New consciousness: A societal and energetic vision for rebalancing humankind within the limits of planet earth

Transcription

1 New consciousness: A societal and energetic vision for rebalancing humankind within the limits of planet earth Prof Christian Breyer, Prof Sirkka Heinonen, and Project Researcher Juho Ruotsalainen Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC/UTU Futures Studies Tackling Wicked Problems Finland Futures Research Centre Turku Session 11. Toward a Futures Movement: Research collaboration on climate change as an opportunity to build a futures consciousness for global sustainability Structure of Our Presentation 1. Climate Change as a Wicked Problem for Futures Studies 2. Age of Crises energy, Limits to Growth, planetary boundaries and the idea of progress 3. Neo-Growth as a Solution 4. New Consciousness Transformative Scenario of a Neo-Growth World 5. Conclusions 1

2 Futures StudiesTackling Wicked Problems Global wicked problems such as the climate change require long time horizons & solutions built on strong visions in order to be tackled FS increasingly focuses on such issues, as exemplified in the 15 global challenges identified by the Millennium Project + Club of Rome + EU Grand Challenges Our work combines foresight of societal change and energy prospectives (qualitative&quantitative) Neo-Carbon Energy Project studies a) a 100 % renewable energy system of solar, wind and storage, and b) the social societal implication of the new energy system / A COMPLETELY NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEM WHERE ENERGY IS EMISSION-FREE, COST-EFFECTIVE AND INDEPENDENT. WHY? 2050: zero emission energy system has to be in place if global warming is limited to +2 C. 2030: only emission free technologies can be taken in use. 2015: solar and wind become the least cost options in large part of the World. NEO-CARBON ENERGY is one of the Tekes strategic research openings and the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC. 2

3 2. The Age of Crisis Built on the Myth of Progress The Myth of Progress The modern era (ca. 18 th century to late 20th century) was fundamentally based on the idea of progress: human reason would lead to a better world: -> more prosperous and with increasing liberty 3

4 Modern Progress in Four Theses 1) Societies progress when individuals are given the freedom to follow their inherent rationality. Authorities, such as religious, questioned. 2) Accumulation of knowledge through rational sciences 3) Democracy as a rational form of governance nation states and representative democracy 4) Material prosperity through natural sciences technology and industrial production Modern Progress - shortcomings has led to unprecedented prosperity and standards of living not evenly distributed, caused env. crisis Emphasis on individuality hinders cooperation between individuals Narrowed growth down to mere economic growth. Energy needed for progress but how to accommodate 10 billion within planetary boundaries? Emphasis on rationality and scientificity undermined other areas of cognition such as artistic creativity Emphasis on representative democracy dismissed other forms of democracy such as direct democracy 4

5 Crises in a Nutshell decarbonised power systems are desperately needed source: Wackernagel, 2010; WWF, 2014 Historic Collapse Pattern (Jared Diamond) Over Exploitation of Resources Climate Change Impact Non Adaptive Social Behaviour Military Conflicts Structural Change in Trade Routes our performance is excellent, unfortunately under the wrong sign 2. Neo-Growth as a Solution 5

6 Neo-Growth a concept developed by Prof Pentti Malaska (a word play on degrowth) unlike degrowth, neo-growth does not reject growth but emphasises its positive connotations 1) environmentally sustainable 2) merges economic growth with cultural, social and spiritual growth -> an attempt to re-establish a holistic vision of growth. Work and modes of production redefined to promote selfexpression and collaboration: prosumerism, pro-amateur, peerto-peer etc. -> Work would not be separate from other fields of life anymore ICTs used to enhance immaterial production and interaction, instead of industrial processes 6

7 Social relations combine individualism and collectivism ( indocollectivism Dator) Politics should be global Technology must be planetary (takes into account planetary boundaries, based on recycling, cradle-to-cradle, biomimicry) 4. New Consciousness Transformative Scenario of a Neo-Growth World 7

8 Discipline Jim Dator Neo-Carbon Energy Project Transformative Energy Futures 2050 (all transformative! all based on renewable energy!) Neo-Carbon Enabling Neo-Growth Society Neo-Growth -> What kind of growth we want? Neo-Carbon -> How carbon emissions can be reducesdand used as a resource? Third Industrial Revolution Sirkka Heinonen Prosumerism Peer-to-peer society 8

9 The main objective of the foresight part is to study possib socio-economic futures related to neo-carbon energy system. What kinds of societal economic, cultural, political and lifestyles-related changes does the neo-carbon energy system promote and enable? Emphasis on citizen-perspectives and preferred transformational futures To be linked with quantified energy data Neo-Carbon Scenarios 1) Radical Startups 2) Value-Driven Techemoths 3) Green DIY Engineers 4) New Consciousness 9

10 New Consciousness =the Most Radical of the Four Scenarios The ecological crisis: warming climate + species extinctions World War III : escalated numerous small conflicts of hybrid warfare Ubiquitous ICTs: people are connected to the internet practically all their waking hours. Virtual and physical have become inseparable. 10

11 New Consciousness It was understood that environmental and social problems were so huge that partial, practical and technological solutions were nowhere enough to solve them. Humans relationship to nature, to each other and to themselves had to be completely rethought (-> values of deep ecology as the norm) People do not conceive themselves as separate individuals, but deeply intertwined with other humans and as parts of nature. The change was facilitated by all-encompassing digital networks. Long-term energy demand? The results of some recent studies might help 11

