Adjusting Power System Planning to Changes in the Power Sector

Transcription

1 Increasing shares of Variable Renewable Energy Long-term planning and flexibility of the electricity system Adjusting Power System Planning to Changes in the Power Sector Amman, Jordan 28th 29th November 2017

2 1. Climate Policy 2. Global Energy Trends 3. Energy in the MENA Region 4. Characteristics of Renewable Energies (RE) 4.1 Wind 4.2 PV 4.3 CSP 5. Changes in power system due to VRE - expansion 6. Digitalization 7. Transferring Business Environment 8. C / Sells demonstration project 2

3 1. Climate Policy 2. Global Energy Trends 3. Energy in the MENA Region 4. Characteristics of Renewable Energies (RE) 4.1 Wind 4.2 PV 4.3 CSP 5. Changes in power system due to VRE - expansion 6. Digitalization 7. Transferring Business Environment 8. C / Sells demonstration project 3

4 COP21 - simplified Emission coal oil historically grown energy infrastructure gas Demand for Energy Services nuclear solar hydro? Wind resources know how 4

5 Energiewende has many Faces Demographic Change Democratization of Infratructure Digitalisation of all sectors Industry 4.0 Ageing of infrastructure 5 Reduction of heat demand Problems of Energy infeed From renewables

6 Climate Policy Reducing fossil fuel consumption. Mitigation Global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soons as possible. Paris agreement Key facts Limit increase of global average temperature below 2 C above pre-industrial levels. Adaptation Strengthen the ability to deal with the impacts of climate change. Provide international support for adaptation to developing countries. As of 16 November Parties signed the agreement, 170 Parties ratified. At COP23 in Bonn 26 leading economies sign up the phasing out of coal-fired power generation. 6

7 Smart Grids integrate existing and future Infrastructure Our Understanding of Smart Grids (SG) Water Management Industry Energy Management Open Grid Smart Home E-Mobility ICT Closed Grid Generation TSO DSO Storages SCADA Smart Meter Market Service Decentralized Generation Security Transit Source Fichtner acc. acatech 7

8 1. Climate Policy 2. Global Energy Trends 3. Energy in the MENA Region 4. Characteristics of Renewable Energies (RE) 4.1 Wind 4.2 PV 4.3 CSP 5. Changes in power system due to VRE - expansion 6. Digitalization 7. Transferring Business Environment 8. C / Sells demonstration project 8

9 Technological Mega Trends Technology Basis centralized Generation more Technologies, more Constraints Worldwide Megatrends Multi-Purpose Energy Infrastructure Centralized Control (TSO) increased Data Volume and faster Security? dezentral Smartness Well established Demand Forecasts complex Projections + flexible Optimization volatile Generation + stochast. Demands well defined Communication new Techniques (Cloud, In-Memory, SaaS) Digitalization of all Living Areas

10 World CO2-Emissions Scenario BAU 13 Current Policies Scenario assumes no changes in policies. (BAU Business as usual) New Policies Scenario takes account of broad policy commitments and plans. 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with the goal of limiting the global increase in temperature by 2 C.

11 CO2 Emissions of different power generation technologies RE technologies 14

12 1. Climate Policy 2. Global Energy Trends 3. Energy in the MENA Region 4. Characteristics of Renewable Energies (RE) 4.1 Wind 4.2 PV 4.3 CSP 5. Changes in power system due to VRE - expansion 6. Digitalization 7. Transferring Business Environment 8. C / Sells demonstration project 15

13 Middle East and North Africa - MENA Countries 380 million inhabitants 60 % of world`s oil reserves 45% of world`s natural gas reserves 16

14 Vast and growing potentials in the Arab World big efforts in Germany I. Technical potentials of Renewables Offshore EJ/y Onshore EJ/y Primary Energy Consumption Demand World World 2010: ~ 2010: 500 EJ ~ 500 EJ Africa Middle East Europe 0 Africa Middle East Europe EJ/y EJ/y Photovoltaic 4000 CSP World 1000 World 0 Africa Middle East Europe 0 Africa Middle East Europe Sources: BMWi (2012b); Google Earth (2012); Quaschning (2011), UBA (2009) 17

