprtant part f Strategic Envirnmental Assessment. Understanding these relatinships will assist the identificatin f significant envirnmental effects and will als allw understanding f which plans may be best placed t implement any mitigatin measures required. Appendix 1 sets ut the plans and prgrammes cnsidered t be relevant t the CCP. 2. ENVIRONMENTAL BASELINE CLIMATE CHANGE IN SCOTLAND 2.1 Our climate depends n the Earth's temperature. Due t rapidly increasing cncentratins f carbn dixide (CO 2 ) and ther greenhuse gases in the atmsphere, the temperature f the planet is rising quickly cmpared with relatively stable temperatures thrughut the past millennium. The increasing use f fssil fuels fr energy generatin and transprt purpses means carbn dixide is the mst critical greenhuse gas. Althugh Sctland's carbn dixide emissins fell by 8% between 1990 and 2003, ur energy demands fr transprt, businesses and hmes increased by ver 10% during the same perid. 2.2 The fllwing sectin briefly explains bserved patterns f climatic change in Sctland ver the past 50 years as set ut in tw key dcuments: The Sctland & Nrthern Ireland Frum Fr Envirnmental Research (SNIFFER) 2006 publicatin Handbk f Climate Trends Acrss Sctland; and SEPA s State f the Envirnment 2006 Reprt 2.3 The SNIFFER handbk presents recrded changes in Sctland s climate in the last century and prvides a benchmark against which we can measure future climate change and develp strategies t cpe with its impact. The handbk includes analysis f histric data relating t temperature, rainfall, snwfall, air-pressure and sunshine. 2.4 The State f the Envirnment reprt cncludes that climate change is evident in Sctland frm bserved trends in temperature, rainfall and snw cver, higher river flws and sea levels. It als ntes ther climate-related changes, including shifts in grwing, breeding and migratin seasns and in species abundance and diversity. Observed Effects 2.5 The fllwing effects have been bserved since These are detailed in Chapter 3 f the main reprt: Average temperatures in Sctland have risen by mre than 1 C; There has been an upward trend in minimum temperatures, particularly in the east and west f Sctland; The average grwing seasn acrss Sctland has lengthened by 33 days; The number f frsty days has decreased in mst areas by 26%; Sctland ver the year is n average 20% wetter than it was in 1961, with a significant increase in winter rain recrded;

11 11 The number f days f snw cver has reduced; There has been an increase in the levels f prlnged rain and in the intensity f rain. Tgether, these can lead t flding; The seas arund Sctland have warmed by arund 1 C ver the past 20 years, which have prmpted changes in the cmpsitin, abundance and distributin f a number f marine species. Predicted Future Climate Change in Sctland 2.6 Based n mdels f prjected climate change 1 int the future, the fllwing effects are predicted unless significant cuts in glbal CO2 levels are made: Cntinued increases in average temperatures; Milder temperatures will result in wetter cnditins, particularly during the winter; Higher intensity f rainfall is likely; Lnger perids withut rain, particularly during summer; Snwfall will cntinue t decrease; Sctland s seas will cntinue t warm by up t 2.5 C Predicted Impacts n Sctland 2.7 If the abve predictins are accurate, the fllwing effects might be experienced in Sctland: Mre frequent and mre severe flding Summer drughts may be mre cmmn, particularly in the suth and east f Sctland Sea level rises, causing castal flding and land lss; Impacts n water quality eg flding causes run ff f pllutants; Significant changes t the abundance and distributin f Sctland s native wildlife; An increase in the number f new species; Pssible impacts n industry eg restrictins n abstractin during perids f drught Ecnmic and scial hardship caused by climatic factrs such as flding and drughts; 3. ASSESSMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN 3.1 An assessment was cnducted which sught t test each part f the CCP against a set f bjectives t test whether the CCP was likely t mve twards them. The use f SEA bjectives is a cmmn apprach t SEA and prvides fr a systematic prcess f establishing whether the CCP is likely t have any envirnmental effects. These SEA bjectives cver a wide range f envirnmental tpics that are prescribed in the legislatin. The bjectives used in this assessment were: TOPIC OBJECTIVE AIR Will the CCP cntribute t imprving air quality and meeting natinal air quality bjectives? WATER Will the CCP cntribute t the prtectin and enhancement f waterbdies? WATER Will the CCP cntribute t reductin f fld risk? SOIL Will the CCP cntribute t the prtectin f sil quality and functin? SOIL Will the CCP cntribute t reductin in rates f cntaminated and derelict land? CLIMATE Will the CCP cntribute t reductin in greenhuse gas emissins? CLIMATE Will the CCP cntribute t effective adaptatin t climate change? 1 See:

