Complex Engineering Systems and the Knowledge Economy

Transcription

1 Complex Engineering Systems and the Knowledge Economy Some Key Grand Challenges Irving Wladawsky-Berger Lisbon, June 5th, 2008

2 Focus on Innovation We will fight our battles not on the low road to commoditization, but on the high road of innovation. - Howard Stringer, Chairman and CEO, Sony Corporation Constant reinvention is the central necessity at GE... We're all just a moment away from commodity hell. - Jeffrey Immelt, Chairman and CEO, GE From this point forward, innovation will be the compass by which the company sets its direction. - Bill Ford, Chairman and CEO, Ford Motor Company Economic competition in the flat world will be more equal and more intense... the most important attribute you can have is creative imagination. - Thomas Friedman 2

3 What Is Innovation?! Significant value created for society or business: -Creates new industries and markets -Spurs productivity and economic growth -Fuels wealth creation and profits -Generates high-value, higher-paying jobs -Raises standard of living! Innovation has to be useful as well as unique! Requires looking beyond today s problems But why is this so important now? 3

4 Why is Innovation such a business imperative? Our environment is constantly changing - Technologies: Internet, IT, bio-informatics,... - Market conditions: competition, commoditization... - Socio-economic: globalization, trade barriers... 4

5 Why is Innovation such a business imperative? Our environment is constantly changing - Technologies: Internet, IT, bio-informatics... - Market conditions: competition, commoditization... - Socio-economic: globalization, trade barriers... Innovation is indispensable to - adapt to changes - go after new opportunities - ward off competitors - preserve leadership position 5

6 Accelerating Advances in Technology Source: Kurzweil 1999 Moravec

7 Accelerating Advances in Technology Driving Costs Steadily Downward Source: Kurzweil 1999 Moravec

8 Digital Technology Revolution IT is to the 21 st Century as Steam Power was to the Industrial Revolution 8

9 The Internet: Industrial Knowledge Economy 9

10 10 Evolution of Digital Systems

11 Evolution of Digital Systems 1960s, 70s and Early 80s Data Center Computers, Storage, Printers, Network,... 11

12 Evolution of Digital Systems 1980s and Early 90s IT infrastructure Data Center Data Center, Business Unit, Departments, WANs, LANs... Computers, Storage, Printers, Network, 12

13 Evolution of Digital Systems Mid 90s to Present End-to-End Enterprise IT Infrastructure, Applications, Data,... IT Infrastructure Data Center Data Center, Business Unit, Department, WANs, LANs... Computers Storage, Printers, Network, 13

14 Evolution of Digital Systems Into the Future... Industry Eco-Systems Global Digital Economy Marketplace Solutions People, Processes, Information End-to-End Enterprise IT Infrastructure, Applications, Data,... IT Infrastructure Data Center Data Center, Business Unit, Department, WANs, LANs... Computers, Storage, Printers, Network, 14

15 Evolution of Marketplace Systems Business Applications Products Technology 15

16 Market Facing Systems Back Office Systems 16

17 People and Services Machines and Products 17

18 Evolution of Emergent Systems: Accelerating Change Time / Complexity 18

19 19 Global, Integrated, Rapidly Changing Digital Economy Systems of Coupled Systems Systemic, Emergent Risks

20 Talent: Critical Requirement for Innovation Leadership The 21st Century Demands Uniquely-Skilled People! Value of education increases during times of change! Challenges and opportunities reside at the intersection of business and technology! Curricula must transform to reflect the realities of today and tomorrow 20

21 Overriding Educational Objective Develop or Enhance the Leadership Skills for Dealing With: Complex Systems Technical Skills Complex Markets Business Skills Complex Organizations People Skills 21

22 21 st Century Talent Engineering Systems Science & Technology, Business & Management, Social & Communication Skills Classic Engineering 22

23 Some Key System Grand Challenges!Cloud Computing!Global Integrated Enterprises!Virtual Worlds 23

24 Cloud Metaphor " Massive Scalability, Quality of Experience 10X - 100X over the next decade 25% - 55% CGR for selected workloads Business and Consumer Services Real-time Information New Enterprise Data Centers Systems, servers and storage People, Devices, Sensors 24

25 25 Business and Consumer Services

26 26 Real-time Information

27 27 Devices, Sensors, etc

28 28 Enterprise Data Centers

29 IT infrastructure growth Spending (US$B) $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 Power and cooling costs Server mgmt and admin costs New server spending Installed Base (M Units) $ Source: IDC, Virtualization 2.0: The Next Phase in Customer Adoption, Doc #204904, Dec 2006

