Globale und österreichische Energieperspektiven Forschungs- und Investitionsbedarf

Transcription

1 Globale und österreichische Energieperspektiven Forschungs- und Investitionsbedarf Nebojša a Nakićenovi enović Technische Universität t Wien xx Internationales Institut für f r Angewandte Systemanalyse xx naki@iiasa.ac.at Sichere Energieversorgung, Strategien und Technologien für die Zukunft, Z Energie 200, BMVIT und IEA, Millennium Event Center, Wien 29 November

2 Herausforderungen Challenges Bereitstellung von nachhaltigen Energiedienstleistungen Provisioning of energy services Technologiediffusionsdauer 20 bis 70 Jahre Technology diffusion takes 20 to 70 years Finanzierung des Strukturwandels Financing energy transformations Energieeffizienz und Entkarbonisierung Efficiency improvements and decarbonization Energiesicherheit und Zuverlässigkeit Safety and security Nakicenovic #2

3 Night Lights 2000 Permanent Blackout Nakicenovic #3

4 Night Lights SRES A Nakicenovic #4

5 Temperature 2070 Nakicenovic #

6 Scenario Overview (World by 20) Population, 9 GDP, 12 $ PE, EJ PE intensity, %/yr Zero-C, % share GtC energy GtC forests GtC-e e all others GtC-e e total ppmv (CO 2 -equiv) Stabilization (ppmv-equiv) A2r -0.6 < Nakicenovic # B B

7 Scenario Overview (World by 20) Population, 9 GDP, 12 $ PE, EJ PE intensity, %/yr Zero-C, % share GtC energy GtC forests GtC-e e all others GtC-e e total ppmv (CO 2 -equiv) Stabilization (ppmv-equiv) A2r -0.6 < Nakicenovic # B B

8 Scenario Overview (World by 20) Population, 9 GDP, 12 $ PE, EJ PE intensity, %/yr Zero-C, % share GtC energy GtC forests GtC-e e all others GtC-e e total ppmv (CO 2 -equiv) Stabilization (ppmv-equiv) A2r -0.6 < Nakicenovic # B B

9 Scenario Overview (World by 20) Population, 9 GDP, 12 $ PE, EJ PE intensity, %/yr Zero-C, % share GtC energy GtC forests GtC-e e all others GtC-e e total ppmv (CO 2 -equiv) Stabilization (ppmv-equiv) A2r -0.6 < Nakicenovic # B B

10 Scenario Overview (World by 20) Population, 9 GDP, 12 $ PE, EJ PE intensity, %/yr Zero-C, % share GtC energy GtC forests GtC-e e all others GtC-e e total ppmv (CO 2 -equiv) Stabilization (ppmv-equiv) A2r Nakicenovic # < B B

11 Global Final Energy by Form IIASA IPCC SRES Scenarios 0 Final Energy Shares (%) Solids (biomass, coal) Grids (electricity, gas, district heat, hydrogen) Liquids (oil products, methanol, ethanol) A2 B2 A1 B1 B1, A2 B2, A Nakicenovic #11

12 ELECTRICITY COSTS 30 CENTS PER kwh 20 Supply Security Infrastuct. Climate Pollution Impacts Intermittent Electricity Supply Limited Capacity Proliferat. Waste Storage Intermittent Electricity Supply 0 Gas CC Coal Wind Hydro Nuclear Solar- Solar Thermal PV 16Nakicenovic Source: Kheshgi, #12 Exxon Mobil (2002)

13 Historical Oil Prices and in Scenarios 0 189: 292 $/bbl $/bbl (current and constant US$2000) Shadow prices Volatility zone Average costs Nakicenovic #13

14 Evolution of Global Primary Energy Nakicenovic #14

15 Evolution of Global Primary Energy Nakicenovic #

16 Evolution of Global Primary Energy Nakicenovic #16

17 Evolution of Global Primary Energy A2 Nakicenovic #17

18 Evolution of Global Primary Energy B2 Nakicenovic #18

19 Evolution of Global Primary Energy B1 Nakicenovic #19

20 s Global Mean Temperature Change Six illustrative SRES scenarios, full range INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

21 World GHG Emissions IIASA A2r Scenario Annual GHG emissions (GtC equiv) Baseline: Emissions without climate policy CO2 carbon intensity improvement Baseline: energy intensity improvement Energy conservation and efficiency improvement Switch to natural gas Fossil CCS Nuclear Biomass (incl. CCS) Other renewables Sinks CH4 N2O F-gases Nakicenovic #21