12 12 BIODIVERSITY Will the CCP cntribute t implementing the Scttish Bidiversity Strategy? HEALTH Will the CCP cntribute t bjectives fr prtecting and enhancing human health? MAT. ASSETS Will the CCP prmte apprpriate use f renewable resurces? MAT. ASSETS Will the CCP reduce energy cnsumptin and prmte efficiency? MAT. ASSETS Will the CCP reduce waste and encurage reuse and recycling? LANDSCAPE Will the CCP cntribute t the prtectin and enhancement f areas f landscape, amenity and recreatinal value? OTHER Des the CCP apply the plluter pays principle? OTHER OTHER Is the CCP in line with bjectives fr envirnmental justice? Des the CCP apply the precautinary principle where relevant scientific infrmatin des nt exist? 3.2 The results f the assessment are described in the cmpleted matrices in part 2 f the main reprt. These results are summarised belw and in the table n page EFFECTS ON AIR Generally, mst f the activities in the CCP will cntribute t an imprvement in air quality. In particular, by seeking t reduce the emissin f greenhuse gases, it is likely that ther plluting emissins t air will als be reduced. The activities cnnected with mnitring and analysis (sectin 8.1), regulatin (sectin 8.2), advice t peratrs (sectin 8.3) and infrming and influencing (sectin 8.5), shuld all lead t sme imprvements in air quality, althugh the cntributin f the CCP cmpared t ther drivers will likely be small. Where imprvements in air quality might ccur is difficult t predict as this will depend upn the lcatin f activities that may be regulated by SEPA One challenge the assessment has identified is the ptential cnflict between SEPA s regulatry activities and its climate change bjectives. Thrugh its regulatin f prcesses that may result in emissins t air SEPA may require the installatin f abatement technlgies that reduce the impact f thse prcesses n air quality. While these are an imprtant part f prtecting the envirnment, sme can be extremely energy intensive and have climate change implicatins in terms f increased greenhuse gas emissins. Activities and under regulatin in particular seek t build climate change factrs int regulatry decisin-making and which may therefre need t balance lcal envirnmental quality prtectin with reductins in greenhuse gas emissins. In these instances, it is imprtant that a full evaluatin is undertaken t ensure that the best slutin is fund that enables bth effective envirnmental prtectin f lcal air quality and efficient use f energy/reductin in greenhuse gas emissins within the plant. 3.4 EFFECTS ON WATER As with air, generally, mst f the activities in the CCP will cntribute t an imprvement in water quality. In particular, by seeking t reduce the emissin f greenhuse gases, it is likely that ther plluting emissins t water will als be reduced. The activities cnnected with mnitring and analysis (sectin 8.1), regulatin (sectin 8.2), advice t peratrs (sectin 8.3) and infrming and influencing (sectin 8.5), shuld therefre all lead t sme imprvements in water quality, althugh the cntributin f the CCP cmpared t ther drivers will likely be small. Where imprvements in water quality might ccur is difficult t predict as this will depend upn the lcatin f activities that may be regulated by SEPA One challenge that this assessment has identified is the ptential cnflict between SEPA s regulatry activities and its climate change bjectives. Thrugh its regulatin f prcesses that may result in emissins t water (eg waste water treatment wrks) SEPA may require

13 13 the installatin f abatement technlgies that treat the water t remve pllutants t an acceptable level prir t discharge t a receiving waterbdy. While these are an imprtant part f prtecting the envirnment, sme can be extremely energy intensive and have climate change implicatins in terms f increased greenhuse gas emissins. Activities and under regulatin in particular seek t build climate change factrs int regulatry decisin-making and which may therefre need t balance lcal envirnmental quality prtectin with reductins in greenhuse gas emissins. In these instances, it is imprtant that a full evaluatin is undertaken t ensure that the best slutin is fund that enables bth effective envirnmental prtectin f lcal water quality and efficient use f energy/reductin in greenhuse gas emissins within the plant Further, it was fund that the CCP did nt refer in any great detail t rle f sustainable fld management and SEPA s cntributins in this regard. Fr a plan cvering adaptatin t climate change, this was felt t be an missin that shuld be addressed. 3.5 EFFECTS ON SOIL As a result f ptentially reduced emissins t air and water (see abve), mst f the activities in the CCP will als cntribute t an imprvement in land quality. The activities cnnected with mnitring and analysis (sectin 8.1), regulatin (sectin 8.2), advice t peratrs (sectin 8.3) and infrming and influencing (sectin 8.5), shuld therefre all lead t sme imprvements in land quality, althugh the cntributin f the CCP cmpared t ther drivers will likely be small. Where imprvements in land quality might ccur is difficult t predict as this will depend upn the lcatin f activities that may be regulated by SEPA SEPA s wider activities aimed at reducing waste and increasing reuse, recvery and recycling will als reduce pressures n land. While these are nt specifically referenced in the CCP, activities in the CCP will supprt and prvide a framewrk fr the wider suite f activities fr which SEPA is respnsible fr. Few parts f the CCP were fund likely t have any part t play in reducing amunts f cntaminated and derelict land, althugh sme activities such as planning liaisn were fund likely t have sme lcal benefits. 3.6 EFFECTS ON CLIMATIC FACTORS As is t be expected fr a plan that is aimed at putting int place a series f actins t enhance SEPA s cntributin t climate change mitigatin and adaptatin, the assessment fund that the CCP was significantly cntributing t these bjectives. All f the actins in the CCP were either directly r indirectly cntributing t addressing climate change issues where SEPA has a rle. The actins are designed t take frward the Scttish Gvernment s climate change agenda as set ut in the climate change prgramme and in the prpsed climate change bill. Accrdingly, the CCP fits well with the ther plans, prgrammes and strategies that make up Sctland s plicy and legislative framewrk n climate change. 3.7 EFFECTS ON BIODIVERSITY Generally, mst f the activities in the CCP will cntribute t seeking t imprve bidiversity in Sctland. SEPA s primary cntributin t bidiversity is the prtectin f the quality f the envirnment thrugh envirnmental regulatin and therefre activities under regulatin (sectin 8.2) will assist in this regard. In particular, thrugh the actins under mnitring and analysis (sectin 8.1) and in assciatin with wider research activities, SEPA will imprve its ability and capacity t take actin and prvide advice n a number f significant bidiversity issues where its scientific, regulatry r advisry invlvement with bidiversity issues is less well-develped.

