Professor. Dr. Pavel Kabat Director & CEO IIASA

Transcription

1 Regional Development in a Global Context: Science for Sustainability Professor. Dr. Pavel Kabat Director & CEO IIASA Professor Earth System Science Wageningen University, NL Director and Chair, the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences Institute for Integrated Research on Wadden Sea Region

2 The early 1970s Sources: nuclearweaponarchive.org, The Guardian

3 Sources: US Dept of Interior, IIASA

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6 A Global Research Institute established as a scientific bridge between East and West after Cold War ended focused on multiple dimensions of global change now embarked on the new research strategy for the next decade

7 20 National Member Organizations International, independent, interdisciplinary Research on major global problems Solution oriented, integrated systems analysis

8 INTERNATIONAL ~ IIASA Alumni's and associated researchers around the world IIASA collaborates with almost 300 institutions from nearly 40 countries

9 Examples of Early Research

10 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Energy and Climate Change Highly Published

11 MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES

12 INEXTRICABLY LINKED Energy & Climate Change Food & Water Poverty & Equity

13 ADVANCED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS: PAST SUCCESSES Dynamic Systems Multi-criteria decision analysis Adaptive dynamics theory Game theory Agent-based modeling Stochastic optimization NEW RESEARCH Advances in Modeling Dynamic Systems Extreme events, Systemic Risks and Robust Solutions Integrated Modeling and Decision Support Advanced Systems Analysis Forum

14 IIASA S APPROACH Integrated Interdisciplinary International Independent Solution-oriented Long term Trade offs Systems Analysis System Thinking

15 Systems Thinking in Regional Development Context: putting a puzzle together??? Pieces of the puzzle: science disciplines, sectors and cross-sectoral approaches, trans-regional and trans-boundary institutions, regional to global teleconnections.

16 Some examples and benefits of integrated, system approaches

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18 2030 Energy Goals Universal Access to Modern Energy Double Energy Efficiency Improvement Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

19 Mapping Energy Access Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density

20 EJ Global Primary Energy Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Kommerzielle Luftfahrt Nuklearenergie Mikrochip Dampfmaschine Elektrischer Motor Vakuumröhre Ottomotor Fernseher Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass

21 EJ Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Einsparungen Savings Andere Other renewables E Nuklear Nuclear Gas Öl Oil Kohle Coal Biomasse Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~55% renewables by Nuclear phase-out (policy) Oil phase-out (necessary) Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, 2012

22 EJ Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 Limited Intermittent REN Oil phase-out (necessary) Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, 2012

23 EJ EJ Global Primary Energy Europe Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass ~30% renewables by Source: Riahi et al, 2012

24 Final Energy Transformations 100% 80% 60% Fossils (Gas, Oil & Coal) Other Low Carbon (Nuclear, Fossil-CCS) Ot 40% Fo 20% 0% Renewables (Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Bioenergy) RE

25 Total Global Policy Costs ( ) Synergies of Multiple Energy Objectives ES ES ES ES CC Climate Change PH Pollution & Health ES Energy Security 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% CC PH CC PH CC Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point PH CC PH All objectives fulfilled at Stringent level Integrated Climate-Pollution- Security Policies Single minded approaches for multiple challenges 0.6% 0.4% At least one objective fulfilled at Intermediate level 0.2% 0.0% Only Energy Security Only Pollution Only Climate Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives Policy Prioritization Framework All Three Objectives At least one objective fulfilled at Weak level

26 GAINS identified 16 key air quality measures that, together with CO 2 mitigation, increase chances to stay below the 2º target Global temperature Reference scenario IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 CO 2 measures IEA 450 ppm scenario 2009 Near-term measures IIASA set of 16 measures for CH 4 and black carbon Source: Shindell et al., Science (2012) 335 no. 6065; p CO 2 + Near-term measures These 16 measures are win (for air quality), win (for near-term climate change) win (for economic development).

