AGRICULTURE AND FERTILIZERS ANALYSIS, LESSONS, SOLUTIONS. ASH DEC Umwelt AG

Transcription

1 AGRICULTURE AND FERTILIZERS ANALYSIS, LESSONS, SOLUTIONS Seite 1

2 1. GLOBAL TRENDS Seite 2

3 FERTILIZERS DEMAND DRIVERS Global population increase >1-2% p.a. Bio-fuel production in USA, Latin Americas and Europe Steep income growth in some developing countries Change of diet in Asian countries High energy prices Natural resources constraints (water, land) Tight food supply High prices for agricultural commodities Seite 3

4 2. INCOME AND NUTRITION Seite 4

5 BETTER NUTRITION BECAUSE OF ESCAPE OF 300 M PEOPLE FROM POVERTY The amount of people who earn less than 1 $ per day, decreased from 32% to 19% between 1990 und Economic development in Asia caused this phenomenon. About 300 M people there escaped from the extreme poverty. The most immediate effect of additional income became a nutrition improvement. Due to UN forecast this trend will continue. Source: UNO Millennium Development Goals Report 2007 Seite 5

6 MEAT CONSUMPTION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES STILL WELL BEHIND Africa 15,4 kg/person/year Asia 30,1 Developing Countries 30,7 World 41,5 Latin America 63,4 Developed Countries 83,1 Northern America 123, Source: FAO Seite 6

7 MEAT CONSUMPTION GROWS MUCH FASTER THAN POPULATION Billion People Source: FAO World Population World Meat Consumption Million Tonnes Seite 7

8 GLOBAL MEAT CONSUMPTION WILL ALMOST DOUBLE BY THE YEAR 2030 Million Tonnes Developed Developing 0 Source: FAO Seite 8

9 PROTEIN-RICH DIET NEEDS TRIPLE PRODUCTION OF CORN AND SOYA 1.800, , ,0 kg/jahr Feldfrüchte 1.200, ,0 800,0 600,0 400,0 200,0 0,0 Source: IiASA Vegetarian Mixed Meat-based (Western type) Seite 9

10 3. BIO- FUELS Seite 10

11 DRIVERS FOR BIO-FUEL PRODUCTION The global utilization of bio-fuels is subject to the following criteria: o Ecological benefits o Reduction of CO 2 emissions o Economic benefits (without subsidizing) Ecological benefits and reduction of CO 2 emissions: Results of the Brazilian program Proalcool from 1975 to 2005: Reduction of CO 2 emissions: 644 Mill. t Saving of fossil fuels: 778 MBOE (Million Barrels Oil Equivalents) Saving of foreign currency: USD 72 billions Source: JSA Ltda, Phosphates 2008 Conference Seite 11

12 ENERGY & COST BALANCE FOR BIOFUELS Economic results of the production of ethanol: MJ per ton USD/Barrel Wheat (EU) 1,3 154,0 Corn (USA) 1,5 75,0 Beetroots (EU) 1,9 Sugar Cane (Brazil) 8,0 32,0 Sugar Cane (Australia) 51,0 Sugar Cane (Thailand) 46,0 Sugar Cane (Brazil 2010) 10,0? Conclusion: Production of biofuels is economically viable in many countries outside Europe, provided the crude oil price is above USD 75,-/barrel. Source: JSA Ltda, Phosphates 2008 Conference Seite 12

13 STRONG GLOBAL DEMAND FOR BIO-FUELS 1 US Gallon = 3,785 l Source: PIRA / Fondsfinans Fertilizer Investor Conference Dec Seite 13

14 NATIONAL BIOFUEL STRATEGY IN THE US 3,4 3,0 2,6 2,2 1,8 Billion Bushels (1 bu = 0,0254 t) One barrel of bio-fuel from US corn costs in 2007 about $ 75,- and is competitive with oilbased fuels (1 Barrel = 158,957 l) % of total US corn use 18% 25-30% 1,4 1,0 0,6 6% 0,2-0,2 88/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07F 11/12F Source: FAO, USDA Seite 14

15 4. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS Seite 15

16 CHINA BECOMES A CORN IMPORTER - PRODUCTION BELOW DEMAND Million Tonnes Production Exports Consumption Stocks Production Gap Favorable Production Years Stocks Continue to Fall /87 88/89 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 Exports Declining Source: FAO Seite 16

17 EVEN GOOD HARVESTS IN 2006/2007 DID NOT COVER GLOBAL DEMAND 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 Billion tons Production Consumption US, China and India produce over 40% of the world s wheat and coarse grains. Near Perfect Weather Year Production Gap 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,0 1982/ / / / / / / / /07 Sources: FAO, USDA Seite 17

