Energiewende in Germany. Thomas Grigoleit Director Energy, Environment and Resources. Los Angeles, July

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1 Chris Schmidt - istockphoto Energiewende in Germany Thomas Grigoleit Director Energy, Environment and Resources Los Angeles, July 2015 Photo: green energy stockphoto-graf

2 Renewables Energy Revolution Total capacity of renewables (End 2005) 2010) 2000) 2012) ~ ~ , ,000 30,000 installations Wind energy PV Biomass The circle diameter is proportional to the electrical capacity Sources: 50HertzT, TenneT, Amprion, TransnetBW, internal data

3 Energy Transition Goals 2050 GHG Emissions - 80% Share of Renewables 60% Share of RE-Electricity 80% Energy Consumption -50% + Nuclear Phase-out by 2022 Copyright: GTAI

4 Germany s nuclear power phase-out Development of installed nuclear power plants capacity in MW Hamburg Berlin Cologne Frankfurt % of electricity generation (2010) Stuttgart Munich 1) Quelle: BMWi Die Energiewende in Deutschland, Februar ) Quelle: DAtF, Active nuclear reactor with date of scheduled closure Nuclear reactor already closed

5 Energiewende in Germany Future electricity mix in Germany will be based on Wind and PV

6 EUR/kWh Price development of Solar Energy in Germany Significant price decreases of solar energy: own consumption and energy storage are more and more attractive Prognosis Electricity price for households [2.5-5 MWh/a] Electricity costs for PV* Electricity costs for PV + Battery** * Model calculation for rooftop systems, based on 802 kwh/kwp (Frankfurt/Main), 100% financing, 6% interest rate, 20 year term, 2% p.a. O&M costs ** based on 5,000 cycles, 87% efficiency Sources: System Prices: BSW 2015; Model Calculation: Deutsche Bank 2010; Electricity Prices : Eurostat 2013.

7 PV-batteries in Germany: >15,000 systems installed German PV-battery installations increased >50% from 2013 to Approximately half of the customers use the KfW incentive program. Average number of KfW-supported PV-Batteries per quarter (left ordinate) Cumulative number of KfW-supported PV-Batteries Cumulative number of KfW-supported PV-Batteries Total installations at KfW market-share of 50% (estimated) ,700 by Dec systems by Dec Total number of installations : ~16,000 systems KfW marketshare: ~50%* Q Q Q Q Q Q Q * Estimation (based on surveys among installers performed by EuPD and BSW). Source: KfW 2015

Energy 1h 3h 5h 7h 9h 11h 13h 15h 17h 19h 21h 23h 1h 3h 5h 7h 9h 11h 13h 15h 17h 19h 21h 23h kwh kwh Example: Household with 3,500 kwh consumption An average private user runs around 200 battery

8 Energy 1h 3h 5h 7h 9h 11h 13h 15h 17h 19h 21h 23h 1h 3h 5h 7h 9h 11h 13h 15h 17h 19h 21h 23h kwh kwh Example: Household with 3,500 kwh consumption An average private user runs around 200 battery cycles per year. Highquality Li-cells may run 400 Batteries can provide additional services 5 Typical daily energy profile in summer 5 Typical daily energy profile in winter 0 0 Typical annual energy profile Consumption P PV-Production Battery Output From Grid From Battery From PV Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Based on kwh annual consumption (Standard load profile), 5 kwp 1000kWh/kWp (Standard profile), Battery with 6 kwh usable capacity

9 MW Large-scale batteries balancing the grid The installed battery capacity for primary control provision in Germany increased strongly in the last three years and will keep on rising Installed battery capacity in Germany for primary control provision Aachen, Eon Energy Research Centre at RWTH Aachen University (Li-ion, high-temperature, lead-acid) Pellworm, EON & Schleswig-Holstein Netz AG, Hybrid (Li-ion, Redox-flow) Braderup, Bosch, Hybrid (Li-ion, Redox-flow) Feldheim, Energiequelle GmbH, Li-Ion Schwerin, Younicos & Wemag, Li-Ion Berlin, Younicos & Vattenfall, LiFePo Berlin, Younicos & Vattenfall, Hybrid (Li-Ion, NAS) Völklingen-Fenne, Evonik, Li-Ion Source: IEK-STE Database, Note: Further projects to be realised in 2015 are currently under development

