NIES, Tsukuba March 13, 2004

Transcription

1 OOK CONTENTS NIES, Tsukuba March 13, 2004

2 ook Chapters Chapter 1. Introduction Chapter 2. Indian Scenarios and the AIM/ENDUSE Database Chapter 3. AIM/ENDUSE Model Application Chapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application Chapter 5. AIM/Material Model Application Chapter 6. AIM/Trend Model Applications for South Asia Chapter 7. AIM Database and Emissions Inventories Chapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road Ahead

3 hapter 1. Introduction 1.1 Climate Policy Modeling 1.2 Integrated Modeling - Linking Science with Policy 1.3 The AIM Paradigm 1.4 AIM Modeling Approach 1.5 AIM Structure 1.6 AIM Scope 1.7 Overview of AIM Applications for India 1.8 AIM Inputs in National and International Assessments

4 hapter 1. Introduction lassification of energy-environment models Energy Environment Models Top-Down Bottom-Up Local Integrated Partial/General Equilibrium Macro-Optimization Technology Assessment Accounting system GIS ingle-country Global Energy System Optimization Sector Optimization Emissions Inventory

5 Cambodia Bhutan Laos Solomon Islands Kiribati Bangladesh Vanuatu Papua New Guinea Pakistan Nepal Myanmar Vietnam Sri Lanka Maldives Samoa Indonesia Tajikistan Philippines India Fiji Kyrgyz Republic French Polynesia Tonga China Thailand Iran New Zealand Uzbekistan Mongolia Malaysia Japan Turkmenistan Nauru Taiwan Australia Korea, Dem Korea, Rep Kazakhstan Palau Singapore Brunei hapter 1. Introduction IM family of models AIM/Emission Year Rural Commerce Industry Agriculture Transport Urban Average cost for CO2 2 reduction, yuan/t-c Rate of of accumulated CO CO (%) reduction (%) AIM/Emission-Linkage AIM/Bottom-up AIM/Energy-Economics AIM/Land-Equilibrium AIM/Enduse AIM/Local Inventory activity 2030 Mt-CO 2 < >21 CO 2 emission in 2030 AIM/Material Gt-C Fossil Intensive Society Without Counter Measures 750 ppm 550 ppm Recycling Society Global CO 2 emissions and reduction f or stabilizat ion AIM/CGE (Energy) Japan USA EU FSU GDP GDP change change by by the the Kyoto Kyoto with with USA and without and without USA USA AIM/Country AIM/Global AIM/CGE-Linkage AIM/Ecosystem 2007 Year GDP loss after mitigation Mitigation from green consumption Mitigation from taxation policy Mitigation from technological improvement Mitigation from environmental investment GDP loss due to CO2 2 and solid waste constraints without countermeasures Mitigation of GDP loss GDP GDP loss loss from reference case (Trillion yen at 1995 (Trillion yen at 1995 prices) AIM/Impact AIM/Land AIM/Water AIM/Agriculture AIM/Vegetation AIM/Health etc. AIM/Database GDP c hange (%) AIM/Trend Change in potential productivity of rice CO 2 emission per capita (t-c/capita) AIM family AIM/Air (kg/ha) AIM/Climate Atmospheric model UD Ocean model Radiative forcing model GCM,RegCM interface

6 hapter 1. Introduction IM Cooperation in Asia-Pacific region IIM AIT UPM SNU ERI KEI IGSNRR NIES Kyoto Univ. JAPAN National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Kyoto University CHINA Energy Research Institute (ERI) Institute of Geographical Science and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR) INDIA Indian Institute of Management (IIM) KOREA Seoul National University (SNU) Korea Environment Institute (KEI) THAILAND Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) MALAYSIA University Putra Malaysia (UPM)