14 The likely cntributin that the CCP will make t imprving air, water and sil will have sme benefits fr bidiversity. Fr example, imprvements t water bdies as a result f reduced water use will have direct benefits fr aquatic bidiversity. The effects f the CCP are likely t be small cmpared t ther drivers hwever. Sme activities in the CCP are als specifically geared twards cnsidering the effects f climate change n certain receptrs and this will, when implemented, further cntribute t prtecting bidiversity frm the effects f climate change. 3.8 EFFECTS ON HUMAN HEALTH Generally, mst f the activities in the CCP will cntribute t seeking t imprve health in Sctland. The mst direct cntributin that the CCP will make t prtecting and enhancing human health will be fr thse activities cnnected t fld risk and fld warning. Flding is a significant risk t bth life and prperty and it is likely that bth the frequency and magnitude f flding in Sctland will increase due t climate change. Thrugh its mnitring and analysis activities (sectin 8.1), SEPA will better understand the risks frm future flding in Sctland. This will help bth in infrming and influencing (sectin 8.6) thrugh planning liaisn and in being able t identify new ways t disseminate fld warnings. This will make a cnsiderable cntributin t prtecting and enhancing human health Sme activities in the CCP (eg identificatin f targets fr human health that may be cmprmised by climate change, and will seek t imprve regulatry practices in rder t minimise risks and maximise pprtunities) are specifically geared twards cnsidering the effects f climate change n certain receptrs and this will, when implemented, further cntribute t prtecting human health frm the effects f climate change. Other activities which fr example target emissins frm transprt may als have sme benefits fr lcal air quality. 3.9 EFFECTS ON LANDSCAPE The activities in the CCP will nt, in themselves, likely have any significant effects n landscape. It is, hwever, pssible that sme actins in the CCP will indirectly cntribute t activities which may lead t landscape effects as part f the wider plicy and legislative framewrk n climate change, particularly in respect f renewables. SEPA s supprt in principle fr apprpriate use f renewables via the CCP may make a small and indirect cntributin t landscape issues such as: an increase in bimass prductin in Sctland which wuld have landscape effects in terms f the land use and crp mix grwn in parts f the cuntry. Other drivers such as bimass plicy, land suitability and price are likely t be much strnger cntributrs. an increase in wind energy generatin either n r ff shre. Again, ther drivers such as planning plicy, renewable energy targets (eg via the Renewables Obligatin (Sctland) Order 2007), price and wind resurce are likely t be much strnger determinants The extent f these types f effects arising frm the CCP as ppsed frm ther drivers is hwever very uncertain. Climate change itself is likely t have landscape impacts, fr example thrugh lss f land as a result f sea level rises, r thrugh ersin f river banks as a result f fluvial flding EFFECTS ON MATERIAL ASSETS 3.10 Overall, the CCP was fund likely t make a psitive cntributin t the bjectives cvered under material assets. In particular, the CCP is strngly fcused twards efficiency as a means f reducing greenhuse gas and ther emissins and therefre scres well in this regard.

15 15 4. MITIGATION MEASURES 4.1 The fllwing mitigatin measures are identified and which shuld be cnsidered as the CCP is taken frward frm draft stage and implemented. Mitigatin Identified Why By Whm and When SEPA shuld develp a methd fr allwing ptential cnflicts between regulatry bjectives and climate change bjectives t be recnciled. This shuld be fcused n win-win situatins where bth effective envirnmental prtectin and climate change bjectives can be achieved. As and when prpsals fr bimass and energy frm waste prpsals cme frward, these must be subject t mre detailed level assessment thrugh ther prcesses such as EIA t assess lcal impacts n the envirnment. There is a small pssibility that additinal mnitring may lead t an increase in SEPA s greenhuse gas emissins fr this activity (eg thrugh travel r frm pwer fr mnitring equipment). T address this, any future rise in emissins frm these activities shuld be factred int wider actins t reduce SEPA s verall carbn ftprint. The CCP des nt refer in any great detail t rle f sustainable fld management and SEPA s cntributins. The ptential future pprtunities that may available t SEPA under the Flds Directive 2 and ther legislatin shuld be referenced. A jined up apprach between SEPA s fld risk management/fld warning respnsibilities and its climate change bligatins shuld be cnsidered. CCP shuld make mre specific reference t, and be clear abut, SEPA s psitin n renewables and shuld, where apprpriate, identify activities which culd be used t prvide mre practive supprt fr apprpriate renewables technlgies In rder t secure better integratin between envirnmental prtectin and climate change bjectives withut adversely affecting lcal envirnmental quality. In rder t assess lcal effects n the envirnment frm these facilities. T ensure SEPA s verall greenhuse gas emissins are reduced. This was felt t be an missin As renewable energy is integral t climate change mitigatin SEPA when implementing activities and By regulatrs when prpsals cme frward SEPA via its Greening SEPA activities By SEPA as CCP is finalised By SEPA as CCP is finalised 2 EC Directive 2007/60/EC n the assessment and management f fld risks

16 16 5. CONSULTATION 5.1 This Envirnmental Reprt and SEPA s Climate Change Plan is ut fr cnsultatin between until 4 th March SEPA welcmes yur cmments. 5.2 Cmments shuld be made in writing by 4 th March 2008 t either: Envirnmental Strategy SEPA Crprate Office Erskine Curt The Castle Business Park Stirling. FK9 4TR r t climatechange@sepa.rg.uk