15 Conventional Power forms the basis of today s electricity generation II. Gross electrical power generation 2011 Germany 612 TWh Arab World 906 TWh Diesel 0.9% Hard coal 19% Lignite 25% Nuclear energy 18% Natural gas 14% Others 5% Renewables 20% Renewables 3,7% Others 3.6% Combined Cycle 16.5% Gas Turbines 31.0% Steam Turbines 44.2% Sources: AGEB (2012); AUE (2010); AUE (2009); BMWi (2012a) 18

16 Declining demands in Germany vs. growing demands in the Arab World III. Electricity demand in 2050 (in TWh) Germany 461 TWh 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, BMWi & BMU (2010) Energy Concept 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Arab World ~ TWh Saudi Arabia Bahrain UAE Qatar Kuwait Oman Yemen Iraq Syria Lebanon Jordan Tunisia Algeria Marocco Libya Egypt Forecast modified on bases of DLR (2005) and AUE (2010;2009) Not included: Comores, Djibouti, Mauretania, Palestine, Somalia, Sudan Sources: AGEB (2012); AUE (2010); AUE (2009); BMWi and BMU (2010); DLR (2005); GDNÄ (2011) 20

17 More reliably available capacity of Renewables in the Arab World IV. Energiewende Electricity Concept 2050 Germany - 80% CO 2-25% Electricity Demand 80% Renewables Electrical Demand 461 TWh 80% Renewables mainly Wind & PV 20% Gas Turbines and Others Capacity in GW Arab World Peak load Sources: AUE (2010); BMWi and BMU (2010); dena (2012); DLR (2005);!? * Assumption Electricity Demand ~ TWh 20% Gas Turbines and Others 80% Renewables mainly Solar Energy 21

18 Flexibility of Conventional Power is required V. Power generation in Germany (in TWh) 14 Renewables Residual load Load Volatility in Demand Flexibility of Conventional Power + ICT Electricity demand and generation + Storage 2020 in TWh weekly Volatility resolution in Generation Sources: IWES (2009) 22

19 New Conventional Power and later on P2G are inevitable VI. Reliably available capacity in Germany (in GW) ,3 8,3 16,0 68,4 7,3 12,1 17,8 26,4 31,2 7,3 19,5 10,0 39, P2G +ICT +grids! Storage Renewables Conventional (CHP) New Conventional (mainly gas turbines) Conventional (existing system) Peak load Sources: dena (2012) 23

20 Integrated, intelligent Masterplan is required for the Arab World & Germany VII. Conclusion Capacity Adaptations and increase of Flexibility of Conventional Power, Renewables (Solar and Wind), Grid to cover the rising demand in the Arab World to enable large scale Renewables in Germany Primary Energy Demand World 2010: ~ 500 EJ Smart Grids (ICT) irreversible world wide process required for system integration to increase flexibility of demand and generation Power to Gas large scale storage required for renewable world to utilize the installed capacities of the Renewables Sources: acatech (2012); Google Earth (2012); Quaschning (2011) 24

21 Power2Gas required for long term Storage 25

22 Installed Capacity by type of Generation MW Steam Gas Combined Cycle Diesel Coal Hydro Wind Solar Others 0 Source: Arab Union of Electricity 26

23 Solar potential map Source: Solargis Attractive solar potential in all MENA Countries 27

24 Wind potential map Source: Vaisala, 3Tier Attractive wind potential in some MENA regions 28

25 Geothermal potential Map Source: BMU Attractive geothermal potential in some MENA regions 29

26 1. Climate Policy 2. Global Energy Trends 3. Energy in the MENA Region 4. Characteristics of Renewable Energies (RE) 4.1 Wind 4.2 PV 4.3 CSP 5. Changes in power system due to VRE - expansion 6. Digitalization 7. Transferring Business Environment 8. C / Sells demonstration project 32

