Examples of Other Par1cipa1ng Models. January 17, 2012

Transcription

1 Examples of Other Par1cipa1ng Models January 17, 2012

2 The Following Models will be Par1cipa1ng in LAMP Model Ins*tute Country ReMIND Potsdam Ins1tute (PIK) Germany IMAGE Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) The Netherlands WITCH Fondazione Eni Enrico MaTei (FEEM) Italy MESSAGE MERGE Interna1onal Ins1tute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Model for Evalua1ng Regional and Global Effects of GHG Policies Austria USA

3 The ReMIND-MAgPIE Integrated Assessment Model System Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Research Domain III: Sustainable Solutions January 2012 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Research Domain Sustainable Solutions

4 Key Design Characteristics Model: ReMIND (Refined Model of Investment and Technological Development) Model Type: Ramsey-type macro-economic growth model coupled to energy system model, climate box model, (agro-economic land use model MAgPIE) Model team: Gunnar Luderer, Marian Leimbach, Nico Bauer, Tino Aboumahboub, Tabare Arroyo-Curras, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Anastasis Giannousakis, David Klein, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Robert Pietzcker, Franziska Piontek, Jana Schwanitz, Elmar Kriegler Time Step: 5 years Time Frame: 2005 to 2100 Solution Type: Intertemporal Optimization Equilibrium Type: Intertemporal equilibrium of capital, energy, goods markets (Pareto optimum) Underlying Computing Framework: GAMS Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

5 ReMIND model overview Macro Economy Welfare Investments Consumption Energy system costs Energy system Trade Output Fuel costs Investment costs Operation and Maintenance costs Capital Labour Final energy Energy transformations and conversion technologies Learning by doing Labour efficiency Energy efficiency Ressource and potential constraints Emissions Trade Exogenous Data Climate Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research module 5 Leimbach,Bauer, Baumstark, Edenhofer, O. (2009) Trade

6 Regional detail ReMIND regions USA - USA EUR - EU27 JAP - Japan CHN - China IND - India RUS - Russia AFR - Sub-Saharan Africa (excl. Republic of South Africa) MEA - Middle East, North Africa, central Asian countries OAS - Other Asia (mostly South East Asia) LAM - Latin America ROW - Rest of the World (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Republic of South Africa, Rest of Europe). Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

7 Inputs and Outputs Key inputs Demographics: Population by region Economic: Labour & energy productivity Resources: Depletable resources by marginal extraction cost curves (after Rogner; coal, oil, gas, uranium); Renewable resources by grade (wind on & off-shore, solar, geothermal, hydro). Emissions / forcing: CO, NOx, VOC, halocarbons, SF6, OC, BC Technology: see sketch. CCS for coal, gas, biomass-fired power plants, coal & biomass to liquid technologies, H2 production Key outputs Economic: GDP, Consumption, Investment, Shadow prices, Factor shares, Trade flows Energy: see sketch Agriculture (via MAgPIE): Land use pattern, Production costs, Shadow prices Investment in productivity improvements Emissions: CO 2 (by source), CH 4, N 2 O, SO 2 Climate: GHG Concentrations, Radiative Forcing, Temperature, (Ocean ph, Sea level rise) Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

8 Climate Demography Income vs. Food consumption Billion Kcal / Cap / Day kcal = 802 * gdp^( ) [R^2 = 0.66] Income and diet Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 2001) ECHAM GDP / Cap / Year kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values) Socioeconomic inputs CCSR mm Food demand, production costs Crop yields Land & Water constraints LPJ (50x50 km grid) Biophysical inputs Lotze-Campen, Popp et Elmar al. (2008), Kriegler Agricultural Economics Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research MAgPIE a global land use optimisation model spatially explicit (0.5 ), 10 economic regions 30 production activities (13 crops, livestock, irrigation, bioenergy, land conversion) internal feed balances, international trade endogenous land expansion endogenous technological change

9 Climate change (GCM) Demography Income vs. Food consumption Billion Kcal / Cap / Day kcal = 802 * gdp^( ) [R^2 = 0.66] Income and diet Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 2001) ECHAM GDP / Cap / Year kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values) Socioeconomic inputs CCSR mm Food demand, production costs Crop yields Land & Water constraints LPJ (50x50 km grid) Biophysical inputs Land use dynamics 2035 Land use pattern Lotze-Campen et al. (2008), Elmar Kriegler Agricultural Economics Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