27 Total Global Policy Costs ( ) Energy Policy Costs (% GDP) 1.2% 1.0% Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012

28 Towards a more Sustainable Future Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake-holders work together. Energy transformation will bring multiple co-benefits for health, security, climate change Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies

29 Global Energy Assessment

30 Climate proofing the agricultural sector (re)design of existing production systems Dairy farming/arable farming/greenhouses New production systems Biomass production (biobased economy) Saline/stress tolerant crops Changes in land use Exit from agriculture (Nature/Recreation) Regional combinations of land use Multifunctional land use (agriculture, recreation, nature water retention and storage) Linking (farming) systems/closing C & N cycles Processing & transport Increase energy use efficiencies

31 Land use planning: adaptation & mitigation

32 GHG balance in peat meadow area

33 Carbon payments for forest conservation would dramatically reduce species extinctions Changes in forest cover over the twenty-first century, within presumed REDD-eligible regions Between 10 and 25% of 4,514 forest-dependent mammal and amphibian species would become extinct

34 Overall objective: Assess the Alps renewable energy potential (biomass, solar, wind and hydro) and evaluate trade-offs with other ecosystem services. IIASA s contribution (Ecosystems Services & Management Program): Apply a global forestry model (G4M) and a model for optimal siting and scaling of bioenergy plants (BeWhere) in a geographically explicit manner, to evaluate the sustainable potential for renewable energy production in the Alpine Space Assess and identify trade-offs for renewable energy production under protection of biodiversity hot spots and other key ecosystem services, e.g. carbon sequestration. Source: Svadlenak-Gomez et al. (2013). Valuing Alpine ecosystems: the recharge.green project will help decision-makers to reconcile renewable energy production and biodiversity conservation in the Alps; eco.mont Journal on Protected Mountain Areas Research 05/2013; DOI: /ecomont-5-1s59 LGB.

35 Ecosystem trade-offs of forest areas G4M estimates the impact of forestry activities on carbon sequestration and supply of biomass in the Alps (258,000 km2 total area, 115,000 km2 forest). Forests managed to maximize two ecosystem values through changing the rotation period: S1: Maximization of carbon stock in forests. S2: Maximization of biomass production. S1: Carbon sequestration S2: Biomass production Harvest potential (Mt C /year): Carbon stock (Mt C): 1, Source: G4M 1: Carbon sequestration scenario (stock) tc/ha 2: Biomass production scenario (stock) tc/ha

36 Economic bioenergy potential BeWhere estimates the optimal allocation of bioenergy production plants and associated harvesting intensity. Bioenergy is competing with other energy production types (i.e. costs of fossil fuels). Economic supply: 14 TWh (heat & electricity) met by both scenarios. Significant local difference of harvesting intensity. tc/ha tc/ha S1: Carbon sequestration scenario (increment) S2: Biomass production scenario (increment) 1,000 m 3 1,000 m 3 Harvesting intensity/cell (1,000 m 3 / yr) Total harvested amount in S1: (1,000 m 3 / yr) Total harvested amount in S2: (1,000 m 3 / yr) , ,820 1, ,851 1, ,290 Source: BeWhere

37 The Alps region as a system under change How does the future look like? How can we safeguard the natural and ecosystem values of the Alps region? Is the sustainable (economic) development of the Alps region possible without compromising on the values of nature and biodiversity?

38 What is Integrated Research? it shows a combination of two or more disciplines with the emphasis on feedbacks and interactions.. it focuses attention on the interactions between space and time scales and on the accumulation of processes, interventions and impacts at interacting scales it is based on the co-production of knowledge in which knowledge demands are generated, knowledge is used and generated in close interaction between scientists, practitioners and policymakers (engaged scholarship) Texel, 4 September

39 Systems Research Approach to the Future of the Alps? A proposal... 3 generic knowledge programmes 3 integrated research programmes 2 conditional themes Hamburg, 4 December 2009

