NEVADA DAIRIES. 8:00-8:30 Breakfast, Welcome and Introductions. 8:30 9:30 Nevada Dairy and Alfalfa Hay Prices Projections and Market Analysis

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2 IMPACT OF FUTURE GROWTH IN NEVADA DAIRIES 8:00-8:30 Breakfast, Welcome and Introductions 8:30 9:30 Nevada Dairy and Alfalfa Hay Prices Projections and Market Analysis 9:30 10:30 Opportunities for New Dairy Operations 10:30 10:45 Break 10:45 11:45 Dry Milk Processing Plant Opportunities and Overview of Dry Milk Plant

3 Nevada Dairy and Alfalfa Hay Prices: Projections and Market Analysis Impact of Future Growth in Nevada Dairies Fallon, NV March 25, 2013 Michael Helmar University of Nevada, Reno University Center for Economic Development

4 Discussion A plausible environment: FAPRI baseline Nevada dairy outlook WMP global market and US competitiveness

5 FAPRI Baseline Major factors in the outlook Drought abates Global economy, political environment Global ag supply/demand balance Agricultural policies remain in place Energy needs and policies Technology/productivity

6 Non-Developed Countries Drive Global Growth Real GDP, % change World Developed Developing Emerging Sources: IFS, IHS Global Insight forecast

7 Dollar Stabilization Will Not Be Universal Exchange rate index, 2005= World China India Eurozone Japan Sources: IFS, IHS Global Insight forecast

8 Interest Rates Could Spur Investment in Medium Term Interest rates, % month 10-year T-bill Sources: IFS, IHS Global Insight forecast

9 Tight Supplies Cause Crop Prices to Spike This Year $/bushel Corn Wheat Soybeans Sources: USDA, FAPRI

10 Pushing All Feed Costs Higher $/ton, Soymeal US alfalfa NV alfalfa Sources: USDA, FAPRI

11 Feed Costs Pressure Milk Prices All-milk price, $/cwt California Nevada U.S Source: USDA, FAPRI

12 Purchased Feed Costs Hitting Dairy Herds Hard Purchased feed costs, % of dairy operating costs Sources: USDA, UCED

13 Dairy Squeeze Will Ease in 2014 Nevada dairy, $/cwt of milk sold Other operating costs Feed costs Gross value of production Sources: USDA, UCED

14 Different End Use, Different Price Nevada milk price, $/cwt Class I (1) 0 Class IIIa (4a) Difference Source: Nevada Dairy Commission

15 Yield Increases Will Help Meet Plant Needs Milk yield, lb/cow 25,000 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 18, Sources: USDA, UCED

16 Regional, Global Markets Needed to Fuel Expansion Nevada dairy Dairy cows, ths (L) Dairy cows (WMP plant) Milk production, mil. lbs. (R ) Production (WMP plant) 1,250 1, Sources: USDA, UCED

17 Trade Is Opportunity for Dairy Industry U.S. dairy exports, $mil 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Butter Whey & other Cheese Fluid Source: International Trade Administration

18 Oceania Has Dairy Advantage WMP Exports, 1,000 mt, ,250 1, New Zealand EU-27 Argentina Australia US Source: USDA: FAS

19 Dollar Will Remain Competitive Against Most Exporters Exchange rate index, 2005= New Zealand Australia Argentina Eurozone Sources: IFS, IHS Global Insight forecast

20 China Dominates But Other Markets Are Growing WMP Imports, 1,000 mt, China Algeria Indonesia Brazil Source: USDA: FAS

21 Increasing Advantage For Chinese Imports Exchange rate index, 2005= China Indonesia Brazil Algeria Sources: IFS, IHS Global Insight forecast

22 Exchange Rate Effects Dampen Prices in China WMP price per lb $ (L) Yuan (R )

23 Increasing Demand Met by Imports China WMP, 1,000 mt 2,000 1,500 Consumption Imports 1, (f) Source: USDA: FAS

24 Fallon Plant Will Explode U.S. Production, Exports U.S. WMP, 1,000 mt Production Exports Output (f) Output Source: USDA: FAS

