U.S. Pork in the Global Marketplace

Transcription

1 U.S. Pork in the Global Marketplace Ohio Pork Congress February 10, 2016 Brett Stuart

2 Outline Quick Recap 2015 What about 2016? Macro Global Pork (China, EU, Russia) U.S. Pork Watchlist

3 Quick Recap 2015 Markets are like airplanes 2015 was set up in 2014 PEDv Dollar RISE Russian pork ban (EU pork) Tight broiler, beef, and pork supplies (2014) 2015 saw some stabilization in dollar rates But large pork and poultry supplies

4 Source: USDA, CME (futures as of 2/2/16)

5 Source: USDA, WASDE, AgriTrends (converted to retail weight equivalents)

6 Source: Pacific Exchange, AgriTrends

7 What About 2016? Macro Environment Global Pork U.S. Pork

8 Global Economy Wobbly? IMF reduced 2016 forecasts Big economy woes EU: Greece $300+ bil; Italy and Portugal have real concerns Japan: into recession, Abe nomics, 10 year GDP avg +0.6% Developing economy woes: Brazil recession deepens China? 3 rd world debt crisis? U.S. dollar pressure

9 Global Commodity Deflation 1. We have TOO much of everything; supply/demand are out of balance Rising supply and/or declining demand Crude, pork, chicken, dairy, grains

10 Source: UN/FAO

11 Global Commodity Deflation 1. We have TOO much of everything; supply/demand are out of balance Rising supply and/or declining demand Crude, pork, chicken, dairy, grains 2. Wall Street money has fled the markets Non commercial Net Longs

12 Source: CME, CattleFax

13 Source: Warren Prosser Commodity Super Cycles

14 This is a FOOD chart, not just a population chart Source: US Department of Commerce, plus other published estimates

15 Global Food Demand +78 million people per year (global growth) Global middle class to rise from 2 billion to 4.9 billion by 2030 Asia driving global food demand But also, less developed nations globally New opportunities for further processed and consumer ready food products (Guangzhou, China) The Pearl River Delta has now surpassed Tokyo as the largest urban population on earth (42 mil). East Asia has 8 megacities (>10 million) and 123 cities with 1 10 million people

16 Source: USDA/FAS, AgriTrends forecasts, *key producing countries

17 Source: USDA/FAS

18 China Pork 2016 Pork gap a bust; gov t reported liquidation was a sham Profits now US$80+/head Corn still above US$7/bu Expansion occurring Imports to grow at a managed level The market of the future? New U.S. access? 77% of U.S. plant capacity now approved (but few hogs are racto free)

19 Source: Average of various Chinese market reports, AgriTrends

20 Source: GTIS, AgriTrends

21 Source: GTIS, China NBS

22 Key drivers: China Pork Imports? Government policies, strategic food plans Food inflation Economics The difficult question: Does China want our pork? We cannot ignore the future potential of U.S. pork to China but we must accept the complex nature of pork access to China

23 The China Dilemma Ensuring Social Stability among the 1.4 billion (and 500+ million peasant farmers) This means Maintaining food supplies This requires: Supporting commodity prices above world market levels (keeping farmers farming) Managing import flows of food/commodities A large degree of self sufficiency

24 Source: USDA/FAS, AgriTrends Pork is 99% Moving to 95% would require 2.2 mmt more imported pork

25 Russian Food Import Bans Russian ban impacting global markets 400,000 mt of EU pork 200,000 mt of dairy (milk solid equiv) 85% EU Russia appears bent on food self reliance; they can get there, maybe by 2017 on meat/poultry 2015f: Russian pork prod +5%; up +21% in 3 years Global ag exporters must adjust

26 Source: USDA/FAS

27 Source: BPEX

28 Source: BPEX

29 Source: BPEX, USDA

30 Source: GTIS, AgriTrends forecasts

31 Source: USDA, AgriTrends

32 Source: USDA, AgriTrends

33 Source: USDA/FAS, AgriTrends forecasts

34 Source: USDA/ERS, AgriTrends forecasts

35 Source: USDA/FAS

36 Source: USDA/ERS, AgriTrends forecasts

37 Source: USDA, AgriTrends Forecasts

38 Watchlist 2016 U.S. poultry (HPAI and production levels) Beef production expanding (1 mil more beef cows on Jan. 1) China spread is HUGE; but market access will remain elusive Global economic malaise Dollar strengthening trend in place EU pork to remain competitive (though not profitable)

39 Current trends In Summary Commodity deflation, strong US$, global economic weakness U.S. hog expansion continues (as does poultry & beef) The limbo line (breakeven threshold) is declining each year Build a hunker down strategy for 2016 (maybe into 2017) Aggressively chase/invest in efficiencies Billions to enter the middle class Survive the next 2 years to participate in growth ahead!

40 40 Denver, Colorado Services Offered: Get plugged in! Global market research Specific market reports alerts/analysis Monthly newsletter Webinars / presentations Brett Stuart bstuart@globalagritrends.com