Overview of Task8 Activities. Potential for Very Large Scale PV (VLS-PV) Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011.

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1 Overview of Task8 Activities Potential for Very Large Scale PV Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011 Keiichi KOMOTO Operating Agent of IEA Task8, Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Japan Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

2 Contents Overview and history of Task8 activities Draft contents of Task8 Phase-4 report Next step: Task8 Phase-5 Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

3 Overview and history of Task8 Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

4 What s Task8? Objectives To examine and evaluate the feasibility of Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation () Systems on desert areas, which have a capacity ranging from over multi-mw to GW To develop practical project proposals toward implementing systems in the future systems can be classified, based on their locations: Land based (arid to semi-arid, deserts) Other concept (water based, lakes, coastal, international waters) Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

5 Task8 participating countries Japan (OA) Canada China France Germany Israel Italy Korea the Netherlands U.S.A. Mongolia (observer) Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

6 Solar Pyramid km 2 Sahara km 2 Total Land Surface Total Earth Surface Gobi Covered by η =15% PV modules (0.5 space factor, assuming 0.7 system performance ratio) (=114 PWh/y = kwh/y) 412 EJ/year PV Electricity World Primary Energy Supply In 2009 = 509 EJ/year Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011 (1 EJ = J)

7 Type of deserts Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

8 Solar resource of world six deserts Negev Thar Gobi Sonora Sahara n.a. low Crop availability Steppe high Desert NDVI ymax Great Sandy 752 PWh: 5.3 times of world energy demand in 2009 Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

9 Means and schedule We are here! Subtask 1: Conceptual study of system Subtask 2: Case studies for selected regions for installation of Subtask 3: Comprehensive evaluation of feasibility of systems Subtask 4: Practical project proposals for initial stage of systems for some desert areas Subtask 5: General instruction for practical project proposals to realise systems in the future Subtask 6: Future technical options for realising systems Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011 Phase 4

10 History of Task8 Phase 1: Potential evaluation of Technical feasibility Potential of environmental and socio-economic effects Proposal of sustainable concept and approach Phase 2: Feasibility studies of in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, Gobi and west Australia Concept of desert region community development Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

History of Task8 Phase 3: 2006-2008 Understandings of various

Environmental aspects Technical aspects roadmap toward 2100

technical options and case studies Possible scenario and

11 History of Task8 Phase 3: Understandings of various aspects of Socio-economic aspects Financial aspects Environmental aspects Technical aspects roadmap toward 2100 Phase 4: (on-going) technical and financial guideline technical options and case studies Possible scenario and strategy for Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

Energy from the Desert Feasibility of Very Large Scale

Practical Proposals for Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Systems:

Socio-Economic, Financial, Technical and Environmental Aspects:

12 Energy from the Desert Feasibility of Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation () Systems: Published in 2003 Practical Proposals for Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Systems: Published in 2007 Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Systems, Socio-Economic, Financial, Technical and Environmental Aspects: Published in September 2009 Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

Conceptual view of scheme 25MW PV output Start-up PV system from outside for the first 5MW facility and the neighboring demand 5MW facility 5MW 5MW 4 PV facility 5MW PV

13 Conceptual view of scheme 25MW PV output Start-up PV system from outside for the first 5MW facility and the neighboring demand 5MW facility 5MW 5MW 4 PV facility 5MW PV 5MW 20MW PV 5MW PV PV output output 20MW 20MW 20MW PV 20MW PV PV PV 50MW facility 50MW PV output Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

14 (MUSD) Socio-economic effects Expenditures PV module manufacturing facility in Morocco Induced production (Case I) Multi-crystalline Si, 5 MW/year Case I Case L Induced production (Case L) : imported PV cell : local production of PV cells Total induced (1 000 USD) Value added (1 000 USD) Job creation (man-years) I L I L I L 1 Photovoltaic Misc. petroleum and coal products Petroleum refineries Electricity and water Metals smelting and pressing Fabricated metal products Non-electrical machinery Electric and electronic equipment Chemicals Rubber and Plastic Commerce and transport Insurance Other services Others Total Induced production coefficient 1,36 3,53 Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