17 17 Summary f Assessment Findings (see Part 2 f main reprt fr details) SEA Objective Part f CCP Strategic Visin & Aims Mnitring & Analysis Regulatin Advice t Operatrs Greening SEPA Infrming & Influencing Changing Attitudes Summary AIR QUALITY WATER - QUALITY WATER FLOODING SOIL - QUALITY SOIL LAND USE CLIMATE - MITIGATION CLIMATE - ADAPTATION BIODIVERSITY HUMAN HEALTH LANDSCAPE PROMOTE RENEWABLES REDUCE ENERGY REDUCE WASTE POLLUTER PAYS ENVIRONM TAL JUSTICE PRECAUTION Y PRINCIPLE Mst parts f CCP wrking twards this bjective. Pssible issues cnnected with CO2 emissins frm abatement technlgies. Mst parts f CCP wrking twards this bjective. Mst parts f the CCP directly wrking twards this bjective. Mst parts f CCP wrking twards this bjective. Mst parts f CCP are unlikely t have significant cntributins t this bjective. All parts f the CCP directly wrking twards this bjective. Mst parts f the CCP directly wrking twards this bjective. Mst parts f CCP wrking twards this bjective. Mst parts f CCP wrking twards this bjective. Mst parts f CCP are unlikely t have significant cntributins t this bjective. Mst parts f CCP are unlikely t have significant cntributins t this bjective. Mst parts f the CCP directly wrking twards this bjective. Mst parts f CCP wrking twards this bjective. Mst parts f CCP wrking twards this bjective. Mst parts f CCP are unlikely t have significant cntributins t this bjective. Mst parts f CCP are unlikely t have significant cntributins t this bjective.

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19 19 A CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN FOR SEPA STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT ENVIRONMENTAL REPORT Intrductin CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION TO ENVIRONMENTAL REPORT 1.2 SEPA is a public bdy, riginally established in 1996, under the Envirnment Act SEPA is accuntable t the Scttish Parliament via Scttish Ministers. SEPA s main rle is t prtect the envirnment and human health. It des this by cntrlling activities that can cause harmful pllutin and by mnitring the quality f Sctland s air, land and water. SEPA publishes a wide range f envirnmental infrmatin and we advise Scttish Ministers, regulated businesses, industry and the public n best envirnmental practice. SEPA s visin 3 is ne where the envirnment is prtected and imprving and is the basis fr a successful and sustainable Sctland ; where Sctland s peple are well-infrmed and are included in envirnmental decisin making ; and where envirnmental regulatin has cntinued t evlve and fcused n reducing risks frm pllutin and activities that cause mst damage t the envirnment. 1.3 SEPA has prepared a Climate Change Plan (CCP) which will set ut the Agency s strategic aims and bjectives in the cntext f climate change frm 2007 t 2012 in the fllwing main areas: Envirnmental mnitring and analysis; Regulatin f industry Prvisin f advice Demnstrating leadership and exemplary perfrmance in minimising SEPA s eclgical ftprint; Infrming and influencing plicy; and Cmmunicatin and infrmatin services The Plan als gives sme key perfrmance indicatrs fr subsequent develpment. Purpse f SEA 1.3 The requirement fr Strategic Envirnmental Assessment cmes frm the Eurpean Directive n the assessment f the effects f certain plans and prgrammes n the envirnment cmmnly knwn as the SEA Directive. This is implemented in Sctland thrugh the Envirnmental Assessment (Sctland) Act The purpse f Strategic Envirnmental Assessment is t ensure that infrmatin n the envirnmental effects f a plan r prgramme is gathered and made available as the plan is prepared and implemented with a view t prmting sustainable develpment. The key bjectives f an assessment are: T prvide a systematic means f identifying, describing, evaluating and reprting n the envirnmental effects f a plan; 3 SEPA (2007) SEPA s Prvisinal Crprate Strategy: Our Prpsals fr

20 20 T try and prevent, reduce and/r ffset as far as pssible any pssible adverse effects f implementing a plan; T try and imprve the envirnmental perfrmance f a plan thrugh its preparatin. T ensure cnsultatin and engagement with the statutry Cnsultatin Authrities and the public; T mnitr implementatin f a plan fr any unfreseen envirnmental effects and t take apprpriate remedial actin where necessary. Purpse f this Envirnmental Reprt 1.5 The purpse f this Envirnmental Reprt is t: Intrduce Strategic Envirnmental Assessment and its applicatin t the CCP; Set ut the methd adpted fr assessing the significant envirnmental effects f implementing the CCP; Set ut the ptential significant envirnmental effects (psitive and negative) f implementing the CCP; and t Identify where mitigatin measures are required t prevent, reduce r ffset any adverse envirnmental effects. 1.6 The key stages f SEA and a summary f prgress relative t the CCP are briefly described in Table 1 belw: Table 1 - Summary f SEA steps SEA Stage Descriptin f stage Prgress Screening Determining whether the plan r A screening reprt was published fr prgramme is likely t have cnsultatin with the statutry significant envirnmental effects and cnsultatin authrities 4 n 16 th July whether an SEA is required This cnfirmed that SEPA Scping Envirnmental Reprt Adptin Deciding n the scpe and level f detail f the Envirnmental Reprt, and the cnsultatin perid fr it - this is dne in cnsultatin with the Cnsultatin Authrities (Scttish Natural Heritage and Histric Sctland). Publishing and cnsulting upn a reprt which describes the significant envirnmental effects which may arise frm implementing the plan, which identifies mitigatin measures t address adverse effects and which cmpares alternatives that were cnsidered during the plan s preparatin Publishing an SEA Statement which explains hw the Envirnmental Reprt and views expressed upn it wuld undertake SEA f the CCP. A scping reprt was prepared and sent t the Cnsultatin Authrities n 10 th August As SEPA is acting as a Respnsible Authrity, it must nt cnsult itself as a Cnsultatin Authrity and therefre the Scping Reprt was sent nly t Histric Sctland and SNH. A cpy f the Scping Reprt is available n request. A summary f the utcme f the Scping prcess is prvided in Chapter 4 f this reprt and detailed in Appendix 2. This reprt fulfils this stage. It sets ut the significant envirnmental effects f the CCP and evaluates the ptins cnsidered. This reprt is ut fr cnsultatin until 4 th March This will be prepared fllwing the cnsultatin perid. SEPA must take int accunt this reprt and any views 4 Under the Envirnmental Assessment (Sctland) Act 2005 these are Scttish Natural Heritage and Histric Sctland (n behalf f Scttish Ministers). SEPA is als a Cnsultatin Authrity but under sectin 3(2) f the Act des nt act in this capacity when it is ding SEA under its duties as a Respnsible Authrity.