27 What are Variable Renewable Energies (VRE)? Power generation characteristics of different technologies 1 day load curve conventional power plants wind onshore wind offshore Solar PV hydro biomass geothermal Hydro Biomass Load Source: Agora Energiewende Continuous power production Solar and wind energy are Variable Renewable Energies (VRE) 33

28 Facts on Energiewende Trends 34 34

29 The German EEG is a Success Story Fact #1: Power Generation of Renewables increased e.g. in Germany from 20TWh (1990) to > 200 TWh (today) ca. 400 TWh Electricity Generation by Energy Source [TWh] at least 9 Federal Elections in Germany Waste Photovoltaics Biomass Water Wind Source: BDEW (2/2015) 2050

30 The new Owners (85%) wish to participate Fact #2: only 15% of Renewables are in the Hands of Utilities Ownerships in installed Renewable Energy Capacities ( MW) Private Persons 42 % Other 1 % Big 4 7 % Regional Producers 2 % Other PSCs 3 % International PSCs 3 % Farmers 9% Funds / Bankers 11 % Project Planners 15 % Industrial Companies / Trade 7 % Contracting Companies <1 % PSC = power supply company Source: trend research 2010; Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, Bau und Reaktorsicherheit, Ralf Klöpfer

31 /MWh Price Dichotomy will lead to a Collapse of the current Markets Fact #3: EEX Electricity Prices decrease while Wholesale Prices increase 52 Wholesale Market Price Preisverlauf Großhandelsmarkt Household electricity (gross), minimum Household electricity (gross), maximum Trade electricity, minimum Actual value (14/04/2015): 32,6 /MWh (Source: EEX) Merit-Order with high renewable energy amount Marginal costs [ /MWh] Electricity price Spotmarkt Electricity demand e.g. 70 GW Reserve capacities Range of electricity price development for different sectors in Baden- Württemberg Actual value (2013): 28,85 cent/kwh for households (Source: statista) Merit Order Dilemma Trade electricity, maximum Industry electricity (MV), min Industry electricity (MV), max Energy intensive industries, min Energy intensive industries, max Renewable Nuclear Lignite Hard coal Natural gas Oil GW

32 Renewables are competitive - the Trend goes on Fact #4: Cost for dezentral Energy Production dropped by 75% in one Decade Households Industry Wind Photovoltaics Electricity costs Households kwh/a Households kwh/a Industry 0,5 2 GWh/a Industry GWh/a EEG-Compensation PV rooftop < 30 kw PV rooftop 30 kw 100 kw PV rooftop 100 kw 1000 kw PV rooftop > 1000 kw PV free-standing Wind Offshore incl. bonus Wind Offshore Wind Onshore (5 years) Wind Onshore basic remuneration Wind Offshore basic remuneration Batteries Electricity cost and EEG-Compensation development, Source: B. Burger, Energiekonzept 2050, june 2010, FVEE, Update from Investment range Pumped-storage plant

33 Flexibilities are the Key to Business in the Energiewende Fact #5: Potential of Flexibility is >12GW already Mio. Euro Flexibility Potential in Germany Industry TCS Households Communal Hours 1,800 1,600 1,400 Der Wert der Flexibilitäten wird in den kommenden 10 Jahren von 350 Mio. auf 1,6 Mrd. ansteigen 1,200 Range between GW 1, central operations Zentrale Optimierun g Highest Potential in Households Potential of Load Reduction without consideration of Smart Home, Storage and decentralized Energy Management (2012) Source: EWI Lokale local Optimierun operations 0 g Source: Ralf Klöpfer, Energy Talks Ossiach 2014

34 1. Climate Policy 2. Global Energy Trends 3. Energy in the MENA Region 4. Characteristics of Renewable Energies (RE) 4.1 Wind 4.2 PV 4.3 CSP 5. Changes in power system due to VRE - expansion 6. Digitalization 7. Transferring Business Environment 8. C / Sells demonstration project 40

35 Wind Turbine Components The wind turbine converts the kinetic energy of the wind to mechanical energy and then to electrical energy. 1. Foundation 2. Connection to electric grid 3. Tower 4. Access ladder 5. Wind orientation control 6. Nacelle 7. Generator 8. Anemometer 9. Brake 10.Gearbox 11.Rotor blade 12.Blade pitch control 13.Rotor hub 41 Image: A. Nordmann

