The World Bank Mexico (CRL) Integrated Energy Services (P088996)

Transcription

1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Copy LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Mexico Energy & Extractives Global Practice IBRD/IDA Specific Investment Loan FY 2008 Seq No: 17 ARCHIVED on 30-Oct-2015 ISR21191 Implementing Agencies: Secretaría de Energía Public Disclosure Authorized Key Dates Key Project Dates Board Approval date:17-jan-2008 Planned Mid Term Review Date:-- Original Closing Date:30-Jun-2013 Project Development Objectives Effectiveness Date:16-Jul-2009 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:25-Mar-2011 Revised Closing Date:30-Oct-2015 Public Disclosure Authorized Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) Increase access to efficient and sustainable integrated energy services in predominantly indigenous rural areas of Mexico Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No MX-GEF Integrated Energy Services (P095038) Global Environmental Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) To achieve reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through the use of renewable energy in rural areas for the provision of electricity. Public Disclosure Authorized Has the Global Environmental Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Name Part 1. Policy, Regulation and Strategy:(Cost $4.10 M) Part 2. Rural Energy Subprojects:(Cost $ M) Technical Assistance for Rural Energy (Previously Part 3) - DROPPED Part 3. Promotion and Technical Assistance to Increase Productive Uses of Electricity:(Cost $6.00 M) Page 1 of 10

2 Part 4. Project Management:(Cost $1.64 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Progress towards achievement of GEO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Moderate Implementation Status and Key Decisions The project contributed to the rural electrification agenda of the Mexican Government, specifically for off-grid electrification efforts. The project contributed to increase access to efficient and sustainable integrated energy services in 40 extremely isolated rural communities of Mexico, and it is on track to meet its Global Environment Objective, GEO (To achieve reduction of greenhouse emissions through the use of renewable energy in rural areas for the provision of electricity), as the 40 solar farms (35 in test or operation and 5 expected to be completed by October 30, 2015) will be able to mitigate approximately 99,000 tonsco2e per year during their lifecycle. Key Decisions The team is maintaining the PDO, GEO and IP indicators as Moderately Satisfactory (MS) as a result of sustained progress. Page 2 of 10

3 Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic -- Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies -- Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program -- Low Low Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Moderate Moderate Fiduciary -- Moderate Moderate Environment and Social -- Substantial Moderate Stakeholders -- Moderate Moderate Other -- Substantial Moderate Overall -- Moderate Moderate Results Project Development Objective Indicators Number of HH electrified with RET. (Text, Custom) Value ,432 The target for this indicator (4,432) corresponds to the entire Government s electrification program i.e., 86 locations (Bank and GEF funds will support approximately 40 locations). CFE has reported that the federal electrification program has only recently started with three locations outside the PSIE project. However, it is unlikely that the locations outside the PSIE project will be electrified by the current closing date of October 2015, and thus the indicator is updated based on the locations financed by PSIE only. In the previous ISR the team estimated the target as 1,800 (on the assumption of 35 communities). Now that the project has been extended to electrify another 5 communities, the target is revised as 2060 HH (for 40 communities). As such, the project has met 89.6% of the revised target (1846 out of 2060, considering 40 farms corresponding to bids 1 to 7). The team has been advised to keep the current results framework and take the opportunity to explain the discrepancy between project targets versus program targets in the ICR. The team will gather additional Page 3 of 10

4 information on other electrification actions by CFE (including pilot projects and projects after PSIE) to fully assess the impact of this intervention on the Government's rural electrification agenda. Costs per New Connection (USD/HH). (Text, Custom) Value 1, ,097 The target of 1,097 USD/HH corresponds to the original results framework, where it was assumed that each HH would have a 100-W panel installed on its rooftop. Consequently, 1,097 USD/HH is equivalent to 1,097 USD / 100 W. For bids 1 to 7 CFE reported an average cost of connection of 14,925 USD/kW which translates into USD/100 W, or USD/HH using the original metrics. Such cost represents an overprice of 36%, which can be explained mainly by two facts: (i) the farms are equipped with a very advanced telecommunication system that allows CFE to operate them remotely, and (ii) the farms are expected to provide electricity to the communities at a service quality that is comparable to the grid. The team has been advised to keep the current results framework and explain the discrepancies between the original indicator (in USD/HH, equivalent to USD/100W) and the two independent indicators of the restructured project, i.e. USD/HH and USD/kW. Notice that the actual cost per connection is given in Mexican pesos (as the currency of contract commitment) and the estimation in USD is highly affected by the exchange rate, which has been particularly volatile during Installed capacity (Text, Custom) Value ,205 The target of 6,205 kw installed capacity corresponds to the entire electrification program, i.e., 86 locations (Bank and GEF funds will support approximately 40 locations). CFE has reported that the federal electrification program has recently started with three locations outside the PSIE project in addition to the two pilot projects. However, it is unlikely that the locations outside the PSIE project will be electrified by the current closing date of October 2015 and thus the indicator is updated based on the locations financed by PSIE. In the last ISR the team estimated the target as 2500 kw (on the assumption of 35 communities). Now that the project has been extended to electrify another 5 communities, the target is revised as 2,880 kw (for 40 communities). As such, the project has achieved 70.7% of the revised target (2037 out of 2880, considering 40 farms corresponding to bids 1 to 7). It should be noted that the requirements for all seven bids were specified in terms of energy (kwh), rather than capacity (kw). The team has been advised to keep the current results framework and take the opportunity to explain the discrepancy between project targets versus program targets in the ICR. Page 4 of 10

