Low Carbon Society in Asia: Activities in India in

Transcription

1 Low Carbon Society in Asia: Activities in India in P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Presented in The 18 th AIM International Workshop National Institute for Environment Studies, Tsukuba, Japan December 14-16, 212

2 Overview of Activities (212-13) 1. Low Carbon Society Framing & Modeling for India 2. Publications 3. Capacity Building and Dissemination 4. Year : Way Forward

3 LCS Framing: Rio+2 Green Growth: Low Carbon and Inclusive Society Mapping Transitions Demographic; Urban/Rural; Income; Behavior (e.g. consumption); Institution Economics: Paradigm Shift Cooperation & Co-benefits (e.g. energy security, AQ) Finance (discount rates) Policies Technology: Infrastructures; Targeted R&D + industry Coordinate policies to gain co-benefits Global carbon price Green Growth and Low Carbon Modeling Applications LC Transport Modeling for India National Level Modeling LC Modeling in three cities Modeling Low Carbon City Three small and mid-size cities Guidebook for Preparing LC Roadmap for a City

4 Sustainable Low Carbon Mobility Framework Objective Options Decisions/Indicators Targets Modes (avoid lock-ins) Low Carbon Transport Infrastructures Space Design Technologies Supply-push (public finance) Market Integration (PPP) Land-use (Zoning, V/H City) Inclusion (Access) Institutions (Decentralized) Efficiency (Standards) Taxes/Subsidies (Targeted) National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Behavior R&D (Finance, IPR) Awareness/Education () Governance (Policies, Rule) Global Climate Change Targets Incentives (Tariff, Taxes) Back-casting

5 Soft-Linked Integrated Model System Soft-Linked Integrated Model System (SLIM) DATABASES Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment DATABASES Socio -Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constrai nts End-Use Demand End Use Demand Model AIM CGE/GCAM-IIM AIM CGE Model ANSWER-MARKAL Model ANSWER -MARKAL Model AIM ExSS AIM SNAPSHOT Model (SDB) AIM Strategic Database Scenario Database Sustainable Transport Indicators Database Transport Model Transport Demand Model Transport Database

6 Transport CO2 Reductions (Million Ton) 12 Emissions Emissions BAU vs. Sustainable Low Low Carbon Carbon Scenario Scenario Sustainable mobility Sustainable logistics Fuel Economy Electric Vehicles Bio fuels Emissions

7 Low Carbon Mobility Plans for Cities Population Population >1 Million 5-1 Million 2-5 Million 1-2 Million No of cities Udaipur Rajkot City- Population 1,39,933 Visakhapatnam City- Population 17332

8 Publications

9 Publications UNEP Gap Report (212) LCS Overview Paper for AME (Published) Paper on two low carbon pathways for India Technology Targets paper (Published) Building Sector Energy (Submitted in EP)

10 Two low carbon development pathways in India M. Namazu, S. Fujimori, P. R. Shukla, Y. Matsuoka Accepted for publication in Journal of Envormental Perspectives

11 Two low carbon development pathways in India M. Namazu, S. Fujimori, P. R. Shukla, Y. Matsuoka Population (bil. people) Figure 1 population prospects in India 2.5 SC_UN21_Medium GDP (tril. 25US$/year) Figure 2 GDP prospects in India ADV CNV Figure 3a: GHG emissions Figure 3b: GHG emissions price GHG emissions (GtCO 2 eq/ year) ADV_REF CNV_REF ADV_MIT CNV_MIT Emission price (25US$/t CO 2 eq.) ADV_MIT CNV_MIT

12 GDP and Energy Projection Figure 4a: GDP Figure 4b: GDP loss GDP(tril. 25US$/year) ADV_REF CNV_REF ADV_MIT CNV_MIT GDP loss (%) CNV_MIT ADV_MIT Figure 5: Total primary energy supply Figure 6: total final energy consumption 3, 3 TPES (Mtoe/year) 2,5 2, 1,5 1, CNV_ ADV_ CNV_ ADV_ CNV_ ADV_ CNV_ ADV_ MIT MIT MIT MIT MIT MIT REF REF Geo Bio Sol Win Nuc Hyd Gas Oil Coal Household Energy Consumption (Mtoe/year) CNV ADV CNV ADV CNV ADV Ely Oil Bio Gas Coal

13 Energy Consumption and Electricity Generation Figure7: Household energy consumption Industry Energy Consumption (Mtoe/year) 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, CNV ADV CNV ADV CNV ADV Ely Oil Bio Gas Coal Figure 8a: Power generation - ADV Figure 8b: Power generation - CNV Power (Mtoe/year) ADV_MIT 25 ADV_ REF Power (Mtoe/year) CNV_MIT 25 CNV_ REF a Bio w/ccs Gas w/ccs Oil w/ccs Coal w/ccs Geo Bio Sol Win Nuc Hyd Gas Oil Coal