36 Wind Turbine Characteristics A wind turbine consists of Rotor (blades lengths that exceed 70m ) Tower (> 140 m) Nacelle (weight > 450 t) Foundation (diameter 25 m) Images: DOE/NREL 42 Images: Paul Anderson

37 Source: DEWI GmbH Wind power characteristics learning curves, economies of scale Capacity of a single onshore wind turbine MW 2-5 Typical capacity of an onshore wind farm MW Typical electricity generation costs US Ct. / kwh

38 Image: Siemens Energy Pitch Pitch turbines with variable rotor speed Blade angle is enlarged with the pitch system angle of attack becomes smaller power coefficient decreases power reduction Allows adjustment of the rotation speed to wind speed increased efficiency Pitch control allows more precise power control than stall method 44

39 Options for Connection of Wind Turbines Depending on the size of a wind farm different options for grid connection result: Distribution Network: Wind farms with capacities up to ~5 MW HV Medium Voltage Busbar: Wind farms with capacities of 5 to 12 MW High Voltage Power: Wind farms with capacities higher 30 MW MV Distribution Network High Voltage Power Medium Voltage Busbar 45

40 46 Global Installed Wind Power Capacity 2016

41 1. Climate Policy 2. Global Energy Trends 3. Energy in the MENA Region 4. Characteristics of Renewable Energies (RE) 4.1 Wind 4.2 PV 4.3 CSP 5. Changes in power system due to VRE - expansion 6. Digitalization 7. Transferring Business Environment 8. C / Sells demonstration project 47

42 Basic principle of a photovoltaic plant Photovoltaic modules connected in series (strings) Inverter (DC/AC) Text Text Electricity meter / grid connection Mounting structure (or tracking system) Components are proven in numerous plants and successfully in operation Mayor cost reduction due to mass production, economy of scale, technological advancements 48

43 Solar Irradiation for PV Application in Middle East up to 50% difference in solar irradiation between January and July 49 Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) is the total irradiance from the sun on a horizontal surface on Earth. It is the sum of direct irradiance and diffuse horizontal irradiance

44 Challenge - Ramp rates due to clouds incoming solar irradiation can vary e.g. due to clouds (see figure below) clouds move over the field, but shading does not happen at once usually there is always some diffuse irradiation available for PV impact depends on plant size, shape and cloud speed Example in Middle East: MW PV plant, maximum ramp rate: -7 MW/min (70%/min) MW PV Plant, maximum ramp rate: MW/min (68%/min) Batteries can smoothen power production from PV 50

45 Examples of utility scale PV plants Chile, several PV plants MW Location: north of Chile, Atacama Desert Solar irradiation (GHI): 2550 kwh/m² 100 MWp Llano de Llampos 73 MWp Crucero 70 MWp Javiera 51

46 Examples of utility scale PV plants South Africa, several PV plants MW Solar irradiation (GHI): 2100 kwh/m² 81 MW Kathu 64 MW Lesedi 64 MW Letsatsi 52

47 Examples of utility scale PV plants DEWA, Dubai, 13 MW MW MW (future: up to 5 GW solar capacity) Name: MBR Al Maktoum Solar Park, 50 km south of Dubai Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE): 2.99 USc/kWh 132/400 kv substation 13 MW 200 MW Example of area for 5 GW > 150 km² 3.7 km 53 Source: Google Earth

48 Building integrated PV (BIPV) Photovoltaic modules are integrated into the building envelope Dual-purpose to serve as building envelope material and power generator Connection possibilities: Interfaced with the available utility grid Designed as stand-alone, off-grid systems 54

49 55 Building integrated PV

50 PV power significant cost decrease 4 October 2017: 1.79 US ct/kwh for 300 MW Source: 56

51 PPA price offers - last trend: less than 2 US ct/kwh! learning curves, economies of scale 10/2017 Source: International Energy Agency

