Unconventional Resources: Turning Conventional Paradigms Upside Down

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Unconventional Resources: Turning Conventional Paradigms Upside Down"

Joleen Houston
5 years ago
Views:

1 Unconventional Resources: Turning Conventional Paradigms Upside Down Richard Richard Chuchla Chuchla Senior Senior Corporate Corporate Strategic Strategic Advisor Advisor Exxon Exxon Mobil Mobil Corporation Corporation

2 Outline Definitions Historical Context and Importance What s s Unconventional About Unconventional Resources? Challenges Pace of Discovery, Production and Innovation Outlook

3 Definitions un con con ven ven tion tion al [uhn uhn-kuh n-ven-sh shuh-nl] : not conforming to existing rule un con con ven ven tion tion al re source [uhn uhn-kuh n-ven-sh shuh-nl ree-sawrs, -sohrs, -zawrs, -zohrs, ri-sawrs, -sohrs, - zawrs, -zohrs]: an oil and gas resource not bound by or conforming to conventional geologic rule or precedent Stubborn rocks (low permeability) - e.g. tight gas (TG), shale gas (SG) - require physical stimulation (fracturing) Stubborn fluids fluids (high viscosity to solid kerogen) - e.g. heavy oil (HO), oil shale (OS) - require thermal stimulation Technology-leveraged leveraged resources Stimulation to achieve commercial production

4 Context / Discovery History 8 7 US Dominated Exploration Global Expansion Post WWII Growth CDP Seismic Single Fold Seismic Seeps, Surface Exploration OPEC/ Globalization Nationalization / Mergers Deep Water 3D Seismic Oil-Equivalent Barrels (Billion)* DISCOVERED OIL Increased Recovery Produced Oil Produced Gas DISCOVERED GAS OIL DEMAND GAS DEMAND New Discoveries

5 Context / Global Wildcats and Discoveries >25MBOE s Peak Discoveries 8 s Decline 9- s Improved Efficiency 6 New-Field Wildcats/year Discoveries > 25 MOEB Wildcats Discoveries >25 MOEB/year Data courtesy of IHS, 26

6 Context / Energy Demand to 23 Economic growth will drive increasing demand for energy Oil and gas are indispensable Unconventional oil and gas will be important contributors to our energy future (29)

7 ExxonMobil Resource Base resource distribution resource type BOEB 8 72 Russia / Caspian acid / sour gas conventional Africa Europe Middle East deepwater 4 Asia Pacific arctic YE '8 Americas unconventional gas LNG heavy oil

Emergence of Unconventional Gas Annual Natural Gas Production (Bcf) Natural Gas (TCF) 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, (EIA, NPC) 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Barnett Shale: USGS USGS (1996): ~3 TCF ARI (26): 39 TCF

8 Emergence of Unconventional Gas Annual Natural Gas Production (Bcf) Natural Gas (TCF) 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, (EIA, NPC) Barnett Shale: USGS USGS (1996): ~3 TCF ARI (26): 39 TCF Mobil Hubbert USGS NRC USGS Exxon Peak Gas?! Hefner Shell Total Natural Conventional Gas Unconventional Gas USGS U. S. Gas RUR Trend line Exxon Hubbert Nehring Shell Sohio AAPG GRI DOE DOI Year NRC Enron Enron GRI GRI EIA NPC EIA Enron Smith & Lidsky EIA GRI EIA DOI 1 years of production NPC NPC 9 +DOE proved * (Several estimates for lower 48 only) Estimates adjusted for production since date of estimate (Updated from Fisher, 22)

9 Exxon Mobil Production Outlook USGS 75 Trend line Exxon 5 U. S. Gas RUR Hubbert Nehring GRI AAPG Enron EIA NRC NPC EIA GRI Enron DOE Enron Shale gas, tight gas and CBM Shell Sohio DOI Smith & Lidsky GRI EIA since date of estimate U. S. Annual Gas Production 25 Conventional GRI EIA Billion Cubic Feet per Day DOI NPC EIA* XOM NPC CERA* Gas

10 Unconventional Gas / Impact on U. S. LNG Business Proposed Additions GCFD US Historic LNG Imports Pre Existing Capacity 4Q7 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 4Q8 1Q9 2Q9 3Q9 4Q9 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 Data Source: Wood MacKenzie

11 ) - Sego - Castlegate Corcoran Mancos Shale Green River Fm. A Conventional Perspective Mancos Shale MESAVERDE Iles Fm. Lles Fm. Rollins Williams Fork Fork Fm. Fm. Braided Stream Proximal Ohio Creek Ohio Creek Wasatch Fm. Wasatch Fm. Wasatch G 1 miles Green River Fm. 1 miles Uinta Fm..

12 Geologic Paradigms Turned Upside Down REGIONAL W-E CROSS SECTION SULPHUR CREEK FIELD PICEANCE CREEK FIELD F27X-8G Woodward-1 Uinta Fm.. Uinta Fm. Green River Fm. Green River Fm. Wasatch G Wasatch SS Wasatch Fm. Wasatch Fm. -2, Creek Ohio Creek -4, -6, -8, Corcoran Mancos Shale - Sego - Castlegate MESAVERDE MESAVERDE Williams Fork Fork Fm. Fm. Williams Fork Fm. Iles Fm. Proximal Braided Stream -1, 1 miles

13 Unconventional Gas Challenges / Permeability k (md) Conventional Reservoirs Concrete Sidewalk Tight Gas Sand (Piceance) Shale Rock

14 Unconventional Gas Challenges / Porosity Conventional Gas Pore Space 1 microns Tight Gas Pore Space 2 microns Shale Gas Pore Space 5 nano meters Diameter of average human hair is about 1 microns

15 Unconventional Gas Challenges / Production 1 mile Drainage area Frac 1.5 mile Well Pad Horizontal wellbore Approx foot deep separation between two reservoirs

Unconventional Gas Challenges / Level of Investment www.bing.com Marcellus Shale Industry acreage position: >7.5M acres Average well cost: $4.