30 IT energy crisis! During the next 5 years, most datacenters will spend as much on energy as they do on hardware Data center watts/sq. ft. Doesn t include energy needed to remove heat can increase overall power requirements by 80% to 120% 30 Source: Gartner, U.S. Data Centers: The Calm Before the Storm, ID #G , September 25, 2007

31 31 The IT Complexity Crisis Classic Complex Data Center

32 32 Data Center Ensemble Approach To IT Simplification

33 Virtualized, Federated Ensembles SOA/Grid Protocols Mainframe service SAP application service Hybrid service Storage backup, archive service Database service WebSphere service x86 service File system service Virtual Client service DMZ appliance service Unix service Consolidation service 33

34 Some Key System Grand Challenges!Cloud Computing!Globally Integrated Enterprises!Virtual Worlds 34

35 Globally Integrated Business and Organizational Systems Employees Suppliers Processes Information People Customers Infrastructure 35

36 1 Business Realities Mainframe PC/NT apps Unix apps 3rd Party Interface AIS Reports Due Dates Stores & Mrkts Smart Plus Broadcast Filter AIS Calendar General Maintenance Vendor Setup Budget Analysis Tool Insertions Orders Invoice App Vendor Maintenance Printer Maintenance Printer PO Print Costing Process Servers (Imaging) S20-Sales Polling E13 E3 Interface Mesa Data NEW Soundscan NPD Group AIG Warranty Guard S01 - Sales Corrections Roadshow I06 - Customer Order Sterling VAN Mailbox (Value) I13- Auto Replenishment Fringe PO Depository Banks UAR - Universal Account Reconciliation I17 Customer Perceived In-Stock I15 Hand Scan Apps I06 Warehouse Management Smart Plus Launcher P16 - Tally Sheet M03 - Millennium 3.0 M02 - Millennium S07 - Cell Phones D01 Post Load Billing S04 - Sales Posting I03 Return to Vendor S06 - Credit App Stock Options L02-Resource Scheduling (Campbell) P15 EES Employee Change Notice Equifax A04 - Cust Refund Chks I12 Entertainment Software E01-EDI S09 - Digital Satellite System L01-Promo Analysis Resumix Cobra ACH Banks - ACH and Pos to Pay Plan Administrators (401K, PCS, Life, Unicare, Solomon Smith Barney) P09 Bonus/HR E02-Employee Purchase Scorecard - HR CTS Prodigy P14 On-line New Hire Entry Intercept V03- Mkt Reactions P09 - P17 Cyborg POS S08 - Vertex Sales Tax S03-Polling P01- Employee Masterfile NPD, SoundScan Frick Co V04-Sign System Spec Source SKU Tracking Spec Source V01-Price Management System AAS CTO2.Bestbuy. com U18 - CTO B01 - Stock Status I05 Inventory Info I04 Home Deliveries I09 Cycle Counts S02 - Layaways I10 Cycle Physical Inventory I11 Price Testing S11 - ISP Tracking L60 MDF Coop I01 PO Receiving V02-Price Marketing Support I02 - Transfers Supplier Compliance Washington, RGIS, Ntl Bus Systems X92-X96 Host to AS400 Communication SKU Performance SKU Selection Tool ASIS Store Monitor Texlon 3.5 U16-Texlon ELT PowerSuite I35 - CEI Rebate Transfer CopyWriter's Workspace Sign System I18 SKU Rep G02 - General Ledger B02 Merchandise Analysis I55 SKU Information NARM EDI Coordinator K02 Customer Repair Tracking I14 Count Corrections I07 Purchase Order I35 Early Warning System Valley Media Arthur Planning Ad Expense Store Scorecard Store Budget Reporting BMP - Bus performance Mngt Merch Mngr Approval Batch Forcasting Ad Measurement AIMS Admin AIMS A05 - AP Journal Entry Tool Kit Ad Launcher Data Warehouse (Interfaces to and from the Data Warehouse are not displayed on this diagram) PSP In-Home Repair Warranty Billing System AIMS Reporting Star Repair C02 - Capital Projects F06 - Fixed Assets Optika SiteSeer US Bank Recon File Connect 3 PDF Transfe Connect 3 Connect 3 Reports Cash Over/ Short S05 - House Charges ICMS Credit Cellular Rollover Cash Receipts/Credit OTHER APPS - PC AP - Collections/Credit TM - Credit Card DB Misc Accounting/Finance Apps - PC/NT COBA (Corp office Budget Assistant) PCBS(Profit Center Budget System) Merchandising Budget INVENTORY CONTROL APPS - PC Code Alarm Debit Receivings Devo Sales Display Inventory In Home Junkouts Merchandise Withdrawal Promo Credits RTV Accrual Shrink AP Research - Inv Cntrl AP Research-Addl Rpts Book to Perpetual Inventory Close Out Reporting Computer Intelligence Data Count Corrections Cross Ref for VCB Dnlds Damage Write Off Debit Receivings DFI Vendor Database Display Inventory Reconcile Display Inventory Reporting INVENTORY CONTROL APPS - PC ACCTS REC APPS - PC DPI/CPI 990COR IC Batching Bad Debt Inventory Adj/Count Correct Beneficial Fees Inventory Control Reports Beneficial Reconcile Inventory Levels JEAXF Inventory Roll JEBFA Merchandise Withdrawal JEBKA Open Receivings JEDVA PI Count Results JESOA PI Time Results from Inv JEVSA Price Protection JEVSF Sales Flash Reporting NSF Shrink Reporting TeleCredit Fees SKU Gross Margin SKU Shrink Level Detail USM VCB Downloads Prepared by Michelle Mills Actual Application Architecture for Consumer Electronics Company 36