25 Milk Is Majority of Production Costs for WMP $/lb WMP equivalent WMP Class IIIa (4a) Difference Source: USDA: AMS

26 Wrap-Up Drought is assumed to abate this year Improved harvests, easing prices Aid expansion in livestock, dairy production Cannot forget long-term factors Global demand, economy, changing policies WMP plant will provide great opportunities for Nevada dairy Short, long-term resource issues (water) Improvement expected in cost environment

27 Questions?

28 3/22/2013 Opportunities (Considerations) for New Dairy Operations in Nevada Allen Young Dairy Extension Specialist Utah State University Nevada Stats 2012 % change 2011 Rank No. dairies 20 0 Milk production (mil lb) Cow numbers (1,000) Cows/dairy 1450 Milk/cow (lb) 22, Milk/person (lb)* 241 *deficient even for fluid and soft products (<300 lb) Introduction Profit = (Income Expenses) * Volume Income Milk (90%) Pounds of fat, protein, OS Expenses Feed (USDA, 2011 = 80%) Replacements Labor IOFC income over feed cost 1

29 3/22/2013 Income What will I be paid for my milk? Will it be enough to reconsider relocation? Markets for culls? Shipping costs? Feed Costs Are forages available? Assuming yes (that s the draw) Can I get the rest of the ration easily (cheaply )? Grain By-products Etc. Example: Assumptions of Feed Cost Milking Cows: 52 lbs DMI (+ shrink?) = $8.50/d 90% milking = $2,792,250 / yr Dry Cows: 25 lbs DMI (+ shrink?) = $5.00/d 10% dry = $182,500 / yr Assumption: 1000 cows = $2,974,750 2

30 3/22/2013 Example: Feed Cost Case for local hay redirected to local dairy USU Dairy high forage ration (best case scenario for a hay seller) 26 lb dry hay /c/d $220 (cost + $20 shipping) Total lactating cow ration cost $8.75 /c/d Reduce hay cost by $30/T ($170) = $8.36 /c/d Value is a savings of $0.39 /c/d 1000 cows = $142,350 /yr (This is a 4.79% saving. How does this compare with income?) Planning Process Many decisions are interrelated Source: Larry Jones, ADSA Annual Meeting, July 2000 Relocating a dairy is much more difficult than expanding a dairy! Source: Larry Jones, ADSA Annual Meeting, July

31 3/22/2013 Prerequisites Financial ability to proceed You will put capital at risk. Mental ability to proceed You will get depressed. Support to proceed You will need family, friends, etc. What are you willing to risk to start this new business? Source: Larry Jones, ADSA Annual Meeting, July 2000 Planning Process Area Selection (Nevada vs other?) Site Selection Source: Larry Jones, ADSA Annual Meeting, July 2000 Area Selection: Family Considerations Are you planning to move to the new location? Will your family be happy in this new location? Are you willing to travel? Source: Larry Jones, ADSA Annual Meeting, July

32 3/22/2013 Area Selection: Government Regulations Local Permits Zoning codes Building permits Milk codes/permits Just because it is farm country, do not assume you can put a farm there! Source: Larry Jones, ADSA Annual Meeting, July 2000 Area Selection: Government Regulations (cont.) CAFO permits Environmental Impact Statements Public Hearings The first dairy may be regarded different than the 5 th or 10 th Area Selection: Community Reaction You cannot realistically be sure until you try to build. It only takes 1 hot-head to delay the project. Sometimes it is the neighboring dairies that can cause the most trouble. Source: Larry Jones, ADSA Annual Meeting, July

33 3/22/2013 Site Selection Location, location, location Where am I going to build? How much can I afford to pay for land? How many acres to support size? 1 acre per cows farmstead alone 1 2 acres per cow for waste management Custom heifer raised vs farm-raised Grow or buy feed? You are assuming they will buy. What to do with manure? Manure Production 1000 cows There s a lot ~ 13,860 gal/day or 5,062,500 gal/yr or ~20,958 Tons ~574 lb N/day or ~209,500 lb N/yr ~235 lb P 2 O 5 /day or ~85,833 lb P 2 O 5 /yr (equals ~1458 acres of corn grain or 1042 acres of corn silage) ~454 lb K 2 O/day or ~166,667 lb K 2 O/yr Kevin H. Elder, ODNR-Division of Soil and Water Conservation General Considerations Water How much? Lactating cow - ~25-30 gal/d (~3 lb / 1 lb milk) Total - ~57 gal/d depending on parlor, heat abatement, etc. Cost? Quality?? Well or city? A 1000-cow dairy can use over 40,000 gal per day. 6