21 Mnitring 21 have been taken int accunt fr adpting the plan Mnitring significant envirnmental effects after adpting the plan and taken remedial actin where necessary expressed upn it during the cnsultatin perid. Chapter 6 f this reprt explains hw we intend t mnitr. Once the plan is adpted, these arrangements will be put int place. 1.7 This Envirnmental Reprt has been prepared t meet the requirements f Schedule 3 f the Envirnmental Assessment (Sctland) Act In additin, it has been prepared as far as pssible using the Scttish Executive SEA tlkit 5. The blue bx at the start f each chapter explains which part f this Envirnmental Reprt is designed t meet which part f the Schedule 3 requirements. 5 Scttish Executive (2006) Strategic Envirnmental Assessment Tlkit -

22 22 CHAPTER 2 THE CONTENTS AND MAIN OBJECTIVES OF SEPA S CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH OTHER PLANS, PROGRAMMES AND STRATEGIES This sectin f the Envirnmental Reprt is designed t meet the requirements f paragraphs 1 and 5 f Schedule 3 f the Envirnmental Assessment (Sctland) Act Namely, an utline f the cntents and main bjectives f the Plan and its relatinship with ther qualifying plans and prgrammes and a summary f thse relevant envirnmental prtectin bjectives set at internatinal, cmmunity r member state level. Backgrund 2.1 SEPA is preparing a Climate Change Plan (CCP) which will set prvide a structured umbrella under which t c-rdinate and cllate the Agency s actin in the field f climate change fr the perid The plan identifies six main areas in which SEPA will take actin n climate change; Mnitring and analysis: Regulatin: Advice t peratrs: SEPA s envirnmental ftprint being an exemplar: Infrming and influencing: and Awareness and attitudes. 2.2 Table 2 belw sets ut sme key facts abut SEPA s Climate Change Plan Respnsible Authrity Title f Plan Plan Subject Scttish Envirnment Prtectin Agency A Climate Change Plan fr SEPA Climatic Factrs Perid Cvered Requirement fr the Plan Preparatin f the CCP is vluntary. Sctland s Climate Change Prgramme Changing ur Ways presents a lng term visin fr Sctland n climate change and sustainable develpment. It quantifies Sctland s fair cntributin t reducing carbn dixide emissins and sets a Scttish target. SEPA cnsiders that it has an bligatin t ensure that it is well psitined and practive in helping the Scttish Gvernment deliver the Scttish target and that it has effective measures in place t minimise the impacts f climate change. Accrdingly, this plan sets ut a series f actins ver five years t help achieve the Scttish Climate Change Prgramme. Frequency f Updates Pst 2012 Plan area The whle f Sctland. Summary f cntent /nature f The Plan sets ut: Current baseline f SEPA activities in the cntext f climate

23 plan 23 change Strategic aims and bjectives fr the perid (2007/8 activities are thse already cmmitted and under way) Specific actins SEPA will take t achieve the aims and bjectives Sme key perfrmance indicatrs The Plan is structured arund immediate and lnger term actins and takes int accunt SEPA s activities cnnected with mnitring, advice, and regulatry activities. Cntents f the CCP fr SEPA. 2.3 Set ut in table 3 are the cntents f SEPA s CCP and indicates thse parts f the CCP that have been assessed 6. The whle plan can be viewed at Table 3 Parts f the Plan t be assessed in the Envirnmental Reprt Chapter Cntent 1, 2, 3 (1) Cntext; (2) Intrductin; (3) SEPA s Rle Are these assessed in the SEA? N. These chapters prvide the cntextual backgrund t the CCP, including an intrductin t SEPA, Sctland s Climate Change Prgramme and an utline f SEPA s activities where these relate t climate change. 4 Strategic Visin Yes. This is the verarching visin fr addressing climate change in SEPA. 5 Strategic Aims and Objectives Yes. These represent the key bjectives that drive specific actins in rder t implement the strategic visin. (Nte, the strategic visin and aims and bjectives are assessed tgether) 6 Baseline N. This chapter summarises actins which are already being undertaken by SEPA t address climate change. These actins are already in place and have cmmitment and resurces allcated. 7 Immediate Actins - Existing Actins - Planned Actins fr 2007/8 8 Lnger Term Actins ( ) - Mnitring and Analysis - Regulatin - Advice t Operatrs - Greening SEPA - Infrming and Influencing - Attitudes N. This chapter summarises actins which are already being undertaken by SEPA t address climate change. These actins are already in place and have cmmitment and resurces allcated. Yes. Specific activities are identified under these headings. The specific actins are nt assessed individually, but as a basket f activities under each f the headings. Thus, fr example, specific actins relative t SEPA s regulatry activities are assessed tgether. 9 Perfrmance Indicatrs These will nt be assessed, but will be used as part f the mnitring requirements f the SEA. 10 Gvernance N. This chapter will prvide details f hw the CCP will be prepared, implemented and mnitred by the rganisatin. 6 Which parts f the CCP were t be assessed was agreed with the Cnsultatin Authrities as part f the Scping stage

