CropWatch: Monitoring the food security using remote sensing. Wu Bingfang 18 September, 2013

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "CropWatch: Monitoring the food security using remote sensing. Wu Bingfang 18 September, 2013"

Rosa Beasley
5 years ago
Views:

1 CropWatch: Monitoring the food security using remote sensing Wu Bingfang 18 September, 2013

2 Monthly Wheat Prices Price hikes Droughts: Australia & Ukraine Today 2010/11 Price hikes Drought: Russia Landsat 1 Launched (1972) 1971/2 s price hike 3x Nominal wheat price in US $/Metric Ton Source: World Bank

3 Making the case for improved crop forecasts Aggregation of Wheat Production Forecasts from Main Wheat Export Countries vs. International Market Price Production Forecasts (1,000 MT) Price ($/Ton)

5 Project and Program Overview of crop monitoring LAICE( , USDA, NOAA, NASA) AGRISTTARS ( , USDA, NOAA, NASA ) System MARS (JRC,EU) Others (French, India, Canada, etc, wheat, rice, cotton ) USA (domestic: USDA/NASS ; global: USDA/FAS ) PECAD (production estimation and crop assessment division) EU (CGMS, crop growth monitoring system) FAO (GIEWS, Global Information and Early Warning System on food and agriculture) Others

6 CropWatch Overview

7 CropWatch Development Kick off in 1998 Supported by CAS,NDRC,MOST,, more than 10 projects with 50 millions input Release first bulletin in August, 1998 Improvement and development (15 Years) From manual judgment to quantitative monitoring From instant investigation to dynamic monitoring From after harvest measurement to early prediction. The crop production data can be available one month before its harvest.

8 History category monitoringcontent data processing criterion standart data standardization processing for MODIS NDVI NDWI dryland and paddyfield simple growing process Crop monitoring to monitoring condition integrative monitoring agro-meteorological monitoring data analysis quantative integrative monitoring indictor collection 2 level zoning Crop acreage 3 level zoning estimation 3 level zoning Crop yield estimation Other RS&sampling transect sampling RS&sampling transect sampling stratified two-level sampling agro-meteorological model based on planting pattern zoning agro-meteorological model based on yield zoning regressive model with RS factors crop biomass-harvest index model with RS Spatioplanting structure temporal structure of Cropping index crops grain production estimation with RS All components need several years research before putting into operational monitoring. Research Operational monitoring

9 Validation&Accuracy assessment CropWatch Components Seven components Grain Supply-Demand Balance and early-warning Crop growth Condition Drought Crop Production Prediction Grain Production Estimation Crop Planting Structure Inventory Crop condition monitoring Agri-drought monitoring Production Estimation Crop Acreage Estimation Crop yield prediction Grain production estimation Spatio-temporal structure monitoring Crop planting structure Cropping index Cropping Index Grain Supply-Demand Balance and Early-warning Multi-remote sensing data Social and economical data Field data

10 CropWatch for China Crop condition monitoring (at the scales of the whole country and province, once every ten days) Agro-meteorological condition analysis of China (once every month) Drought Monitoring of China (once every ten days) Crop Area Estimation and Yield Prediction for Winter Wheat, Early double-crop Rice, Single-crop rice, Maize, Spring Wheat, Soybean, Late double-crop rice (monthly) Grain Production Forecast (seasonally) Crop Proportion Monitoring (seasonally) Cropping Index Monitoring (yearly)

11 Crop condition monitoring (monthly) Agro-meteorological condition analysis in USA (monthly) Yield prediction CropWatch for globe Acreage change detection for main producing country Monitoring scope, 30 countries. >85% of global production

12 CrapWatch countries

13 CropWatch: Data pre-processing Auto geo-correction(up) Images before and after atmospheric correction (right)

CropWatch: Crop Condition Crop condition can be at

results Provincial level results Instant Comparison of

14 CropWatch: Crop Condition Crop condition can be at continental, country and provincial level Country level results Provincial level results Instant Comparison of NDVI at this year with previous year Crop condition map of China Crop condition map of Australia Profile Comparison of NDVI profile to last year, average and best of last 5 years Crop growth profile of arable land of China Crop growth profile of arable land for three states of Australia

15 CropWatch: Crop Condition Mid-August, 2012 Crop condition in August 2012 is worse than 2011 in the south of Russia, the center and north of Italy, the south-west of Hungary, and the south of Romania.