52 Global total PV installation scenario until China: 43.4 GW Germany: 39.7 GW Japan: 34.3 GW USA: 25.9 GW Italy: 18.6 GW UK: 9.1 GW France: 6.5 GW Australia: 5.1 GW Spain: 5.4 GW India: 5.0 GW 58 Source: Solarpower Europe 2016

53 Global annual PV installation scenario until Source: Solarpower Europe 2016

54 1. Climate Policy 2. Global Energy Trends 3. Energy in the MENA Region 4. Characteristics of Renewable Energies (RE) 4.1 Wind 4.2 PV 4.3 CSP 5. Changes in power system due to VRE - expansion 6. Digitalization 7. Transferring Business Environment 8. C / Sells demonstration project 60

55 Solar- Chimney Wind Turbine Concentrated Solar Power Plants (CSP) Non- Concentrating Linear Fresnel Solar Thermal (CSP) Linear-focusing (single axis) Parabolic Trough Rankine Cycle (ST) CSP Central Receiver Solar Power Plants Concentration Concentration and Temperature Ratio increasing Thermal Energy Storage Integrated Solar Combined Cycle Point-focusing (dual axias) Electric Power Brayton Cycle Dish Stirling Engine Concentrating (CPV) Photovoltaic (PV) DC-AC Inverter Non- Concentr Key facts: Main CSP technologies: Parabolic Trough and Central Receiver (Solar Tower) Conversion of solar irradiation into thermal energy and subsequent processing thermal energy with conventional plant technology Possibility to include a thermal energy storage or to hybridize High capacity factors possible Dispatchable solar power Incorporation in conventional power plants Increased grid stability Mainly conventional components used Economy of scale leads to larger plants (up to 300 MW) High local shares possible 61

56 1. Climate Policy 2. Global Energy Trends 3. Energy in the MENA Region 4. Characteristics of Renewable Energies (RE) 4.1 Wind 4.2 PV 4.3 CSP 5. Changes in power system due to VRE - expansion 6. Digitalization 7. Transferring Business Environment 8. C / Sells demonstration project 65

57 Change of operation regime of conventional power plants Electricity supply without RE Electricity supply with high RE-share Gas turbine Load RE excess Combined cycle Coal Nuclear PV wind RE scarcity Conventional power plants are operated according to load characteristic Conventional power plants are operated according to RE availability and load characteristic Residual load regular, foreseeable Residual load not regular, not foreseable short operation time power plants are implemented to serve this load characteristic operating hours high residual load high ramp-rate no base load Major task: supply MWh (as cheap as possible) Major task: management of discontinuity 66 RE Renewable Energies

58 RE require new power system planning approach Electricity supply without RE Electricity supply with high RE-share few large generators lots of generators (s, m, l) plentitude of prosumers power generation = power demand (load) power generation = power demand (load) how much? how much? how much?? how much?? how much?? when? when? when?? when?? when?? where? where? where?? where?? where?? increase of power system complexity Traditional (load based) power system planning New planning approaches / tools needed 67 s, m, l small, medium, large RE Renewable Energies

59 Expanding renewable power generation Why and when is sectoral linkage needed? 15 % RE (annual average) 35 % RE RE Renewable Energies EV Electric Vehicle 50 % RE PV wind 24 h load 100% RE 6% RE RE excess conventional power plants time shift no RE excess no need for Sectoral Linkage Charging EVs Power to heat Power to gas gas storage (daily, weekly) + - renewable gas to electricity replacing fossil fuels in other sectors Mobility sector Heating sector Industry sector replacing fossil fuels in electricity sector Sectoral Linkage new Business models Electricity Sector 68 To increase RE share to high levels temporary RE excess and Sectoral Linkage are needed

60 Expanding renewable power generation Operation of a future grid with high shares of RE feed in traditional distribution grid 380 kv 110 kv future distribution grid 380 kv 110 kv Legend HMS HV/MV-Substation MLS MV/LV-Substation VRS voltage regulated substation ICT Information & Communication Technologies HMS HMS I - Current metering 10 kv (20 kv ) 0,4 kv I I ¼ h U drag pointer MLS 10 kv (20 kv ) 0,4 kv MLS I I I U F I ¼ h I I U VRS U I F U F - Voltage metering - Flexibilites new Business models Grid conditions: few information available enough for safe operation of the grid Grid conditions: Real-time data available Forecasting: Detection of critical grid situations in advance Optimization: Avoidance of critical grid situations in advance by changing operation mode of flexible consumers / generators Result: continued safe operation of distribution grid application of advanced ICT necessary 69