5 Incremental increase in MWh/year of electricity consumed for productive uses in targeted communities (MWh/year). (Text, Custom) Value ,768 To the date of this ISR, CFE did not provide an update for this indicator, as most the farms have been in operation only for a relatively small period of time (less than a year) and as such, beneficiaries are using the electricity mostly for residential loads. However, each of the solar farms has included a provision of approximately 30% of its capacity to accommodate productive uses in the future. The estimation of 526 MWh/year accounts for such capacity in all 40 localities. As the project closes on October 30, 2015, the team has agreed to support the Government for carrying out a consultancy with the purpose of estimating energy consumption during the ICR period. The team is currently preparing the ToRs for such consultancy, which is expected to be launched in November As with the other indicators, the target of 5,768 MWh/year corresponds to the entire electrification program, i.e., 86 locations (Bank and GEF funds will support approximately 40 locations). The target should be adjusted when preparing the ICR to account only for the 40 farms benefited from PSIE. Number of new social/productive activities and micro-businesses developed. (Text, Custom) Value The target of 2179 (revised from 1308 in the previous ISR, as 2179 is the correct number according to the restructured project) corresponds to the entire electrification program, i.e., 86 locations (Bank and GEF funds will support approximately 40 locations). CFE has reported that the federal electrification program has recently started with three locations outside the PSIE project in addition to the two pilot projects. However, it is unlikely that the locations outside the PSIE project will be electrified by the current closing date of October 2015 and thus the indicator is updated based on the locations financed by PSIE. In this ISR, the team is estimating the target to 1,013 new social/productive uses and micro-business developed only for the 40 communities benefited from PSIE. As such, the project could achieve in the very short term (within one year from commissioning) 18% of the revised target (185 out of 1013, considering 40 farms corresponding to bids 1 to 7). It should be noted that these are not actual new social/productive activities and micro-business developed. Instead, these are prospective productive activities that were mentioned by the beneficiaries in the initial consultations (prior to the farm construction). Examples of these prospective activities are: (i) greenhouses, (ii) rural grocery stores, (iii) poultry breeding facilities, (iv) bakeries, (v) carpentries, (vi) sewing shops, (vii) mechanical service stations, (viii) livestock breeding facilities, (ix) dairy farms, (x) internet in schools, etc. The team has been advised to keep the current results framework and take the opportunity to explain the discrepancy between project targets versus program targets in the ICR. Total RET energy consumption per household in MWh/year (Text, Custom) Value 0 0 1,370 2,077 Page 5 of 10

