Perspectiva global do mercado da carga aérea

Transcription

1 Perspectiva global do mercado da carga aérea October 27 th 2011 Seminário T&N Transporte Aéreo Stéphane Noll IATA Cargo Service Manager Switzerland & Regional Cargo Manager Europe To represent, lead and serve the airline industry

2 Air Cargo Industry profile (I) Cargo is a USD 68 Billion industry, Transporting 35% by value of all goods traded internationally. This can not be achieved by Airlines alone.. Governments, customs authorities, freight forwarders and suppliers are critical partners in the value chain. We must all be focused on serving the needs of our Common customer: The shippers. 2

3 Air Cargo Industry profile (II) Aviation is shell-shocked and fragile. We made some money in 2010 USD 16 Billion.. It was just a 2.9% margin. After a decade in which we lost USD 50 Billion For 2011, assuming an average oil price of USD 96 p.b. profit will plummet 46% to USD 8.6 billion a pathetic 1.4% margin Mid October 2011, Jet Fuel is at USD 129 p.b (30-40% up). Since the second half, the global economy is deteriorating: GDP growth forecast expect to reach at best 3.3% Cargo expect to stagnate Yield is rising thanks to jet fuel cost increase. 3

4 Economic Outlook is deteriorating Economic growth has slowed around the world as a result of policy tightening and also the continuing impact of debt. Japanese growth was also reduced by the impact of the earthquake but their economy is rebounding as reconstruction takes place. In Europe and North America economic growth slowed to a very low pace. Recession is a clear risk in Europe. Elsewhere growth has slowed but should remain relatively strong in the emerging economies. 4

5 Traffic Growth Air freight markets started to shrink by the middle of this year. Year-on-year remained positive for the next 12 months but the level of air freight volume made no further progress. Then from July and on into August FTKs began to shrink in absolute terms. 5

6 Traffic Growth Air freight market weakness has hit most trade lanes. This is not just a developed country problem. In fact the weakest major trade lane is Within Far East, where volumes are down 10% on last year. Overall trade flows show the strongest trade lanes in Latin America and MENA. European exports have been strong. The big slowdown has been in Asian and European exports, and in imports into Europe and the US. 6

7 Demand Environment In the second and third quarters purchasing managers in manufacturing industries from major economies reported a sharp fall in confidence. PMI index is consistent with no further growth in industrial output in the second half of this year. 7

8 Revenue and Yield Underlying cargo rates have been falling over the past year, due to weak market conditions and falling load factors. On the important SE Asia to Europe market cargo rates were 19% down on the previous year in July. Global cargo rates, based on IATA s CASS data, were down around 4%. However, surcharges have been rising sharply over the past year, reflecting the 30-40% increase in jet fuel costs. Including these surcharges suggests that yields were still rising on average up to July. The situation may have deteriorated subsequently. 8

9 Costs Cost pressures shouldn t be a problem given the gloomy economic environment. But they are. Jet fuel prices have not fallen very much at all. They are still 30-40% up on last year. Non-fuel costs look stable. For the past couple of years moves in exchanges rates have been swamped by changes in US$-based oil prices. However, in the past six months the weakening of the against the US$ - as the Eurozone crisis deepened offset the (modest) fall in US$-based fuel prices. - based airlines will have seen no fall in fuel costs as a result. 9

10 Capacity The integrators and all-cargo airlines are taking a greater share of the air freight market. Airlines have also cut the size of the freighter fleet by 43 aircraft over the past 12 months. The reduction of freighter capacity has been more than offset by a rise in the twinaisle fleet by 87 aircraft, with its associated belly capacity. Delivery of new twin aisle capacity fell in 2010 but has risen sharply in 2011 with 25% more (extra 40 aircraft delivered). Next year deliveries are scheduled to be 65% higher than 2010, with new aircraft representing an additional 7% of the fleet. 10

11 Competition In the past year ocean container rates have gone from 80% growth to 20% declines Shipping volume growth is still up but has slowed substantially Shipping lines are being creative: MAERSK team up with a university to build packaging that allows it to transport farmed salmon in reefer containers, extending the shelf life. Test will be next performed on other products such as cut flowers and other perishables. 11

12 Long term challenges The Euro Zone crisis will reinforce medium-term geographical shifts driven by growth of middle incomes 12

13 Long term challenges Source: UN, SRS Analyser Urban Popn mln mln mln > 20 mln October 31 st 2011 = 7 Billion Estimates 2050 = 9.3 Billion and the potential to better connect large cities, particularly in ASPAC and LATAM 13