40 Matrix 1 ALPINE CLIMATE 2 ALPS NATURE 3 ALPS WELL-BEING A PAST ALPS INTER- DISCIPLINARY B ALPS MONITOR C ALPS FUTURE CONNECTION IN SPACE AND TIME SCALES EFFECTIVE INTERACTIVE KNOWLEDGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND a ALPS EXPERT b WORLD ALPS Hamburg, 4 December 2009

41 1 ALPINE CLIMATE 2 ALPINE NATURE 3 ALPINE WELL-BEING A PAST ALPS B ALPS MONITOR Aim: reconstruction of the climatological, geological, ecological, economic and sociocultural past of the Alps Region. C ALPS FUTURE a ALPS EXPERT b WORLD ALPS Hamburg, 4 December 2009

42 1 ALPINE CLIMATE 2 ALPS NATURE 3 ALPS WELL-BEING A PAST ALPS B ALPS MONITOR C ALPS FUTURE Aim: monitoring of the natural and social dynamics of the Alps system. Focus on the systematic collection and supply of quantitative data. a ALPS EXPERT b WORLD ALPS Hamburg, 4 December 2009

43 1 ALPS CLIMATE 2 ALPS NATURE 3 ALPS WELL-BEING A PAST ALPS B ALPS MONITOR C ALPS FUTURE Aim: understand and predict the development of the Alps system. Develop conceivable scenarios, based on multiple trend analyses and quantitative process models. Period: a ALPS EXPERT b WORLD ALPS Hamburg, 4 December 2009

44 1 ALPINE CLIMATE 2 ALPS NATURE 3 ALPS WELL-BEING A PAST ALPS B ALPS MONITOR Aims: co-creation of knowledge knowledge transfer C ALPS FUTURE a ALPS EXPERT training a new generation of Alps experts b WORLD ALPS Hamburg, 4 December 2009

45 1 ALPINE CLIMATE 2 ALPS NATURE 3 ALPS WELL-BEING A PAST ALPS B ALPS MONITOR Aims: to integrate knowledge of the Austrian, Swiss, German, French, parts of the Alps Region; C ALPS FUTURE a ALPS EXPERT b WORLD ALPS to make a systematic comparison of the Alps Region with similar regional (alpine) systems elsewhere, to export sustainable system solutions Hamburg, 4 December 2009

46 1 ALPINE CLIMATE 2 ALPS NATURE 3 ALPS WELL-BEING A PAST ALPS B ALPS MONITOR C ALPS FUTURE Safety: how can the safety of the Alpine Region and its population be guaranteed in the long-term, also taking into account the possible harmful effects of climate change? a ALPS EXPERT b WORLD ALPS Climate-neutral: how can a sustainable energy balance for the region be realised? Hamburg, 4 December 2009

47 1 ALPINE CLIMATE 2 ALPINE NATURE 3 ALPINE WELL-BEING A PAST ALPS B ALPS MONITOR C ALPS FUTURE a ALPS EXPERT b WORLD ALPS Protection: how can the natural values be safeguarded? Development: which regional developments are possible within the constraints? Adaptation: how will the natural environment adapt to climate change and changes in the global economy? Hamburg, 4 December 2009

48 1 ALPINE CLIMATE 2 ALPS NATURE 3 ALPS WELL-BEING A PAST ALPS B ALPS MONITOR Sustainable economy: how can work and income for the residents be guaranteed in a sustainable manner? C ALPS FUTURE a ALPS EXPERT b WORLD ALPS Liveable community and quality landscape: how can social cohesion, a recognisable manmade landscape and living heritage be safeguarded? Hamburg, 4 December 2009

49 Ambition:... The ALPS region to develop into an incubator for widely applicable integrated knowledge of sustainable development of a mountain area, in which natural values are a key element and form the foundations on which to base the local and regional economy.... The region is becoming a meeting place for scientists, administrators, policymakers and management bodies. Together, they are seeking sustainable and innovative solutions based on interdisciplinary knowledge.... By 2025, the Alps Region will be the best monitored and best understood mountainous system in the world

50 ..Thank you and welcome at IIASA...!