10 Latin American Modeling Project: The IMAGE Model February 3,

11 1. The IMAGE modeling Framework Aim: Dynamic and long-term perspectives on the systemic consequences of global change Insights into the impacts of global change A quantitative basis for analysing the relative effectiveness of various policy options addressing global change Components: Socio-Economic System Earth System Policy options 11 February 3, 2012 Latin American Modeling Project: The IMAGE model

12 2. IMAGE Regional Breakdown Four Latin American regions of which two are individual countries: 1. Brazil 2. Rest of South America 3. Mexico 4. Rest of Central America 12 February 3, 2012 Latin American Modeling Project: The IMAGE model

13 3. Reductions in 2020 for different scenarios Non- Annex I - Reductions - (GtCO2eq) Brazil - Reductions - (GtCO2) Two Degrees High Pledges incl. REDD in the Cmarket High Pledges Low Pledges REDD Reductions Other Reductions Sale REDD Reductions Other Reductions Sales emissions reductions from the pledges are too low to reach 2 o C pathways Non-Annex-1 and Brazil are sellers in all cases looked at In Brazil, more than 80% of reduction from REDD depending on the scenario REDD actions are conditional to different mechanisms of financing 13 February 3, 2012 Latin American Modeling Project: The IMAGE model

14 4. LAMP model comparison/research (brainstorm) Mitigation options of Latin America countries? Land Use Energy (BE)CCS Renewables Non-GHG Fossil fuel trade balance (exporting/importing) and energy security Land use, land use change and forestry dynamics in Latin American countries? Can we provide insight on the competition for land due to REDD, biofuel and food production in Latin America? Integration of current climate policy proposals in the energy and land use systems of IAMs Conditions for REDD to play a major role as mitigation option 14 February 3, 2012 Latin American Modeling Project: The IMAGE model

15 LAMP WITCH: model and applications

16 WITCH key features Model name: WITCH Number of Regions: 14 Time Step: 5 yrs Model Type: Optimal growth inter-temporal optimization Features: Endogenous Technical Change. Game theoretic set-up Computing: GAMS. Parallel optimization of regions

17 WITCH regions 2 new regions (India and Indonesia) already separated out Plans to split South America: Brasil, and maybe one more divison.

18 WITCH analysis in the region CARRIED OUT SO FAR Assessment of forestry (both deforestajon and afforestajon) as a mijgajon opjon Specific analysis into REDD using different data sources on REDD availability and costs (IIASA, Wood Hole, Ohio State univ.) and different policy regimes (e.g with and without internajonal banking of permits) INTERESTED IN CARRYING OUT InnovaJon and technical change in clean energy and bio- energy Regional South America carbon trading mechanisms Further analysis on REDD

19 The MESSAGE Model A Brief Overview and Some Recent Applications Peter Kolp, Volker Krey, David McCollum, Yu Nagai, Shonali Pachauri, Shilpa Rao, Keywan Riahi, Manfred Strubegger, Oscar van Vliet International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) LAMP Kick-off Meeting, January 2012, Belo Horizonte, Brazil

20 IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework Feedbacks Scenario Storyline Economic development Demographic change Technological change Policies Feedbacks Global and Regional Scenarios Population Economy Downscaling Tools Spatially explicit and national scenarios Spatially explicit socio-economic drivers National, regional & spatially explicit socio-economic drivers DIMA Forest Management Model Consistency of land-cover changes (spatially explicit maps of agricultural, urban, and forest land) AEZ-BLS Agricultural Modeling Framework CLIMATE and ACIDIFICATION IMPACT MODELS Carbon and biomass price Potential and costs of forest bioenergy and sinks MESSAGE-MACRO Systems Engineering / Macro- Economic Modeling Framework (all GHGs and all sectors) Agricultural bioenergy potentials and costs Drivers for land-use related non-co2 emissions NATIONAL POLICY MODELS (GAINS) Emissions Emissions & Abatement Costs 20/21