14 Industry s modernization Update 14 12/31/2012

15 e-freight penetration % Number of EF shipments in 2010 live trade lanes 8% e-freight Penetration on 2010 live trade lanes forecast based on trend analysis 40,000 7% 6% 5% 4.1% 4.8% 4.4% 4.8% 5.3% 5.6% 6.0% 35,000 30,000 25,000 4% 20,000 3% 2% 1% 18,611 16,062 16,469 14,299 14,281 12,097 12,622 15,000 10,000 5,000 0% Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec Penetration % EF AWBs 15

16 e-freight Priorities 2012 Government/ regulatory (e-customs) Airline-FF-GHA interface Electronic Pouch Improve reg./customs support in live locations Lobby for network expansion in new locations (e-customs, treaties) More airlines live in key e-freight hubs Achieve e-awb penetration Review MIP to enhance its impact on data quality Assess technology solutions and market readiness Review customs access to commercial docs in paperless environment 16

17 e-awb % Number of shipments e-awb penetration 10 9 e-awb Industry Status Jul Warsaw trade-lanes MC99/MP4 trade-lanes Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 0 e-awb penetration on MC99/MP4 trade-lanes Number of e-awb shipments on ALL trade-lanes Number of e-awb shipments on MC99/MP4 trade-lanes 17

18 Challenges in achieving 100% e-awb MC99/MP4 countries still asking for paper AWB e.g. USA, India, Egypt, Switzerland, China, UAE, Italy, Greece, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Kuwait, Belgium Lack of structured-approach from some airlines when implementing e-awb Project plan, resources, training, timelines, budget Re-engineering of the acceptance & back-office processes Reluctance from small and medium-size forwarders to adopt e-awb 18

19 Security EU outbound cargo key principles All cargo to be loaded on an aircraft shall be subjected to security controls Looking for assembled explosive and incendiary devices Supply chain security approach: Security controls by: Regulated Agent / Known Consignor /Account Consignor Protection from unauthorized interference from the point of security controls until loading onto the aircraft Security controls and status shall be included in accompanying documentation for each consignment IATA Cargo and Mail Supply Chain Security Forum, Geneva October

20 Security EU outbound cargo key principles Screening of cargo - Visual check, Hand search, X-ray equipment, Metal detectors, EDS, EDD, ETD Verification of the identity and status of RA, KC and AC - EU database for RA and KC - RA to maintain a database for validated AC Protection of cargo - During transportation: tamper-evident packing + load compartment locked, sealed or curtained secured with TIR cords +/or haulier declaration - At airport: In Critical Part considered as protected. Outside CP: physical protection or surveillance IATA Cargo and Mail Supply Chain Security Forum, Geneva October

21 Security EU inbound cargo key principles All cargo carried into the EU shall be subjected to security controls Same supply chain security principles apply at non-eu airports Security measures shall be implemented on the basis of risk assessment: - A green list of countries are exempted from the EU requirements - A red list of countries is defined where high risk cargo requirements apply IATA Cargo and Mail Supply Chain Security Forum, Geneva October

22 ENS, Air transport > Source: MS European Commission Taxation and Customs Union 42 22

23 Security EU inbound cargo - Requirements 1st February All carriers carrying cargo into EU shall be designated as Air Cargo Carrier operating into the EU from a third country airport (ACC3) for each foreign station they are operating from - Details about the security controls implemented by RA, KC, AC shall be included in the ACC3 security programme for each station. - Screening requirements to meet ICAO standards - Additional screening for High Risk Cargo and Mail shall be implemented 1st July Independent validation of cargo operations at each foreign station for ACC3 carrier - Independent validation of RA, KC, AC at each station - ACC3 shall maintain database with RA, KC, AC validated - Screening requirement to meet EU standards IATA Cargo and Mail Supply Chain Security Forum, Geneva October

24 Security US outbound cargo key principles 100% screening on passenger aircraft out of the US (effective August 1, 2010) 100% screening on passenger aircraft into the US yet to be determined Screening requirements for elevated risk cargo transported on all-cargo aircraft Accompanying security statement Assured secured transport IATA Cargo and Mail Supply Chain Security Forum, Geneva October

25 US outbound cargo supply chain requirements Known Shipper Program Vetted by airline and forwarders under SSI requirements Vetted shippers maintained in the TSA known shipper data base Approved Indirect Air Carrier Program Forwarders validated by TSA Certified Cargo Screening Program IATA Cargo and Mail Supply Chain Security Forum, Geneva October

26 Security US inbound cargo supply chain requirements Mandatory 100% screening on cargo destined to the US Date not yet determined for implementation IATA Cargo and Mail Supply Chain Security Forum, Geneva October

27 We have a responsibility for the future generation to modernize our industry. All that is impossible remains to be achieved Jules Verne Obrigado Yours sincerely / Mit Freundlichen Grüssen / Sincères Salutations / Cordiali Saluti, Melhores Cumprimentos Stéphane Noll nolls@iata.org IATA Cargo Manager Switzerland & Regional Cargo Manager Europe 27