10 GW GW GW GW Challenges for the future Simulation of German grid in 2022: Daily & seasonal fluctuations increase February (week 6 th ) April (week 14 th ) August (week 33 th ) November (week 47 th ) PV Wind Biomass Fossiles *Source: Agora Energiewende 2015 Electriciy demand

11 GW Challenges for the future Simulation of German grid in 2022 February (week 6 th ) PV Wind Biomass Fossiles *Source: Agora Energiewende 2015 Electriciy demand

12 GW Challenges for the future Simulation of German grid in 2022 April (week 14 th ) PV Wind Biomass Fossiles *Source: Agora Energiewende 2015 Electriciy demand

13 GW GW Challenges for the future Simulation of German grid in 2022 August (week 33 th ) PV Wind Biomass Fossiles *Source: Agora Energiewende 2015 Electriciy demand

14 GW GW Challenges for the future Simulation of German grid in 2022 November (week 47 th ) PV Wind Biomass Fossiles *Source: Agora Energiewende 2015 Electriciy demand

15 GW GW GW GW Challenges for the future Simulation of German grid in 2022: Daily & seasonal fluctuations increase February (week 6 th ) April (week 14 th ) No Base Load (24/7) power plants August (week 33 th ) November (week 47 th ) PV Wind Biomass Fossiles *Source: Agora Energiewende 2015 Electriciy demand

16 GW GW GW GW Challenges for the future Simulation of German grid in 2022: Daily & seasonal fluctuations increase February (week 6 th ) April (week 14 th ) No Base Load (24/7) power plants Smart Grid August (week 33 th ) November (week 47 th ) PV Wind Biomass Fossiles *Source: Agora Energiewende 2015 Electriciy demand

17 GW GW GW GW Challenges for the future Simulation of German grid in 2022: Daily & seasonal fluctuations increase February (week 6 th ) April (week 14 th ) No Base Load (24/7) power plants Smart Grid Energy Storage August (week 33 th ) November (week 47 th ) PV Wind Biomass Fossiles *Source: Agora Energiewende 2015 Electriciy demand

18 GW GW GW GW Challenges for the future Simulation of German grid in 2022: Daily & seasonal fluctuations increase February (week 6 th ) April (week 14 th ) No Base Load (24/7) power plants Smart Grid Energy Storage August (week 33 th ) November (week 47 th ) Electricity Heat Transportation PV Wind Biomass Fossiles *Source: Agora Energiewende 2015 Electriciy demand

19 GW GW GW GW Challenges for the future Simulation of German grid in 2022: Daily & seasonal fluctuations increase February (week 6 th ) April (week 14 th ) No Base Load (24/7) power plants Smart Grid Energy Storage August (week 33 th ) November (week 47 th ) Electricity Heat Transportation Energy Efficiency PV Wind Biomass Fossiles *Source: Agora Energiewende 2015 Electriciy demand

20 Urban Challenges Are Opportunities! Energy Liveability Buildings ICT Mobility Source: Wikimedia Commons

21 Germany Trade & Invest Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) is the official foreign trade and inward investment promotion agency of the Federal Republic of Germany. We help you establish your presence in Europe s leading economy.