6 PHINDGEOTBL Public Disclosure Copy Date 08-Nov Jun Oct Oct-2015 According to the updated framework from the project restructuring of October 2012, each HH would have an output of 1.18 kwp, at a capacity factor of 20%. Translated into energy consumption/year per HH, the target should have been (1.18 kwp/hh) x (24 hrs./day) x (365 days/year) x 20% = 2,067 kwh/year per HH. Therefore, the units of the target should be revised from MWh/year to kwh/year. As with other targets, the target of 2,077 kwh/year corresponds to the entire program, as opposed to the project. Using information from CFE, the team estimated the potential energy consumption per household in kwh/year, which could reach 1,370 kwh/year per household at full load, thus potentially meeting and passing the adjusted project target (estimated at 966 kwh/year per HH for 40 localities). The achievement would thus be 142% at full load (1,370 / 966). People provided with access to electricity by hold connections-other RE: Off-grid (Number, Core) Value Date Jun Oct Oct-2015 The target for this indicator (17,578 people) corresponds to the entire Government s electrification program i.e., 86 locations (Bank and GEF funds will support approximately 40 locations). CFE has reported that the federal electrification program has only recently started with three locations outside the PSIE project. However, it is unlikely that the locations outside the PSIE project will be electrified by the current closing date of October 2015, and thus the indicator is updated based on the locations financed by PSIE. In the previous ISR the team estimated the project target as 8,176 people (for 40 communities). As such, the project has achieved 90% of the revised target (7384 out of 8176, considering the 40 farms for bids 1 to 7). The team has been advised to keep the current results framework and take the opportunity to explain the discrepancy between project targets versus program targets in the ICR. Overall Global Environmental Objective Indicators Emissions Reduction (thousand tones CO2e) (Text, Custom) Value The target of 241,000 tons CO2e per year is estimated on the assumption that rural electrification actions would mitigate CO2 emissions by displacing (i) small gasoline engines for productive uses and (ii) kerosene lamps for lighting purposes. Following the same assumptions and methodology, the team estimated that PSIE will mitigate approximately 99,000 tonsco2e/year. As with other indicators, the target of 241,000 Page 6 of 10

7 PHINDIRITBL PHINDIRITBL Public Disclosure Copy tonsco2/year corresponds to the entire Government program (86 localities). A revised, proportional target of 112,000 tonsco2e/year is proposed by the team. Under this assumption, the project is on track of substantially meeting its GEO (approximately 88% of the target of tonsco2e per year, over the life of the project). Overall Intermediate Results Indicators PPMT/SPICs/PAC/PC/TSMG operational. (Text, Custom) Value None No longer applicable No longer applicable No longer applicable The project was restructured in October 2012 to address complex technical constraints and institutional arrangements that delayed implementation and disbursements. Since the national utility CFE is executing the rural energy subprojects, the following operational agencies are no longer relevant under the restructured arrangements: - PPMT (Program Planning and Management Team). Instead, a Project Administrative Unit within SENER has been established and is in operation. - SPIE (State Project Implementation Committee) - PAC (Project Advisory Committee) - PMC (Project Monitoring Committee) - TSMG (Technical Supervision and Monitoring Group) Design bidding documents. (Text, Custom) Value None Seven bidding documents have been designed. Seven bidding documents have been designed. Four bidding documents. Seven bidding documents were been designed, achieving 175% of target. Bids 1-7 have been successfully completed Page 7 of 10

8 PHINDIRITBL PHINDIRITBL PHINDIRITBL Public Disclosure Copy Issuance of technical guidelines. (Text, Custom) Value None Seven bidding processes (including technical specifications) have been launched. Seven bidding processes (including technical specifications) have been launched. Technical specifications for four bidding documents Seven bidding documents (including technical specifications) were designed, achieving 175% of target. Bids 1-7 have been successfully completed. Baseline Impact Evaluation. (Text, Custom) Value None Three assessments Three assessments Three assessments Three consulting services were completed to carry out social safeguards assessment in several rural communities (100% of target). The assessed communities were: San José de la Cruz, Curachitos, San Buenaventura, El Zancudo Uno, Ojos Azules, Ceja de Cebolleta, Tepalcates, Canoitas-Canoas Dos, la Cieneguita and la Sierrita (Durango), and San José de Carranza (Coahuila). Deliverables have been accepted by SENER and shared with the Bank. CFE is completing an impact evaluation in selected communities using TA resources using the information derived from these three assessments. Medium Term Impact Evaluation Assessment. (Text, Custom) Value None CFE is carrying out two impact evaluation assessments (financed with TA resources) in the same communities where the baseline impact evaluation was conducted and are expected to be completed by the closing date. Upon acceptance, SENER will share the deliverables with the Bank. Therefore the project is on track of achieving 200% of target. Page 8 of 10

9 Overall Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P IBRD Effective USD % P TF Effective USD % Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P IBRD Effective 17-Jan Dec Jul Jun Oct-2015 P TF Effective 05-Dec Dec Oct Jun Oct-2015 Cumulative Disbursements Restructuring History Level Approved on 06-Nov-2012,Level 2 Approved on 04-Jun-2014,Level 2 Approved on 07-Jul-2015 Page 9 of 10

10 Related Project(s) P MX-GEF Integrated Energy Services Page 10 of 10