Hog and Pork Situation and Outlook
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1 Hog and Pork Situation and Outlook August 13, 2014 Lee Schulz Assistant Professor & Extension Livestock Economist Department of Economics Iowa State University (515) Midwest & Great Plains/Western Extension Summer Outlook Conference
2 Updated: Farrow to Finish Wean to Finish Added: Farrow to Wean Wean to Feeder (nursery) Feeder to Finish Comparison of how the updated returns series would have looked over the period under the updated procedures. To be transparent, an explanation of how monthly returns series are estimated.
3 Avg : Updated Previous Returns = +$11.33 (w/o manure credit) Returns = +$15.06 (w/ manure credit) Est 2011 = +$16.58 Est 2012 = +$0.34 Est 2013 = +$6.21 For 2014 = +$62.77
4 Avg : Updated Previous Returns = +$7.02 (w/o manure credit) Returns = +$9.84 (w/ manure credit) Est 2011 = +$11.43 Est 2012 = -$0.40 Est 2013 = +$4.77 For 2014 = +$40.26
5 Key Drivers of Pork Producer Profits What will input prices and production costs be? How many hogs will the market see and how big will they be? Much anticipated USDA Hogs and Pigs Report(s) What do inventories suggest? What do sows farrowing (and intentions) suggest? What do pigs saved per litter suggest? What do pig crops suggest? What will hog slaughter be? What will hog weights be? in How will pork demand hold up?
6 Forecasted 2014 = +$62.77 Forecasted Jan-Nov 2015 = +$36.30
7 DDGS is most competitive with corn in hog diets in this range Source: USDA/AMS
8 Data Source: USDA/NASS
9 Thou. Head SOW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 2014-YTD Sow Slaughter -6.0% (vs. 2013) -11.6% (vs ) 2014-YTD Gilt Slaughter* +0.6% (vs. 2013) * University of Missouri 30 JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center Avg H-S-15 08/08/14
10 Thou. Head BARROW AND GILT SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 2014-YTD B & G Slaughter -3.9% (vs. 2013) -4.1% (vs ) 1550 JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center Avg H-S-13 08/08/14
11 Thou. Head ** The approximate times when hog inventory reported in June comes to market HOG SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 180+ JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center Avg YTD Hog Slaughter -4.3% (vs. 2013) -4.5% (vs ) < Last 6 weeks -7.6% (vs. 2013) -8.3% (vs ) H-S-05 08/08/14
12 Data Source: USDA/AMS
13 Mil. Pounds PORK PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Weekly 2014-YTD Pork Production -0.4% (vs. 2013) 0.3% (vs ) WASDE U.S Pork Production (yr/yr): Proj in Aug = -1.8% WASDE U.S Pork Production (yr/yr): Proj in Aug = +2.2 JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center Avg M-S-19 08/04/14
14 Mil. Pounds 750 PORK IN COLD STORAGE Frozen and Cured, End of the Month 2014 YTD Pork in Cold Storage -7.0% (vs. 2013) 3.9% (vs ) Data Source: USDA/NASS JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Livestock Marketing Information Center Avg M-S-10 07/22/14
15 Quarterly Hog & Pork Forecasts (LMIC:08/11/2014) Change Average Change Commercial Change Change Year Commercial from Carcass from Pork from Per Capita from Quarter Slaughter Year Ago Weight Year Ago Production Year Ago Consumption Year Ago (1,000 hd) (%) (lbs) (%) (mil lbs) (%) (retail wt) (%) 2012 I 28, , II 26, , III 27, , IV 30, , Year 113, , I 27, , II 26, , III 27, , IV 29, , Year 112, , I 27, , II 25, , III 25, , IV 28, , Year 107, , I 27, , II 25, , III 26, , IV 29, , Year 109, ,