22 Don t hesitate to contact us! Energy, Environment and Resources Division: Europe Berlin - Headquarters Mr. Thomas Grigoleit Director Energy, Environment and Resources T thomas.grigoleit@gtai.com Mr. Heiko Staubitz Senior Manager Energy Storage and Smart Grid T heiko.staubitz@gtai.com Mr. Tobias Rothacher Senior Manager Photovoltaics and Storage T tobias.rothacher@gtai.com Mr. Henning Ellermann Manager Energy Efficiency T henning.ellermann@gtai.com Ms. Esther Frey Manager Wind T esther.frey@gtai.com Mr. Max Hildebrandt Manager Photovoltaics and Storage T max.hildebrandt@gtai.com Mrs. Flérida Regueira Cortizo Senior Manager Environmental Technologies T flerida.regueira@gtai.com Mr. David J.Warne Senior Manager Geo Energy & Resources T david.warne@gtai.com North America New York Office San Francisco Office Mr. Claus Habermeier Director New York, USA T: F: claus.habermeier@gtai.com Ms. Angelika Geiger Director San Francisco, USA T: F: angelika.geiger@gtai.com Asia-Pacific Beijing Office Tokyo Office Mumbai Office Mr. Markus Hempel China Representative Beijing, China T F markus.hempel@gtai.com Mr. Iwami Asakawa Japan Representative Tokyo, Japan T F iwami.asakawa@gtai.com Ms. Asha-Maria Sharma India Representative Mumbai, India T asha-maria.sharma@gtai.com 2014 Germany Trade & Invest All information provided by Germany Trade & Invest has been put together with the utmost care. However, we assume no liability for the accuracy of the information provided.

Buildings: 40% of national energy consumption Goal: Almost climate-neutral building stock by 2050 (Semi-) detached Multi-family Commercial 15.4 mln bldgs. 3.2 mln bldgs. ~ 2 mln bldgs.

23 Buildings: 40% of national energy consumption Goal: Almost climate-neutral building stock by 2050 (Semi-) detached Multi-family Commercial 15.4 mln bldgs. 3.2 mln bldgs. ~ 2 mln bldgs. 40 mln residential units the largest housing stock in Europe Sources: Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development, BBSR dena, Foundation New Responsibility

24 EUR/kWh From Grid-Parity to Battery-Parity With fruther increasing electricity prices and decreasing PV system costs, the business case for storage is becoming better and better Prognosis Electricity price for households [2.5-5 MWh/a] Electricity costs for PV* Electricity costs for PV + Battery** * Model calculation for rooftop systems, based on 802 kwh/kwp (Frankfurt/Main), 100% financing, 6% interest rate, 20 year term, 2% p.a. O&M costs ** based on 5,000 cycles, 87% efficiency Sources: System Prices: BSW 2015; Model Calculation: Deutsche Bank 2010; Electricity Prices : Eurostat 2013.

25 1. NASA BILD!! Externe 25 Sources and copyright: NASA

26 Integrating Urban Energy Systems 1. Supply RE Electricity CHP Power2Heat Renewable Heat Good data as a basis for analysis & planning 3. Buffering Thermal storage Electrical storage (de-) centralized Power2Gas 2. Distribution Smart Grids Waste Heat Use Low-Ex Grids VHPs Interdependence & complexity increase 4. Consumption Low-energy districts DR Smart mobility Source: Fraunhofer ISE

27 Urban Challenges Are Opportunities! Energy Liveability Buildings ICT Mobility Source: Wikimedia Commons 27

70% built before 1979 75% not or only partially refurbished 55% of households rent!

28 70% built before % not or only partially refurbished 55% of households rent! 50% of housing stock up for refurb in next 20 years! Doubling of 1% deep refurbishment rate needed Copyright: Stadt Essen

29 Why Look at Cities? 75% of Germans live in urbanized areas and are responsible for 75% of GHG emissions. but only 16% (13 million) live in cities >500,000 inhabitants. and urbanization trend will continue, with regional variation. Urbanized region Densified region Rural region Sources: Destatis, BBSR

30 Business Opportunities for residential batteries New trends in residential storage: Utilites are entering, storage devices get interconnected and sold via rental & leasing models Utilities Interconnection Rental & Leasing P P P