24 24 Relatinship with ther Plans, Prgrammes & Objectives 2.4 Cnsideratin f the relatinship f the CCP with ther plans, prgrammes, strategies and envirnmental bjectives that it may influence r be influenced by is an imprtant part f Strategic Envirnmental Assessment. Understanding these relatinships will assist the identificatin f significant envirnmental effects and will als allw understanding f which plans may be best placed t implement any mitigatin measures required. 2.5 Appendix 1 sets ut the plans and prgrammes cnsidered t be relevant t the CCP. This list sets ut the relevant plans and prvides brief cmmentary n their relevance t the Plan. Given the very wide gegraphic and subject scpe f the CCP it is nt pssible r meaningful t identify every pssible plan r prgramme. Rather, nly the key plans and their relatinship t the CCP have been identified.

25 25 CHAPTER 3 SUMMARY OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IN SCOTLAND IN RESPECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE This sectin f the Envirnmental Reprt is designed t meet the requirements f paragraphs 2, 3 and 4 f Schedule 3 f the Envirnmental Assessment (Sctland) Act This requires SEPA t summarise the envirnmental characteristics f area likely and any existing envirnmental prblems which are relevant t the CCP. It als requires SEPA t explain the likely future evlutin f the envirnment. 3.1 Intrductin Set ut belw is a brief summary f the state f the envirnment in respect f the key areas that the Climate Change Plan fr SEPA will cver. Due t the wide gegraphic and issue cverage f the CCP, it is nt apprpriate r necessary t g dwn t a great level f detail in this baseline. This apprach was cnsidered apprpriate by the Cnsultatin Authrities in their Scping cnsultatin respnses. In 2006 SEPA published its State f the Envirnment Reprt fr Sctland Change Tmrrw Tday 7 which prvides lts f detail abut prevailing envirnmental cnditins and trends. Rather than repeat this wrk in this baseline, a summary f each tpic relevant t the CCP has been prvided and links t Change Tmrrw Tday prvided. 3.2 Climate Change in Sctland Cntext and Observed Impacts Cntext Our climate depends n the Earth's temperature. Due t rapidly increasing cncentratins f carbn dixide (CO 2 ) and ther greenhuse gases in the atmsphere, the temperature f the planet is rising quickly cmpared with relatively stable temperatures thrughut the past millennium. Atmspheric carbn dixide cncentratins remained relatively cnstant at arund 280 parts per millin (ppm) fr at least a thusand years, but cncentratins have risen since the mid-1700s, reaching 377ppm in 2004 (see Figure 1). Figure 1: Glbal carbn dixide - Carbn dixide cncentratin in Antarctic ice cres fr the past millennium recent atmspheric measurements (Mauna La) are shwn fr cmparisn Surce: IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: Wrking Grup 1 - The Scientific Basis (Fig 10b) 7 Change Tmrrw Tday can be dwnladed at:

26 The increasing use f fssil fuels fr energy generatin and transprt purpses means carbn dixide is the mst critical greenhuse gas. The main surces f greenhuse gases in Sctland are shwn in Figure 2 belw; Figure 2: Main surces and sinks f carbn emissins in Sctland Annual emissins f the six main greenhuse gases (carbn dixide, nitrus xide, methane, sulphur hexafluride, perflurcarbns (PFC) and hydrflurcarbns (HFC) expressed as carbn equivalents are shwn in Figure 3 belw. Althugh Sctland's carbn dixide emissins fell by 8% between 1990 and 2003, ur energy demands fr transprt, businesses and hmes increased by ver 10% during the same perid. Despite methane emissins falling by 35% between 1990 and , significant vlumes f carbn dixide and methane culd be released frm sils as a result f increased temperatures r changes in land use. Fr example, Sctland's peat uplands are vulnerable t changes in climate and land management and, if nly 0.1% is released as carbn dixide, Sctland's emissins will duble. Figure 3: Sctland's greenhuse gas emissins, Annual Emissins (millin tnnes f Carbn equivalent) Year Carbn Dixide Methane Nitrus Oxide HFC PFC Sulphur Hexafluride 8 Graph prduced by SEPA using data frm data UK Natinal Atmspheric Emissins Inventry

