Future Transportation in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Transcription

1 Future Transportation in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Gouri Shankar Mishra Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California Davis Page Kyle Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Tuesday, October 1, 2013 GTSP Technical Workshop 1

2 2 Background! Transportation currently accounts for about a quarter of all CO 2 emissions globally! Passenger transportation accounts for about 70% of this! Historical demand has increased with income! Continued income growth is expected Source: Shafer $ per capita Projected - SSP Source: IIASA SSP Database AFR CPA EEU FSU LAM MEA NAM PAO PAS SAS WEU

3 Background, cont d! Transportation emissions mitigation appears to be especially costly, among sectors of the economy! In the scenarios below, the marginal abatement costs are equal across sectors Source: Kyle et al

4 Motivation and Methods! Motivation: to enhance understanding of! Importance of social and economic trends for future passenger sector! Emissions mitigation potential in the transport sector! Service demand reduction, modal shifting, vehicle downsizing, vehicle efficiency improvement, vehicle fuel switching, upstream emissions reduction! Methods! Improve the technological and regional detail of the transportation sector of the GCAM integrated assessment model! Base-year calibration data and future projections! Ensure that the transportation sector results are consistent with existing well-regarded transportation-only models! Assess the outcomes across a range of socio-economic and emissions mitigation futures 4

5 Socio-economic Scenarios! Socio-economic scenarios are from the IPCC s Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP)! Intended to span a range of plausible futures of challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation! Implemented as population (solid lines) and per-capita GDP (dotted lines) Population (billions) Developing per capita GDP (2005$) Population (billions) Developed per capita GDP (2005$) 5

6 6 Per-capita travel in 2050 in the SSPs

7 7 Modal Shifting in Transportation in the SSPs

8 Energy Intensity of Transportation in the Scenarios (SSP2 shown) 2.5 Average Energy Intensity of Passenger Travel (MJ/PKT) GLOBAL CHN IND USA JPN

9 9 Fuel Consumption and Emissions Developing Regions

10 10 Fuel Consumption and Emissions Developed Regions

11 Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios! Emissions scenarios are from the IPCC s Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)! Intended to span a range of plausible futures of greenhouse gas emissions CO2 Concentrations ppmv RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP

12 Responses to the 4.5 W/m 2 Mitigation Policy: Light Duty Vehicles in 2050! These scenarios observe a mild degree of fuel-switching and vehicle intensity improvement 20% Change from Reference Scenario 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Fuel Price (Liquids) Fuel Price (All) Travel Vehicle Size EV Sales Intensity Intensity (Liquids) (All) 12

13 13 Tank to Wheel Energy and Emissions from Passenger Transportation

14 14 Well to Wheel Energy and Emissions from Passenger Transportation

15 Conclusions What have we learned?! Across a wide range of socio-economic futures, the developing regions account for the majority of global travel demand, energy and emissions! The uncertainty in these regions is particularly large! Travel intensity in the developed regions declines due to technology advance; in developing regions it increases due to modal shifting and changes to larger vehicles! Emissions mitigation in transportation is tightly linked with the energy supply system! The capacity of the system to cut emissions depends on both the consumer and supplier behavior! In these scenarios, the reduction in well-to-wheel emissions exceeds the tank-to-wheel emissions 15

16 Acknowledgements! We would like to thank the Integrated Assessment Research Program of the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy for support of community modeling! We would also like to thank the GTSP sponsors for longterm support of transportation modeling at JGCRI 16

17 17 Backup Slides

18 18 Passenger Transportation in 2005

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20 Modal Shares as Function of Income

21 Comparison of total travel (Trillion PKT) across GCAM Regions

22 Comparison of total fuel consumed (EJ) for passenger travel across GCAM Regions

23 Comparison of TTW CO2 (Million Metric Tonnes) for passenger travel

24 Passenger transportation in 2050: Western Europe The first graph gives the population and per capita PPP GDP (2005 US$) under four different SSPs, and adopted from the IIASA database. The size of the dots represents total PPPGDP (Trillion 2005 US$). The graph on right gives fuel consumption (EJ) and CO2 emissions by all passenger modes in 2050 The size of the dots represents total travel in Trillion PKT.

25 Passenger transportation in 2050: USA The first graph gives the population and per capita PPP GDP (2005 US$) under four different SSPs, and adopted from the IIASA database. The size of the dots represents total PPPGDP (Trillion 2005 US$). The graph on right gives fuel consumption (EJ) and CO2 emissions by all passenger modes in 2050 The size of the dots represents total travel in Trillion PKT.

26 Passenger transportation in 2050: Africa The first graph gives the population and per capita PPP GDP (2005 US$) under four different SSPs, and adopted from the IIASA database. The size of the dots represents total PPPGDP (Trillion 2005 US$). The graph on right gives fuel consumption (EJ) and CO2 emissions by all passenger modes in 2050 The size of the dots represents total travel in Trillion PKT.

27 Passenger transportation in 2050: India The first graph gives the population and per capita PPP GDP (2005 US$) under four different SSPs, and adopted from the IIASA database. The size of the dots represents total PPPGDP (Trillion 2005 US$). The graph on right gives fuel consumption (EJ) and CO2 emissions by all passenger modes in 2050 The size of the dots represents total travel in Trillion PKT.

28 Passenger transportation in 2050: China The first graph gives the population and per capita PPP GDP (2005 US$) under four different SSPs, and adopted from the IIASA database. The size of the dots represents total PPPGDP (Trillion 2005 US$). The graph on right gives fuel consumption (EJ) and CO2 emissions by all passenger modes in 2050 The size of the dots represents total travel in Trillion PKT.