Co-benefits of Low Carbon Transition in India: Aligning Development Perspective and Sector Approach

Transcription

1 Co-benefits of Low Carbon Transition in India: Aligning Development Perspective and Sector Approach P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Presented in International Expert Meeting on 2 nd International Workshop on Sectoral GHG Emission Reduction Potential, Organized by Ministry of the Environment, Japan, Paris, France, October 22, 28

2 Energy and Carbon: Base Case From 25-25: Annual Economic Growth: 7.2% Annual Population Growth:.9% Assumptions Increase in 25 over 25 Economy 23 times Population 1.56 times Mtoe 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal Commercial Biomass Non Com Biomass Energy Million Ton CO2 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, Carbon Emissions 5 1, Annual Improvement From 25-25: Energy Intensity: 3.14 (%) Carbon Intensity: 3.7 (%) Decarbonization of Energy: -.7 (%) Results: Energy and Carbon Intensity Direct Investment in Energy Projects: 21-3: US$ 1.2 Trillion 23-5: US$ 2.3 Trillion

3 Alternate Development Visions Assumptions 1. Global Stabilization Target Assumption: 55 ppmv CO2e Concentration (OR) 3.4 W/m2 3 o centigrade temperature increase 2. Two Development Pathways for India: (with same total CO2 emissions from 25 to 25) 1. Vision 1: Conventional Development path 2. Vision 2: Sustainability scenario What path shall best deliver national development goals while fulfilling Climate Commitments?

4 Vision I: Managing Climate via Conventional Path 1. Top-down/Supply-side actions 2. High Carbon Price as main instrument 3. Climate Focused Technology Push Million Ton CO2 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, Others Device Efficiency Renewable Energy Electricity (Fuel Switch) CCS 1, Carbon Tax $/tco2

5 Vision II: Managing Climate via Sustainable Path 1. Low Carbon Price 2. Bottom-up/Demand-side Actions 3. Behavioural Change 4. Diverse Technology Portfolio Million Ton CO2 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, Others CCS Transport Mode Urban Planning Consumption Recycling Material Substitutions Appliance Efficiency Renewable Energy Building Electricity (Fuel Switch) 2, 1,

6 Energy Technology Mix in 25 1,2 Base Case Total Energy Demand Share of Renewable 1, Conventional Dev. + Tax Base 34 Mtoe Base 24 % Sustainability C+T 2945 Mtoe C+T 34 % 8 Sust. 24 Mtoe Sust. 47 % Mtoe 6 4 2

7 Co-benefits of Climate Actions 14 Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions 12 Base Case Million tso Conventional Path + High Carbon Price Sustainable Development + Low Carbon Tax

8 CO2 Emissions & Price Trajectories 12 CO2 Price 1 Price CO2 (US $/tco2) Conventional Society Sustainable Society Base Case 25

9 Broadening Sector Perspective for Low Carbon Development

10 Urban - sector? Land-use Planning Building Choices Infrastructures Service Networks

11 Automobile sector? Rush Hour Traffic in India Rising Incomes and Small Cars Tata Nano: $25 QQ: $4

12 Transport mode - sector? Bus Rapid Transport System Technologies for Train Corridors Public Transport: Metro Rail

13 Co-benefits of Regional Infrastructure MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability Co-benefits of South-Asia Integrated Energy-Water Market Benefit (Saving) Cumulative from 21 to 23 $ Billion % GDP Bahrain Qatar Iran United Arab Emirat es Uzbe kistan Tajikista n Turkmenista n Her a t Afg hanista n Ѻ Ѻ Oman Legend Important Places Existing Gas Pipelines Ѻ Gas Pipelines under construction Proposed Gas Pipelines Existing LNG terminals Proposed LNG terminals Existing Gas Basin Proposed Gas Basin Saudi Arabia Yemen Somalia South-Pars Bandar-e-Abbas Iranshahar De lar a m Kandhar Khuzdar Qu et ta Karachi Pakistan Nangal Ludhiana Bat hinda Sangrur Ambala Multan Pa n ve l Pune Ma ld ives Sonipat Del hi Faridabad Mahesana Kalol Ujjain Nadiad Jhabua Ana nd Raj kot Chot il a Bharuch Olpad Surat Va ls ad Dadra Chiptun Guhagar Ra tna gi ri F Gadag Kochi Bareilly Nepal Shahjahanpur Aurai ya Kanpur Gwalior Jagdishpuri Jha nsi Kota Vijaypur Guna Solapur India Nellore F Palmaner MangaloreHassan Chennai Chittoor Bangalore Coim ba tore Tiruchchirappalli Kayankulam Tutikorin Sri Lanka Kokinada Vija yw ada Patna Gaya Vishakhapattnam China Bhut an Dispur Bang lade sh Kolk at a Myanma r (B urma) Laos Thailand In donesia Malaysia Energy 6 Exa Joule CO 2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28.8 SO 2 5 Million Ton 1.3 Total Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits More Water for Food Production (MDG1) 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7) Flood control (MDG1&7) Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)

14 Dematerialization - sector? Demand (Million Ton) Conventional Development Steel Sustainable Society Demand (Million Ton) Conventional Development Cement Sustainable Society Paper 3 Lighting Demand (Million Ton) 3 25 Conventional 2 Development Sustainable Society Demand (Trillion Lumen hrs) 2 Conventional Development 1 Sustainable Society

15 Conclusions Developing Countries have opportunities to make choices which can vitally alter future emissions path. Sector approach for developing countries should be different. The key sectors could be infrastructure, 3R, urban design etc. Sector mitigation strategies should focus on co-benefits Sector approach should aim for cooperation rather than competition. Important to communicate why sector approach? what sectors? how to implement it in a cooperative framework? Thank you