ESTIMATING THE CHANGE IN ECOSYSTEM SERVICES DUE TO SHALE GAS EXTRACTION IN PENNSYLVANIA

Transcription

1 ESTIMATING THE CHANGE IN ECOSYSTEM SERVICES DUE TO SHALE GAS EXTRACTION IN PENNSYLVANIA David Murphy, Ph.D. Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Lab Northern Illinois University ACES and Ecosystem Markets 2012 Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

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3 Gas Extraction in the Marcellus Shale

4 Hydraulic Fracturing and Horizontal Drilling Marcellus wells consume between 3 and 6 million gallons of fresh water per well Google images

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7 How is this land-cover change impacting the provision of ecosystem services?

8 Land-Cover Change Model: Convert Well Location Data to Well-Pads Well-Location (up to 15 wells per pad) Well-Pad Location Lots of ArcGIS (120m x 120m = 3.5 ac)

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11 CARBON STORAGE AND SEQUESTRATION: METHODS AND RESULTS

12 Carbon Storage Carbon Storage = above ground carbon + below ground carbon + soil carbon +dead carbon

13 Carbon Pools (Tonnes per Ha) Above Below Ground Ground Soil Dead Developed High Intensity Barren Land Deciduous Forest Evergreen Forest Mixed Forest Grassland/Herbaceous Pasture/Hay Cultivated Crops

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15 Total Loss of Stored Carbon (10 3 Mg) Developed Open Space Developed Low Intensity Barren Land Deciduous Forest Evergreen Forest Mixed Forest Shrub/Scrub Grassland/Herbaceous Pasture/Hay Cul vated Crop

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18 Total Cost = $4 to $120 million

19 RESERVOIR HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION: METHODS AND (INTERMEDIATE) RESULTS

20 Why Hydropower Production Tradeoff between Land-cover change and water consumption Between 3 and 6 million gallons of water are used per well in the marcellus Land-cover change increases water run-off and (potentially) hydropower production

21 Water Yield Inputs: Precip, PoEt, Soil Depth, PAWC, Land Cover, Watershed boundaries, Biophysical table (root depth, EtK) Outputs: total and mean water yield volume per sub-watershed (rasters), Watershed Yield Table (dbf attribute table), Subwatershed Yield Table (dbf attribute table)

22 Water Yield Outputs Total Water Yield (Volume) Mean Water Yield

23 Water Scarcity Inputs: Total and mean water yield per sub-watershed, landcover, Yield tables, water demand table, hydropower calibration table Outputs: Calibrated water yield volume, water consumption volume, watershed and subwatershed scarcity table

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25 Water Scarcity Outputs Calibrated Water Yield (Volume) Water Consumption (Volume)

26 Model Validation

27 Water Consumption 2006 (m 3 ) Water Consumption 2011 (m 3 ) Difference Number of Wells (low consumption) 160 Number of wells (high consumption) 80

28 Valuation Inputs: Calibrated water yield, water consumption, hydropower valuation Outputs: hydropower energy production, hydropower energy value ($)

29 Model Validation Annual Hydropower Production (GWh) Actual 2341 InVEST Model Calibration Ratio (Model / Actual) Hydropower Valuation (Billion $)* Gross Adjusted Annual Ecosystem Service Year Value of Ecosystem Service *Assumed $0.07 per kwh 6 ***Change in hydropower production from gas extraction is insignificant

30 Questions/Comments? Contact Information

31 Appendix A: Points to Wellpad Conversion in ArcGIS

32 Convert X,Y coordinates from well data to point features

33 ** The borders were dissolved so that any overlapping buffers become a single feature (next step) Buffer the wells by 100 meters

34 In this case, the ActiveWell_Buffer feature is a single feature that is converted to multiple features. All buffer features that do not intersect another buffer feature are split into individual features. In this case, 1923 features were created. Convert the dissolved buffers to individual features

35 Join the well data (from the point file) to the buffered features The spatial join allows the user to attach data from the input features to the join features. In this case, the sum of gas production and gas quantity were calculated as well as the average lat/long of the wells.

36 The average lat/long values (of the wells) from the spatial join are used to create wellpad centroids

37 Wellpad centroids are then converted to a raster with 120m resolution cells

38 Wellpad raster is resampled so that the 120m cells match the 30m resolution of the NLCD raster

39 Is Null tool assigns all no data values within the input raster (Resample wellpads) as 1. All other values are given a 0. In this case, all wellpads are 0 and the remaining cells are 1.

40 The output raster from the previous step is reclassified so that all wellpads (formerly classified as 0) are now classified as 24 (matching the appropriate NLCD classification)

41 The output raster from the previous step is reclassified so that all wellpads (formerly classified as 0) are now classified as 24 (matching the appropriate NLCD classification) Pre Wellpad Development Post Wellpad Development

42 Appendix B: Data Sources

43 Data Sources: Water Yield Annual Precipitation o Prism Climate Group (Oregon State University) Potential Evapotranspiration o Oak Ridge National Laboratory Soil Depth and Plant Available Water Content o USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service Land Use o Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium (MRLC) Watersheds and Sub-watersheds o U.S. Geological Survey Biophysical Attributes o Reclassification of the sample biophysical table

44 Carbon Pool Data OID C_above C_below C_soil C_dead LULC LULC_Name Open Water Perrenial Ice/Snow Developed Open Space Developed Low Intensity Developed Medium Intensity Developed High Intensity Barren Land Deciduous Forest Evergreen Forest Mixed Forest Dwarf Shrub Shrub/Scrub Grassland/Herbaceous Sedge/Herbaceous Lichens Moss Pasture/Hay Cultivated Crops Woody Wetland Emergent Herbaceous Wetlands

45 Data Sources: Water Scarcity Water Demand Table o Reclassification of sample data to match NLCD classifications Hydropower Calibration Table o National Inventory of Dams (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)

46 Data Sources: Valuation Hydropower Valuation Table o National Inventory of Dams (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)

47 Appendix C: Full list of inputs and outputs per model for Reservoir Hydropower Production

48 Water Yield Data Needs Annual Precipitation (raster) Potential Evapotranspiration (raster) Outputs Total Water Yield Volume per subwatershed (raster) Soil Depth (raster) Plant Available Water Content (raster) Land Cover (raster) Watershed and Subwatershed boundaries (shapefile/feature class) Biophysical Table (dbf attribute table) Mean Water Yield per sub-watershed (raster) Watershed Yield Table (dbf attribute table) Sub-watershed Yield Table (dbf attribute table)

49 Water Scarcity Data Needs Total Water Yield Volume per sub-watershed (raster) Mean Water Yield per subwatershed (raster) Land Use (raster) Watershed and Sub-watershed boundaries (shapefile/feature class) Watershed Yield Table (dbf attribute table) Sub-watershed Yield Table (dbf attribute table) Water Demand Table (dbf attribute Table) Outputs Calibrated Water Yield Volume (raster) Water Consumption Volume (raster) Watershed Scarcity Table (dbf attribute table) Sub-watershed Scarcity Table (dbf attribute table) Hydropower Calibration Table (dbf attribute table)

50 Hydropower Valuation Data Needs Calibrated Water Yield Volume (raster) Water Consumption Volume (raster) Watershed and Subwatershed boundaries (shapefile/feature class) Watershed Scarcity Table (dbf attribute table) Sub-watershed Scarcity Table (dbf attribute table) Hydropower Valuation Table (dbf attribute table) Outputs Hydropower Energy (sub-watershed energy production) Hydropower Value (subwatershed hydropower value) Watershed Hydropower Value (dbf table) Sub-watershed Hydropower Value (dbf table)