18 2006/2007 GRAIN STOCKS AT THE LOWEST LEVEL IN 30 YEARS Wheat & Coarse Grains Million Tonnes Year-End Grain Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio Grain ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14,7% for 2006/07 are the lowest in over 30 years. Percent / / / / / / / / /07 Source: FAO Seite 18

19 IN THE FUTURE GRAIN CONSUMPTION WILL CONTINUE TO GROW 1,5 Billion Tonnes F 1,2 45% 60% 0,9 0,6 0,3 0,0 Food Animal Feed & Other Uses Source: FAO Seite 19

20 INCREASING CAPITAL FLOWS TO AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES A study, conducted by Barclays Capital among 240 institutional investors, has revealed that 100 billion Dollars may be currently invested in agricultural commodities. Until the end of 2008, this investment could increase to billion Dollars. Darin Newsom, a Senior Analyst of DTM means that the market of agricultural commodities has become a market for acknowledged investment strategies. The influx of investments has lead to price increases, increased volatility and eroded the cyclical nature of markets for agricultural commodities, says Newsom. Source: U.S. News & World Report, 24. February Seite 20

21 HIGH GRAIN PRICES Source: USDA, CBOT / Fondsfinans Fertilizer Investor Conference Dec Seite 21

22 5. FERTILIZERS Seite 22

23 URBANIZATION AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT REDUCE ARABLE LANDS SMALLER ARABLE AREAS REQUIRE INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE WITH HIGHER SOIL FERTILIZATION Seite 23

24 HIGH YIELD GROWTH POTENTIAL IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Source: FAO Seite 24

25 FERTILIZER BY CROP USE Source: IFA Seite 25

26 STRONG GROWTH OF FERTILIZER SALES Seite 26

27 CONSUMPTION OF FERTILIZERS IN Global Fertilizer Consumption 2006 Change 2007 Change Million tons Nutrients N 96,9 +4,7% 100,0 +3,2% P2O5 38,6 +4,5% 40,0 +3,8% K2O 26,5 +2,1% 28,7 +8,1% Total 162,0 +4,2% 168,7 +4,1% Source: IFA Seite 27

28 STEEP ROCK PHOSPHATE PRICE INCREASE Rock phosphate prices, Morocco USD / t Source: Phosphates 2008 Conference, Paris, Feb /2008 Seite 28

29 ROCK PHOSPHATE EXPORTS CONTROLLED BY FEW COMPANIES Source: Phosphates 2008 Conference, Paris, Feb /2008 Seite 29

30 6. URBAN P-RESOURCES Seite 30

31 EUROPEAN PHOSPHATE CONSUMPTION EXCEEDS PRODUCTION With exception of ICL and YARA, all European P-fertilizer producers have to import phosphate products. Seite 31

32 t / Jahr EU ANNUAL P 2 O 5 MINING & CONSUMPTION EU mining capacity EU annual phosphate consumption EU P-recycling potential from existing sludge ash EU total P- recycling potential YEAR 2006: EU P 2 O 5 CONSUMPTION= Mio. t EU P 2 O 5 MINING = t Seite 32

33 POTENTIAL PHOSPHATE MINING FROM URBAN RESOURCES IN THE EU 10 M t SLUDGE 3 M t MBM SNB SLUDGE INCINERATOR Moerdijk/NL > t P 2 O 5 can be recycled from sludge and MBM > t P 2 O 5 are lost in landfills and other forms of disposal Seite 33

34 NEW SLUDGE INCINERATORS IN EUROPE OPERATOR LOCATION to DM p.a. Status ARA Tobl St. Lorenzen (IT) Operation EEF ENSA Posieux (CH) Operation Stuttgart Mühlhausen Stuttgart (DE) Operation GUP Vodokanal Süd St. Petersburg (RU) Operation GUP Vodokanal Nord St. Petersburg (RU) Operation Thames Water Belfast (UK) Construction United Utilities Shell Green (UK) Construction Emter Altenstadt (DE) Operation Biomasseverwertung Großwilfersdorf (AT) Commissioning Bazenheid Bazenheid (CH) Construction ERZ Zürich Zürich (CH) Project Infraserv Gendorf Gendorf (DE) Operation AWV Pinneberg Pinneberg (DE) Project Stadtwerke Crailsheim Crailsheim (DE) Construction Mosvodokanal Moskau (RU) Project Kievvodokanal Kiev (UA) Project Istanbul WWTP Istanbul (TR) Project Seite 34

35 Thank You for Your Attention! L. Hermann,, tel.: , l.hermann@ashdec.com Seite 35