7 hapter 1. Introduction omponent models in AIM applied to India AIM/Enduse AIM/Local AIM/Material AIM/Trend Area of application Brief description Location in this book Analysis of GHG A bottom-up technology selection Chapter 2 and emissions mitigation and model within a country s energy, Chapter 3 local air pollution control environment and economic system Estimating and analyzing future emissions from LPS and area sources Estimates economic and environmental effects of environmental investment, mainly focusing on solid waste management. Estimation of future economic, energy, and environmental trends Bottom-up linear programming model, which selects a combination of technologies with least cost while satisfying demand and supply constraints. A top-down macro economic model based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. An econometric model which calculates relationships between each parameter by regression method and extrapolates these relationships for future projections. AIM/Database Supporting AIM models Contains various types of datasets including statistics, outputs by AIM, outputs by other modelers, and estimates by international organizations and governments Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Chapter 7

8 hapter 2. Indian Scenarios and the AIM/ENDUSE Database.1 AIM/Enduse model structure.2 Indian scenarios.3 Data development.4 Demand projections.5 Sectoral process representation in AIM.6 Global and Indian energy intensity and emission trends

9 Centralization hapter 2. Indian Scenarios and the AIM/ENDUSE Database atrix of Indian Scenarios Market integration Integrated Fragmented IA1 IA2 Governance Decentralization China IB1 Sustainable Development Pre-reform (Mixed Economy Model) IB2 Self Reliance Model

10 hapter 2. Indian Scenarios and the AIM/ENDUSE Database DP and Population Projection for Indian Scenarios GDP (Index 2000 = 100) IA1 IB1 IA2 IB2 Population (millions) IA2 IB2 IA1 IB IA1 IA2 IB1 IB IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2

11 hapter 2. Indian Scenarios and the AIM/ENDUSE Database ectoral GVA in Reference Scenario (IA2) 50 Share of GDP (%) Commercial Industry Agriculture 5 Transport Industry Commercial Transport Agriculture

12 hapter 2. Indian Scenarios and the AIM/ENDUSE Database nergy intensity of various industries (PJ/million tons) in (IA2) Scenario Industry Steel Cement Fertilizers Brick Pulp and paper Textiles Sugar Chlor alkali Aluminium

13 hapter 2. Indian Scenarios and the AIM/ENDUSE Database uture intensity trends in India (IA2 Scenario) Indexed (2000 = 100) GDP/ Capita Energy/ GDP Carbon/ Energy Carbon/ Capita

14 hapter 3. AIM/ENDUSE Model Application 3.1 Aggregate national results 3.2 Analysis for select End-use sectors 3.3 Non-CO2 GHG analysis 3.4 Interaction between models 3.5 Conclusions

15 hapter 3. AIM/ENDUSE Model Application uel wise Primary Energy Consumption under IA2 scenario Peta Joules Coal Gas Diesel Kerosene Fuel Oil Gasoline ATF Biomass

16 hapter 3. AIM/ENDUSE Model Application uel-wise CO 2 Emissions under IA2 scenario Mt-CO Coal Gas HSD Kerosene Fuel Oil Gasoline ATF Electricity

17 hapter 3. AIM/ENDUSE Model Application lectricity Generation Mix under IA2 scenario Billion KWh Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Renewable

18 hapter 3. AIM/ENDUSE Model Application uture methane and N 2 O emissions under alternate scenarios CH 4 (Million tons) N 2 O (Million tons) IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2 IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2

19 hapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Model Structure 4.3 AIM/Local Database System 4.4 Data Development for the AIM/Local model in India 4.5 Indian Emissions Analysis 4.6 CO2 Emission Mitigation and Co-benefits 4.7 Urban Applications 4.8 Interaction with other models (AIM/End use and AIM/Air Model) 4.9 Policy insights and conclusions

20 hapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application Growth in CO 2 emissions and Per capita CO 2 emissions under alternate scenarios CO2 emissions (Mt-CO2 ) Per capita CO 2 emissions (T-CO 2 ) IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2 IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2

