Water security in California in the age of drought

Transcription

1 Water security in California in the age of drought Roger Bales, UC Merced Mar 27, 2010 Mar 29, 2015 Jan 26,

2 Sierra Nevada Research Institute Foster interdisciplinary research in the Sierra Nevada & Central Valley eco-region Through this research, address knowledge gaps in the region.

3 Sustainability as a research umbrella for SNRI & UC Merced Regional issue subject to global influences Core questions intersect with climate change, energy, resource management, infrastructure, environmental pollution & public health issues

4 Calif. water sources Sierra Nevada N More precipitation & runoff north of Delta More water use south of Delta CA Water Plan, 2013

5 Applied water use Precip: 200 MAF Applied: 80 MAF Ag: 33 MAF Urban: 8 MAF Data from DWR, adapted from Nor. Cal. Water Assn. Water supplies: Agriculture: 80% Urban 20%

6 Development of the drought Nov 2011 Nov 2012 Nov 2013 Nov 2014 Nov

7 1100 yr drought record Reconstructed flows of Sacramento R. Color shading marks below-median periods >4 yr 1-5 per century Horizontal line at median Meko et al report

8 California temperature ( F) and precipitation (inches) anomalies from January 1895 to November 2014, plotted as 3-y anomalies relative to mean. Mann & Gleick, 2015

9 California PDSI

10 Historical and projected PDSI Current drought may be the new norm, if we re lucky

11 Key Judgments water security A. during the next 10 years, water problems will contribute to instability in states important to US national security interests. Water shortages, poor water quality, and floods by themselves are unlikely to result in state failure. However, water problems when combined with poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions contribute to social disruptions that can result in state failure. Global Water Security a Defense Intelligence Agency assessment, 2012

12 Key Judgments water security C. We judge that during the next 10 years the depletion of groundwater supplies in some agricultural areas owing to poor management will pose a risk to both national and global food markets. Food-water-energy nexus Global Water Security a Defense Intelligence Agency assessment, 2012 Figure from UN-Water Analytical Brief, 2013

13 Making a water-secure California the three I s INFRASTRUCTURE to store, transport & treat water Stronger & moreadaptable INSTITUTIONS Water security lies at the heart of adaptation to climate change Better & moreaccessible INFORMATION Water security: the reliable availability of an acceptable quantity & quality of water for health, livelihoods & production, coupled w/ an acceptable level of water-related risks

14 How earlier runoff affects water availability Need for storage increases in a warmer climate, as does shortage CA Water Plan, 2013

15 From presentation JE Reager, San Gabriel Valley Water Forum held October 2, 2014, Pomona, CA. JT Reager, CA's drought

16 7 ac pond, Harkins Slough managed aquifer recharge system

17 Walnut orchard being flooded Photo: J. Viers

18 Moving toward sustainability A good deal about California does not, on its own preferred terms, add up (J. Didion, Where I Was From)

19 Limited accurate data on water fluxes and stores Example seasonal forecasts uncertainty can be high Mainly monthly, manual measurements Few automated, but non-representative measurements Statistical forecasts, vs. hydrologic models New, mature technology available: blending data from satellites, aircraft, wireless sensor networks, advanced modeling tools

20 Bales et al., 2006 Sierra Nevada precipitation & snow water equivalent (SWE) climatological estimate

21 American River hydrologic observatory Lake Tahoe Operational: 11 snow pillows on flat ground, in clearings, at mid elevations Index sites Research: 140+ sensor nodes spatially representative Snow-covered portion, ~2000 km 2 Prototype, core element of new information system

22 Node construction at Alpha site

23 A modern water information system is a key investment for drought management

24 Sustainability is the major challenge facing society As a state university, UC Merced has a responsibility to help meet this challenge Regionally, our need to achieve sustainability is paramount Globally, our state must provide the templates for a sustainable future UC Merced s Sierra Nevada Research Institute is building partnerships & carrying out research to meet those challenges