34 3/22/2013 Other Issues What is the soil type and ground water levels? What are the odor issues? What are the temperature extremes? What are the rainfall amounts (you re in a desert)? Source: Larry Jones, ADSA Annual Meeting, July 2000 Management/labor They will be Latinos. Considerations: How many? Are they available? Can you compete with alternate employers (i.e. construction, mining, etc.)? Assumptions: Labor 2400 cows 2 Managers 11 Herdspersons + Admin. 11 Milkers 4 Feeders + Relief $750,000+ / year + 18% fringe + 6% Workman s Comp % FICA Normand St-Pierre, ADSA Annual Mtg, July

35 3/22/2013 Financial Considerations Debt load Realistic operating budget Milk price needed to cash flow CAN THEY PAY THEIR BILLS??? There is no right way to proceed Source: Larry Jones, ADSA Annual Meeting, July 2000 Planning Things will always be more difficult than you expect! Building a new dairy is becoming a environmental challenge Traditional planning issues are minor compared to logistics of building a new dairy Source: Larry Jones, ADSA Annual Meeting, July

36 3/22/2013 Conclusion Do your homework ahead of time. First decide what you want to be on paper. Visit as many new facilities as possible for ideas. Hire someone who has a proven track record to build the dairy. Be realistic in budget development. Be prepared for delays and overruns. Keep Smiling! 9

37 An Overview of Opportunities Looking in the Gaps Nevada risk management education Fallon, Nevada March 25, 2013

38 DFA Facility Overview Planned Operations *Employ 46 Full Time *Operate 24/7 (w/ brief periods of down time for cleaning) *Process 2M lbs of milk per day when fully operational *Export market driven *Only facility like this in the Western Hemisphere *World view of milk differs from US *Emerging economies

39 Known Increased Economic Activity $85M+ Project Greater demand for Goods and Services Will come from Churchill County and region Examples: excavation, concrete, steel tubing, fencing, construction labor, landscaping, fuels, food, accommodations. Wages and Salaries Both during construction and operations. Ramp up in herd sizes (est. at $25M) 10 year $100M impact when in operation.* *State of Nevada ROI analysis for Incentive App.

40 Gaps and Disconnects 1. Forages Corn (whole plant) Small grains Oats Barley Wheat Legumes Grasses

41 Gaps and Disconnects 1. Grains Corn Barley Cottonseed Wheat (whole, bran and midds) Oats Sorghum

42 Gaps and Disconnects

43 Gaps and Disconnects

44 Gaps and Disconnects

45 New Opportunities

46 New Opportunities

47 New Opportunities

48 Outside the Box Thinking 1. New to Nevada Crops 2. New Businesses 1. Retail follows Rooftops 3. Feed Brokers 4. Livestock Suppliers 5. Fuel Sales 6. New or expanded Trucking Co. 7. Local Sale of Goods and Services 8. New Local Customers

49 What does it mean for Nevada?

50 Contact Information Eric D. Grimes, J.D., Executive Director, CEDA Rick Lattin, Management Consultant, CEDA

51 Global Opportunities For the U.S. Dairy Industry Pete Olsen Dairy producer Fallon, Nevada 1

52 Dairy Farmers of America 2

53 DFA Overview A farmer-owned cooperative More than 8,000 member farms 31 manufacturing facilities Diversified manufacturer of dairy products, food components and ingredients and a leader in formulating and packaging shelf-stable dairy products $12 billion in annual sales 3

54 DFA Areas Mountain Area Central Area Northeast Area Mideast Area Western Area Southwest Area Southeast Area 4

55 DFA Member Locations Quartile Farms Average Cows , , , Source: Internal (As of: January 2013) 16

56 Western U.S. Farms Larger farms with more purchased inputs Eastern U.S. Farms Smaller farms with less purchased inputs 6