21 hapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application egional Spread of Large Point Sources Power Paper B C Steel Cement Fertilizer Sugar Caustic soda Others A E D A B C Regional Details Golden corridor Delhi Northeast India coal mine D East India coal mine F E F Central India coal mine Southern region

22 hapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application PS Coverage Sector Sub-sectors LPS covered Energy Power (coal & Oil) Power (natural gas) Steel Cement * Fertilizer Paper Sugar Caustic Soda Industrial H 2 SO 4 manufacturing processes Aluminium (Al) Copper ore smelting (Cu) Lead ore smelting (Pb) Zinc ore smelting (Zn) Total

23 hapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application egional distribution of CO 2 emissions for IA2 Scenario Million Tons Million Tons < > 21 Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

24 hapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application egional distribution of CO 2 emissions for Different Scenarios (2030) IA1 IB1 IB2 Million Tons Million Tons < > 21 Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

25 hapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application egional distribution of SO 2 emissions for IA2 Scenario Million Tons < < > 0.20 Million Tons < > Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

26 hapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application egional distribution of CH 4 emissions for IA2 Scenario Thousand Ton CH 4 Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

27 Chapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application Ahmedabad District Location and Talukas 23.4 o N Ahmedabad Municipal Area Viramgam Sanand Dehgam Daskroi Ahmedabad City Dholka Dhandhuka 21.9 o N 71.6 o E 73.0 o E

28 hapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application egional distribution of SO 2 emissions in Ahmedabad District or Reference (IA2) scenario SO 2 Thousand Ton SO 2 Thousand Ton Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

29 hapter 5. AIM/Material Model Application 5.1 Model Structure 5.2 Data Development 5.3 Applications for India 5.4 Results 5.5 Conclusions

30 hapter 5. AIM/Material Model Application olid Waste Generation for Indian Emission Scenarios ndex Year 2000 = 1) IA1 IA2 IB1 IB

31 hapter 5. AIM/Material Model Application umulative CO 2 emissions from India ( ) MtC Reference Constraint Recycling Innovation

32 hapter 5. AIM/Material Model Application hange in GDP over Reference (IA2) Scenario Billion $ (Constant 2000) Constraint Recycling Innovation

33 hapter 6. AIM/Trend Model Applications for South Asia 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Structure of the AIM/Trend model 6.3 AIM/Trend Model Applications 6.4 Policy Implications 6.5 Conclusion

34 hapter 6. AIM/Trend Model Applications for South Asia Future demographic, economic, energy and environment trends for India and several other South Asian countries Aim/Trend linked to bottom-up model to develop South Asian regional energy cooperation scenarios Country AIM/Trend Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Primary Energy Supply Emission trend Economic Indicators South Asia Regional Model

35 hapter 6. AIM/Trend Model Applications for South Asia ojections for South Asian Countries GDP (1995 Billion US$) EJ Year GDP trend for Bangladesh Year Coal Gas Oil Biomass Hydro & Other Renewables Nuclear Total Primary energy supply for India

36 hapter 6. AIM/Trend Model Applications for South Asia ojections for South Asian Countries (Cont..) Milloin Tonnes of CO PJ Year Year Oil Hydro Carbon emission trend for Nepal Electricity generation mix for Srilanka

37 hapter 6. AIM/Trend Model Applications for South Asia olicy Implications and Conclusion Analysis indicates a definite trend of increasing energy imports among countries in the region. Increasing dependence on external sources can be reduced through regional cooperation Supporting robust trade in energy has far-reaching social, economic, energy and environmental security benefits for the region. The trend model has emerged as a robust tool for individual country analysis and for analyzing regional scenarios.

