AUDRAIN Jérôme First International PhD-Day of the AAEE Student Chapter Vienna University of Technology Friday, 30 March 2012

Transcription

1 AUDRAIN Jérôme First International PhD-Day of the AAEE Student Chapter Vienna University of Technology Friday, 30 March 2012

2 * Geographical approach (resources access, boundaries) of the subject * Identification and understanding of the mechanism of the energy transition in the oil producing * Potential of renewable energy sources in the oil producing * Consequences of a modified energy mix in the oil producing and on the relationships between oil producing and oil consuming Can the energy transition process and the RES development modify the usual approach of energy policy in the oil producing? Can the energy transition process and the RES development have geopolitical consequences?

3 Characteristics of energy transition : Period of change of worldwide energy mix Today Energy transition High carbon mix Low carbon mix Domination of fossil fuels Weak part of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) High GES emissions level Growth of energy demand and difficulties to cope with demand Change of consumers behaviour Development of new technologies (CCS, cars, energy efficiency, alternative fuels) Decisons at a political level Domination of Renewable Energy Sources Electricity storage Smart grids Hydrogen Nuclear Gen IV Electric cars

4 Climate change Energy demand growth IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010 IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010 The search for energy security Lots of conflicts on the energy markets Need to have a safe and continuous supply of fossil fuels Limit import of fossil fuels RES are a solution to become independent in energy production Hydrocarbons scarcity Peak oil phenomenon Association for Peak Oil Studies (ASPO)

5 «Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our mental models about the world, and lifting the blinders that limit our creativity and resourcefulness» Peter Schwartz, president of the Global Business Network (GBN) Short chronology of strategy planning Ancient Greece to 19th Century 19th 20th Century 1970 s 1970 s to 2012 Military strategy (Sun Tzu) Henri Fayol Frederic Winslow Taylor Mary Parker Follett Pierre Wack Shell planners Global Business Network LIPSOR (French laboratory run by Michel Godet) Main principles : a tool to drive the change in private firms or in public institution Scenario planning is not forecasting The goal is to look at different paths of the future Scenario planning takes into account the uncertainty and the ruptures Method of scenario planning takes into account the long term consequences Scenarios are used to may people think

6 General Conventional oil production Non-conventional oil production Political Subsidies Energy security Oil income distribution Climate change Foreign policy Risks Natural risks Political risks Technological risks Definition of the main driving forces and Building the hypotheses Economics Job creation Added value CO 2 price Price of RES electricity Economic growth Energy price Technologics Development of new technologies Energy efficiency Unconventional oil Unconventional gas Electric car Peak oil Human and social Demographic growth Social acceptance

7 24 : Acceptance 23 : Dem_growth 22 : Tech_risks 21 : Pol_risks 20 : Nat_risks 19 : Peak 18 : Elec_cars 17 : Unc_gas 16 : Unc_oil 15 : Effic_ener 14 : Tech_dvpt 13 : Ener_price 12 : Eco_growth 11 : Prix_elec 10 : CO2 cost 9 : CVA 8 : Employ 7 : For_pol 6 : Climate_ch 5 : Oil_rent 4 : Ener_sec 3 : Sub 2 : Demand 1 : Hydroc_prd LIPSOR-EPITA-MICMAC MICMAC software 1 : Hydroc_prd 2 : Demand 3 : Sub 4 : Ener_sec 5 : Oil_rent 6 : Climate_ch 7 : For_pol 8 : Employ 9 : CVA 10 : CO2 cost 11 : Prix_elec 12 : Eco_growth 13 : Ener_price 14 : Tech_dvpt 15 : Effic_ener 16 : Unc_oil 17 : Unc_gas 18 : Elec_cars 19 : Peak 20 : Nat_risks 21 : Pol_risks 22 : Tech_risks 23 : Dem_growth 24 : Acceptance P P P 0 P P P 0 3 P 2 0 P 2 P 0 P P P P P P P P P P P P P P 2 P P 0 0 P P P P 0 0 P P P P 0 P P 2 0 P 0 0 P P P P P P P P P 2 P P P 2 0 P Sector 1 Most influential and less dependent Sector 4 Few effects and few dependencies Sector 2 Very influent and very dependent Sector 3 Few influent on the system but depends on the evolution on sectors 1&2

8 MICMAC results Most influent variables Natural risks Economic growth Unconventional oil Technological risks Peak oil Energy prices Politic risks Unconventional gas Hydrocarbons production Demand growth Most dependent variables Hydrocarbons production Economic growth Energy prices Demand Employment Oil income Technological development Energy security Peak oil Electricity prices

9 MACTOR software Step 1 : Definition of the actors and objectives Actors OPEC oil-producing Non-OPEC oil producing Oil consuming Energy firms State Sovereign Wealth Funds Civil society International Renewable Energy Agency Objectives Control of petroleum market Development of hydrocarbons Meeting the domestic demand Development of technological know-how and market growth Political stability and social development Management of oil income Social claim Promotion of renewable energy sources

10 Ii IRENA Soc Sov_funds Etat Majors Consocount non-opep OPEP IRENA Soc Sov_funds Etat Majors Consocount non-opep OPEP LIPSOR-EPITA-MACTOR LIPSOR-EPITA-MACTOR MACTOR software Step 2 : Direct/Indirect influences and direct/indirect dependences between actors MID MIDI OPEP non-opep Consocount Majors Etat Sov_funds Soc IRENA OPEP non-opep Consocount Majors Etat Sov_funds Soc IRENA Di Dominant actor State OPEC oil producing Non-OPEC oil producing Autonomous actor Sovereign Wealth Funds Intermediary actor Dominated actor Oil consuming Energy firms IRENA Civil society

11 Somme absolue EnR_promot Rev Oil_rent Stab_dvpt Croiss_ent Conso_int Hydrc_dvpt If_market LIPSOR-EPITA-MACTOR Somme absolue EnR_promot Rev Oil_rent Stab_dvpt Croiss_ent Conso_int Hydrc_dvpt If_market LIPSOR-EPITA-MACTOR Step 2 : Relationships between actors and objectives Objectives Control of petroleum market Development of hydrocarbons 1MAO Meeting domestic demand Development of technological know-how and market growth Political stability and social development Management of oil income Social claim Promotion of renewable energy sources User OPEP non-opep Consocount Majors Etat Sov_funds Soc IRENA Nombre d'accords Nombre de désaccords Nombre de positions MACTOR software 2MAO OPEP non-opep Consocount Majors Etat Sov_funds Soc IRENA Nombre d'accords Nombre de désaccords Nombre de positions

12 Main convergence State and non-opec oil producing OPEC oil producing and Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) Energy firms and state Energy firms and non- OPEC oil producing Results of the analysis *development of new oil resources *new markets and new diplomatic partnerships *diversification of oil supplies for consuming *SWF are the tool to manage and to invest the oil income *the biggest oil firms (Saudi aramco for example) are the national oil compagnies which are owned by the states *non-opec represent an opportunity to develop new markets for energy firms Main divergence State and civil society Non-OPEC oil producing and civil society IRENA and SWF OPEC oil producing and civil society *Energy policy choices can lead to protest against technologies like nuclear energy *prices of energy household *exploitation of unconventional oil (oil sands for example) have consequences on the environment *non-opec have often unconventional oil (Canada, Brazil) *public opinion is worried about environmental damage *SWF could become a solution to finance RES projects *IRENA encourages the development of RES but has no financial power *OPEC sell a maximum of oil at the highest price they can *For people, cost of energy is important in the bugdet and they try to reduce them

13 Main actors OPEC oil producing Non-OPEC oil producing State Sovereign Wealth Funds Energy firms Main objectives Control of petroleum market Development of hydrocarbons Meeting domestic demand Management of oil income Main variables Economic growth Hydrocarbons production Energy prices Political risks Technological risks Energy security Hydrocarbons scarcity Components of the main hypotheses for building domestic scenarios Development of RES in the oil producing and consequences on relationships between oil producing and oil consuming Part of the subsidies in the energy transition process Role of the oil rent in the worldwide development of RES

14 Each scenario is made up four blocks Sensitivity analysis Central hypothesis *The variables we use to modify the relationships between oil producing and oil consuming Conclusions Description of the scenario

15 Hypotheses Sensitivity analysis Description Conclusion develop renewable energy sources for their energy production. What could be the consequences on the energy markets? Level of oil and gas supply Share of RES in the energy mix Energy prices Development of RES to meet domestic demand (Russia for example) means more hydrocarbons which could be used for export By exporting more oil and gas, the can earn more money and develop new commercial partnerships(c hina, India ). reinforce their leading position in the world as major energy suppliers. With their Sovereign Wealth Funds, they can invest all over the world in different sectors (industry, sport, cultural industry).

16 Hypotheses Sensitivity analysis Description Conclusion Oil consuming develop renewable energy sources for their energy production. How could oil producing react? Level of oil and gas supply which are not exported towards oil consuming Share of RES in the energy mix Energy prices Hydrocarbons scarcity Development of RES to meet domestic demand means oil consuming need fewer hydrocarbons. Breakdown of oil exports for oil producing. To maintain their influence they can use the lever of energy prices have less influence on the energy markets. Lower oil sales means lower oil revenues are opposed to an economic slowing down. Oil consuming are less dependent on oil suppliers

17 Hypotheses Sensitivity analysis Description Conclusion develop renewable energy sources for their energy production. What could be the potential of RES development (Russia for example)? What woul be the energy be used for? Technical potential of RES Share of RES in the energy mix Energy prices Management of oil income use RES for a part of their electricity production. It is a solution to produce decentralized electricity. Creation of jobs for the building and maintenance of RES power plants. Use of oil income Need for oil producing to develop regulatory structures and laws Energy policy defined to promote RES (KwH price, subsidies)

18 Hypotheses Sensitivity analysis Description Conclusion do not develop renewable energy sources directly but finance some projects. At the same time, OPEC oil producing maintain oil prices at a high level. Technical potential of RES Cost of RES technology Energy prices Management of oil income use oil income to finance RES projects in foreign. Abu Dhabi uses Masdar Initiative to become a Green Silicon Valley. Green technologies become a solution to diversify the economy. have a green rent which completes oil income. do not create jobs but they earn money with their investments. Hence, social redistribution is guaranted

19 In all the scenarios, the energy transition process has consequences on the relationships between oil producing and oil consuming. The development of RES in the oil consuming and the reduction of fossil fuels in their energy mix is a risk for oil producing. For the moment, oil producing such as Russia are not interested in RES because of their hydrocarbons resources. They prefer to save energy with a proactive energy efficiency policy. The use of scenarios allows the identification the main driving forces which could drive energy transition in the oil producing in one direction or another.