57 2012 DFA Milk Production California Number of member farms 332 farms Average daily milk supply 383 loads per day Average farm size 864 dairy cows Nevada Number of member farms 20 farms Average daily milk supply 16 loads per day Average farm size 614 dairy cows 7

58 DFA Milk Production Growth California & Nevada Year Milk Supply (loads per day) Annual Percent Change % % % % 5-year Annual Average Growth Rate 3.4% 8

59 Strategy 9

60 Milk Marketing Facilites with Sales by % of Sales Filled Greater than 75% (372) Between 50 and 75% (3) Between 25 and 50% (1) Less than 25% (16) 10

61 Member Services 11

62 DFA Plants 12

63 DFA Consumer Packaged Products 13

64 World-class Customers 14

65 U.S. Dairy Industry 15

66 Average dairy cows per farm Average Dairy Annual Average Cows U.S. Dairy Farm per Size Farm (Dairy cows per farm) Source: USDA 16

67 Farms Number Annual of Numbers US of Dairy U.S. Farms Farms (Thousand Farms) 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Source: USDA 17

68 U.S. Milk Production Shift 10-Year Comparison Milk Production Shift 3-ye a r a ve ra ge ( vs ) Increase greater than 25% (12) Increase from 10 to 25% (5) Increase from 0 to 10% (4) Decrease from 0 to 10% (7) Decrease from 10 to 25% (6) Decrease greater than 25% (14) Source: USDA 18

69 Million pounds Annual U.S. Commercial Disapearance Annual Disappearance of Milk 210, ,000 (Million pounds) Cheese Fluid Other Butter Frozen Products NFDM 170, , , ,000 90,000 70,000 50,000 30,000 10,000 Source: USDA Economic Research Service 19

70 Total milk solids, percent of U.S. production 16% 14% U.S. Dairy Trade Balance U.S. Dairy Trade Balance Total milk solids, percent of U.S. Production Exports Imports 12.8% 13.3% 13.4% 12% 10% 8% 7.6% 8.3% 9.3% 9.8% 11.0% 9.3% 6% 5.2% 5.5% 5.7% 5.1% 4% 2% 0% 4.0% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.5% 4.1% 3.4% 2.9% 2.9% 3.2% Note: 2012 is Jan-Dec Source: USDEC 20

71 Current Market Trends Yogurt explosion 21

72 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Million pounds U.S. Yogurt Production Monthly Yogurt (Million pounds) Yogurt Production Linear (Yogurt Production) CAGR: +4.4% Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service 22

73 Taking a big step: DFA-Fallon, Nevada 23

74 DFA s Global Focus 2011 Exports Mexico 25% Other 24% Europe 3% China 8% South America 1% Africa/Middle East 9% Central America 4% Caribbean 6% Canada 6% Japan 1% Asia/Australia 13% 24

75 DFA Fallon, Nevada 25 Source: Internal

76 Fallon, Nev. DFA Milk Production Near Fallon, Nev. by County Loads per day DFA Milk Production By County (loads per day) More than 50 loads per day (3) 35 to 50 loads per day (1) 15 to 35 loads per day (5) Less than 15 loads per day (16) 26

77 Fallon, Nevada DFA manufacturing facility DFA member farms 27

78 150,000 square feet Daily capacity 2 million pounds (40 tanker loads) Products 250,000 pounds of milk powder a day WMP SMP NFDM Cream Employ local employees Fallon, Nevada Protein manufacturing 28

79 Markets United States Global Mexico Asia Middle East South America 29

80 Thank you 30

81 Fallon Dry Milk Processing Plant: Crop Production Opportunities Jay Davison University of Nevada Cooperative Extension Fallon, NV

82 How Will the Plant Impact Forage Crop Use in Nevada? Full plant capacity is 730,000,000 Lbs. milk/year Nevada milk cows average 22,897 Lbs. milk/year* Currently Nevada has 29,000 milk cows producing 658,000,000 Lbs. milk /year for sale* Plant will require an additional 72,000,000 Lbs. milk/year (3200 milk cows) if all Nevada milk is sold to the plant. *2011 NASS report