21 The MESSAGE Model 11 World Regions Time horizon: in 5/10 year steps Systems engineering model of the global energy system Soft-linked with IIASA Agriculture and Forestry models Includes ~400 individual energy conversion and end-use technologies Inter-temporal and recursive-dynamic (myopic) versions Cost optimization approach Demand response from aggregated macroeconomic model

22 Regional Representation in MESSAGE NAM PAO WEU EEU FSU MEA AFR OECD REFS ALM reaking out Brazil rom Latin America egion planned LAM SAS PAS CPA ASIA 1 NAM North America 5 FSU Former Soviet Union 2 LAM Latin America & The Caribbean 6 MEA Middle East & North Africa 9 SAS South Asia 10 PAS Other Pacific Asia

23 MESSAGE: Reference Energy System Extraction Treatment Primary Sources Conversion Technologies oil well oil Energy Conversion Sector refinery coal mine coal CCT power plant gas well gas sunlight hydrogen plant agroforestry biomass synfuel plant Distribution Technologies truck grid grid/ truck grid/ on site grid/truck Final Energy kerosene electricity gas hydrogen synthetic fuel End-Use Technologies Energy Services air craft, light bulb, furnace, air conditioner, oven, automobile etc.

24 Supply Side Illustration: Low-Carbon Technologies Biomass Biofuels (2 nd generation) Power, CHP, Heat Hydrogen Production Hydro power Wind power (onshore) Solar PV CSP Solar Thermal (heat/water) Geothermal Power, CHP, Heat +CCS Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Coal- and Gas-fired Power Plants + CHP Fossil Synfuel Production Fossil H2 Production Cement Production Nuclear Energy Light Water Reactors Fast Breeder High Temp. Reactor Natural Gas: 3 conv. + 5 unconv. categories in selected scenarios

25 Demand Side Illustration: Transportation Sector and Service Demand Response Prices relative efficiencies coal Shares and growth rates constrained fuel oil IC MESSAGE energy supply structure Gasoline/Diesel IC natural gas IC methanol IC methanol FC ethanol IC ethanol FC demand for transportation Iteration MACRO price response (e.g. correction of AEEI) modal split, transitions and behavioral changes implict in demand projection (scenario-specific) hydrogen FC Scenario Generator electricity "backstop" IC = Internal Combustion Engine FC = Fuel Cell

26 RCP8.5 Forest Cover (2070) Forest land-cover is decreasing However, deforestation is slowing down (increasing affluence - trend is more rapid in other scenarios) Source: Riahi et al., 2011, Climatic Change

27 Popula*on in Billions Alternative Policies to Overcome Solid Fuel Users Sub - Saharan Africa Solid Fuel Users Pacific Asia Solid Fuel Users South Asia Liquid Fuel Users Sub - Saharan Africa Liquid Fuel Users Pacific Asia Liquid Fuel Users South Asia 4,2 3,6 3,0 2,4 1,8 1,2 0,6 0,0 Base 2005 Solid Fuel Users Energy Poverty No new policies % Fuel Subsidy 2030 Source: Riahi et al., forthcoming, Global Energy Assessment, Methodology: Ekholm et al., 2010, Energy Policy Access to Modern Fuels only % Fuel Subsidy 2030

28 An integrated approach to energy sustainability: Synergies of Multiple Objectives 1.2% Fulfillment of Objective Stringent Total Global Policy Costs ( ) 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% Intermediate Weak Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point All objectives fulfilled at Stringent level At least one objective fulfilled at Intermediate level 0.2% 0.0% Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives Source: McCollum et al., 2011, Nature Climate Change At least one objective fulfilled at Weak level

29 MERGE & LAMP A Few Thoughts Steven Rose srose@epri.com LAMP 1 st Meeting, Brazil January 17-19, 2012

30 MERGE Like other IAMs w/ coupled climate-economic systems Intertemporally optimizing Top-down general equilibrium representation of the economy, with nested production structure Bottom-up process representation of energy technologies Flexible regional aggregation (w/ four Central & South American regions Brazil, Mexico, rest of middle-income, rest of low-income) 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 30

31 Interesting areas of study for LAMP Potential near-term development pathways Current energy systems and transformation constraints International climate policy interactions with development objectives 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 31

32 Thank You!