38 hapter 7. AIM Database and Emissions Inventories 7.1 Strategic data requirements 7.2 Data structure 7.3 Functional databases 7.4 Indian emissions inventory: A case study in data management 7.5 Conclusions

39 hapter 7. AIM Database and Emissions Inventories Outline of the AIM/Database AIM/CGE AIM/Trend AIM/Enduse Output Input Statistics, etc. Output Input Statistics, etc. Output Input Statistics, etc. Module of AIM/Common DB Module of AIM/Emission Statistics etc. Module of AIM/Common DB Module of AIM/Trend Module of AIM/CGE Module of AIM/Common DB Strategy Stakeholders Interface Module of AIM/Common DB, etc. AIM/ Common Database Module of AIM/Common DB AIM/ Primary Database AIM/Database Statistics, etc. Module of AIM/Impact Module of AIM/Common DB Module of AIM/Common DB Module of AIM/Climate Module of AIM/Common DB Module of AIM/Material Statistics etc. Output Input Statistics, etc. Output Input Statistics, etc. Output Input Statistics, etc. AIM/Material AIM/Climate AIM/Impact

40 hapter 7. AIM Database and Emissions Inventories Sectoral Contribution of CO2 emissions 45% 35% 35% 2% Power Road 13% Industry Other transport 55% 10% Other industries Steel Other sectors Cement

41 hapter 7. AIM Database and Emissions Inventories Sectoral Contribution of SO2 emissions 46% 10% 7% 36% 14% 42% 1% 3% 6% 8% 27% Power sector Agriculture Others Industry Road Other transport Other industries Steel Fertilizer Cement Industry (non-energy SO 2 )

42 hapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road Ahead 8.1 Indian assessments and policy insights 8.2 Contribution to modeling capacity building by AIM cooperation 8.3 Innovative applications and new model development 8.4 Road ahead

43 hapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road Ahead What are the projected CO 2 emissions under alternate scenarios for India? What are the projected per capita CO 2 emissions under alternate scenarios for India? What are the projected CO 2 emission intensities under alternate scenarios for India? What are the projected non-co 2 GHG emissions under alternate scenarios for India? What are the projected SO 2 emissions under alternate scenarios for India? What are linkages and disjoints between GHG and local emissions? What is the sectoral CO 2 mitigation potential and flexibility of technological options in the short, medium and long-term? What other flexibilities are potentially possible for mitigation? What are the cost implications of carbon mitigation? What is the linkage between sustainable development and carbon mitigation? What is the linkage between local environmental concerns and global emissions? What are the implications of regional energy cooperation in South Asia? How does modeling help to answer some of the above questions?

44 hapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road Ahead nswering policy questions CO2 emissions (Mt-CO 2 ) SO2 emissions (Mt) IA1 IA2 IB1 IB GDP per capita (PPP US$) IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2

45 hapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road Ahead nswering policy questions Coal Natural Gas Renewable Biomass Oil Hydro Nuclear Energy Carbon Electricity GDP SO2 30 Index Past Trends Future Projections Years Years

46 hapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road Ahead anaging SO 2 Emissions: Case of LPS LPS spread in different urban centers LPS Number Share of all-india SO 2 emissions (%) in 1995 LPS in India Power Plants Steel 11 7 Cement 85 5 Fertilizer 31 6 Sugar Paper Total Need for a national policy as well as local-specific policies Power Industrial Processes Others Steel and Cement Fossil Fuel Extraction

47 hapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road Ahead mission Cap-and-Trade vis-à-vis Technology Policy SO 2 Emissions Cap Trajectory 45% cost- savings over 30 years in the emissions cap and trade instrument Marginal costs for SO 2 mitigation SO2 emissions (MT) Marginal Costs (Rs/ton of SO2) Year Year Annual average cost savings over a 30 year period is Rs million ($80 million)

48 hapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road Ahead Road Ahead Data Development Close interface with policymakers Capacity building Focused Modeling Evolving Modeling Paradigms Modeling Protocols Regional and Global Networking

49 PPRECIATION Our thanks to AIM Team members from all countries NIES Japanese Policymakers Indian Policymakers and Morita-san s family