83 Forage Needs 32,000 milk cows needed to service the milk plant How many extra cows will be needed and how will that impact current forage production in Nevada? Worst/best case analysis (32,000 cows milk plant + 15,000 cows for existing clients)

84 Producing Milk Cows Forage Needs Scenario # 1 Corn Silage + Alfalfa 50 Lbs./day corn silage + 17 Lbs. alfalfa hay/day Scenario # 2 Alfalfa Hay Only (high use alfalfa) 27 Lbs/day

85 #1 Corn Silage + Alfalfa 32,000 milk cows 32,000 x 50 Lbs./day x 365 days= 584,000,000 Lbs 2000 Lbs/ton = 292,000 tons corn silage needed

86 # 1 Corn Silage + Alfalfa (low use) 32,000 milk cows 32,000 x 17 Lbs./day x 365 days= 198,560,000Lbs 2000 Lbs/ton = 99,280 tons dairy quality alfalfa hay needed

87 # 2 Alfalfa (high use) 32,000 milk cows 32,000 x 27 Lbs./day x 365 days= 315,536,000 Lbs 2000 Lbs/ton = 157,680 tons dairy quality alfalfa needed annually

88 Alfalfa Dry Cows + Replacements Replacements (15 pounds/day) Dry Cows (26 pounds/day) 103,587 tons non-dairy quality alfalfa needed

89 Forage Needs-Milk Plant (Summary) 292,000 tons corn silage needed (~12,000 acres) + 99,280 tons alfalfa (~23,000 acres) (low use) or 157,680 tons alfalfa (~36,000 acres) (high use) + 103,587 tons alfalfa (~ 24,000 acres) (dry + replacements)

90 Milk Plant + Existing Clients Would require approximately 61,000 milk cows to meet both demands (29,000 existing + 32,000 plant). If 50% of existing milk is diverted to milk plant Nevada would need approximately 47,000 milk cows (15,000 existing + 32,000 for plant). Increase previous forage amounts by ~47%

91 Forage Needs of Milk Plant + 50% of Existing Clients 430,000 tons corn silage needed (~17,200 acres) + 146,000 tons alfalfa (~33,000 acres) (low use) or 232,000 tons alfalfa (~53,000 acres) (high use) + 152,000 tons alfalfa (~ 35,000 acres) (dry + replacements)

92 Current Forage Production in Nevada (2011) Alfalfa 85,000 tons in Churchill County 128,000 tons in Pershing County 77,000 tons in Eureka County 928,000 total tons alfalfa produced in northern Nevada in 2010 Corn Silage 200,000 tons in northern Nevada in 2011

93 Corn Silage 200,000 tons produced in 2010 (8000 acres) Need 430,000 tons (17,200 acres) Would need to increase corn silage production ~2x s to meet the needs of the cows supplying the milk plant and existing clients.

94 Alfalfa (Dairy Quality) Need 232,000 tons (high use alfalfa) annually of dairy quality alfalfa for the milk plant + existing 928,000 x 45% dairy quality = 417,600 tons of dairy quality (supreme, premium) produced in 2011 ~422,585 tons alfalfa shipped to California in 2010

95 Alfalfa (dairy quality) Appears that we produce more than adequate supplies of dairy quality alfalfa in Nevada for the milk plant + 50% of existing clientel, But, most of it is shipped to California! Shipping costs to California ~ $50/ton Shipping costs to Fallon ~ $20/ton

96 Alfalfa (dry cows + replacements) Need 152,000 tons annually of dry cow & replacement quality alfalfa for the milk plant 928,000 x 55% non-dairy quality = 510,400 tons of non-dairy quality produced in 2011 More than adequate supplies but compete with horse and beef market.

97 Alfalfa Appears that we produce more than adequate supplies of non-dairy quality alfalfa in Nevada May have price competition with the horse and beef cow industry

98 Conclusions Potential to greatly increase acreage dedicated to corn silage production in the Lahontan and Mason valley s as cow numbers increase Adequate alfalfa supplies, if much of alfalfa currently shipped to California is diverted to western Nevada due to transportation cost savings.