Future projections of water demands for energy

Transcription

1 Future projections of water demands for energy Robin Newmark, Jordan Macknick, Maggie Mann Ground Water Protec.on Council 2010 Annual Forum September 28, 2010 Robin L. Newmark Director, Strategic Energy Analysis Center NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

2 Hot, Flat and Crowded (Thomas Friedman, 2008) Global Warming Water resources increasingly stressed Rise of the middle class all wanting to consume like Americans, with resource implications! Subject of today s discussion Population growth Between now and 2020, there will be another 1 billion people in the world. If Tom gives each of them a 60W light bulb, it will require about 20 new 500-MW coalburning power plants, just so they can turn on their light bulb. That requires about 160 billion gallons/day (nearly 500 acre-ft) of water to produce. If I give them each a glass of water, it will require almost another 200 acre-ft*! * >65 million gallons

3 60000 Water Withdrawal Factors (gal/mwh) Renewables Nuclear Natural Gas Coal gal/mwh Work In Progress 0 Geothermal dry Geothermal wet Biopower Tower Biopower Open Loop Biopower pond PV Wind CSP Trough Wet CSP Tower Wet CSP Trough Dry CSP Tower Dry CSP Trough Hybrid CSP Tower Hybrid CSP SIrling CSP Fresnel Nuclear Tower Nuclear Open Loop Nuclear Pond NG Combined Cycle Tower NG Steam Tower NG Combined Cycle + CCS Tower NG Combined Cycle Open Loop NG Steam Open Loop NG Combined Cycle Pond NG Combined Cycle Dry Cooling NG Steam Inlet Cooling Coal Generic Tower Coal SubcriIcal Tower Coal SupercriIcal Tower Coal PC Tower Coal IGCC Tower Coal PC with CCS Tower Coal IGCC with CCS Tower Coal Generic Open Loop Coal SubcriIcal Open Loop Coal SupercriIcal Open Loop Coal Fluidized Bed Open Loop Coal Generic Pond Coal SubcriIcal Pond Coal SupercriIcal Pond All possible technology cooling system combinaions

4 gal/mwh Water Consump.on Factors (gal/mwh) Renewable Technologies Nuclear Natural Gas Coal Work In Progress US DOE is suppor.ng research in carbon capture Adding CCS (Macknick et al, in prep) 4

5 5

6 356 wind/csp resource regions 134 Power Control Areas (PCA) 17 annual Ime slices 23 2 yr Ime periods

7 Scenarios developed in support of a Programma.c Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) focused on u.lity scale solar energy development 1. Current energy policy (currently formulated state RPS goals, no carbon policy, no na.onal RPS) Available technologies : Conven.onals: Coal (pulverized and IGCC), Gas CC, Gas CT, nuclear Renewables: u.lity PV, CSP, wind (onshore/offshore), bio, geo, hydro Storage: Compressed air energy storage, pumped hydro, baweries Technology costs from Black and Veatch, fuel projec.ons from AEO 2010 Regional resource limita.ons, exclusions based on land considera.ons (resource intensity, slope, protected lands, incompa.ble land use (e.g., wetlands, urban areas)) 1 InformaIon on the ProgrammaIc Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) can be found at h\p:// solareis.anl.gov/eis/index.cfm 7

8 ReEDS op.mizes electric sector system cost every 2 years, using a 20 yr investment period Expands genera.on capacity and transmission capacity to ensure that regional demand and reliability requirements (planning and opera.ng reserves) are met Water consump.on factors for individual technologies are applied to results by PCA region These results, from a single scenario, are illustrative of the potential evolution of the electricity sector. 8

9 Gal/MWh <0 Water intensity in 2006 by PCA >400 Gallons <0 Total water consump.on for the power sector in 2006 by PCA >30 billion 9

10 Water intensity Gal/MWh <0 >400 NaIonally, water intensity is reduced by 33% Water consump.on Total generaion has increased 38%; water consumpion has declined 7% 10 Gallons <0 >30 billion

11 Water intensity change (%) <-100% >50% Water intensity is reduced by 33% na.onally, some areas see increases (especially in the southwest) Water consumption change(%) Water use declines by 7% overall, some areas see increases <-100% >50% 11

12 Electricity Genera.on Wind Solar CSP Solar PV Biopower Geothermal Hydro Coal Gas Co fire Nuclear GeneraIon is dominated by fossil generaion (renewables represent a modest 25% of pordolio) Water Consump.on Renewables responsible for only ~10% of water consumpion Wind Solar CSP Solar PV Biopower Geothermal Hydro Coal Gas Co fire Nuclear

13 % Genera.on % Power sector water consumed <0% <0% >50% >50% Total water consumed Rela5vely low impact, except in NE, NW Gallons <0 >1 Billion 13

14 Wet cooled CSP Percent of Total Genera.on Gallons <0 Hybrid cooled >50 Billion <0% >25% Dry cooled Gallons <0 >50 Billion Gallons <0 14 >50 Billion

15 Wet cooled CSP Percent of Total Genera.on % ConsumpIon <0 >50 <0% >25% Dry cooled CSP using dry cooling can result in a rela8vely minor propor8on of power sector water consump8on overall % ConsumpIon <0 >50 15

16 GWh <0 Significant wind deployment is anicipated >1000 Water requirements are negligible; Opportuni8es exist for significant avoided water use, especially in the midwest 16 % GeneraIon <0% >50%

17 % Increase <0% >25% At a penetra8on of 25%, carbon capture increases na8onal water consump8on by 18% *using current technologies 17

18 Scenario analyses such as these indicate how water demands by the power sector may evolve. Refinements and specific studies can provide addi5onal detail Technology choices make a difference Examples: wet vs. dry cooling for CSP, CCS impacts Regional aspects are important. Cri.cal next steps: linking results to water availability. 18

19 Special Thanks Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Department of Energy (DOE), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), Department of the Interior (DOI), Ma\ Mowers, Donna Heimiller, Nate Blair (NREL) This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE AC36 08 GO28308 with the NaIonal Renewable Energy Laboratory.