Overview of Integrated Assessment Research at IIASA

Transcription

1 Overview of Integrated Assessment Research at IIASA Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General and Deputy CEO International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA Seminar: Exploring the Future Collaboration with the Japanese Research Community, Elizabeth Rose Conference Hall, United Nations University, Tokyo 13 October 2014

2 Japan and IIASA Highlights Knowledge and research are a human resource that can be created and as they are cumulative need to be nurtured; Japan and IIASA joint activities and collaboration evolved and deepened over the past four decades; Leading scientists and activities have emerged in integrated assessment and systems analysis involving worldwide knowledge networks. Nakicenovic 2014 #2

3 IIASA Research Strategy Food & Water Energy & Climate Change Poverty & Equity Nakicenovic 2014 #3

4 IIASA Research Strategy Food & Water Energy & Climate Change Poverty & Equity Nakicenovic 2014 #4

5 Energy and Climate Change: Building on Past Successes Nakicenovic 2014 #5

6 Aspen, 2006

7 International IAM Consortium Facilitate the coordination of scenario development efforts International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) Stanford University National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) - Asbjorn Aaheim CICERO University of Oslo - Keigo Akimoto Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) - Eduardo Calvo WG III Bureau IPCC - Patrick Criqui Institut d'economie et de Politique de l'energie, IEPE-CNRS - Francisco de la Chesnaye US Environmental Protection Agency - Jae Edmonds Pacific Northwest National Laboratory - Allen Fawcett US Environmental Protection Agency - Brian Fischer CRA International - Donald Hanson Argonne National Laboratory - Jean-Charles Hourcade CIRED/CNRS/EHESS - María E. Ibarrarán Universidad de las Américas, Puebla - Kejun Jiang Energy Research Institute - Mikiko Kainuma National Institute for Environment Studies (NIES) - Claudia Kemfert DIW Berlin - Atsushi Kurosawa The Institute of Applied Energy - Emilio Lèbre La Rovere Programa de Planejamento Energético - PPE/COPPE/UFRJ - Bruce McCarl Texas A&M University - Nebojsa Nakicenovic International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) - Hom Pant Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) - Keywan Riahi International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) - Richard Richels Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) - Thomas Rutherford Economist - Ronald Sands Joint Global Change Research Institute - Priyadarshi Shukla Indian Institute of Management - Steve Smith Pacific Northwest National Laboratory - Richard Tol University of Hamburg, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) - Jose Eddy Torres Energy-Environment-Economy Modeling and Analysis Group Universidad de Los Andes / Universidad Nacional de Colombia - Detlef van Vuuren The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) - Marc Vielle CEA-LERNA - Virginia Vilariño Business Council for Sustainable Development Argentina - John Weyant Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), Stanford University Nebojsa Nakicenovic #7 2006

8 Discussion on RCP Process Update and Plans At IAMC Meeting, Tsukuba, Japan September 15&16, 2009 Video message by Pachauri

9 Integrated Analysis for IPCC AR5 Refined after community review RCPs (Complete) CMIP5 (Complete) Under way

10 INTEGRATED ANALYSIS FOR IPCC 5AR Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Cambridge University Press

11 GEA, 2012

12 RESEARCH INTO POLICY (Example) : Global Energy Assessment involving 500 experts around the world 2009 to date: GEA provides critical input to Un Secretary-General s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative including defining the aspirational yet feasible objectives: 1. Ensure universal access to modern energy services 2. Double the global rate of improvements in energy efficiency 3. Double the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix 12

13 The Key Energy Challenges Access Climate Change Energy Security Air Pollution Health Impacts

14 Two Faces of the Athropocene Nakicenovic >3 billion without access to clean cooking 1.5 billion without access to electricity 2014 #14

15 Internet Router Density (sample of 564,521 routers) Data: Mark Crovella, Boston University, 2007 >3 billion without access to clean cooking 1.5 billion without access to electricity

16 Global Primary Energy EJ Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Kommerzielle Luftfahrt Nuklearenergie Mikrochip Dampfmaschine Elektrischer Motor Vakuumröhre Ottomotor Fernseher Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Nakicenovic Biomass 2014 #16

17 Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 EJ Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Nakicenovic Source: Riahi et al, 2012 Biomass 2014 #17

18 Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN EJ Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Oil Coal 0 Biomass Nakicenovic Source: Riahi et al, #18

19 Global Water Withdrawals lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN Gm Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Oil Coal 0 Biomass Nakicenovic Source: Fricko et al, #19

20 But first, a reminder about technology Source: After Granger Morgan,

21 Energy Policy Costs (% GDP) 1.2% Total Global Policy Costs ( ) 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point 0.2% 0.0% Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives Nakicenovic Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, #21

22 Challenges of Integrated Modeling IAMs appropriate for incremental change Disruptive change is basically exogenous Evolutionary and emergent features lacking Limited treatments of deep uncertainties Heterogeneity of behaviors is a challenge Issues of scales a challenge (downscaling) Co-benefits difficult to capture in models Chronic lack of data in the digital world Nakicenovic 2014 #22

23 THANK YOU