CropWatch: Drought Monitoring Operational

monitoring has several steps, including data

calculation, multi-day indices combination,

monitoring map of China Percent of different

16 CropWatch: Drought Monitoring Operational process of Drought Monitoring Model Drought monitoring has several steps, including data processing, daily drought indices calculation, multi-day indices combination, drought products Monitoring results Drought monitoring map of China Percent of different drought grads in China Percentages in different provinces of China

17 Drought in China Late July, 2013 Drought occurred in most of Guizhou and Hunan, and south of Chongqing

18 Crop area estimation in China Challenges: very thin or small cropping patches CropWatch use two individual sampling frame to estimate crop acreage with remote sensing

Planting proportion CropWatch use CPTP method to estimate crop acreage: Area = area_arable * R1 * R2 Where:

19 Crop area estimation Database (land-use data, field-survey data, statistical data, etc.) transect sampling ge tion Crop Planting Stratification full coverage Crop type proportion Crop acreage Planting proportion CropWatch use CPTP method to estimate crop acreage: Area = area_arable * R1 * R2 Where: Area: crop area area_arable: area of arable land R1: planted proportion on arable land R2: percentage of certain crop type on planted arable land

20 Crop area estimation in China Crop type proportion need for intensive field survey GVG surveying system GPS receiver Video camera GIS analysis system GVG sampling routes GIS VIDIO GPS Sampling, interpretation and CTP calculation

Crop area estimation in China Stratification First : climate zoning 11 areas Second: Planting Structure 44 regions Third:Farming density 102 polygons

21 Crop area estimation in China Stratification First : climate zoning 11 areas Second: Planting Structure 44 regions Third:Farming density 102 polygons Sampling line in mainland of China All the main crop regions of China are stratified into 102 strata at the 3rd level with similar cultivation characteristics

22 Crop area estimation in China CTP inventory survey in 363 counties for Winter Wheat, 2010

23 Crop area estimation in China Flow chart of crop planting proportion estimation

24 Crop area estimation in China Crop planting proportion estimation with HJ data HJ-1 for Winter wheat, 2013 Cropped and non-cropped areas non-cropped

25 CPTP Method Relative erroe of crop acreage estimation is less than 5%. The method makes fully use of the benefits of remote sensing. CPP is obtained by segmenting cropped and non-cropped areas CTP is acquired by ground survey with the GVG instrument and transect sampling. The method meets the time requirement of operational dominant crop acreage estimation at large areas. The method is also affordable. This method can be used both for large areas as well as for smaller regions. But the method can only be used in China.

Monitoring result CI map Inter-annual variation map Region Distinctive feature selection HANTS model resconstructed

26 Crop area estimation without field support Expert knowledge with multi-resolution data Landsat Time series MODIS NDVI Expert knowledge S - G Landsat derived crop map Feature extraction Crop map 时间序列 NDVI Time series RS data Monitoring result CI map Inter-annual variation map Region Distinctive feature selection HANTS model resconstructed Peak 冬小麦识别特征 Extraction model Crop index monitoring system CI map Comparison & analyzing model Sp stat m 小麦种植区估算冬小麦种植面积非小麦种植区

Current data Achieved data Crop area estimation without field

系统监测结果复种指数 Training sample Time series NDVI S-G Smoother

database Training for decision tree Time series NDVI S-G

27 Current data Achieved data Crop area estimation without field support Supervised classifier using decision tree 时间序列遥感数据系统监测结果复种指数 Training sample Time series NDVI S-G Smoother Smoothed NDVI HANTS 模块 S-G 平滑重构数据复种指数遥感监测系 Crop phenology database Training for decision tree Time series NDVI S-G smoother 时间序列遥感数据系统监测结果 HANTS 重构数据 S-G 模块平滑 Crop distribution map 复种指数空峰复取数复种指数遥感监测系统

