Overview of the NC Drought Management Advisory Council

Transcription

1 Overview of the NC Drought Management Advisory Council RYAN BOYLES (NCSU), CURTIS WEAVER ( USGS), REBECCA CUMBIE (NCSU) BOB STEA (NC DENR), MIKE MONEYPENNY ( NWS-RAH) Drought Complex, insidious climate disaster Most expensive disaster At least $6-8 Billion annually in US No clear beginning and end Impacts to wide range of communities Large geographic extent: county to multi-state Large time extent: weeks to years 1

2 Drought Normal part of climate variability Affects different communities in different ways Difficult to define: Occurs almost everywhere Definitions often linked to impacts Drought: persistent lack of adequate precipitation over some time sufficient to cause impacts to a group, activity, or sector Without impacts, is just dry weather Shorter-term: Vegetation impacts Longer-term: Hydrological impacts Recent Droughts in NC

3 History of the DMAC Originated in 1992 Interagency coordination and information exchange body Responsible for issuing drought advisories (starting in 2003) Based on technical data to address varying conditions throughout the state Tailors advisories to local conditions Consistent, coordinated drought monitoring and guidance for NC Makes recommendations to US Drought Monitor Weekly during times of dryness DMAC Membership Council chair is employee of NC DENR designated by the Department Organizations invited to serve on the Council: 3

4 Measuring Drought No single measure of drought, no single index we use Various measures developed to handle duration, extent, impacts Precipitation, evaporation Soil moisture Hydrology: streamflow, groundwater Impact data is critical Without impacts, just dry weather Weekly process U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is released weekly on Thursday morning, based on conditions as of Tuesday morning 7 AM EST cutoff time Rotation of ~ 12 USDM authors from NOAA and USDA prepare the weekly release based on multiple objective indicators and local input NC DMAC holds weekly conference call to update and compare information on the latest conditions and reach a consensus recommendation for the author Weekly participants typically consist of NCDWR (chair), State Climate Office, NWS, USGS, USCOE, Duke Energy, NC Forest Service, agricultural and water quality interests, and sometimes the weekly USDM author Weekly process begins with hydrologic conditions summary from USGS 4

5 Streamflow indicators USGS WaterWatch pages provide real-time 7- and 28-day average streamflows Need a time scale that is not too flashy nor too slow to respond The 7- and 28-day periods provide reasonable time scales for evaluating streamflow responses to varying precipitation events 28-day average streamflow From USGS WaterWatch page 5

6 7-day average streamflow From USGS WaterWatch page Tracking 7-day streamflows 6

7 Groundwater conditions From USGS NC Climate Response Network page Keetch-Byram Drought Index 7

8 Soil Moisture 0-200m Relative Soil Moisture One Week Change in 0-200m Relative Soil Moisture Gridded soil moisture from NASA LIS Precipitation 7-day Precipitation water.weather.gov/precip 7-day Percent of Normal water.weather.gov/precip 8

9 Precipitation Standardized Precipitation Index Percent of Normal Station Percentiles Multiple Timescales Temperature Station Observations and Percentiles (Multiple Timescales) 9

10 Crop and CoCoRaHS Reports Drought Impact Reporter: droughtreporter.unl.edu CoCoRaHS Condition Monitoring Page: aspx USDM Recommendations Make recommendations based on convergence of evidence 10

11 7-Day Forecast Provided by NWS What to expect over the next ~7 days General patterns Precipitation Temperatures Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks 8-14 Day 1 Month Precipitation Temperature 11

12 Global Patterns ENSO 12