GW Example for critical grid situations: Eclipse 2015 Eclipse on March 20th had no effect on German s grid stability due to excellent forecasting & compensation Electricity

31 GW Example for critical grid situations: Eclipse 2015 Eclipse on March 20th had no effect on German s grid stability due to excellent forecasting & compensation Electricity production in Germany, week 12th 2015:* Eclipse on March 20 th 2015 PV Wind Non-fluctuating Net imports *Source: ISE 2015 (

32 Opportunities for Solution Providers More activity & innovation Platforms for pilot projects Municipal managers for energy or Smart City projects Greater cooperation among stakeholders Copyright: FrancescoRizzato istockphoto

33 Grid Parity = Competitiveness Competitiveness of solar = new business opportunities! Wattage PV Energy Own-Consumption of PV Energy Energy from grid Energy Demand Time of day 0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h 24h Notes: 1) Depending on size /type of system; Min. to max. tariff in 2013 of new EEG ) Depending on electricity retail price of respective utility company. 7 october, 2014

34 Business Opportunities for large-scale batteries New trends: Large-scale batteries for primary reserve control, district storage and as a buffer for PV & wind generators Reserve control District storage PV & Wind P P P

35 Energiewende Longterm scenario The E-Energy Vision for a Smart Grid Source: E-Energy Source: E-Energy

36 Driver 1: Energy Prices High and rising energy prices mean investment in energy efficiency yield attractive returns Energy Prices for with Compound Annual Growth Rates ( ct/kwh) CAGR 30 +5,56 % ,75 % ,86 % +4,21 % +5,18 % Residental Electricity Industrial Electricity Residental Gas Industrial Gas Residental Heating Oil Source: Destatis

37 Driver 2: Policy Energiewende Energiewende = Transition towards a more sustainable energy system Three key pillars of success: 1. Integration of a growing share of renewable energy sources 2. Nuclear power phase-out by Ambitious energy efficiency targets to decouple economic growth and energy consumption Doubling of deep refurbishment rate to 2% of housing stock Almost climate-neutral building stock by 2050 Primary energy consumption cut in half by Implementation of new EU rules (EED&EPBD)

Energy efficiency 34% Garden, terrace, balcony 28% Barrier-free living 12% Robust and durable appliances

38 Energy-Efficient Building in Germany Energy efficiency trumps all other home features for Germans What is important to Germans when building a house? Energy efficiency 34% Garden, terrace, balcony 28% Barrier-free living 12% Robust and durable appliances Latest technology 8% 7% Roomy, with lots of space 6% Tasteful interior furnishing 4% Do not know, no data 2% Image: Nerthuz Source: E.ON

39 Driver 3: Europe s Leading Construction Market The refurbishment segment is growing and will continue to dominate construction investments smart retrofit solutions are needed! Volume of residential construction in Germany, in EUR billions 140 Volume of non-residential construction in Germany, in EUR billions Residential new Residential refurbishment Non-residential new Non-residential refurbishment Source: DIW 2013, Heinze Marktforschung, BBSR *Prognosis GTAI Germany Trade & Invest

40 The Energy Concept (2010) Main Objectives Climate protection measures GHG cuts vs % -80% Renewable share of 2020 (2025) 2050 Total energy consumption 18% 60% Electricity consumption 35% (40-45%) 80% Heat generation 14% 60% Energy efficiency measures Increase in energy productiveness 2.1% p.a. Reduction of energy consumption -50% (2050 vs. 2008) Reduction of electricity consumption -25% (2050 vs. 2008) Renovation rate Reduction of energy consumption for transportation 2% p.a. -10% (2020 vs. 2005) -40% (2050 vs. 2005)

Energiewendein Germanyand Other Opportunities for Texas Companies

Chris Schmidt - istockphoto Energiewendein Germanyand Other Opportunities for Texas Companies Angelika Geiger December 2014 17.12.2014 www.gtai.com 1 The Energy Concept(2010) Main Objectives Climate protection