28 Crop area estimation without field support Crop profile feature Time Time series NDVI RS data CI map Separate wheat and others Similarity calculation The similarity Regional CI between NDVI profile of each pixel and standard profile is Spatil determined based on the shape feature of the profile in order to separate wheat and other crops. Comparison & aalyzng Wheat area in 2012 decreased by 9.02% compared with that in 2011.

29 CropWatch: Crop Yield CropWatch estimate biomass and harvest index and use the equation: Yield = biomass * Harvest index to estimate crop yield Crop biomass monitoring process Crop harvest index monitoring process

30 Biomass Harvest index Yield=Biomass*Harvest index

31 CropWatch: Crop Production System for crop production estimation Crop productions for different provinces in China Result

32 Grain production estimation Grain production was estimated by the production of last year and the variation: Gp T =Gp L *(1+V A )* (1+V y ) Where: Gp T is the grain production of this year; Gp L is the grain production of last year; V A is variation in grain crop planting area; V Y is variation in grain yield (1+V A )=(1+V c )* (1+V g ) Where : V c is variation in crop planting proportion V g is variation in grain crops proportion These two factors come from GVG system

33 Grain production estimation Interface of grain production component

34 CropWatch: Cropping index Process of cropping index estimation Time series RS data Monitoring result CI map Inter-annual variation map Regional CI HANTS model resconstructed Peak Extraction model CI map Comparison & analyzing model Spatial statistics model Crop index monitoring system Four steps: Prepare the time series NDVI data Reconstruct the NDVI profile at the pixel scale Count the number of peaks in all pixels Spatial statistical for average cropping index in a region

35 CropWatch Cropping Index None crop Single Doubl e Tripl e Cropping Index map in 2011 Regional Cropping Index

36 CropWatch: Validation & Accuracy Evaluation

37 Latest CropWatch Monitoring-China Crop condition monitoring Late Aug., 2013

38 Latest CropWatch Monitoring-China Drought monitoring Late July, 2013 Drought monitoring Late Aug., 2013

39 Latest CropWatch Monitoring-Global Late Aug., 2013 North America Europe South America South Asia Southeast Asia

40 Latest CropWatch Monitoring-Global Global grain supply situation in 2012

41 CropWatch bulletin CropWatch bulletin were released every month from April to October since 2001

42 Release on Website

Clients of CropWatch The monitoring result was delivered to: State Council: E-government Ministry of Agriculture State Grain Administration State Development and Reform

43 Clients of CropWatch The monitoring result was delivered to: State Council: E-government Ministry of Agriculture State Grain Administration State Development and Reform Commission Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Ministry of Civil Affairs National Bureau of Statistics of China National Disaster Reduction Center of China Etc.

and Drought Relief Headquarters Ministry of Civil Affairs National Bureau of Statistics of China National Disaster

44 Customization and technical services Information Center of MWR Disaster relief center of MCA State Council: E-government Ministry of Agriculture State Grain Administration State Development and Reform Commission Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Ministry of Civil Affairs National Bureau of Statistics of China National Disaster Reduction Center of China Etc. Chinagrain web Capacity building for Pakistan Negotiating with Kenya Cooperation with Thailand

Customization and technical services Field-scale crop monitoring to support

小麦生长过程曲线 1 1 0.8 0.8 植 0.6 被指 0.4 数植 0.6 被指 0.4 数 0.2 0.

5 5 5 Jun Jul Aug Sep 5 Oct 1 大豆生长过程曲线 1 玉米生长过程曲线 0.8 植 0.6 被指 0.4 数 0.8 植 0.6 被指 0.4 数 0.2 0.