37 37 Evolution of Engineering Systems Some Key Lessons

38 Computer Assisted Engineering Systems Strategy Collaboration Design / Simulation Operation / Maintenance Manufacturing 38

39 39 Computer Assisted Business and Organizational Systems Architectures, tools, processes, modeling, simulation, analysis,...

40 Computer Assisted Business and Organizational Systems Strategy Collaboration Business Designs and Architectures Manage Customers Merchandising Store/Channel Operations Supply Chain & Distribution Finance Administration Business Administration Operation / Feedback-loop Transformation View Strategy Tactics Execution Channels Store/Channel Strategy CRM IPT Insights Vendors Customer Sat. Supply/ Demand Promotions Space Mgt. Order Mgt. Vendor Mgt. Customer Accts. Item Mgt. Labor Store Design Inventory Store Mgt. Store Services Customer Product Inventory Directory Directory SCM Distribution Logistics Distribution Ops. Transportation Financial Planning Market Mgt. Finance Treasury Back Office Accounting Planning Alliances LOB Planning Perf. Mgt. MI Process Design Legal/ Reg Procurement Real Estate HR IT Implementation (SOA) 40

41 The Spectrum of Complex Systems Biological Systems Human, Organizational Systems 41 Physically Engineered Systems

42 Some Key System Grand Challenges!Cloud Computing!Globally Integrated Enterprises!Virtual Worlds 42

43 Continuing Web evolution Level of Interaction Web 2.0 Share and Collaborate Visual, Immersive Web Experience, Participate and Co-Create Early Web Access and Find 43 Time

44 Human Machine Interactions Graphical User Interfaces (GUI) Human Graphical View 44

45 Human Machine Interactions Web Browser Human The Web 45

46 46 Highly Visual, Interactive, Immersive Interfaces

47 Human Machine Interactions Highly Visual, Real Time, Immersive Human Virtual/Hybrid World 47

48 Broadband into the Mind Struggling to Survive Information Overload Web IM voic video audio voic 48

49 Early Adopters Marketing & Sales Collaboration and Events Education and Training Process Management, Rehearsal, and Operations 49

50 Early Adopters Education & Training! Connect with experts and teachers from around the world! Train, rehearse, role play, and certify as individuals and teams in virtual world! Simulation of real world environments for more effective learning and retention 50

51 Early Adopters Collaboration & Events! Recreate real world destinations and events to stimulate awareness and sales! Provide a new perspective to immerse spectators in action! Provide new collaboration capabilities to enhance and increase effectiveness! Provide forums to support innovation 51

52 Process Rehearsal, Management, and Operations! Use rehearsals to optimize business and technical processes - especially where equipment is costly/complex and risk is great! Use virtual environment Product Life Cycle management to speed time to market and to reduce cost and errors.! Manage real-world operations more effectively with 3D cues in virtual environment 52

53 Early Adopters Marketing & Sales! Test market with low cost prototype gain feedback! Support complex product sales especially where 3D matters! Provide entertaining sales and brand experiences link virtual and real sales Starfruit 53

54 Knowledge Economy Industrial Economy 54

55 Transition to the Knowledge Economy Deepening Integration of IT into all aspects of Business and Society Business, Societal and Lifestyle Innovation Accelerating Advances in Technology 55

56 56

57 Into the Future... A Stream of Disruptive Innovations Software as a Service Game players Services Sciences Web 2.0 Offshoring SOA ipods Virtual Worlds Petaflop supercomputers GIE Mashups Cloud Computing Flat World 57

58 21 st Century Talent Engineering Systems Science & Technology, Business & Management, Social & Communication Skills Classic Engineering 58

59 Complex Engineering Systems and the Knowledge Economy Some Key Grand Challenges Irving Wladawsky-Berger