16 Unconventional Gas Challenges / Level of Investment Marcellus Shale Industry acreage position: >7.5M acres Average well cost: $4.M Average EUR: 4 GCF/well Average well spacing: 8 acres Assume half of the industry acreage might be productive ~5, well locations ~19 TCF of gas ultimately produced $19 billion (for drilling and completions only)

Challenging Unconventional Dogma / Commercial Models MCFD 4 3 2 1 1997 Production History 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26

- Need to sell CBM to local gas markets + Local gas markets are saturated - Gas is too dry, ramp-up too long for LNG

17 Challenging Unconventional Dogma / Commercial Models MCFD Production History Old Paradigm - Australia gas synonymous with the NWS or Gippsland - Eastern Australia CBM is modestsized resource - Need to sell CBM to local gas markets + Local gas markets are saturated - Gas is too dry, ramp-up too long for LNG feedstock New Paradigm - Eastern Australia CBM is a very large resource - Look for markets outside Australia +Export via LNG

18 Emergence of Unconventional Gas / Barnett Shale Daily Production Rate (KCFGD) 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, IP mcfgd Barnett Shale Historical Daily Production (as of 2/29) Cumulative Production: 5.1 TCF Daily Production: 4.9 GCFPD Horizontal Wells / IP Gas vs Time 1,, 2 3/15/ 7/28/1 12/1/2 4/23/4 9/5/5 TIME Time Discovery well (vertical, CO 2,nitrogen foam frac) Massive hydraulic fracs First horizontal well; first 3D seismic First light sand (slickwater) frac Refrac Simul-fracs (Data Source: IHS, 29)

19 Emergence of Unconventional Gas / Fayetteville Shale Daily Production Rates (KCFGD 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Fayetteville Shale Daily Production Cumulative Production: 28 GCF Daily Production: 843 MMCFPD Time (Data Source: IHS, 29)

20 Emergence of Unconventional Gas / Piceance Basin Rulison field discovery Operation Plowshare Mesaverde tight gas potential recognized in early 195 s (Rulison field discovery) Massive nuclear and hydraulic fracs deemed unsuccessful Increased drilling activity due to increased gas price and advancement of frac technology Best fit exponential y=1e-21 e.249x R 2 =.9846 Exponential growth in production starting in 1995 Production has been limited by take-away capacity and attendant low price (Courtesy of IHS, 28)

21 Deepwater / New Frontiers Brazil Santos Sub-Salt Salt Gulf of Mexico Lower Tertiary Ultra deep water 2-3 m Ultra deep water 12-3 m Rugose sea floor Post-salt sediments Post-salt sediments Variable salt thickness 5-6 m Complex salt geometry 5-7 m TD: 8 m (>25, ) Heterogeneous carbonate reservoir + variable permeability TD: 9 m (<3, ) Turbidite sandstone reservoir + low permeability + moderate porosity + overpressure

The Pace of Innovation / Water Depth Capability (Water Depth in meters) 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 25 2 15 1 5 194 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 Fixed Platform TLP / CT / Spar FPSO / SS DW

22 The Pace of Innovation / Water Depth Capability (Water Depth in meters) 5 1, 1,5 2, 2, Fixed Platform TLP / CT / Spar FPSO / SS DW Production (IHS) Exponential Relationship: y=3e-73e.87x R 2 = Linear Extrapolation: 1985 to 25 Production (Million Barrels/Day) Year

23 The Inexorable Pace of Innovation 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, MOORE S S LAW Linear scale Pentium I Pentium II 2,, Intel Intel 386 Intel Semi-log scale Processor 286 Itanium 2 Processor Itanium Processor Pentium 4 Processor Pentium III Processor Pentium II Processor Pentium Processor 486 Processor transistors 1,,, 1,,, 1,, 1,, 1,, 1, , 84 1, (data from Intel, 27) CAPABILITY (linear) - Breakthrough The Learning Curve Exponential, accelerating growth Succession of S-curves Each succeeding curve has shorter base, longer ramp TIME (linear)

24 Intrinsic Value of Unconventional Resources Materiality Security Optionality Sustainability Commercial Viability Technology - Large opportunities available - In politically stable countries - Piloting, development pace allow for significant reaction to learning and changing market conditions - Scope for multi-decade production profiles - Opportunities exist in countries importing gas, offering existing infrastructure, attractive fiscal terms and favorable business environment / outlook + Favorable early entry & lease holding costs, modest entry work program requirements - Technology is a key value lever

25 Unconventional Gas / An Outlook and Remaining Challenges U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price (Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet in 29 $) Data Source: EIA 5 7 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- 9 Outlook A breather breather followed by continued production growth in North America and beyond Unconventional gas will be competitive with imported or other new indigenous conventional sources of gas Will provide material, strategically important resource Continued growth of global resource base of unconventional gas 1,8 1,6 US Onshore Gas Rig Count Key Challenges 1,4 1,2 1, Data Source: Baker Hughes Develop a predictive understanding of subsurface controls Rock revival Focus on fundamental science Innovate new technologies for detection, drilling, stimulation, enhanced recovery and water control Reduce surface footprint and water demand

26 The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking. John Kenneth Galbraith Grateful Acknowledgements to the team pursuing Unconventional Resources

Enabling Unconventional Resources

Enabling Unconventional Resources 8 th U.S. - China Oil and Gas Industry Forum San Francisco, California U.S.A. September 9-11, 2007 ROLE OF UNCONVENTIONAL Increasing contribution by unconventional resources