22 World GHG Emissions IIASA A2r Scenario Annual GHG emissions (GtC equiv) Baseline: CO2 carbon intensity improvement Baseline: energy intensity improvement Energy conservation and efficiency improvement Switch to natural gas Fossil CCS Nuclear Biomass (incl. CCS) Other renewables Sinks CH4 N2O F-gases Nakicenovic #22

23 World GHG Emissions IIASA A2r Scenario Annual GHG emissions (GtC equiv) Baseline: CO2 carbon intensity improvement Baseline: energy intensity improvement Energy conservation and efficiency improvement Switch to natural gas Fossil CCS Nuclear Biomass (incl. CCS) Other renewables Sinks CH4 N2O F-gases Nakicenovic #23

24 World GHG Emissions IIASA A2r Scenario Annual GHG emissions (GtC equiv) Baseline: CO2 carbon intensity improvement Baseline: energy intensity improvement Energy conservation and efficiency improvement Switch to natural gas Fossil CCS Nuclear Biomass (incl. CCS) Other renewables Sinks CH4 N2O F-gases Nakicenovic #24

25 World GHG Emissions IIASA A2r Scenario Annual GHG emissions (GtC equiv) Baseline: Climate Climate Policy Policy CO2 carbon intensity improvement Baseline: energy intensity improvement Energy conservation and efficiency improvement Switch to natural gas Fossil CCS Nuclear Biomass (incl. CCS) Other renewables Sinks CH4 N2O F-gases Nakicenovic #2

26 World GHG Emissions IIASA B1 Scenario Annual G HG emissions (G tc equiv) Baseline: CO2 carbon intensity improvement Baseline: energy intensity improvement Energy conservation and efficiency improvement Switch to natural gas Fossil CCS Nuclear Biomass (incl. CCS) Other renewables Sinks CH4 N2O F-gases Nakicenovic #26

27 World GHG Emissions IIASA B1 Scenario Annual G HG emissions (G tc equiv) Baseline: CO2 carbon intensity improvement Baseline: energy intensity improvement Energy conservation and efficiency improvement Switch to natural gas Fossil CCS Nuclear Biomass (incl. CCS) Other renewables Sinks CH4 N2O F-gases Nakicenovic #27

28 World GHG Emissions IIASA B1 Scenario Annual G HG emissions (G tc equiv) Baseline: CO2 carbon intensity improvement Baseline: energy intensity improvement Energy conservation and efficiency improvement Switch to natural gas Fossil CCS Nuclear Biomass (incl. CCS) Other renewables Sinks CH4 N2O F-gases Nakicenovic #28

29 World GHG Emissions IIASA B1 Scenario Annual G HG emissions (G tc equiv) Baseline: CO2 carbon intensity improvement Baseline: energy intensity improvement Energy conservation and efficiency improvement Switch to natural gas Fossil CCS Nuclear Biomass (incl. CCS) Other renewables Sinks CH4 N2O F-gases Nakicenovic #29

30 World GHG Emissions IIASA B1 Scenario Annual G HG emissions (G tc equiv) Baseline: CO2 carbon intensity improvement Baseline: energy intensity improvement Energy conservation and efficiency improvement Switch to natural gas Fossil CCS Nuclear Biomass (incl. CCS) Other renewables Sinks CH4 N2O F-gases Nakicenovic #30

31 Methode Research for Climate Protection Technological Options for Mitigation (Reclip:tom) Baseline Szenario 200 Top-Down Ansatz IPAT Analyse (Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology) Erlich, Holdren (1972) Basierend auf folgender Literatur (1) Wifo-Szenario (200) ( ) CO Equiv Emissionen in CO Equiv = B BIP VA E 2 (2) European Energy 2 and B BIP( VA) E Transport Trends to 2030 (2004, B... Bevölkerung DG TREN, PRIMES-Modell) (3) BIP... IPCC, Bruttoinlandspr Spezial Report odukt on Emissions (2001) VA... Sektorielle Wertschöpfung Baselineszenario E... Energiebedarf Intensitäten von (2) und (3) MESSAGE A1-B2 Szenarien Übernommen und an (1) angepasst Baseline Szenario ist energieintensives Szenario Müller, #31