8MW large Scale PV system in Dunghuang, China 200kWp Array 200kWp Array 200kWp Array 200kWp Array Wiring Wiring Wiring Wring DC DC DC DC 200kVA Inverter 200kVA Inverter 200kVA Inverter 200kVA

15 8MW large Scale PV system in Dunghuang, China 200kWp Array 200kWp Array 200kWp Array 200kWp Array Wiring Wiring Wiring Wring DC DC DC DC 200kVA Inverter 200kVA Inverter 200kVA Inverter 200kVA Inverter AC AC AC SG-1 SG-2 SG-3 AC SG-4 0.4kV Distrib ution 0.4kV/35kV 1000kVA Transf Output 35kV 高压合闸及防雷 HV- G1 35kV Grid 200kWp Array Wring DC 200kVA Inverter AC SG-5 Investment (Million Yuan) Share (%) Equipment PV module Inverter Transformer Test & Monitoring Civil Construction Transportation and Installation Feasibility Study and Preliminary Investment Miscellaneous Total Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

16 65 LS-PV plants, ranged from 1MW to 20MW, have been installed by the end of Total capacity in this field is 400MW. Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

on the Gobi desert on Mongolia (tentative proposal) 1 st -stage: R&D/pilot phase 1 MW 2 nd -stage: Demonstration phase 10 MW * 4 = 40 MW 3 rd -stage: Deployment phase 100 MW * 5 + 500 MW = 1 GW GOR

17 on the Gobi desert on Mongolia (tentative proposal) 1 st -stage: R&D/pilot phase 1 MW 2 nd -stage: Demonstration phase 10 MW * 4 = 40 MW 3 rd -stage: Deployment phase 100 MW * MW = 1 GW GOR TSETSERLEG ERDENET Kharkhorin BULGAN ARVAYKHEER DALANZADGAD DARKHAN SELENDUM SUKHBAATAR ZUUNMOD ULAANBAATAR BAGANUUR MANDALGOVI Oyu Tolgoi CHOIR UNDURKHAAN BORUNDUR SAINSHAND CHOIBALSAN BARUUN-URT Zamiin-Uud LEGEND 220 kv Substation 110 kv Substation 35 kv Substation Power Plant Diesel power station Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

18 Policy target for PV development Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

19 IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Desert Region Community Development Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

20 Generation cost (US cents/kwh) 40 Generation cost (cusd/kwh) Financial analysis Gobi Sainshand Gobi Huhhot Generation cost of system Sahara-Ouarzazate Negev Thar Great Sandy Sahara-Nema Sonoran Annual global horizontal irradiation (kwh/m2 year) Based on technical cost analysis Interest rate: 3%/year (100% debt) Depreciation: 30 years Generation cost (US cents/kwh) Module price 40 4 USD/W 3 USD/W 302 USD/W Gobi Sainshand 1 USD/W Gobi Huhhot Sahara-Ouarzazate Negev Thar Great Sandy Sahara-Nema Sonoran Annual global horizontal irradiation (kwh/m2 year) Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011 Module price 4 USD/W 3 USD/W 2 USD/W 1 USD/W Based on financial model 80% Debt (Interest rate: 3%/year), 20% Equity (IRR 15%) Reserve, Insurance, Security, etc.

