TABLE OF CONTENTS OECD/IEA, 2018 OIL MARKET REPORT

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Jemima Fowler
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1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary Demand Highlights Global Overview Macroeconomic environment and prices Coming changes in bunker fuel specifications Booming demand for petrochemicals OECD demand OECD Americas OECD Europe OECD Asia Oceania Non-OECD demand Africa China Other Asia Non-OECD Europe Former Soviet Union (FSU) Latin America Middle East Supply Highlights Global Overview Decline rates slow at mature fields Non-OPEC oil supplies Strong growth lifts US to record highs Majors bet big on Brazil Canada poised for strong growth, but export constraints crimp future gains Mexican growth delayed by reluctant farm-out partners Mixed bag in Latin America North Sea boost Russian plateau Modest growth in the Caspian Asian region sees biggest decline Africa falls Conflict prevents Middle East rebound OPEC Iraq dominates expansion Downward spiral in Venezuela Angola drags on Africa Iran drives OPEC gas liquids supply OIL MARKET REPORT

2 Global biofuel supply Key ethanol market developments Key biodiesel and HVO market developments Refining and trade Highlights Setting the stage Refining Outlook Atlantic Basin East of Suez The year 2020 problem: implications of bunker fuel specification change Quantity vs quality Crude Trade Product Trade Ethane/LPG Gasoline/naphtha Diesel/kerosene Fuel oil SPECIAL FEATURE North american oil looking for a way out Highlights Overview Canada: Oil pipelines stretched to the limit Planned investments Takeaway capacity to rise, but not until West Texas: Strong investments amid production growth Planned investments Some capacity constrains in US Gulf Coast: Connectivity, storage terminals key to higher exports Planned investments US crude export capacity to reach 4.9 mb/d by Tables LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Global oil demand, y-o-y change Figure 1.2 Global oil demand by product and fuel oil breakdown y-o-y change Figure 1.3 Marine fuel demand in OECD and major non-oecd countries and shares Figure 1.4 Impact of IMO regulation on the global product market y-o-y change Figure 1.5 US oil demand by product, y-o-y change Figure 1.6 OECD Europe oil demand, y-o-y change Figure 1.7 Chinese oil demand, y-o-y change Figure 1.8 Indian oil demand, y-o-y change Figure 1.9 Russian oil demand, y-o-y change OIL MARKET REPORT

3 Figure 1.10 Brazilian oil demand, y-o-y change Figure 1.11 Saudi Arabian oil demand, y-o-y change Figure 1.12 Iranian oil demand, y-o-y change Figure 2.1 Global liquids capacity growth Figure 2.2 Global capacity growth Figure 2.3 Highs and Lows: Change in total oil supply Figure 2.4 Change in crude oil production and gross revenues vs Figure 2.5 Global oil and gas upstream capital spending Figure 2.6 Production volumes by FID year Figure 2.7 Investment by sanction year Figure 2.8 Global oil discoveries Figure 2.9 Observed global decline rates for post peak conventional oil fields Figure 2.10 Annual supply loss from post-peak conventional crude oil fields Figure 2.11 Selected observed decline rates Figure 2.12 US total oil supply Figure 2.13 US supply growth Figure 2.14 Wellhead break-even by play Figure 2.15 LTO production by play Figure 2.16 Canada total oil supply Figure 2.17 Canada supply growth Figure 2.18 Mexican oil supply Figure 2.19 Other Latin America oil supply Figure 2.20 Other Latin America annual change Figure 2.21 North Sea oil supply Figure 2.22 North Sea annual change Figure 2.23 Russia oil supply Figure 2.24 Kazakhstan oil supply Figure 2.25 Azerbaijan oil supply Figure 2.26 Asia oil supply Figure 2.27 Asia supply - annual change Figure 2.28 Non-OPEC Africa oil supply Figure 2.29 Africa annual supply growth Figure 2.30 Venezuelan collapse blunts Mideast gains Figure 2.31 Iraq leads gains Figure 2.32 UAE s growth spurt Figure 2.33 Iran expands Figure 2.34 Saudi sustains spare capacity Figure 2.35 Venezuela s story of decline Figure 2.36 Angola: Past its prime Figure 2.37 Nigeria s fragile recovery Figure 2.38 Libya s tenuous comeback Figure 2.39 Ethanol (left) and biodiesel (right) production Figure 3.1 Riding the wave: oil prices rebound on crude stocks decline Figure 3.2 Crossing the mountain: refined product surplus is largely behind Figure 3.3 Upstream vs downstream earnings Figure 3.4 NGLs take the larger share in refined product demand substitution OIL MARKET REPORT