45 Customization and technical services Field-scale crop monitoring to support precision agriculture Hongxing Farm &Shuangshan Farm, Heilong Jiang 全场作物生长过程曲线小麦生长过程曲线植 0.6 被指 0.4 数植 0.6 被指 0.4 数 Apr 5 May 5 Jun Jul Aug Sep 5 Oct 0 5 Apr 5 May Jun Jul Aug Sep 5 Oct 1 大豆生长过程曲线 1 玉米生长过程曲线 0.8 植 0.6 被指 0.4 数 0.8 植 0.6 被指 0.4 数 Apr 5 May 5 Jun 5 Jul 5 Aug 5 Sep 5 Oct 0 5 Apr 5 May 5 Jun 5 Jul 5 Aug 5 Sep 5 Oct

46 CropWatch at crucial moment

47 Flood in 1998 CropWatch at crucial moment monitoring result that the grain production was only slightly influenced by the flood

48 CropWatch at crucial moment Drought in the Southwest of China in 2006 about 60-70% of Chongqing and 40-50% of Sichuan is suffering from the drought Grain production of Chongqing and Sichuan will reduce 27% and 21% due to the drought

CropWatch at crucial moment Crops caught by snow disaster in early 2008 MODIS data and BJ-1 CCD (30m) images used Totally 6447 10K Mu crops

49 CropWatch at crucial moment Crops caught by snow disaster in early 2008 MODIS data and BJ-1 CCD (30m) images used Totally K Mu crops damaged Winter wheat, seed rape are main damaged in Guizhou and Hubei province. Province area(10k Mu) Jiangxi 1343 Hubei 2823 Hunan 1436 Guizhou 845

CropWatch at crucial moment Drought in the North of China in 2008-2009

50 CropWatch at crucial moment Drought in the North of China in Released 4 bulletins about the sever drought happened in winter wheat producing area. By experimental model based on drought area and duration, Winter wheat production of China will suffer a decrease of 3.4% due to the drought.

CropWatch at crucial moment Draught in Southwest China, 2010 1) Drought monitoring using HJ- 1 CCD and IRS derived LST and NDVI; 2) Water resource

51 CropWatch at crucial moment Draught in Southwest China, ) Drought monitoring using HJ- 1 CCD and IRS derived LST and NDVI; 2) Water resource assessment by water area comparison sampled within the sever drought region; 3) Affects of the drought to crops were evaluated, there would be a damage of 830 ktons

52 CropWatch at crucial moment Drought in Mekong river basin in 2010

CropWatch at crucial moment Draught in North China, 2011 (1) The drought was mainly in 6 provinces, which are Heibei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong and Henan; an map was attached to the mail; (2)

53 CropWatch at crucial moment Draught in North China, 2011 (1) The drought was mainly in 6 provinces, which are Heibei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong and Henan; an map was attached to the mail; (2) The drought situation alleviated slightly compare to last monitoring result; the area suffer form the drought has not decreased, yet the drought degree has decreased; (3) Totally about 40% of winter wheat in the 6 provinces is suffering from drought; (4) An slight yield reduction (3-4%) is estimated in the 6 province under the current situation;

analysis New indicators: global environmental indicators,

54 CropWatch Outlook Incorporate new sensors, especially Chinese sensors More synthetical perspective Three levels analysis New indicators: global environmental indicators, fallow land, irrigated or rainfed area, Global food security early warning

55 With Cloud platform CropWtach Outlook Data preprocessing and operation based on super computer Demand oriented Webservice Cropwatch response automatically

56 CropWatch Features Remote sensing data are main data used Independent without using statistic data Automatic processing, only 3 full time staff Validation and uncertainty analysis carried out since Quality control schemas had been introduced Continuous operation from 1998 Crucial information services to the central government

CropWatch Introduction and Crop Area Estimation

CropWatch Introduction and Crop Area Estimation Bingfang Wu wubf@irsa.ac.cn Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth (RADI) Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) 4 scales Global (60 CPSZs) 6 MPZs 31 key