Future Energy Scenario CSP PV Overview of Task8 Activities,

21 Future Energy Scenario CSP PV Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011 Source: WGBU, Germany

22 roadmap: assumption (1) Rural and minigrid Urban and community grid Share of cumulative installation [%] < 0 < 0 < 0 Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011 (>10MW) Annual growth rate of new installation [%] ~ ~ ~ ~ 3 15 ~ ~ 0 3 ~ ~ 0

23 Cumulative PV installation toward 2100 Cumulative PV Installation [GW] Cumulative installation [GW] 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Net Stock GW 10 TW 75TW 100 GW 2 TW World total: 30 TW 133 TW in 2100 Cumulative PV installation Rural and mini-grid Urban and community grid Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December % 30% 20% TW 67 TW 2100

24 Annual installation Anual Installation [GW] Annual installation [GW/year Net Stock 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, : 17 GW/year GW 10 TW 75TW 133 TW World total: 4,5 TW/year67 TW 100 GW 2 TW 30 TW World Total PV Annual PV installation 2030 Installation : 236 GW/year 2040 Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December New Installation 2070 : 2,2 TW/year 2080 Replacement

25 Draft contents of Task8 Phase-4 report Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

26 Task8 4 th -phase report (tentative) Title Energy from the Desert: Very Large Scale PV power state-of-the-art and into the future Table of contents (1) Introduction & Overview Introduction PV and other renewable energy issues Trends and potential of large scale solar energy utilisation Environmental aspects of Socio-economic aspects of Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

27 Trends in LS-PV systems installation 120 Capacity of LS-PV system [MW/system] MW-scale PV system installation in each year Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011 Source: IEA Task8

28 Trends in LS-PV systems installation Cumulative installatoin [MW] 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Cumulative Installation MW-scale PV systems All applications Ratio of MW-scale 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ratio of MW-scale PV installation Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011 Source: IEA Task8

29 Large Scale PV systems in the world Sarnia, Canada Montalto di Castro, Italy Finsterwalde, Germany Senftenberg, Germany Lobpuri, Thailand (to be completed in Nov.) Lieberose, Germany San Bellino, Italy Olmedilla de Alarcón, Spain Copper Mountain, USA Avenal, USA Straßkirchen, Germany Tutow, Germany Serenissima, Italy Puertollano, Spain Moura, Portugal Kothen, Germany Cellino San Marco, Italy Waldpolenz, USA Ohotnikovo, Ukraine Katoen Natie, Belgium (BIPV) c-si TF-Si CdTe non-identified Note: Power is specified in MWp if DC array power is known. If DC array power is unknown, the output power is specified. In some cases it is unclear if the power plant power is output or DC array power Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011 MWp

30 Life-Cycle Analysis (updated) Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

31 Task8 4 th -phase report (tentative) Table of contents (2) Engineering and financial guideline for VLS- PV systems Technical engineering guideline Financial guideline technical options and applications into the grid Storage for PV solar - Methane Other long term options Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

32 guideline Engineering and financial guideline for VLS- PV Systems Concept proposal Pre-engineering Positive decision Technical engineering design Rough design Final design Final decision Project implementation Financial design Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

33 Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

34 Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

35 Task8 4 th -phase report (tentative) Table of contents (3) Case studies of for selected regions 100MW PV system in Jordan in Africa in Asia in Israel Sahara Solar Breeder plan strategy and recommendations Possible scenario of project Implementation strategies for policies in desert regions Conclusions and Recommendations Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

36 Implementing strategy Possible contributions of systems on global/regional sustainability issues Total Energy consumption Energy issues Bulk energy supply CO2 emission Climate change GDP Population CO2 free energy supply Water demand in industrial sector Driving Forces Endogenous parameters Countermeasures () Water demand in household sector Total Water consumption Water depletion Food demand Water demand in agriculture sector Water Desalination Land area requirement Land use change Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011 Food production in desert

37 Three scenarios and underlying assumptions BaU scenario is developed assuming limited progress of PV. Additional PV penetrations were assumed for SC-1 to SC-3 scenarios in order to evaluate the impacts of PV in the future. The PV scenario was identical to the one in the previous book Cumulative installation [GW] 140, , ,000 80, ,000 40,000 20, Cumulative PV installation 2040 Rural and mini-grid Urban and community grid 2050 World total: 133 TW in % 30% 20% Scenario BaU SC-1 SC-2 SC-3 Description Business as usual. It is assumed that current trend continues until Power generated from is used directly in the energy mix. All kinds of energy would be substituted by Power generated from PV is used directly in the energy mix.. Only Fossil fuels are substituted by power generation Power generated from PV is used for water production (RO). The reminding energy is used for power supply Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

SC-1 BaU Scenario: VS Power SC-1 generated Scenario from is used directly in the energy mix.