61 1. Climate Policy 2. Global Energy Trends 3. Energy in the MENA Region 4. Characteristics of Renewable Energies (RE) 4.1 Wind 4.2 PV 4.3 CSP 5. Changes in power system due to VRE - expansion 6. Digitalization 7. Transferring Business Environment 8. C / Sells demonstration project 70

62 Developments in the Information Technology (IT) IT technological achievements Data collection and processing Tools New applications Performance Collection Activity Tracking t Linking optimization based on forecasts preventive action Volume Big data Storage Sensors Internet Installed numbers Data volume, Speed 2017 Availability Analysis Learning systems tools for analysis, algorithms... in real time Characteristics Correlations Smart data t t t Cloud-based systems Platforms new Business models New optimization methods Avoidance of unscheduled outages Predictive Maintainance Optimization of plant operation Cutting of costs

63 Digitisation = simplification = new business models Principal change in business models new Business models Business model 1 Business model 2: Access to end product via "ancillary products" User Final product old Technologies Evolutionary optimization new Technologies Change is revolutionary Electricity Mining, oil exploration, coal, ships, blast furnaces, thermodynamic cycle, central power plants, power lines, electricity billing, PV, batteries, local, self supply Mobility Combustion engine, exhaust gas technology, oil production, ships, refineries, fuel storage and logistics, petrol stations, sales staff,... Electric vehicles, batteries, renewable energies Music Refineries, plastics, CD, trade, opening hours,... Streaming Information Paper machines, printing, logistics, newspapers, libraries,... Internet Goods Department store, assortment, opening hours, sales staff,... Plattforms, 3D-Print Cost of end product Complex structures / processes, interfaces, restrictions,... complicated, expensive necessary to enable business model 1 networked, automated, simple,.. Potential for: efficiency Increase simplification Establishment of digital workflows / processes Automation driven by IT companies Driver: Easier service delivery Target: Become a supplier 72 old new

64 Innovative Business Models Caterva Strombank Electricity market Market for primary balancing power Central Control (Caterva) 16 kw for balancing power; feeding back of used electricity BESS in residential area (Strombank) Account 1 Battery Account 2 Account 3 battery Battery Battery 20 kw, 21 kwh renting by HH for 20 year period Energy, Data HH PV HH PV HH PV PV-systems in HH: 3-15 kw HH PV HH PV Industry CHP HH - households 73

65 Structure of data-based and smart economy Cloud- Computing Platforms learning systems, artificial intelligence Big Data analysis tools Smart Data 3. visualization forecasts optimization Internet collection information of data remote control optimization automation new Business models 1. Plants, infrastructure Mobility Energy Buildings Production cars public transport traffic control parking areas charging station conventional renewables storages grids residential commercial public industrial machines devices Smart Energy / Smart City Smart industry 74 Processes data based forecast based harmonized highly automated

66 1. Climate Policy 2. Global Energy Trends 3. Energy in the MENA Region 4. Characteristics of Renewable Energies (RE) 4.1 Wind 4.2 PV 4.3 CSP 5. Changes in power system due to VRE - expansion 6. Digitalization 7. Transferring Business Environment 8. C / Sells demonstration project 75

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68 1. Climate Policy 2. Global Energy Trends 3. Energy in the MENA Region 4. Characteristics of Renewable Energies (RE) 4.1 Wind 4.2 PV 4.3 CSP 5. Changes in power system due to VRE - expansion 6. Digitalization 7. Transferring Business Environment 8. C / Sells demonstration project 77

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70 Contact Dr. Albrecht Reuter Telefon Mobil Fax Tobias Rehrl Telefon Mobil Fax Internet Internet 79