Energy & Global Security
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1 Energy & Global Security Indian Perspective 11/9/2007 E.A.S.Sarma 1
2 Energy & Global Security Asymmetric Import Dependence Competition for Limited Fossil Fuel Resources Regional Political Tensions Threat Perceptions National Foreign Policy Global Security Nuclear Capabilities Nuclear Proliferation Conflict Situations Large Per Capita Energy Disparities Among Countries 11/9/2007 E.A.S.Sarma 2
3 Energy Supply Pattern Fuel Requirement Domestic Production Import Import Dependence Crude Oil % Natural Gas Coal % Hydro Nuclear Renewables Biomass (Traditional Use) Total % Source: Integrated Energy Policy (August 2006), Planning Commission (mtoe) 11/9/2007 E.A.S.Sarma 3 Middle East
4 Oil Imports ( ) in (% Shares) Middle East Middle East Nigeria Others Source: Integrated Energy Policy (August 2006), Planning Commission - Referred to as IEP in all these slides 11/9/2007 E.A.S.Sarma 4
5 Oil Imports from Middle East (% Shares) Others UAE 10 7 Iraq S.Arabia Iran Kuwait S.Arabia Kuwait Iran Iraq UAE Others Source: Integrated Energy Policy (August 2006), Planning Commission - Referred to as IEP in all these slides 11/9/2007 E.A.S.Sarma 5
6 IEP Approach Coal Substitution Gas/ Hydro/ Nuclear Coal efficiency Demand Management Energy Efficiency Higher Rail Share Transport Efficiency Energy Supply Energy System (Coal Dominant) Energy Demand Renewables IEP Energy Scenarios For /9/2007 E.A.S.Sarma 6
7 IEP Base Case (BC) for (8% GDP Growth) Fuel Requirement Domestic Production Import Crude Oil % Import Dependence (mtoe) Middle East Natural Gas % Coal % Hydro Diverse Sources Nuclear Renewables Biomass (Traditional Use) Total % 11/9/2007 E.A.S.Sarma 7
8 Scenario IEP: Coal Substitution Scenario (CSS) (8% Growth) BC Coal Substitution by Hydro Nuclear Gas Crude Oil 486 Iran Gas 486 Pipeline? Natural Gas (Mtoe) After Coal Substitution Middle East Coal Hydro Nuclear Renewables 2 Steep Step 2 Up in Nuclear Biomass (Traditional Use) Total /9/2007 E.A.S.Sarma 8
9 IEP: Efficiency Scenario (ES) (8% Growth) Scenario CSS Coal Efficiency, DSM, Increased Rail Share, Transport Efficiency Post Efficiency Crude Oil Forced Renewables Middle East Natural Gas Iran Gas? Coal Hydro Nuclear Renewables Biomass (Traditional Use) Total /9/2007 E.A.S.Sarma 9
10 IEP Efficiency Scenario: Electricity Generation Capacities Source MW (Load Factor) Coal 269,997 (67%) Gas 119,815 (27-36%) Nuclear 63,060 (68%) Hydro 150,153 (30%) IGCC 3,137 (68%) Wind 33,341 (20-25%) Biomass 51,200 (70-75%) Solar 10,000 (17.5%) Total 700,703 (50%) 11/9/2007 E.A.S.Sarma 10
11 Strategic Implications of Different Scenarios Total Energy Requirement (mtoe) Overall Import Dependence Oil Import Dependence Gas Import Dependence Oil + Gas Import Dependence Nuclear Share Non-Fossil Fuel Share BC % 93% 5% 77% 4.0% 15% CSS % 93% 49% 80% 5.3% 17% ES % 90% 33% 73% 6.4% 26% 11/9/2007 E.A.S.Sarma 11
12 Share in World Fossil Fuel Resources ( ) BC CSS ES Oil 9.7% 9.7% 7.0% Gas 2.8% 5.3% 4.0% Coal 37.2% 30.4% 23.0% Sources: IEP & Trade Estimates from world Energy Outlook 2004 of International Energy Agency 11/9/2007 E.A.S.Sarma 12
13 India s Share in Primary Energy vis-à-vis CO 2 Emissions Primary Energy (Mtoe) World India India s share 5.3% 5.7% 6.2% CO 2 Emissions (Mt) World India India s share 4.4% 5.1% 5.7% India s share in World Population 16.8% 17.6% 18.7% Source: IEA s World Energy Outlook /9/2007 E.A.S.Sarma 13
14 Strategic Interventions 1. Political Tensions + Nuclear Capabilities Nuclear Proliferation International Effort to Diffuse Tension 2. India s Per Capita CO 2 Emissions Low- Undue curtailment of Coal Use will force the Country s Dependence on Imported Gas (Middle East) & Nuclear Technical & Economic Cooperation to transfer Clean Coal Technologies 3. Technical & Economic Cooperation to transfer Efficient Technologies for Energy Demand Management, Renewables & Biomass Conversion into Useful Energy 4. India s Oil Import Dependence on Middle East sources will increase; Oil substitution & demand management alone can help 4. Regional Gas Grids from Middle East/ Central Asian Countries, Mynmar 5. Regional Electricity Grids among Asian Countries 6. Global Strategy & Cooperation to move towards Renewables 11/9/2007 E.A.S.Sarma 14
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