14 Mitigation Measures Figure 9a: Mitigation measures - ADV Figure 9b: Mitigation measures - CNV Gt CO2-eq/year Gt CO2-eq/year Gt CO2-eq/year Other Non-energy GHG Enduse_efficiency Enduse_fuel_switch Electricity_demand Power_efficiency Renewable Nuclear CCS Emission

15 Publications

16 The Emissions Gap reports 21 Cancun Climate Summit UNEP Emissions Gap report United Nations Environment Programme with the European Climate Foundation & National Institute of Ecology, Mexico 211 Durban Climate Summit UNEP Bridging the Emissions Gap report United Nations Environment Programme with the European Climate Foundation & Ministry of Environment, South Africa 212 Doha Climate Summit UNEP Emissions Gap 212 report United Nations Environment Programme with the European Climate Foundation 55 scientists, 43 institutions, 22 countries 16

17 What are we aiming for? Post-22 goals for staying within 2 o C target Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Gt/year CO 2 -equiv. Peak before 22 In Gt CO 2 e/yr (33-44) - 23% rel. to 21 emissions 199 emissions In Gt CO 2 e/yr (18-25) - 56% rel. to 21 emissions - 42% rel to 199 emissions Now (21) 49 GtCO 2 e/yr 39 emissions pathways Likely chance of complying with 2 o C target: Pathways Medium chance of complying with 1.5 C target: Year 17

18 How can the 22 gap be bridged? Bottom-up sectoral studies Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions Emission reduction potential in 22 (Gt/year equivalent CO 2 ) Power Industry Transport Buildings Waste Forestry Agriculture Total Emission = 17 ± 3 Reduction Potential Gt/year CO 2 e The Gap in 22 = 14 (relative to business-as-usual) Gt/year CO 2 e 21 Year 22 Potential in sectors big enough to bridge the gap. 18

19 Capacity Building and Dissemination

20 Capacity Building/ Dissemination UNEP Workshop: Low Carbon Transport in India April 212 IPCC Scenario Workshop May 212 ISAP212 July 212 AIM Training Workshop July day visit of AIM team to Tsukuba University July 212 LOCARNet 1 ST Annual Meeting, Bangkok Oct 212 IPCC LA meetings at Vigo Nov 212 COP 18: Nov-Dec 212

21 Global Modeling Exercises & India 1.Asia Low Carbon Society Project 2.AMPERE 3.LIMITS 4.CPO 5.IAMC

22 Way forward

23 Post-Doha Challenges Global Target: 2 deg. C Stabilization Global Carbon Price Peaking National LC Plan consistent with the Global Target Climate Change National Action Plan Clean Strategy to implement the plan (e.g.) Market Instruments (RE Certificates/ Clean Energy Certificates) Finance Other issues (e.g.) MRV/ICA (International Consultation & Analysis) of Domestic Actions (Cancun)

24 Post-Doha Challenges: India Domestic Actions (Guided by National Climate Change Action Plan) Enhanced Energy Efficiency measures (e.g. EE Certificates, CAFE) Renewable Energy Push (e.g. 2 GW Solar PV Target by 222, RE Certificates) Mission on Sustainable Habitat (e.g. Building Codes, Low Carbon Cities Planning) Coal tax ($1 per ton) and recycling of tax funds for clean energy International Instruments (e.g. Cap & Trade Pilot) UNFCCC Instruments CDM and NAMAs UNFCCC Funds (e.g. Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund) Bilateral Actions Tech Transfer (e.g. CCS) JVs (e.g. Transport: High Speed Rail, Freight Corridors)

25 Renewable Energy Certificate Mechanism: Institutional Framework at National Level

26 Perform, Achieve & Trade (PAT) Mechanism (The market based mechanism through cost effectiveness approach for improving energy efficiency in energy intensive sectors) Methodology: Specific Energy Consumption (SEC) reduction targets for the 685 energy-intensive units which are designated consumers under the Energy Conservation Act Targets would be % reduction of current SEC Percentage reduction requirement based on: - Sectoral targets to achieve the national goal - Current SEC as a ratio of the best in the sector/ groups within a sector - Unit specific diversities (Next Slide) Target setting for the power generation and fertilizer sectors through the existing tariff-setting processes SEC measurement and verification by BEE through designated verifiers Sector No. of Identified DCs* Aluminum 11 Cement 92 Chlor-Alkali 21 Fertilizer 22 Pulp & Paper 7 Power 154 Iron & Steel 11 Textiles 197 Railways 8 *DCs: Designated Consumers

27 Conclusion Overview of Activities (213-14??) 1. Purposive LCS Research (for India & Global) 2. Integrated Model Development for India 3. Models, Tools, Guidebooks and Application for Cities 4. Publications consistent with AIM Research Activities 5. Capacity Building and Dissemination