Why Care? 因何关注. Thoughts for the two great economic superpowers and those who aspire to such power 有关两个经济超级大国及其追随者的思索

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1 Why Care? 因何关注 Thoughts for the two great economic superpowers and those who aspire to such power 有关两个经济超级大国及其追随者的思索 Gerry Stokes, Battelle Beijing October 2007

2 My topic 我的议题 Why should the United States and Japan care about the global impacts of climate change? 为何美国和日本应当关注其对气候变化的全球性影响

3 My Biases (1) 我的依据 (1) It took 15 years to get consensus on the easy questions 一个简单的问题 15 年才达成共识 The climate is changing and humanity is in part responsible, particularly over the last 50 years. The Detection and Attribution Problem If we are to mitigate the human impact, there must be a substantial change in society s technological infrastructure, most notably in energy (both supply and demand The Carbon Management Problem

4 My Biases (2) 我的依据 (2) The hard problem problems lie ahead 面前的艰巨问题 How sensitive is the climate system to likely future anthropogenic influences? The Doubling Problem leading to What Constitutes Dangerous Interference? How can we mitigate the influence of human activity to prevent dangerous interference with the climate system? The Mitigation Challenge leading to The Adaptation Challenge

5 Why care? 因何关注 (1) The future impacts of climate change are not well known there is an emerging knowledge of what might happen, but They lack the regional and temporal specificity necessary to plan adaptation Climate Change is not the only change brought by changing atmospheric CO2 concentrations (2) The world is self-insured and the big economies hold the policy.

6 The recent historic change in Ocean ph highlights the uncertainty in impacts 近期海洋 ph 值的变化揭示了影响的不确定性

7 Almost all of the focus of the IPCC, until recently, has been focused on the atmosphere 直至最近 IPCC 几乎所有的关注仍集中在大气上

8 Just like CO2 concentrations, ocean ph is entering terra incognita 就像 CO2 的浓度, 海洋 ph 值仍处于未知领域

9 This a simpler version of the climate problem it is global in character, it effects different places differently, has significant impact, but it is predictable based on relatively simple chemistry rather than having to figure out the complexity of the climate system

10 Impacts are a web of change not just events or processes. 影响是一系列错综复杂的变化, 而非某些事件或过程 We are at the very beginning of understanding those effects. 对其了解尚处于开始阶段 But I think we better hurry up 但我认为已时不我待

11 How do impacts manifest themselves? 影响是如何显现的? Gradual change steady linear response to underlying driving force Change in ph of the ocean General sea-level rise Incremental episodic period and frequency of driving events changes leading to changes mixed with crisis Time of first frost Bark beetle invasion in Alaska Catastrophic irreversible major event creates a major change that cannot be readily reversed Katrina-like events Ice sheet collapses

12 Rich Nations are capital-rich in many dimensions 富国在多个方面资本充裕 Natural Capital: Emphasizes renewable resources, but also could includes non-renewable resources (extraction) Financial Capital: Focus on liquid assets (not just funds - e.g. livestock as currency). Physical Capital: Infrastructure and other items created through economic production. Human Capital: Labor and its attributes (including health and education). Social Capital: Assets derived from membership in a group and strong organizational factors.

13 Nations and groups draw on theses capitals to meet the needs of their members 国家和集团依赖这些资本满足其成员的需求 Resource Pool Natural Capital (Renewable & Nonrenewable) Financial Capital Human Capital Social Capital Physical Capital Systems Resource Demands Needs (Necessities) Wants (Amenities)

14 Without differentiating among the capitals let s redefine their purpose with respect to development 忽略 资本 的差异, 先从发展的角度重新定义其作用 Development Operation and Maintenance Redevelopment and Mitigation Insurance Resources that create new systems Capital used in the normal operation of society Capital used to respond to recover from imposed changes in the system (disaster or design failure) Resources explicitly held in reserve or redirected from operations or development to respond to immediate need

