The Challenge of China

Transcription

1 The Challenge of China

2 The first Dynasty, the Xia, began to make bronze objects 4000 years ago, 2000 BC. They were succeeded around 1500 BC by the Shang Dynasty that used bronze cast vessels when offering sacrifices to the ancestors.

3 Mandate of Heaven 1. The right to rule is granted by Heaven. It gives the ruler prestige and religious importance. 2. There is only one Heaven therefore there can be only one ruler. It gives the ruler supreme power. 3. The right to rule is based on the virtue of the ruler. 4. The right to rule is not limited to one dynasty. It justifies rebellion as long as the rebellion is successful.

4 Student Riots and Change After the fall of the Emperor in 1911, Sun Yatsen organizes the New Republic. This fails and students riot at Tiananmen Square on May 4, 1919 became the basis of the Communist Party. Students riot in Tiananmen Square in 1989 to challenge the CCP and they are put down with military force on June 4 th.

5 Yang / ; yáng; "sunny place, south slope (hill), north bank (river); sunshine") is the brighter element; it is happy, active, light, masculine, upwardseeking and corresponds to the day Yin / ; y n; literally "shady place, north slope (hill), south bank (river); cloudy, overcast") is the darker element; it is sad, passive, dark, feminine, downward-seeking, and corresponds to the night.

6 The Red Army Route of The Long March 86,000 men and woman began the trip that would last over a year until October 19, 1935 in Yan'an in Sha'anxi Province. Some of the prominent Chinese leaders that began the Long March were Mao Zedong, Zhou Enlai, Deng Xiaoping, Zhu De, Peng Dehuai, leading the Third Army Group, Lin Biao, leading the First Army Group, Nie Rongzhen, political commissar of the First Front Army, Liu Bocheng, Ye Jianying, (the preceding from Zhu to Ye would later be declared Marshals in 1955), and Li Xiannian, who would become the President of the People's Republic of China. He Long, (also to be named a Marshal) had been sent ahead leading the Second Army Group and to-be-marshal Chen Yi was left behind with the wounded and sick. 4,000 made it.

7 In transforming a backward agricultural China into an advanced industrialized country, we are confronted with arduous tasks and our experience is far from adequate. So we must be good at learning. 1956

8 They must be Marxist-Leninist revolutionaries and not revisionist. They must serve the majority of the people of China They must be capable of uniting and working together They must be models of listening and not despotic They must be modest and prudent, self critical and have the courage to correct mistakes shortcomings. They must never cover up errors, claim all credit and shift all blame.

9 Population China United States Total 1,313,973, ,444,215 Median Age Population Growth Rate Ratio male/female Fertility babies/woman Labor Pool 791,000, ,300,000

10 Land (sq. km) Water(sq. km) Arable land (sq. km) Irrigated land (sq. km) China 9,326, ,550 1,385,909 (1,055sqm/cap) 545,960 United States 9,161, ,497 1,649,146 (5,526sqm/cap) 223,850

11 Infrastructure China United States Roads (km) 1,447,682 4,164,984 Railroad (km) 74, ,605 Pipeline (km) Oil Gas 17,758 15, , ,665 Waterways (km) 123,964 41,009 Airports 403 5,119 Phone lines Cell

12 Energy Source China United States Electrical Production 2.19 trillion kwh 3.89 trillion kwh Oil production Consumption 3.5 mbbl/day 6.4 mbbl/day 7.6 mbbl/day 20 mbbl/day Natural Gas 35.6 bm bm bm bm 3 Coal 2226 Mt 951 Mt

13 Sector China United States Agriculture (%) (work force %) Industry (%) (workforce %) Service (%) (workforce %) Labor Force 791,000, ,000,000 Unemployment 9% 5%

14 China United States GDP $2.225 trillion $12.49 trillion GDP (PPP) $8.859 trillion $12.36 trillion GDP per capita $1,694 $41,913 Federal Revenues $ trillion $2.119 trillion Federal Expenses $ trillion $2.466 trillion Debt (%GDP)

15 Supply-Demand Balance: Steel market balance in China by region Steel production and consumption, 2005 Values by region/province million tonnes of crude steel North West Metropolitan North East KEY (million tonnes) Steel production > < 10 production consumption South West Map shows steel production by province for 2005 Bars show levels of steel production and apparent consumption by region Coastal 72 South Central Data: CRU Analysis

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17 1. Comprehensive Casting Facilities All processes and all technologies

18 2. Vast output, huge number of casting plants, small average size of plants. China is largest casting producer in the world

19 Forecast of Worldwide Casting Shipments in 2007 Mexico 2.0 M Brazil 2.4 M India 4.2 M Korea Eastern Europe 3.0 M Canada 1.0 M 2.1 M Russia 6.9 M (metric tons) Other Japan 7.0 M 1.9 M China 21.9 M United States 13.6 M 63% of the shipments made in the world in M Western Europe

20 Steel Casting Production in the U.S. million tons Million Tons U.S Year

21 Economic Trends in US Capital Equipment Investment 15 to 40 years Excess Capacity s Prices stable or decline Cost cutting required Reduce inventory Minimum staff Low profitability Liquidation of capacity Low interest rates, inflation, inventories, lead times Fewer captive operations Limited Supply s Prices increase Production required Inventory asset Staff required New products and processes Increases in capacity Increases in interest rates, inventory, inflation, lead times New captive operations

22 Consumer Price Index

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24 Price of Copper From London Metal Exchange

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27 Conklin

28 Moody s Aaa Bond Yield

29 Recent Moody s Aaa Rate

30 All Steel and Steel Casting Production 2005 Million metric tons all Romania Poland Italy Taiw an Mexico Spain Czech R. UK France Canada Turkey S. Africa S. Korea Germany Ukraine Japan Brazil India Russia US China Steel Castings All Steel Thousand metric tons castings

31 All Steel and Steel Casting Production per Capita 2005 kg of all steel/person Romania Poland Italy Taiw an Mexico Spain Czech R. UK France Canada Turkey S. Africa S. Korea Germany Ukraine Japan Brazil India Russia US China Steel Castings All Steel kg of castings/person

32 3. Low average technology and management level

33 4. Ascension to a market economy

34 Subsidies to Chinese Industry Ownership transfers Debt to equity Grants for energy and materials Control of price for energy and materials Debt forgiveness Currency value Tax incentives Preferred loans Barriers to import Barriers to foreign investment Infrastructure development Border adjustable taxes

35 70% FIXED ASSET INVESTMENT AND GDP GROWTH, % 61.8% 50% % Growth 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3.8% 2.4% 23.9% 9.2% 44.4% 30.4% 17.5% 14.2% 14.0% 14.8% 13.1% 13.9% 9.3% 10.9% 7.6% 10.0% 7.8% 8.8% 5.1% 27.7% 26.6% 25.7% 16.9% 13.0% 10.3% 9.9% 10.0% 10.1% 8.4% 8.3% 9.1% Fixed Asset Investment GDP The growth rate of FAI has been consistently higher than that of GDP In the first half of 2005, the growth rate of FAI was 3 times higher that that of GDP

36 The enemy will not perish of himself. Neither the Chinese reactionaries nor the aggressive forces of U.S. imperialism will step down of their own accord Either the East Wind prevails over the West Wind or the West Wind prevails over the East Wind. I believe that the East Wind is prevailing 1957

37 Primary Problems Facing the Chinese Foundry Industry

38 1. Casting Quality

39 2. Management

40 3. Quality of raw and auxiliary materials

41 4. Labor and environmental protection

42 5. Quality of foundry personnel