Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development

Transcription

1 TC Project INT/4/142: Promoting Technology Development and Application of Future Nuclear Energy Systems in Developing Countries Workshop on Tools for Nuclear Energy System Assessment (NESA) for Long-Term Planning and Development, July 2009 Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development R. Alexander Roehrl Planning and Economic Studies Section International Atomic Energy Agency

2 Contents Introduction What are indicators? How can they be used? Examples Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development (EISD) Indicators for Nuclear Power Development (INPD) Conclusion 2

3 PESS energy indicators UN Indicators for Sustainable Development (ISD) Only 3 energy indicators Agenda 21 (Chpt.40) Missing technology resolution ISED Energy indicators for sustainable development (EISD) by, UN, IEA, EEA, Eurostat Indicators on corporate social responsibility for energy companies Innovation indicators for the nuclear power sector Rising expectations for nuclear power guidelines, milestones and tools to support decision-making at various levels Indicators for nuclear power development (INPD) March ? Draft set Related indicators sets: Energy security indicators (ECN) Knowledge indicators (NKM) WS Technology-specific on Tools for NESA for LT sustainability Planning & Development, indicators (PSI) INPRO requirements 3

4 What is an indicator? Indicator: way to measure, indicate, point out or point to ; something that is a sign, symptom or index of; something used to show visually a system condition. To do what? describe a status or change measure progress against a goal show direction (prioritize). Analyze Diagnose Formulate strategy Source: Maureen Hart, 4

5 Blind monks examining an elephant Question Perspectives Agreement on indicator and its measurement What sort of thing is an elephant? In their ignorance they are by nature quarrelsome, wrangling, and disputatious, each maintaining reality is thus and thus 5 Source: 1888, ukiyo-e print by Hanabusa Itchō

6 Who? Source: Mirakyan et al. (2008), 6

7 Indicators and energy systems analysis Formal work plan Indicators Energy system models Indicators Organisational steps Structure problem System boundaries Define goals & scenarios Database Model runs Evaluate impacts Sensitivity analysis Compare options Select strategies Actors Planner Reference group Decision maker Expert group Planner Expert group Planner Reference group Decision maker Expert group 1. Preparation & orientation 2. Detailed analysis 3. Prioritisation & decision Source: based on Mirakyan et al. (2008), 7

8 What makes a good indicator? Measure what you want to be Measure cause and effect ISED o Direct driving forces o Indirect driving forces o State Typical o Pressure o State o Response 8

9 PESS indicator approach - summary Who? What? How? When? -PESS approach Energy planners and government officials at the planning and policy levels in developing and developed countries (+ int l community) capture wider considerations and conditions, (energy, economy, environment, institutions, social and political); national-level; linked to energy system analysis; Reflect int l community view; int lly compatible; Scientific-technocratic; descriptive; individual indicators; quantitative; actionable or external factors; few well-defined indicators (scientifically robust, functionally relevant, pragmatic); methodology and data descriptions; Medium to long-term perspective; describe past, present or expected future; applied throughout energy planning cycle. Contrast Politicians, general public, programme managers, industry, academia Global, regional, subnational, city, system-level; specific sectoral sets; Performance, international benchmarking; judgemental; Socio-political; normative; composite indicator; qualitative; data-focussed Short-term; very long-term; programme monitoring; 9

10 Example 1: Energy indicators for sustainable development (EISD) - Objective Information about something of interest: energy value: sustainability aspiration: development In order to analyze: past trends and current situation diagnose: help specify objectives (or at least directions) and measure distance to target formulate strategy: explore options and measure progress towards targets over time 10

11 Energy indicators for sustainable development (EISD) - Product Prepared by UN member States and five agencies:, UN DESA, IEA, EUROSTAT, EEA Dimensions: economic, social, environment 30 indicators, 19 issues Guidelines, methodology, limitations EISD applications in member States 11

12 Top-down policy-focussed indicator framework Theme Sub-theme Issue Indicator Social Equity Affordability Share of household income spent on fuel and electricity Components Household income spent on fuel and electricity Household income (total and poorest 20% of population) Code Soc2 12

13 19 inter-linked EISD issues Social Economy Environment Accessibility Affordability Overall Use Overall Productivity Supply Efficiency Production Climate Change Air Quality Water Quality Disparities Safety End Use Diversification (Fuel Mix) Prices Imports Soil Quality Forest Solid Waste Generation and Management Strategic Fuel Stocks 13

14 EISD - Social Theme Subtheme Issue Abbrev. Indicator Social Equity Accessibility SOC1 Share of households (or population) without electricity or commercial energy, or heavily dependent on noncommercial energy Affordability SOC2 Share of household income spent on fuel and electricity Disparities SOC3 Household energy use for each income group and corresponding fuel mix Health Safety SOC4 Accident fatalities per energy produced by fuel chain 14

15 EISD - Economy Theme Subtheme Issue Abbrev. Indicator Overall Use ECO1 Energy use per capita Overall Productivity ECO2 Energy use per unit of GDP Supply Efficiency ECO3 Efficiency of energy conversion and distribution Production ECO4 ECO5 Reserves-to-production ratio Resources-to-production ratio Economy Use and Production Patterns End Use ECO6 ECO7 ECO8 ECO9 Industrial energy intensities Agricultural energy intensities Service/commercial energy intensities Household energy intensities ECO10 Transport energy intensities Diversification (Fuel Mix) ECO11 ECO12 ECO13 Fuel shares in energy and electricity Non-carbon energy share in energy and electricity Renewable energy share in energy and electricity Security Prices ECO14 End-use energy prices by fuel and by sector Imports ECO15 Net energy import dependency Strategic Fuel Stocks Stocks of critical fuels per corresponding fuel ECO16 consumption 15