27 27 Observed Impacts This sectin sets ut bserved patterns f climatic change in Sctland ver the past 50 years as set ut in tw key dcuments: The Sctland & Nrthern Ireland Frum Fr Envirnmental Research (SNIFFER) 2006 publicatin Handbk f Climate Trends Acrss Sctland; and SEPA s State f the Envirnment 2006 Reprt The SNIFFER handbk presents recrded changes in Sctland s climate in the last century and prvides a benchmark against which we can measure future climate change and develp strategies t cpe with its impact. The handbk includes analysis f histric data relating t temperature, rainfall, snwfall, air-pressure and sunshine The State f the Envirnment reprt cncludes that climate change is evident in Sctland frm bserved trends in temperature, rainfall and snw cver, higher river flws and sea levels. It als ntes ther climate-related changes, including shifts in grwing, breeding and migratin seasns and in species abundance and diversity Significant bservatins described in these tw dcuments with respect t temperature, rainfall, changes in the marine envirnment and in Sctland s castline are described belw; Temperature Average temperature - Sctland's temperature recrds indicate average spring, summer and winter temperatures rising by mre than 1 C since This has been particularly prevalent in suthern and eastern Sctland. Average temperature increases are smallest in autumn. Maximum temperatures 24 hur maximum temperatures have similarly been increasing, n average by ver 1 C since This is particularly marked in winter and spring. The rise in maximum temperatures has been relatively cnstant acrss the cuntry. Minimum temperatures Since 1914 there has been an upward trend in minimum temperatures in bth east and west Sctland fr all seasns. Minimum temperatures in nrthern Sctland while increasing are ding s at a slwer rate than the rest f the cuntry and sme areas nt having experienced much increase at all. Minimum temperatures have nt increased at the same rate as maximum temperatures. Grwing Seasn Since 1961, the grwing seasn acrss the whle f Sctland has lengthened by 33 days. This is particularly marked in castal areas, in western Sctland where the grwing seasn is nw nearly 37 days lnger than in 1961 and the Shetland Islands where it has been extended by ver tw mnths. The increase in grwing seasn is mst influenced by an early start which n average nw ccurs 21 days earlier. Frsts Since 1961 there has been a 26% reductin in the number f days each year f air frst. This reductin has been cnstant acrss the cuntry, althugh sme small areas in nrthern Sctland have witnessed an increase. The reductin is mst nticeable in the spring and autumn seasns. Since 1961 there has been a 28% reductin in the number f days each year f grund frst, althugh mst f these reductins have ccurred since the early 1980s.

28 3.2.9 Rainfall Other Average rainfall Sctland ver the year is n average 20% wetter than it was in Winter precipitatin shws a clear upward trend since this time, with a 58% increase recrded acrss the cuntry. This is mst marked in the nrth (nearly 70% increase) and less marked in the east (36% increase). There is less variability in precipitatin acrss the ther seasns and patterns are less clear. The key trends fr nn winter mnths appear t be that the east has becme slightly drier during the summer and the west wetter in Spring. Heavy rain There has been a trend f increasing heavy rainfall in winter, particularly in the nrth and west. There is a link between the number f days f heavy rain and verall rainfall. Snw Cver The number f days f snw cver has reduced acrss the cuntry. This is particularly prevalent in autumn where decreases f ver 70% have been recrded (nearly 83% in western Sctland). Drught There has been very little change in the maximum number f cnsecutive dry days with little lng term trends recrded since Overall there is a clear cntrast in the number f cnsecutive dry days between east and west Sctland, but there wuld appear t be n significant changes since Flding There is a clear trend f an increase in the levels f maximum five day precipitatin (ie maximum recrded precipitatin ver a five day perid in any year) f abut 20%. A steady increase has been recrded acrss all Sctland. Increases in prlnged precipitatin and rainfall intensity may lead t greater flding. There is n clear trend in windspeeds r number f gale days acrss the cuntry. Since 1961, the number f sunshine hurs in a day has increased slightly ver the year, but a mre significant increase is recrded acrss Sctland during autumn. While there are significantly different patterns f sunshine acrss the cuntry, changes in thse patterns appear nt t shw any trends The Marine Envirnment The seas arund Sctland have warmed by 1 C ver the last 20 years. Warmer seas have prmpted changes in cmpsitin, abundance and distributin f a number f marine species including planktn, fish, sea birds, whales, mammals, dlphins and prpises. Warm water fish such as red mullet, sardines and anchvies have been caught ff Sctland's cast since Sme planktn species, which frm the basis f the marine fd web, have migrated nrth by up t 10 degrees latitude (abut 700 miles). Changes in planktn distributin and abundance have serius cnsequences nt nly fr the marine ecsystem but fr the ability Figure 4 Temperature Change in the Marine Envirnment Surce: Scttish Ocean Climate Status Reprt , Fisheries Research Services, Fisheries Research Service (2005) Scttish Ocean Climate Status Reprt

