TWI2050: Transformation toward Sustainable Future

Transcription

1 Global Research Initiatives in Support of the 2030 Development Agenda and the Paris Agreement (IIASA) TWI2050: Transformation toward Sustainable Future Nebojsa Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology

2 Cambridge University Press 2017 #2

3 Cambridge University Press 2017 #3

4 2030 GEA Goals and Targets Universal Access to Modern Energy Double Energy Efficiency Improvement Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable UN General Assembly resolution 65/ #4

5 Global Primary Energy Historical Evolution EJ Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Kommerzielle Luftfahrt Nuklearenergie Mikrochip Dampfmaschine Elektrischer Motor Vakuumröhre Ottomotor Fernseher Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass #5

6 Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 EJ Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, #6

7 Global Water Withdrawals A Transformational Pathway Gm Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Fricko et al, #7

8 Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies 1.2% Total Global Policy Costs ( ) 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, #8

9 2017 #9

10 TWI2050 Annual Meeting IIASA, 3-5 April #10

11 Interplay and the SDGs Fundamentally, there are two agendas embedded in the SDGs We can call them (i) the human security agenda and (ii) the planetary boundaries agenda The challenge is to make these agendas synergistic rather than competitive Consider the case of Africa and the issues of demographic trends and food security under the impacts of climate change Oran Young, Program on Governance for Sustainable Development Bren School, UCSB

12 The World in 2050 (TWI2050) Transformation Diffusion Doing More with Less within Planetary Boundaries Growing number of actors of change: green businesses cities civil society science IGOs (UN etc.) Legitimacy of BAU eroding 2030: Achievement of SDGs Vision: Sustainable Future New values and norms 2050: Sustainability transformation Incremental Radical Transformational Source: After WBGU, #12

13 The World in 2050 (TWI2050) Transformation Diffusion Doing More with Less within Planetary Boundaries Legitimacy of BAU eroding 2050: Sustainability transformation 2030: Achievement of SDGs Vision: Sustainable Future New values and norms Incremental Radical Transformational Source: After WBGU, #13

14 The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com) Transformation Diffusion Doing More with Less within Planetary Boundaries Governance Economic Social Demographic Knowledge Values Technology Vision: Sustainable Future Source: After Paul Raskin, #14

15 Disruptive Change Darum geht zu allen Völkern [ ] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe. Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt. Source: Campanale, Carobntracker 2017 #1515

16 Independent group of 15 scientists to draft the quadrennial GSDR (since Jan 2017) Source: Alex Röhrl, UN DESA 2017 #16

17 10 Member Group in support of the Technology Facilitation Mechanism Source: Alex Röhrl, UN DESA

18 THANK YOU