16 EISD - Environment Theme Subtheme Issue Abbrev. Indicator Atmosphere Climate Change Air Quality ENV1 ENV2 ENV3 GHG emissions from energy production and use per capita and per unit of GDP Ambient concentrations of air pollutants in urban areas Air pollutant emissions from energy systems Environment Water W ater Quality ENV4 Land Contaminant discharges in liquid effluents from energy systems including oil discharges Soil Quality ENV5 Soil area where acidification exceeds critical load Forest ENV6 Rate of deforestation attributed to energy use Solid Waste Generation and Management ENV7 ENV8 ENV9 Ratio of solid waste generation to units of energy produced Ratio of solid waste properly disposed of to total generated solid waste Ratio of solid radioactive waste to units of energy produced ENV10 Ratio of solid radioactive waste awaiting disposal to total generated solid radioactive waste 16

17 EISD pilot applications UN/ publication (2007) Regional technical cooperation project RAS/0/041 Tracing future sustainable paths through nuclear and other energy options, Applications in 18 countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, Cuba, China, India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Lithuania, Mexico, Mongolia, Myanmar, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Thailand and Viet Nam. 17

18 EISD characteristics to remember Not a test or a contest National self-assessment, no international benchmarking, not judgement of good or bad Motivate the question Why? EISD need context Country s economy and resources Other indicators Each gives an indication of one aspect of energy use EISD as a tool Need careful interpretation in context Used with energy systems models 18

19 EISD applications: Analysis check consistency of historical data analyse past trends explore past linkages: synergies and trade-offs understand causal relationships estimate effectiveness of past policies/interventions Imports as share of total Brazil net import reduction TPES Oil and Oil products 19

20 EISD applications: Diagnosis assess current situation against goals and aspirations identify intervention needs detect management requirements rank priorities 100% Electricity access in Ghana Brazil priority areas 1. Diversify the energy mix while promoting sustainable development. 2. Promote energy efficiency whilst reducing regional disparities and improving energy affordability. electricity access 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% urban rural 20

21 EISD applications: Strategy formulation explore future options identify strategic objectives check plausibility and implications of strategies, policies and measures iterative applications with energy planning models monitor policy implementation Cuba proposed strategies (2007): Offshore hydrocarbons exploration. Expand LPG use and pilot projects Make use of technical capacities (solar heaters; PV systems; minihydro; windmills; water pumps; etc.) Financing mechanisms Efficiency of sugarcane boilers Evaluate nuclear power option Increase energy efficiency. Explore wind power and use hydro potential. 21

22 EISD applications: Strategy formulation (2) Malaysia electricity capacity to 2030 Project RAS/0/045 22

23 Example 2: Indicators for nuclear power development (INPD) - Objective Can be used by energy planners and government officials in developing countries that consider to start or expand nuclear power Capture wider considerations and conditions that may or may not lead to a need/demand for nuclear energy (incl. energy, economic, environmental, institutional, social and political issues), and cover key aspects of readiness for nuclear power; Closely linked to energy system analysis; Current draft INPD are an extension of the EISD! 23

24 Potential users and their questions Users Energy planners, economic planners, policy makers Decision-makers and managers in government and NPP companies Developers, owners and users of nuclear technology and policy makers Nuclear industry, government and development banks. Politicians and general public International organizations Lobbyists Questions Should we explore starting/expanding NP given the current conditions? How and when to implement the programme? How to develop the technology system? Do we have the capacity to start/expand? Should we make the political decision to go ahead? Is NP expansion good for member States and the world? Why we have to support (or should not support) the nuclear industry? 24

25 Draft INPD 46 interlinked issues Energy Economy Environment Institutions Policy Growth experience Air Quality Rule of law Growth potential Stability Climate Change Political stability and absence of violence Production Vulnerability Water availability Government effectiveness Energy diversification Imports, exports, and diversification Market structure Generation cost Water quality Land availability Regulatory quality Voice and accountability Access to fuel stocks/supplies End-use prices Land quality Control of corruption Grid size Grid reliability Access to finance Cost of finance Bond markets Solid Waste Generation and Management External costs Nuclear development organization Regulatory organizations Reactor technology Cross-border infrastructure Non-electric applications Social and political Accessibility Affordability Industrial Safety Nuclear safety Physical protection Views of general public Technological resources Government political support International agreements and conventions Nuclear WS Radiation Tools for Hazard NESA for LT Planning & Development, 25

26 Participatory Process 1 st Meeting March nd Meeting October / rd Meeting?? 2010 Analytical work Proceedings of the 1 st meeting Pilot applications in member States Analytical work Indicators for nuclear power development: guidelines and methodologies Applications Tools? Consultations Consultations International organizations 26

27 How many indicators do we need? "Trying to run a complex society on a single indicator like the Gross National Product is literally like trying to fly a 747 with only one gauge on the instrument panel..." (Source: Hazel Henderson, Paradigms of Progress) 27

28 Conclusion Series of energy indicators developed and promoted by -PESS Recommended to apply ISD, EISD and INPD Need to tailor to country situation. Need for your feedback! Need for a series of indicator sets! Can you see the elephant? Many more pilot applications needed! Are you interested? R. Alexander Roehrl, <R.Roehrl@iaea.org> Tel.:

29 Thank you for your attention 29