Energy & The Industrial Revolution Past, Present & Future. Arun Majumdar Google

Transcription

1 Energy & The Industrial Revolution Past, Present & Future Arun Majumdar Google

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3 Industrial Revolution: Horse Power to Horsepower 300 Horsepower 10,000 Horsepower 100,000 Horsepower

4 Global per Capita GDP 1750s: 0.7B 2013: 7.0B 2050: 9.0B 2100: 10.0B

5 Do we have enough fossil fuels to support population & economic growth? Global Oil Reserves Global Gas Reserves w/o US Shale BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2012)

6 Price ($/barrel) Global Oil Price & Economic Unpredictability Real Thousands of Barrels per day US Total Oil Consumption $300B/yr Nominal US Balance of Payments US Imports Imported Oil Percentage

7 We are not alone! 9 Million barrels per day China Domestic Consumption Domestic Production

8 Averages & Extremes Hansen, Sato, Ruedy, Perception of climate change, PNAS, Aug. 6 (2012)

9 Cumulative CO 2 emissions since Industrial Revolution About 1 Trillion Tons How much more CO 2 can we emit based on known fossil fuel reserves? About 3 Trillion Tons years Worth $10s of Trillion!!

10 The Stone Age did not end because we ran out stones Sheikh Ahmed Yamani, former Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia We transitioned to better solutions A New Industrial Revolution Nature, Vol. 488, pp (2012)

11 Technologies that lead to fundamentally new learning curves TRANSFORMATIONAL Enhance U.S. economic, energy & environmental security Ensure U.S. lead in advanced energy technologies Cost Performance Steam-powered Cugnot (1769) Benz Motorwagen (1885) Multiple shots at goal existing technology DISRUPTIVE Ford Model T (1914) Time, Scale

12 Energy Systems US Department of Energy. Report on the First Quadrennial Technology Review. (US DOE, 2011).

13 Horizontal Drilling & Hydraulic Fracturing

14 Shale Gas Extraction Coupled Chemistry, Transport, Mechanics nm pores Courtesy: Mark Zoback, Stanford

15 Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation Sunshot 2020 Wind Geothermal Coal Nuclear NGCC Distributed & Modular 5 cents/kwh Source: Sustainable Energy in America 2013 Factbook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Jan (2013)

16 Courtesy: E. J. Moniz (DOE)

17 Fully Installed Residential PV ($/W) Fully Installed Utility PV ($/W) Courtesy: E. J. Moniz (DOE)

18 Tesla Edison G G G $100B/yr lost in power outages Grid One-way flow L L L L L L L L Distributed Load

19 Cyber-Physical Security PG&E Metcalf 600kV Substation 2am, April 16, shots fired at the radiators of only energized transformers >50,000 gallons of cooling oil leaked Fiber optic & telephone cables cut 15 mins before the shootings 911 disabled Boston Marathon Bombing April 15, 2013

20 Age Expected Lifespan = 40 years Average Age = 42 years

21 Negative Load CALIFORNIA LOAD Load Ramp Rate= MW/min Duck s Belly Midnight Noon 4pm 6pm Midnight

22 Current Paradigm California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Supply-Demand Balance 24/7 Day- Ahead Hour- Ahead 15min- Ahead Electric Utility

23 Shifting Paradigm CAISO Supply-Demand Balance 24/7 Dynamic Prices Dynamic Demand & Supply Electric Utility INFORMATION FLOW Gas Utility Generator Waste Heat

24 Grid-Scale Storage (GWh Scale) $1000/kWh Capital Cost Others Levelized Cost City College New York 90Ah 12V battery Zn-MnO 2 Battery Highlights $100/kWh /kwh ASU Rechargeable Zn-Air Battery MIT $10/kWh Zn-based Battery Li-ion Flow Battery

25 Power Electronics Switches (w) Magnetics (jwl) Integrated WBG >13kV WBG SiC GaN High Flux Soft Magnets Converters >10 W, >95% Single-Chip Single Chip AC High Efficiency Capacitors (1/jwC) Reliable + fast + high energy density

26 26 Power Electronics 8000 lbs, 60 Hz Distribution Transformer Average Age: 42 years, 2 years beyond projected lifespan Silicon Carbide IGBT; 15 kv, 100 A; 50 khz from Cree Inc. Potentially 100 lbs transformer

27 Low Loss High Frequency Soft Magnets SOFT MAGNETS Loss (kw/m 3 )

28 Air Water Rail Pipeline Transportation Fuel Gasoline/Diesel Natural Gas Biofuel Electricity Trucks Light Duty Vehicles Power Train IC Engine Batteries/Electric Motor Fuel Cells Hybrids Buses Light Weighting

29 Courtesy: E. J. Moniz (DOE) 29

30 Vehicle Electrification Electric Vehicles Comparable in Range and Cost Today ARPA-E $500/kWh $250/kWh Li-air Li-S Adv Li-ion Mg-ion Zn-air Li-ion NiMH BEEST Pb-acid Practical energy density (Wh/kg) 30 30

31 POROUS Si ANODE Mn-BASED CATHODE 400 Wh/kg; C/10 80% depth of discharge Roughly $250/kWh Argonne National Lab

32 Sunlight to Fuels Electrons Reducing Equivalents Biomass Algae Chemical Catalysis Biological Catalysis Ethanol Advanced biofuels Pyrolysis oil Biodiesel Advanced biofuels Syngas CH 3 OH CH 4 Advanced fuels? Advanced fuels

33 Electrofuels (via Non-Photosynthetic Microbes) OPX Biotechnology & North Carolina State University Assimilate Reducing Equivalents Reducing equivalents: other than reduced carbon or products from Photosystems I & II H 2 S H 2 e- NH 3 Fe 2+ Fix CO 2 for Biosynthesis Pathway for carbon fixation: reverse TCA, Calvin- Benson, Wood-Ljungdahl, hydroxpropionate/hydroxybutyrate, or newly designed biochemical pathways Generate Energy Dense Liquid Fuel Fuel synthesis metabolic engineering to direct carbon flux to fuel products + numerous butanol alkanes possibilities

34 Today 80 GJ/ha-yr Plants Engineered to Replace Oil (PETRO) Future 160 $50/BOE Algae? Tobacco LBL & UC Berkeley

35 (In)Famous Predictions from the Past Radio has no future X-rays will prove to be a hoax. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible Lord Kelvin in 1890s

36 (In)Famous Predictions from the Past Man will not fly for 50 years. Wilbur Wright in 1901

37 Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. Arthur C. Clarke

38 Thank you!