12 Focus on 2050 and solar PV conservative in heat and mobility sector total primary energy demand (TPED) seems to be highly disputed all reports acknowledge significant relevance of PV ( 5 TW) BUT, the variation in results (input) is high, despite of progressive/ RE-based scenarios closer view to the key numbers might provide a valuable guideline Fundamental view on Energy 10 billion people (stabilized) requiring per capita energy on today s European level living standards converged energy mainly based on electricity due to efficiency and cost reasons local-global energy system globally interconnected but locally structured major sources of energy are wind and solar 12

13 Fundamental view on Energy Energy demand 2012: TWh th Electricity generation 2012: TWh e Focus on solar PV Abbreviations: TPED: Total Primary Energy Demand WEO: World Energy Outlook LCOE: levelized cost of energy Questions: Q1: Do we have enough resources? Q2: If solar PV is 25-40%, what s the rest? Q3: If long-term LCOE of PV are /MWhe, what are today s cost of PV, wind, coal and nuclear? Q4: What are the key resources and key technologies to run such an energy system? Q5: How radical is such an energy world? 13

14 Q1: Enough Resources? Q2: What s the rest? Q1: Yes. Q2: mainly wind energy (~40%), plus some geothermal, biomass, hydropower and ocean energy (~5%, each) Unit: terawatt years Source: Perez R. and Perez M., A fundamental look at energy reserves for the planet. The IEA SHC Solar Update, Volume 50 Q3: Today s cost? source: Agora Energiewende, Comparingthe Cost of Low- Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option; Grubler A., The costs of the Frenchnuclearscale-up: case of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, 5174 PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option nuclear and coal-ccs is very expensive nuclear and coal-ccs are risky technologies nuclear economics will become worse due to negative learning curve 14

15 Q3: Today s cost subsidies Societal extra costs of coal in China are about 150 $/MWhe (key reason for shift to wind and solar PV in China) Societal subsidies in Germany are about 100 $/MWhe (more than total costs of wind and plus costs for coal fuel and plant more than solar PV TODAY) LCOE of solar PV (today down to 50 /MWhe, long-term /MWhe) and wind (today, down to 40 /MWhe, long-term 30 /MWhe) are the least societal cost option Q4: Key Resources/ Technologies Key Resources Mental resource: Willingness-to-survive Energy resources: sun and wind Material resources: sand, bauxit, copper, iron, lithium, air (CO 2 ), water Key Technologies Generation: solar PV, wind turbines Storage: batteries based on Li, NaS, etc. Briding: power-to-c x H y, power-to-water, power-to-heat, electric vehicles 15

16 Q5: How radical is such a world? Technology: today available, no major breakthrough needed, evolutionary further development and cost reduction finally, rather simple Economics: least-cost solution, today and in future Politics: complete change of mind-set, dramatic change in policy execution (under constraints of fierce lobbyism and corruption) very difficult Individuals: distributed technologies allow individual front-running high level of responsibility needed and long-term optimization modern energy technologies allow sustainability AND high standards of living Conclusions 16

17 Is this a preferred future? Global world with no nation states Local - Global energy system, based on solar and wind Least societal cost requiring high management skills Access over ownership, transparency over privacy, and collaborative co-creation over competition Even distribution of wealth, everything is connected (e.g. through advanced virtual technologies) A WORLD ELECTRIFIED BY SOLAR AND WIND KIITOS! See a video on Neo-Carbon Energy Project 17

18 REFERENCES Agora Energiewende (2014). Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest Option?, study prepared by Prognos AG on behalf of Agora Energiewende, Berlin, April, Breyer, Christian, (2011). The Photovoltaic Reality Ahead: Terawatt Scale Market Potential Powered by Pico to Gigawatt PV Systems and Enabled by High Learning and Growth Rates, 26th EU PVSEC, Hamburg, September 5-9, DOI: /26thEUPVSEC2011-6EP.1.2, _Market_Potential_Powered_by_Pico_to_Gigawatt_PV_Systems_and_Enabled_by_High_Learni ng_and_growth_rates Dator, Jim (2012). Dream Society? Ubiquitous Society? No Society? Summer Seminar by the Finnish Society for Futures Studies. Otava. Diamond, Jared (2011). Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Penguin Books Grubler A. (2010). The cost of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, Heinonen, Sirkka (2014). What is Futures Reseach and Scenario Thinking? Lecture at University of Buenos Aires (UBA), Departamento de Computación 18th November During the Secondment at FLACSO and CIECTI, Buenos Aires (November 2014). 50 ppt slides. Heinonen, Sirkka, Ruotsalainen, Juho & Karjalainen, Joni (2015). Transformative Neo-Carbon Energy Scenarios. Finland Futures Research Centre/University of Turku (forthcoming). Heinonen, Sirkka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2014). Toward Ubiquitous Learning. [IMF] International Monetary Fund (2015). How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies?, Washington, Malaska, Pentti (2010). A More Innovative Direction Has Been Ignored. In: Understanding Neogrowth - An Invitation to Sustainable Productivity. TeliaSonera Finland Plc. Helsinki, p eogrowth.pdf [WWF] World Wild Fund for Nature International (2014). Living Planet Report 2014: Species and spaces, people and places. WWF, Zoological Society of London and Global Footprint Network, Gland, 18