2080 2100 Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Biomass and waste Gas Oil Coal 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 (10,000) CO2 emission (Mt-CO2) 2005 2020 2040 2060 2080

demand in 2050 and 2100 respectively Gas Cumulitive CO2 reductions will 0 Oil 2005 reach 2020 to 2040 530 Gt 2060 CO2eq 2080 which 2100 is (10,000) Coal equivalent to 20 times of today

38 SC-1 BaU Scenario: VS Power SC-1 generated Scenario from is used directly in the energy mix. All kinds of energy would be substituted by BaU Scenario 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Biomass and waste Gas Oil Coal 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 (10,000) CO2 emission (Mt-CO2) LULUCF Gas Oil Coal 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 SC-1 Scenario 5,000 0 Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) can provide 3% and 26% of primary energy demand in 2050 and 2100 respectively Gas Cumulitive CO2 reductions will 0 Oil 2005 reach 2020 to Gt 2060 CO2eq 2080 which 2100 is (10,000) Coal equivalent to 20 times of today s annual emission Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December Other renewables Other PV VLSPV Hydro Nuclear Biomass and waste 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 CO2 emission (Mt-CO2) LULUCF Gas Oil Coal

39 SC-2 BaU Scenario:Power VS SC-2 generated Scenario from PV is used directly in the energy mix. Only Fossil fuels are substituted by power generation BaU Scenario 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Biomass and waste Gas Oil Coal 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 (10,000) CO2 emission (Mt-CO2) LULUCF Gas Oil Coal 50,000 45,000 40,000 25,000 respectively 20,000 15,000 SC-2 Scenario 35,000 can provide 3% and 26% of 30,000 primary energy demand in 2050 and ,000 5,000 0 Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) CO2 emission (Mt-CO2) 60,000 Gas Cumulitive CO2 reductions will Oil reach 2020 to Gt 2060 CO2eq 2080 which 2100 is Coal (10,000) equivalent to 34 times of today s annual emission Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December Other renewables Other PV VLSPV Hydro Nuclear Biomass and waste 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 LULUC F Gas Oil

40 12,000 SC-3 BaU Scenario:Power VS SC-3 generated Scenario from PV is used for water production (RO). The reminding energy is used for power supply Water Withdrawal (10^9 m3) 10,000 8,000 6,000 Agriculture Municipal 25,000 20,000 4,000 2, ,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Industry Current Demand Increased caused by DF Additional demand 40 Additional Water demand 15,000 10,000 5,000 Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December can supply enough water for additional water demand Additional Water Demand 2090 Water Supply potential 2100

41 New Edition, to be published in 2012 Energy from the Desert: Very large scale PV power plant -state of the art and into the future- 1. Introduction & Overview: potential of - Introduction - PV and renewable energy issues - Trends and potential of large scale solar energy utilisation - Environmental aspects of - Socio-economic aspects of 2. Engineering and financial guideline for system - Technical engineering guideline - Financial guideline 3. technical options and applications - into the grid - Storage for - PV Solar - Methane - Other long term options: hydrogen, global energy network 4. Case studies of for selected regions - 100MW PV system in Jordan - in west Africa - in Asia - in Israel - Sahara Solar Breeder plan 5. strategy and recommendations - Possible scenario of project - Implementation strategies for policies - Conclusions and recommendations Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

42 Next step: Task8 Phase-5 Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

43 Road to Very Large Scale PV MW-scale PV system 100MW PV system GW-scale PV plant : already proven : now coming! : within a decade!? Very Large Scale PV (): Promising option for mass-deployment of PV system Basic load of production capacity for PV industry New conventional power plant in remote and desert region, supplying solar electricity Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