15 This gives us a way to redefine how a nation redefines its use of capital 能使我们从新确认出一个国家如何从新定义其资本的使用 Resource Pool Resource Demands Development Operation and Maintenance Redevelopment and Mitigation Systems Needs Wants Insurance

16 We intuitively understand the basics: The availability and use of resources 我们对资源的获得和使用有直观的了解 Resource Pool Development Operation and Maintenance Redevelopment and Mitigation Insurance The overall size of the pool varies in time *A function both of resource supply and degree of development Allocation among elements varies in response to both external drivers and new priorities

17 National and societal goals with respect to these resources become the following 有关这些资源的国家和社会目标如下 Development Operation and Maintenance Redevelopment and Mitigation Insurance We want to preserve the options for future generations to make life better for themselves We do not want these costs to maintain systems or of the material that flow through them to rise unacceptably - i.e. through shortage. We want the systems we build to minimize unintended consequences and to be durable against the forces of nature The world is self-insured - and we really need to think through what that means.

18 In this framework we can see how to articulate sustainability failures e.g. 基于此框架, 我们能够发现如何明白 可持续性方面的失误, 例如 Development Operation and Maintenance Redevelopment and Mitigation Insurance We do not want these costs to maintain systems or of the material that flow through them to rise unacceptably - i.e. through shortage. Systems (development) cast shadows in the form of resource demand, environmental impacts, and maintenance costs. These shadows are mortgages on the resource pool.

19 Development and redevelopment are not (necessarily) the same 发展和再发展并不 ( 一定 ) 相同 Development Operation and Maintenance Redevelopment and Mitigation Insurance We want to preserve the options for future generations to make life better for themselves, through enhancements over the previous state of service. We want the systems we build to minimize unintended consequences and to be durable against the forces of nature - restoration of previous (or expected) state of service is not the same as creating new services

20 The world responds to large humanitarian disasters - but there limits 世界只对大的人类灾难有所反应 - 但能力有限 Development Operation and Maintenance Redevelopment and Mitigation Insurance What is the capacity of the world to support others in a time of disaster? SE Asian tsunami Katrina Pakistani earthquake Is donor fatigue a depleted insurance pool? The world is self-insured - and we really need to think through what that means.

21 The US and Japan (and by extension the EU) have the lion s share of these resources 美国和日本 ( 及某种程度上欧盟 ) 主宰了这些资源 Natural Capital: Emphasizes renewable resources, but also could includes non-renewable resources (extraction) Financial Capital: Focus on liquid assets (not just funds - e.g. livestock as currency). Physical Capital: Infrastructure and other items created through economic production. Human Capital: Labor and its attributes (including health and education). Social Capital: Assets derived from membership in a group and strong organizational factors.

22 They have created an expected level of service based on the application of those resources to meet the wants and needs of their citizens 基于对这些资源的使用以满足其国民的意愿和需求, 他们已经建立起一个服务的 期望 水准 Resource Pool Natural Capital (Renewable & Nonrenewable) Financial Capital Human Capital Social Capital Physical Capital Systems Resource Demands Needs (Necessities) Wants (Amenities)

23 In a global sense the US and Japan dominate the capital for development, redevelopment and insurance particularly in the developing world 从全球的角度看, 美国和日本主宰了发展和再发展所需的资源, 并在一个演变的世界中得以自保 Resource Pool Development Resource Demands Operation and Maintenance Redevelopment and Mitigation Systems Needs Wants Insurance

24 The question is then in a self-insured world, when will the payouts begin to either infringe on the well-being of the US and Japan or lead to their letting the rest of the world slip into chaos? 问题是, 在一个自保的世界中, 所付出的代价何时将抵消美日的利益或导致其他世界成员陷于险境 Development Operation and Maintenance Redevelopment and Mitigation Insurance What is the capacity of the world to support others in a time of disaster? SE Asian tsunami Katrina Pakistani earthquake Is donor fatigue a depleted insurance pool? The world is self-insured - and we really need to think through what that means.

25 Leading to their descent or downfall 导致其衰败或坠落