16 $ Per Cwt. 135 BARROW AND GILT PRICES Iowa So. Minnesota, Carcass Base Price, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center Avg H-P-09 08/11/14
17 Data Source: Barchart.com
18 PEDV Positive Biological Accessions PDCoV Positive Biological Accessions Data Source: AASV.org
19 Data Source: AASV.org
20 Data Source: AASV.org
21 Data Source: USDA/NASS
22 Data Source: USDA/NASS
23 2014-YTD Feeder Pigs -9.6% (vs. 2013) -19.7% (vs. 2012) Data Source: USDA/AMS & APHIS
24 2014-YTD Early Weaned Pig Cash Trade -27.8% (vs. 2013) -26.5% (vs. 2012) -15.2% (vs. Avg ) 2014-YTD Early Weaned Pig Formula Trade -12.7% (vs. 2013) -30.2% (vs. 2012) -23.9% (vs. Avg ) 2014-YTD Feeder Pig Cash Trade -2.5% (vs. 2013) -39.6% (vs. 2012) -38.0% (vs. 2012) Data Source: USDA/AMS
25 Data Source: USDA/AMS
26
27
28
29 Wean to Finish Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the weaned pig, corn, and soybean meal costs Carcass weight: 200 pounds Corn: 10 bu per head SBM: 150 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5-month out LHF Data Source: ISU Livestock Crush Margins
30 Data Source: USDA/AMS, LMIC
31 Data Source: USDA/AMS, LMIC
32 Data Source: USDA/AMS
33 Data Source: USDA/ERS, BLS
34 Data Source: USDA/ERS, BLS
35 $ Per Pound PORK PRICE-QUANTITY RELATIONSHIP Annual, Retail Weight, Deflated Choice Retail Price Pounds Per Capita Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & USDA-ERS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 6.34% demand change 94 H-P-12 03/30/14
36 $ Per Pound PORK PRICE-QUANTITY RELATIONSHIP Annual, Retail Weight, Deflated Choice Retail Price Given LMIC forecast 45.3 lbs/capita) in 2014: No demand change 90 IF 2014 Pork Price = $387.5/lb (+4.3% from 2013) Pounds Per Capita Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & USDA-ERS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 95 H-P-12 03/30/14
37 Q = +8.96% 7 th consecutive yr/yr increase (since Q3.2012) Q : Per Capita Consumption = -1.92% (yr/yr) Real Pork Prices = % IF Real Pork Prices +2.47% = 0.0% Demand Change Data Source: USDA/ERS & USDL/BLS, Compiled & Analysis by Lee Schulz
38 Data Source: USDA/ERS
39 U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Jun 2014 Change from a Year Ago Country Carcass Weight, 1,000 lbs Percent Japan 9, % Mexico 115, % Canada -19, % China (Mainland) 26, % South Korea 52, % Russia 31, % Hong Kong -25, % Australia WASDE U.S , % China (Taiwan) Pork Exports (yr/yr): -5, % Proj in Jun = -2.6% Philippines Jul = +0.3% -2, % Other Countries Aug = +1.5% -17, % Total 181, % Data Source: USDA/ERS
40 USDA s Pork Long-Term Trade Projections (as of Nov 2013 released Feb 2014) Data Source: USDA/ERS
41 Data Source: USDA/ERS
42 Data Source: Policy Analysis Computing & Information Facility In Commerce
43 USDA s Pork Long-Term Trade Projections (as of Nov 2013 released Feb 2014) Pork Exporters: thousand 2013 to 2023 Growth metric tons, carcass weight % Total Brazil % 61 Canada 1,243 1,245 1,235 1,350 8% 105 Mexico % 41 European Union 1/ 2,175 2,204 2,200 2,423 10% 219 China % 133 United States 2,441 2,292 2,390 2,901 27% 609 Major Exporters 6,850 6,701 6,817 7,869 17% / Excludes intra-eu trade. The projections were completed in November Data Source: USDA/ERS
44 Data Source: Policy Analysis Computing & Information Facility In Commerce
45 Data Source: InterPig
46 Data Source: USDA/ERS, FAPRI
47 Thank You! More information available at: Iowa Farm Outlook & News Ag Decision Maker ISU Estimated Livestock Returns ISU Livestock Crush Margins
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