4 Figure 3.5 Global liquid fuel supply structure in 2017 (mb/d) Figure 3.6 Global refinery capacity net additions by region Figure 3.7 Growing excess refining capacity Figure 3.8 Top 10 refining regions by throughput (mb/d), 2023 vs Figure 3.9 Atlantic Basin vs East of Suez Figure 3.10 US refining: the sky is the limit? Figure 3.11 Latin American refining woes send imports soaring Figure 3.12 Refining renaissance in Europe Figure 3.13 Atlantic Basin refining throughput change by region Figure 3.14 CDU capacity net additions Figure 3.15 China s refining growth more balanced in Figure 3.16 Growing mismatch Figure 3.17 East of Suez refining throughput change by region Figure 3.18 Refining capacity additions to 2020 for selected units Figure 3.19 Solutions and challenges in the 3.2 mb/d of HSFO bunker switch in Figure 3.20 Future crude oil slate perceptions Figure 3.21 Top five net importers of crude oil Figure 3.22 Largest changes in net crude exports, Figure 3.23 East of Suez crude oil balance (adjusted for direct flows from Russia/Kazakhstan) Figure 3.24 Seaborne crude oil imports LIST OF MAPS Map 2.1 Venezuelan Oil Sector Map 3.1 Regional crude oil balances in 2017 and 2023 (mb/d) Map 3.2 Major crude trade flows, 2017 (2023), mb/d Map 3.3 Regional LPG/ethane balances in 2017 and 2023 (kb/d) Map 3.4 Regional gasoline/naphtha balances in 2017 and 2023 (kb/d) Map 3.5 Regional diesel/kerosene balances in 2017 and 2023 (kb/d) Map 3.6 Regional fuel oil balances in 2017 and 2023 (kb/d) Map 4.1 Canada s existing and planned pipelines Map 4.2 Texas existing and planned pipelines LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Global oil product demand by region (mb/d) Table 1.2 Global oil demand by product (mb/d) Table 1.3 Macroeconomic assumptions Table 1.4 Bunker deliveries in OECD and main Non-OECD countries (kb/d) Table 1.5 Available steam capacities Table 1.6 US ethylene production capacity additions Table 1.7 Chinese ethylene production capacity additions Table 1.8 Russian ethylene production capacity additions Table 1.9 Iran s ethylene production capacity additions Table 1.10 Selected ethylene production capacity additions Table 1.11 OECD oil demand by region (kb/d) OIL MARKET REPORT

5 Table 1.12 OECD Americas oil demand by product (kb/d) Table 1.13 OECD Americas oil demand by country (kb/d) Table 1.14 OECD Europe oil demand by product (kb/d) Table 1.15 OECD Europe oil demand in selected countries (kb/d) Table 1.16 OECD Asia Oceania oil demand by product (kb/d) Table 1.17 OECD Asia Oceania oil demand by country (kb/d) Table 1.18 Non-OECD countries oil demand (kb/d) Table 1.19 African oil demand by product (kb/d) Table 1.20 African oil demand in selected countries (kb/d) Table 1.21 Chinese oil demand (kb/d) Table 1.22 Chinese electric bus sales Table 1.23 Chinese Natural Gas vehicles Table 1.24 Chinese LNG trucks Table 1.25 Non-OECD Asia - excluding mainland China: oil demand by product (kb/d) Table 1.26 Non-OECD Asia - excluding mainland China: oil demand in selected countries (kb/d) Table 1.27 Non-OECD Europe oil demand (kb/d) Table 1.28 Non-OECD Europe oil demand in selected countries (kb/d) Table 1.29 FSU oil demand by product (kb/d) Table 1.30 FSU oil demand in selected countries (kb/d) Table 1.31 Latin America oil demand by product (kb/d) Table 1.32 Latin America oil demand in selected countries (kb/d) Table 1.33 Middle East oil demand by product (kb/d) Table 1.34 Middle East oil demand in selected countries (kb/d) Table 1.35 Non-OPEC supply (mb/d) Table 1.36 Estimated sustainable OPEC crude production capacity (mb/d) Table 2.1 US oil supply forecast (kb/d) Table 2.2 Brazilian oil supply forecast (kb/d) Table 2.3 Estimated OPEC condensate and NGL production (kb/d) Table 3.1 Total oil demand and call on refined products (mb/d) Table 3.2 Regional developments in refining capacity and throughput Table 4.1 Planned investments in Canadian takeaway capacity Table 4.2 Planned investments in Permian/Eagle Ford crude and condensate pipelines Table 4.3 Planned investments in US Gulf Coast crude and condensate pipelines Table 4.4 Existing and planned US Gulf Coast crude export terminals OIL MARKET REPORT

Presentation. at the. Bank of Canada. Ottawa, 21 July Antoine Halff

Presentation. at the. Bank of Canada. Ottawa, 21 July Antoine Halff Presentation at the Bank of Canada Ottawa, 21 July 2014 Antoine Halff The oil market at a junction Balances loosen up on paper but must be seen in perspective The unconventional supply revolution enters