29 29 Table 4 Predicted Marine Envirnment Changes 10 WHAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING WHAT COULD HAPPEN CONFIDENCE Temperature (air and sea) Ocean salinity Strms and waves Large-scale ceanic prcesses Sea level Acidificatin Shelf-sea Stratificatin Seabed (nearshre and ffshre) Sea surface temperature (SST) and air temperature ver the sea within the midlatitude Nrth Atlantic and UK castal waters have been rising by ºC per decade ver the past 30 years. Warming is greatest within the English Channel and Nrth Sea where temperatures have risen faster than land temperature. Warming is als evident in waters f the upper 1500 m f the Nrth Atlantic. An increasing trend in surface salinity since 1995 arund the Nrth Atlantic is less evident in the UK shelf-seas. Deep waters f the Nrth Atlantic have freshened ver the past 40 years. There has been a greater incidence f severe winds and increasing wave heights (by abut 2% per year) in western and nrthern UK territrial waters ver the past 50 years. The Atlantic Meridinal Overturning Circulatin (MOC) helps t maintain relatively mild temperatures in nrth-west Eurpe. Sme bservatins suggest that the MOC has reduced in strength by up t 30% since the early 1990s. Hwever, ther studies disagree with this interpretatin. Glbal average sea level has risen during the 20 th century by between 1 and 2 mm per year. Satellite measurements suggest the rise was arund 3 mm per year between 1993 and Ocean acidity has been relatively stable fr ver 20 millin years. The cean is becming mre acidic as increasing atmspheric carbn dixide (CO 2) is absrbed at the sea surface. Mdels suggest that surface ph has decreased by 0.1 ph unit since pre-industrial times. Stratificatin is the term used when the sea becmes layered due t changes in temperature and salinity with depth. The seasnal cycle f stratificatin in shelf-seas is subject t significant interannual variability in timing and strength. Mdelling suggests that ver the last 40 years, the timing f peak stratificatin in the Irish Sea has becme later by abut 20 days. Unknwn. At present there are n changes definitely attributable t climate change. Climate change mdels anticipate that SST will cntinue t rise in all waters arund the UK cast, with strnger warming in the suth-east (~ ºC per decade in the suthern Nrth Sea) than the nrth-west (~ ºC per decade at Rckall). Difficult t predict, but changes in precipitatin, evapratin, cean circulatin and ice melt have the ptential t impact upn salinity. Different mdelling appraches prject different scales f change but indicate that wind strengths and wave heights will increase. Mst climate mdels anticipate sme reductin in strength f the MOC due t increased freshwater influence in high latitudes, but cntinue t shw verall future warming f the UK climate. An abrupt MOC shutdwn leading t rapid cling remains a high-impact, lw-prbability event. Our level f understanding is hampered by bth mdel and bservatin limitatins. During the 21 st century it is likely that glbal average sea level will rise by between 9 and 88 cm, relative t 1990, but will nt be unifrm arund the wrld. The anticipated range f relative sea-level rise by the 2080s (relative t the mean) is 20 t 80 cm in suth-west England and 0 t 60 cm in Sctland. Mdel prjectins suggest that the change in average ph in UK waters this century will exceed its current range f variatin. The full impacts f acidificatin remain largely unknwn but rganisms such as crals, sme planktn, shellfish and sea urchins are expected t becme less able t prduce calcareus parts, such as shells, by the middle f this century. Pssible changes in timing and strength f stratificatin. Changes t rainfall seasnality and extreme events may impact stratificatin in areas f freshwater influence, such as estuaries. Changed sediment cnditins at sme castal envirnments, such as partially enclsed lagns and bar-built estuaries, may ccur. Sediment supply may be altered if climate change results in the mdificatin, cnstructin r remval f sea-defences. HIGH LOW HIGH (present) LOW (future) LOW MEDIUM HIGH (fr ph change) LOW LOW 10 Extract frm Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (2006) Annual Reprt Card (

30 30 f the ceans t absrb carbn dixide and ultimately regulate the Earth's climate. The Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership Annual Reprt Card 2006 ( prvides a summary f the predicted climate change effects n the marine envirnment. This summary is set ut in Table 4 n the previus page. The Scttish Oceans Status Ocean Climate Status Reprt fr 2004 and als prvides further infrmatin abut predicted changes Castline Sea level is rising all arund the UK castline, but at a slwer rate arund Sctland because the Scttish mainland is still rebunding fllwing the last ice age. Nnetheless, all Scttish mainland gauges have recrded a sea level rise ver the lng term, with the lngest individual recrd at Aberdeen indicating an average sea rise f 0.6mm per year since Sea level rise increases the risk f flding f castal and estuarine twns and leads t ersin f intertidal habitats and lss f bidiversity. This, cmbined with evidence f increasing strminess and wave height in the Nrth East Atlantic, suggests that future strm surges will prbably becme mre severe, leading t increased risk f castal flding. 3.3 Climate Change in Sctland - Predicted Impacts This sectin summarises the likely evlutin f Sctland s envirnment as a result f predicted impacts frm climate change. This sectin is designed t meet the requirements f paragraph 2 f Schedule 3 t the Act The speed and impact f climate change will be becme mre severe if we remain heavily dependent n fssil fuels. Indeed, it is predicted that temperatures in Sctland may rise by up t 4 C by the end f the century, with cnsequences including milder and wetter winters, htter and drier summers, mre extreme weather events and rising sea levels Climate Change Scenaris fr the United Kingdm: The UKCIP02 Scientific Reprt presents fur climate change scenaris. These scenaris are based n glbal emissin scenaris frm the Intergvernmental Panel n Climate Change (IPCC) and utputs frm Hadley Centre climate mdels 12. Due fr release in 2008, UKCIP08 13 will intrduce prbabilities t climate predictins fr the first time in rder t imprve risk assessment and management f climate change UKCIP02 predicts a number f impacts that may ccur in the UK by The key findings f this wrk suggest: 1.5 t 2 C warmer in winter; up t 3.5 C warmer in summer; and pssibly 4 C warmer in autumn. Summers will suffer sme significant heat waves. Milder temperatures in winter will result in wetter cnditins, with extremes f rainfall leading t serius flding events. Precipitatin will increase by ver 30% in the east f the cuntry and up t 20% in the west during the winter seasn. Cnversely, summer rainfall will be arund 40% less, particularly in the suth and east f Sctland. 11 Available at 12 See: 13 Fr details, see: