DEVELOPMENT ENERGY AND I LI?' *'«< (J. Proceedings of the International Conference on the Economics oi Energy and Development. UNIVERSITAtSBIBLIOTHEK

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1 ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT Proceedings of the International Conference on the Economics oi Energy and Development Edited by Ragaei El Mallakh and Carl McCuire Professors of Economics, University of Colorado UNIVERSITAtSBIBLIOTHEK HANNOVER TECHNISCHE INFORMATiQNSBIBLlOTHE* i I LI?' *'«< (J ' t' ( Ui'jr The International Research Center for Energy and Economic Development Boulder, Colorado

2 CONTENTS List of Tables ix CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1 Professor Ragaei El Mallakh University of Colorado CHAPTER 2 Forecasts of Energy Supply and Demand, Dr D C T Frewer Economic and Social Forecasts Divison Shell Oil Company CHAPTER 3 Economic Policies of Exporting Countries 25 Mr Youssef Akbar Counselor for Energy Affairs Embassy of Iran Mr Olufemi Am Economic Counselor Embassy of Nigeria Dr Mahmoud Amin Chairman of the Board Western Desert Petroleum Company Ministry of Petroleum Egypt Mr Farouk Akhdar College of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Saudi Arabia H fc Mahmoud Khalid Al Adasani Assistant Under Secretary for Oil Affairs Ministry of Finance and Oil Kuwait CHAPTER 4 Towards a New World Energy Order 45 Dr Herbert E Hansen, Vice President, Government Agreements, Gulf Oil Corporation CHAPTER 5 The Effectiveness of Pricing Policies of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) 53 Professor Wayne Leeman, University of Missouri Mr William A Bachman Senior Editor, Oil and Gas Journal Dr Constantine D Fliakos, Vice President, William D Witter, Inc Mr Frank Hardy, Esso Middle East Exxon Corporation CHAPTER 6 Absorptive Capacity and Investment Policies in the Arab World 69 Professor John Bridge, University of Durham, England Dr Mihssen Kadhim, Post-doctoral Fellow, Department of Economics Univer sity of Colorado Mr taher El-Jehaimi, Department of Economics, University of Libya (Depart ment of Economics, University of Colorado) Mr Michael Bachman, Department of Economics, University of Colorado Dr Mohamed Fmaish, Alternate Executive Director, International Monetary Fund CHAPTER 7 The National Science Foundation Research in Internationa! Energy Modeling 89 Dr F Thomas Sparrow, Deputy Director Office of Systems Integration and Analysis National Science Foundation VII

3 VIII CHAPTER 8 United States Energy Requirements and the Middle East 115 The Honorable James McClure, United States Senate CHAPTER 9 Oil Money and World Money 127 Dr Thomas Stauffer, Harvard University Dr Mohamed Fmaish, Alternate Executive Director, International Monetary Fund Mr Lawrence Dash United States Department of the Treasury CHAPTER 10 Consuming Governments' Oil Supply Policies and Arrangements 143 Mr William Lindenmuth, General Manager, Middle East Department, Mobil Oil Corporation CHAPTER 11 Surplus Funds and Regional Development 151 Dr Hassan Selim, Deputy Director, Economic Affairs, Abu Dhabi Fund for Arab Economic Development, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates Professor Ayad Al-Qazzaz, California State University, Sacramento Mr Yousef Al-Awadi, The Arab Planning Institute, Kuwait (Department of Economics, University of Colorado) CHAPTER 12 OPEC A Cartel or a Group of Competing Nations? 175 Mr Shukri Chanem, Director General of Economic Affairs (on leave), Ministry of Petroleum, Libya Mr Farouk Akhdar, College of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Saudi Arabia Mr Robert Dowell, United States Department of State Mr Ronald Lewison, Vice President, William D Witter, Inc Dr M Hassanam, Director, Economic Divison, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Vienna, Austria Mr Frederic Johnson, The Federal Energy Administration CHAPTER 13 Oil and Alternate Energy 191 Mr Robert W Baldwin, President, Gulf Energy and Minerals Company CHAPTER 14 Prices and Producers An OPEC View 205 Dr M Hassanam, Director, Economic Division, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Vienna, Austria CHAPTER 15 Exploration in Energy Choices 213 Mr S David Freeman, Director, The Energy Policy Project

4 LIST OF TABLES CHAPTER 2 1 Summary 1973 Energy Forecast Premises 10 2 US Energy Demand 11 3 USA Most Probable Energy Supply 13 4 Free World Primary Energy Demand 14 5 Energy Demand Versus Domestic Supply 15 6 World Published Proven Crude Oil Reserves 16 7 Free World Conventional Oil Supply 17 8 Conventional USA Oil Import Potential 18 9 Potential Energy Savings U S A Optimistic Energy Supply 20 CHAPTER 3 1 Egyptian Petroleum Corporation Agreements, CHAPTER 7 1 Reference Energy System, Detail of Table 1, Options Available in Conversion of Coal to Electricity 91 3 Input/Output Model 94 4 Total Energy Versus Employment (Direct and Indirect) Per Dollar Delivered to Final Demand, Change in Total Energy Employment Requirements for a 10 Per Cent Increase in Final Demand from the Noted Industry, Proportionately Absorbed from All Other Industries, Summary of Fuel Use Changes 97 7 Macro Model Proiects, Until Alternative Forecasts of U S Energy Utilization Overall Dynamic Model, Energy Systems Analysis Group, Brookhaven National Laboratory Optimal Solution for Base Case (T-1), 1015 BTU Conceptual Model of Energy Demand Demand Elasticity for Population, Income, and the Price of Electricity Residential Energy Use, Aggregate Elasticities University of London Model, Allocation of Crudes to Refineries and Refinery Products to Installation World Energy Model Resource Availability for Recoverable Energy Resources Alternative Processes Cost of Intermediate Energy Products Exclusive of Royalties, 1970 Prices Optimal Processes in Basic Problem Price Models. 113 IX

5 X CHAPTER 11 1 Per Capita GNP in Selected Arab Countries Investment in Agriculture in Selected Arab Countries Summary of Abu Dhabi Fund Commitments, 1973/