44 Road to Very Large Scale PV Major stakeholders are: Renewable energy institutes Energy companies Government institutions Financing institutions Educational institutes Main challenge: to make excellent project proposals to convince local governments, energy companies and financing institutions to be positively involved in realising ambitious projects for the large scale solar electricity Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

45 Key issues Involvement of and strong initiatives by stakeholders Clarification of technical/non-technical barriers Providing suggestions of how to overcome such barriers Understanding differences between developed and developing countries Creating opportunities of providing information & outcomes, and productive communication for filling gaps Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

46 Continuation of Task8 activity Motivation for Task8 continuation In 2030, states/governments all over the world consider solar power plants as a viable option for their energy electrical power supply. Task8 can/should contribute to achieving this vision. Objectives of Task8 continuation: Phase-5 To disseminate Task8 results and communicate with stakeholders To get feedbacks from the fields To contribute to implementing projects, and achieving energy vision for 2030 To discuss a necessity of new Task for PV Power Plants Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

47 Extended workplan Items to be focused vision, strategy and communication -> as Subtask7 (New) technical options for energy network -> as Subtask6 extended Expected results/outcomes As a final conclusion of Task8, Added Values of Suggestions/recommendations of how to overcome hurdles/ barriers, from viewpoints of technical and nontechnical As an option, Proposal of new Task for PV Power Plants Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

48 Extended workplan: Subtask6 Technical Options for Implementing Systems Objectives To clarify requirements for system to integrate with energy network, in the near-term and mid-&longterm Items to be discussed Potential of global energy network Combination with other renewable energy technologies Energy storages & transmission technology Solar hydrogen, methane, etc. Surveying (and CSP) trends Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

49 Extended workplan: Subtask7 Vision, Strategy and Communication Objectives Through active dissemination and communication with stakeholders, to develop vision and strategy To identify and develop enabler to achieve the vision Items to be discussed vision until 2030 Communication with stakeholders Utilities, and governments International organisations such as, IRENA, World Bank, Asia Development Bank, etc. Others, such as, DII, ISES, etc. Comprehensive analysis for specific countries Added Values of Suggestions/ recommendations/ drafts of how to overcome hurdles/ barriers, from viewpoints of technical and non-technical Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

50 Extended workplan: Subtask7 Step 1: Development of the visions for solar power generation Preliminary draft (attractive and ambitious) internally Continuous update with stakeholder consultation Step2: Presentation to stakeholder (Task8 -> Stakeholders) Step3: Feedback from stakeholder (Task8 <- Stakeholders) Identify the barriers and possibilities Stimulate communication among stakeholders Step 4: Identify the actions and responsible actors for realization Technical, financial, social, and institutional, Recommendations for stakeholders Step 5: Continuous Communication IEA Task8 Stakeholders Step 1: Development of the visions for Step 2: Presentation to the SH Step 4: Identify actions Step 3: Feedback from SH Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011 Step 5: Continuous communication

51 Concluding remarks on the road is a promising option for mass-deployment of PV in the world. Desert regions contain abundant and inexhaustible sources of clean energy. Connected areas are power storage and transmission, irrigation, agriculture, water desalination and hydrogen economy. Task8 will focus on implementation of VLS- PV strategies. A proper scenario for large scale utilization of solar energy will be also discussed. Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

52 Thank you for your attention! Courtesy of First Solar, Inc. Courtesy of Q-Cells SE Keiichi Komoto Mizuho Information & Research Institute mizuho-ir.co.jp Overview of Task8 Fukuoka, Japan, 1 December 2011

Energy from the Desert

Trends in large scale PV systems & concept of IEA PVPS Task8 Energy from the Desert Task 8 IEA PVPS Workshop at PVSEC-22 Hangzhou, China, 6 November 2012 Keiichi KOMOTO Operating Agent of IEA PVPS Task8,