32 Research for Climate Protection Technological Options for Mitigation (Reclip:tom) Analysen werden bei konstanter Energiedienstleistungsnachfrage und Nachfragestruktur durchgeführt Emissionen: Vermeidungsmaßnahmen Durch effizientere Bereitstellung der Energiedienstleistung Technologien mit höherem Jahresnutzungsgrad Gebäudedämmung / -struktur Reduktion des Flottenverbrauchs Treibhausgasemissionen Durch Substitution von emissionsintensiven Technologien Änderung der Energieträger Verstärkte Nutzung von öffentlichen Verkehrsmittel CO2-Abtrennung CO 2 no changes Baseline Additional measures GDP (BIP) Müller, #32

33 Research for Climate Protection Technological Options for Mitigation (Reclip:tom) Frozen technology reference level 900 THG Emissionen (Mt CO 2 Equiv) Baseline Szenario Bruttoinlandsprodukt (Mrd. ) Bruttoinlandsprodukt 0 Müller, Energieeffizienz: Raumwärme, Licht, EDV, elektr.. Motoren Energieeffizienz Transport Kein Neubau von Kohlekraftwerken Ergasfahrzeuge und forcierter Einsatz von Biofuels Zusätzlicher Ausbau von erneuerbaren Stromerzeugung Haushalte, Tertiärer Sektor: Vollständiger Ersatz von Kohle u. Öl durch Gas Industrie: Vollständiger Ersatz von Kohle u. Öl durch Gas #33

34 TECHNOLOGIE-ENTWICKLUNG ENTWICKLUNG Technology Dynamics Technologische Unsicherheit: Beschränktes Wissen über zukünftige Technologien Deep Uncertainty: Limited knowledge on feasibility and costs of future technologies Endogene Technologiedynamik: Kostensenkungen von Technologien sind Folgen der gesammelten Erfahrung Technological Learning: Improvements are a function of accumulated experience (learning curve) Nakicenovic #34

35 Japan - PV Costs vs. Expenditures PV costs (198) Yen per W PV costs (198) Yen per W 0,000 0,000,000,000 1,000 1, : 30, : 30,000 Basic Basic R&D R&D 1976: 1976: 16,300 16,300 Applied R&D 1980: 4, x y= R 2 = Cost reduction ~ $ : 1,200 Investment 199: Data source: Data source: Watanabe, 199 &1997 ~ $1 9 0 Watanabe, 199 & , ,000 Cumulative expenditures, billion (198) Yen Cumulative expenditures, billion (198) Yen Nakicenovic Grübler bler,, 2002 #3

36 Existing and Planned Projects Sleipner Project, saline formation, North Sea Weyburn, EOR, Saskatchewan, Canada In Salah, gas reservoir, Algeria (development) Snohvit, off-shore saline formation, North Sea Gorgon, saline formation, Australia (planning) Nakicenovic #36 Source: Sally Benson, 2003

37 RENEWABLES Hoffert et al., Science, 2002 Nakicenovic # 37 IIASA&VUT Nakicenovic #37

38 Nakicenovic #38

39 Hydrogen Airplane Design Source: Airbus Nakicenovic #39

40 Climate-related Investments ( ) (mitigation in the energy sector) 700 Stabilization targets: Low: 3 W/m2 Intermediate: 4. W/m2 600 Billion US$ W/m2 Not Attainable 0 0 A2 B2 B1 Nakicenovic #40

41 Climate Mitigation vs Total Energy Investments (World, ) 2 20 Total investments Upfront Investments Trillion US$2000 Climate mitigation investments 0 A2 B2 B1 A2 B2 B1 Nakicenovic #41

42 Total Energy-related Investments (World, short & long-term) Austria (> billion) EU (>3000 billion) Austria EU Long-term Investment Savings (~40 trillion) Trillion US$ Upfront Investments (~2 trillion) 2 0 A2 B2 B1 A2 B2 B Nakicenovic #42

43 OECD E-R&D E Budgets Nakicenovic IEA, 2004 #43 M 2003 $

44 Public Expenditure on E-R&DE Nakicenovic #44

45 Global Energy Assessment: Towards a more Sustainable Future The magnitude of the change required is huge The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses all the issues simultaneously A paradigm shift is needed: energy end- use efficiency, renewables, and carbon capture and storage. Nakicenovic #4

46 Nakicenovic #46